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Colorado Basketball Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 5 seasons

jgisland

jgisland

Club Member
Colorado Basketball Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 6 seasons

Confused about the terminology? Check out the AllBuffs.com Intro to APBRmetrics (or "How to Become a Stat Nerd").

I have calculated Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 6 seasons. I will update this info as the season goes on for the 2012/2013 season. **updated for the 12/13 season through the Arizona game P12 tournament game**

Individual Efficiency Rating (IER) - is a stat used to evaluate individual game performances. This stat was created by Jerry Krause, current Director of Operations for Gonzaga. The formula and more info about it can be found here. Letter grades are associated with the number, so each player is graded on each game. This is the evaluation method that CU and Coach Boyle use to evaluate players.

Win Shares - this is a method made popular by Bill James initially for baseball, it has now been adopted for basketball as well. In this method 1 win share is equal to 1 team win, you will see that the team win shares do not exactly add up to the total number of team wins, but it does come very close. (You will see that for the 06/07 season the biggest dispersion, this is due to CU having one of the worst defenses in the country.) Win Shares formula and further explanation can be found here. In my opinion Win Shares does a pretty nice job of capturing who is to credit (or blame) for wins and losses, it takes into account defensive stats which many advanced stats don't do. You will see offensive, defensive and total win shares. This is probably the best stat at capturing what is actually happening.

Adjusted +/- is a very new stat, this was introduced by Nathan Walker last week in the 2011/2012 Basketball Prospectus. Nathan Walker has a blog Basketball Distribution that does a nice job of capturing and analyzing College Basketball using "advanced stats." It his article, "The Statistical Holy Grail:Combining Usage and Efficiency" he does a nice take on +/-, he actually accounts for offensive efficiency with % of possessions used and it is adjusted for strength of schedule. Running the number for the last 5 years this adjusted +/- actually passes the eye test, as discussed in this thread I talk a little more about my issues with +/-, but this seems to actually do a nice job capturing what is actually going on. **Note, this number does not take into account any defensive numbers, it only takes into account offensive numbers**

Numbers for this data was sourced from kenpom.com, statsheet.com and sports-reference.com

Current Win Shares and Adjusted +/-.




Win Shares

2013/2014Josh ScottSpencer DinWiddieWesley GordonXavier JohnsonAskia BookerDustin ThomasJaron HopkinsTre'Shaun FletcherBrett BradyKevin NelsonXavier TaltonGeorge KingEli StalzerBeau GambleBen MillsTotals
Off Win Share1.92.20.30.60.90.10.30.20.00.00.20.1-0.100.16.8
Def Win Share10.90.70.70.80.30.40.30.00.00.40.30.000.15.9
Total Win Share33.11.01.31.70.40.70.50.10.10.60.40.000.213.1




Adjusted +/-

2013-2014sos adj0.5807
PlayerOrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Spencer Dinwiddie131.4020.806.897.475.9479.60
Askia Booker106.3025.002.702.701.9170.50
Josh Scott129.9019.906.016.014.4974.60
Dustin Thomas95.0020.90-1.04-1.04-0.3230.80
Jaron Hopkins101.4017.20-0.54-0.54-0.2341.80
George King89.8023.90-1.88-1.88-0.2312.50
Wesley Gordon99.5017.10-0.89-0.89-0.4955.40
Xavier Johnson106.1019.300.910.910.5459.80
Xavier Talton101.9016.00-0.76-0.76-0.2836.40
Tre'Shaun Fletcher104.5018.400.340.340.0823.70





Historical Win Shares

Win Shares
2012/2013Spencer DinWiddieAskia BookerAndre RobersonJosh ScottXavier JohnsonSabatino ChenJeremy AdamsXavier TaltonShane Harris-TunksBen MillsTotals
Off Win Share3.43-0.421.211.201.650.210.260.21-0.130.037.66
Def Win Share2.061.444.011.741.391.030.370.250.430.0712.78
Total Win Share5.491.025.222.943.041.240.620.460.300.1020.43



2011/2012Carlon BrownAndre RobersonAustin DufaultSpencer DinwiddieAskia BookerNate TomlinsonShane Harris-TunksJeremy AdamsSabatino ChenShannon SharpeDamiene CainTrey EckloffTotals
Off Win Share1.832.281.902.240.961.000.19-0.200.340.080.080.0110.70
Def Win Share1.484.321.311.390.971.110.830.340.480.190.090.0312.55
Total Win Share3.316.603.213.631.932.111.020.140.820.270.170.0523.25

