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Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
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I think the B1G is the bigger threat to the ACC.

No conference has more money & they would be very attractive on the academic side to schools like UVA, UNC and GATech.
 

CarolinaBuff

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Totally agree with Duff that no way I could see UNC joining the SEC. I'm sure the SEC would love to get into NC but the only realistic candidate would be NC State. However I think it would take some sort of fracture in the ACC before NCSU would leave.

NC and VA are the only traditional southern states that the SEC isn't in and VT would be the hands down choice in VA but they're not leaving the ACC given how UVA campaigned to get them in there.
 

onealcd

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I think the B1G is the bigger threat to the ACC.

No conference has more money & they would be very attractive on the academic side to schools like UVA, UNC and GATech.
True. I just think they have their eyes on taking the St. Louis and Kansas City markets from the sec and big 12.
 

CarolinaBuff

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this is all fan speculation. everyone was shocked by the Notre Dame deal in 2012, and ACC fans are gun shy of making predictions. that being said, here's my ranking by perceived liklihood, assuming ND joins the ACC as a full member:
  • WVU: geographic makes sense, established rivalries w/ Pitt and Tech. however, nobody seems to believe that UVA, UNC or Duke would allow WVU to join (common posts: "really? do you honestly believe that the school that Thomas Jefferson founded would let the couch burners join?!?!?!"). While some argue that Louisville is a counter example, I don't see it that way -- I think Louisville is currently viewed as a negative by the ACC. WVU is my second choice.
  • Penn State: everyone is hoping that ND would be the carrot that might bring PSU over. Paterno often spoke of a desire to form a "power conference" that was East Coast based and reportedly never wanted to join the B1G -- a lot of fans are hoping that this attitude persists at PSU but I think that's dreaming. Honestly, I think losing Maryland to the B1G hurt the ACC here. PSU would be my top choice if I got to be the picker. The B1G has no grant of rights, which in a sense makes them the most poachable.
  • UConn. I can argue both sides of this. If the ACC isn't going to jettison Syracuse and BC, then it makes sense to bring in UConn. OTOH, nobody in that area gives a care about CFB and I struggle to advocate for further expansion into a region with no fan support.
  • Cincy. I'm not a fan, but they're trying hard.
  • Navy. helps win back part of the WMA market we lost w/ Mary's departure
  • Texas. when the XII was rumored to be on the brink of financial failure, discussions were rumored to be taking place between UT and the ACC. If a bunch of the XII schools cannot survive the loss of revenue from CV19, this could get restarted, especially if the B1G isn't showing interest.
  • other mentions with (IMO) even lower probability:
    • Central Florida, South Florida -- we already have two FL schools
    • Memphis -- don't think this is as strong as Cincy or UConn and it doesn't make sense for the ACC to encroach on established SEC territory where we have no current foothold
    • Tulane, Toronto -- just don't make sense for the ACC
    • Maryland -- why would they come back? money trumps history.
A few years ago it seemed like UConn was the obvious choice but with their football program seemingly headed toward irrelevance I don't think they're a realistic candidate anymore.
 

MtnBuff

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Of the schools that could potentially be in play there are two that everybody wants, ND and Texas.

Yes we have gone over the negatives of Texas here many times but all a conference has to do is look at the ability of both schools to generate revenue and they get the invite.

Notre Dame is the most truly national program in the country. They bring the TV ratings and thus the money. Texas is the dominant program in Texas and can deliver both regional and national ratings. Any conference that adds either or both is able to demand more money from the networks.

After those two everyone else is regional and none provide the kind of value. The Penn State idea is one I hadn't heard but is interesting. Hard to give up B1G money and I also wonder if the ACC wouldn't hesitate a little due to the scandal. I know that some other ACC schools wouldn't be entirely happy with WVU joining but they are the logical choice geographically and more important financially.

If Texas leaves the B12 it's hard to see Oklahoma staying. With those two gone the conference has a hard time surviving as a P level conference.

Don't see any other P5 conferences wanting Iowa State which is the second school in a small and declining TV market. Would also see one of the Kansas schools taking a fall. Also would see a shake out among the Texas schools not named UT or aTm.

Almost wonder if the top level, currently P5, wouldn't end up dropping to something around 40-45 schools consisting of those willing and able to play the money game at the level required.

If this were to happen I think Colorado should be one of those schools but question if they would be.
 

Buffnik

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True. I just think they have their eyes on taking the St. Louis and Kansas City markets from the sec and big 12.
I agree. There have been comments that it was a mistake to go Rutgers/Maryland instead of Kansas/Missouri last time. I think they want to revisit that with KU & Mizzou. They'll also never stop coveting Notre Dame. Something else to consider is that 16 teams is what's in our heads as fans but the B1G would not put that limit on themselves. If they thought it made sense to go to 20 teams, they would do so and create what would effectively be 2 full 10-member football conferences that played a championship game.
 

onealcd

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I agree. There have been comments that it was a mistake to go Rutgers/Maryland instead of Kansas/Missouri last time. I think they want to revisit that with KU & Mizzou. They'll also never stop coveting Notre Dame. Something else to consider is that 16 teams is what's in our heads as fans but the B1G would not put that limit on themselves. If they thought it made sense to go to 20 teams, they would do so and create what would effectively be 2 full 10-member football conferences that played a championship game.
Yeah I guess. That just seems so unnecessary to me. I think the big 10 has done a great job sticking to their roots and keeping the geography in tact (as much as you can) so I just don’t see the reason to go to 20. If anything they should just go to 16 with 11 conference games and one OOC game per year. Why be in a conference where you don’t play the majority of teams in the other division? (I’m talking to you SEC).