2010/2011BurksHigginsKnutsonRelphordeRobersonDefaultTomlinsonSharpeEckloffMillsConeyBeckleyTotals
Off Win Share3.992.523.451.601.611.050.910.090.04-0.090.05-0.0915.11
Def Win Share1.571.180.641.082.311.180.640.520.100.130.100.009.45
Total Win Share5.563.694.092.673.922.241.540.610.150.030.15-0.0924.56
2009/2010HigginsBurksRelphordeThorseDufaultTomlinsonCrawfordKnutsonHornbuckleHarris-TunksEckloffBeckleyTotals
Off Win Share3.873.500.791.620.581.350.680.340.200.26-0.170.0213.04
Def Win Share0.230.220.170.100.150.130.090.050.060.120.020.001.35
Total Win Share4.103.720.971.720.731.490.770.390.250.38-0.150.0214.38
2008/2009HigginsThorneDufaultTomlinsonJackson-WilsonCrawfordKnutsonEckloffKelleyVealConeyZehnderTotals
Off Win Share3.822.610.471.480.860.480.110.040.290.03-0.360.029.85
Def Win Share0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.02
Total Win Share3.822.610.471.480.870.490.110.040.290.03-0.360.029.86
2007/2008RobyHallHigginsSilasJackson-WilsonKnutsonThorneKing-StocktonPattersonConeyBeckleyZehnderTotals
Off Win Share3.442.621.350.460.120.830.380.10-0.330.130.070.079.22
Def Win Share0.000.700.590.310.600.150.160.620.090.020.030.003.28
Total Win Share3.443.321.940.770.710.970.540.72-0.230.150.100.0712.49
2006/2007RobyColemanSilasJackson-WilsonWilliamsBayKing-StocktonThorneKowalIngePerkowskiVanTotals
Off Win Share0.461.720.881.010.690.39-0.33-0.52-0.07-0.01-0.04-0.144.05
Def Win Share0.170.210.110.200.150.060.150.050.040.010.000.011.16
Total Win Share0.631.940.991.210.850.45-0.18-0.47-0.040.00-0.03-0.135.22

Historical IER

2011/2012
PlayerFt.LewisWichita St.MarylandW. MichiganAir ForceGeorgiaCSUFresno StWyomingCal St - BTex SoNOUtahUWWSUCALStanfordASUArizonaUSCUCLAOSUOregonArizonaASUUtahStanfordCalOregonOregon St.
Nate TomlinsonA-DC+A+A+FBA+DDA+B+DA+A+FC+B+C+A+DB-CB-B+DDB+FB-
Andre RobersonA+CA+CA+A+DA+C+A-A+A+A+A+CA-A+A+FA+A+A+A+A+CA+A+A+A-A+
Spencer DinWiddieC+A+FA+DA+B-B-A+B+A+A+A+BFFB+A+A+A+A+B+B-B-A+A+FC+C+D
Austin DufaultA+A+A+A+B-FBCFA+A+A+BB+B+C+A+BC+B+FA+CB-A-C+FDB-C+
Carlon BrownDB+CAB-B-DDC+A+A+A+A+C+A+C+A+A+B-A-FCDDC+FDFA+B
Askia BookerC+A+B-C+CA+DFDC+A+A+BB+B+FFDC+A-A+A+BFCDC+DDA+
Jeremy AdamsDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPFC+BFFBDA+B+FFFA-FCFA+FB-DDFA+DF
Shane Harris-TunksFDBC+DDC+B+C+FB-B-DB-DCFDA+FC+DDFDFFA+A+F
Sabatino ChenBA+B+DFB-FFB-AA+A+CA-A+FDFA+FFCFFA+A+DFFA+
Damiene CainDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPCC+DNPDNPDNPFB-FFDN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Shannon SharpeDFFFFDNPDNPA+DNPDNPA+A+A+FDNPDNPDNPFDNPDDNPDDNPDNPDNPDNPCDNPDNPF
Ben MillsDDNPDNPFDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPB-B-DDNPDNPDNPDNPFDNPDNPDNPB-DNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPA+
Beau WebbDNPFDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPBBA+DNPDNPDNPDNPFDNPDNPDNPFDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNP
Trey EckloffA+DNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPA+A+DFDNPDNPDNPFDNPFDNPFFDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNP


Historical Adjusted +/-

2012-2013sos adj0.7163
PlayerOrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Spencer Dinwiddie116.6024.005.065.774.6580.50
Askia Booker92.8024.60-1.01-0.29-0.2378.60
Andre Roberson99.8020.40-0.100.620.4876.80
Josh Scott111.3020.402.353.071.9964.90
Xavier Johnson101.2021.000.351.070.6258.30
Sabateno Chen99.1012.70-1.91-1.20-0.7159.00
Shane Harris Tunks69.5015.00-5.71-4.99-1.0621.30
Xavier Talton88.9013.70-3.01-2.29-0.4017.50
Jeremy Adams97.1015.80-1.55-0.84-0.1922.80
Eli Stalzer74.9013.70-4.81-4.09-0.7317.90