Kansas and mizzou just make a ton of sense for the big from a recruiting standpoint, from a competitive balance standpoint (I think Mizzou is/should be a good football program that just doesn’t fit in the sec) and from the common sense standpoint.

I do think notre dame would fit but the bigger question becomes who would come with them and then the ACC is sort of stuck at 15 members with wear Virginia.
 

MtnBuff

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I agree. There have been comments that it was a mistake to go Rutgers/Maryland instead of Kansas/Missouri last time. I think they want to revisit that with KU & Mizzou. They'll also never stop coveting Notre Dame. Something else to consider is that 16 teams is what's in our heads as fans but the B1G would not put that limit on themselves. If they thought it made sense to go to 20 teams, they would do so and create what would effectively be 2 full 10-member football conferences that played a championship game.
Could we eventually see a 20 team B1G and a 20 team (or two 10 team) conference(s) that end in a playoff and NC. I'd hate to see it but I think that 20-30 years from now college football is going to look very different than it does now, and it may not take 20 years for complete change to happen.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
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Could we eventually see a 20 team B1G and a 20 team (or two 10 team) conference(s) that end in a playoff and NC. I'd hate to see it but I think that 20-30 years from now college football is going to look very different than it does now, and it may not take 20 years for complete change to happen.
Yep. Things will change a lot in the next 30 years just as they did in the last 30 years.

I think the biggest screw up with how CFB re-aligned in the past was with how the Eastern Independents ended up all over the place. Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pitt, Penn State, Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut and Rutgers would have made for a hell of a conference.
 

MtnBuff

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Yep. Things will change a lot in the next 30 years just as they did in the last 30 years.

I think the biggest screw up with how CFB re-aligned in the past was with how the Eastern Independents ended up all over the place. Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pitt, Penn State, Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut and Rutgers would have made for a hell of a conference.
I agree.

I though one of the big appeals to college football was the regional nature of it. When you heard a conference name you immediately associated it with a specific part of the country. When teams played conference games they were against teams from neighboring states.

At the end of the year the bowl games, especially the big ones, weren't just a game they were a battle between regions for bragging rights.

If (when) we see a re-alignment of teams in terms of level with a smaller number of teams in the top division we may see a return of the regional nature for the remaining teams as they re-organize.
 

CarolinaBuff

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Yep. Things will change a lot in the next 30 years just as they did in the last 30 years.

I think the biggest screw up with how CFB re-aligned in the past was with how the Eastern Independents ended up all over the place. Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pitt, Penn State, Syracuse, Boston College, Connecticut and Rutgers would have made for a hell of a conference.
Most of these teams were in the Big East conference and I always thought that if the Big East could have lured PSU they may have survived as a football conference
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
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Most of these teams were in the Big East conference and I always thought that if the Big East could have lured PSU they may have survived as a football conference
iirc, Penn State was leading the charge to form a conference but didn't want any basketball-only schools. They were right.

Also of note, back then Holy Cross was a regional hoops power and would have been in a basketball conference with Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown, etc.
 

patebuff

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Seems to fit with their teams but could be a reach too lol I just feel bad for that program because they support the hell out of that school
Maybe they’d want a pair for Iowa? I don’t think they have a chance anyways due to academics. Although ****braska is in that conference.

ISU does have a good following though. I was impressed with their presence at the last ncaa tournament in Denver. Their fans were everywhere
 

onealcd

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Maybe they’d want a pair for Iowa? I don’t think they have a chance anyways due to academics. Although ****braska is in that conference.

ISU does have a good following though. I was impressed with their presence at the last ncaa tournament in Denver. Their fans were everywhere
I thought Iowa State was a pretty decent school but maybe I’m wrong. They are aau and everything right? But yes I was thinking a pair with Iowa in the footprint.
 

SpacemanSpiff

Fairways and greens
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Maybe they’d want a pair for Iowa? I don’t think they have a chance anyways due to academics. Although ****braska is in that conference.

ISU does have a good following though. I was impressed with their presence at the last ncaa tournament in Denver. Their fans were everywhere
Not sure about the rest of the school but they have a very good engineering school, especially for Aero Engineering. I work with a ton of very smart Cyclones.
 

MtnBuff

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ISU wouldn’t add anything media wise that the Big Ten doesn’t already get with Iowa.
This is the whole issue. Iowa isn't that big a media market to start with and Iowa get most of the attention.

There fans are very loyal and supportive but there aren't enough of them to justify giving them a media share.

I expect when the shake out happens that Iowa State will be on the outside looking in.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
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It’s cute that some of you still think geography, cultural fit, natural rivalries, tradition and prestige are bigger factors than $$$$$$.

Lone Star said it best: “We aren’t just doing this for money. We’re doing it for a sh!tload of money!”
More specifically, the money will be made from selling quality content, not from controlling media markets. Regional geography won't matter as much as quality product in the cord cutting era.
 
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