2011/2012

sos adj-0.46
PlayerYROrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Nate TomlinsonSr99.912.8-1.80-2.25-1.6773.9
Carlon BrownSr102.424.61.541.090.7771.1
Austin DufaultSr107.721.21.851.390.9467.5
Andre RobersonSo108.721.92.311.851.3975.2
Spencer DinWiddieFr11119.41.921.471.0068.4
Jeremy AdamsSo75.118.6-5.20-5.66-1.2021.2
Askia BookerFr96.525.10.07-0.39-0.2052.2
Shane Harris-TunksSo78.417.3-4.52-4.97-1.5931.9
Sabatino ChenSo99.212.8-1.88-2.34-0.5623.9
Shannon SharpeSo58.918-8.11-8.57-0.849.8
Ben MillsSo79.622.9-4.47-4.93-0.081.7
Beau WebbFr187.27.51.410.950.021.8
Trey EckloffSr84.220-3.43-3.89-0.092.2
Damien CainFr62.515.1-6.75-7.20-0.547.5


2010-2011
sos adj-0.270.27
PlayerYROrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
BurksSo115.7032.208.328.596.6777.72
HigginsSr110.3024.803.723.993.1779.61
RelphordeSr103.0022.001.011.280.8969.58
KnutsonSr131.2016.203.984.252.8266.38
RobersonFr118.3016.301.962.231.2355.18
DufaultJr115.9015.001.021.290.7155.05
SharpeSo97.3012.20-2.22-1.95-0.6332.44
TomlinsonJr108.3010.10-1.71-1.44-0.6544.69

2009-2010
sos adj-1.061.06
PlayerYROrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Higgins112.5026.805.086.145.0982.90
Burks116.4026.806.227.285.2972.60
Relphorde94.0025.00-0.630.430.2864.90
Thorne110.5017.801.252.311.1650.50
Crawford106.2016.800.171.220.3528.70
Tomlinson106.6013.70-0.730.330.2267.60
Dufult106.2014.30-0.600.460.2453.30
Harris-Tunks67.3012.90-5.64-4.58-1.2026.20
Knutson108.4014.80-0.130.930.2223.40
Hornbuckle101.6012.90-1.57-0.52-0.1121.90

2008-2009
sos adj-0.500.50
PlayerYROrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Higgins106.7026.403.253.753.4291.30
Crawford103.4022.301.191.680.4828.30
Thorne103.6019.900.581.080.8982.50
Dufault89.0018.30-2.58-2.09-1.5875.90
Tomlinson92.8016.10-2.18-1.68-1.2675.00
Jackson-Wilson92.8019.40-1.72-1.23-0.6250.80
Knutson88.5017.60-2.74-2.24-0.8537.90
Eckloff75.2018.90-5.21-4.71-0.9921.00
Coney66.1012.10-5.62-5.13-0.8316.10

2007-2008
sos adj-1.121.12
PlayerYROrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Roby100.9029.102.223.342.8886.00
Hall107.5022.102.093.223.0093.20
Silas91.6022.50-1.59-0.46-0.2452.50
Jackson-Wilson89.3020.00-2.37-1.25-0.5947.40
Higgins96.4016.60-1.51-0.39-0.3383.30
Knutson103.7014.70-0.830.290.1345.30
King-Stockton87.2012.30-3.32-2.20-0.9041.10
Thorne96.9014.80-1.77-0.65-0.2233.60

2006-2007
sos adj-0.600.60
PlayerYROrtg% PossOff PMAdj Off P/M per 100 possTotal Value per 40 min% Min Played
Roby93.2029.80-0.16-0.10-0.0880.30
Coleman101.5022.200.710.430.3172.40
Silas95.5021.80-0.77-0.46-0.3268.10
Jackson-Wilson100.0019.80-0.19-0.11-0.0758.00
Bay89.0017.60-2.65-1.59-0.8653.80
Williams98.5019.00-0.67-0.40-0.2153.50
King-Stockton82.4014.30-3.84-2.31-1.0846.80
Thorne69.6014.30-5.58-3.36-1.1534.10
Kowal79.607.20-4.02-2.42-0.5121.20
 
Last edited:
This is unreal and deserves a sticky and lots of rep.

Great work.
 
Great stuff, jgisland.

What I'm getting from this is mostly a statistical representation of just what a special offensive player Alec Burks was for us.

Nate needs to make a jump as a senior after being on the same level for 3 years. Austin needs to make a big senior jump like Levi did. Roberson needs to make a year-to-year progression. Carlon Brown needs to replace Higgins' production. The rest of the new guys and returning players need to have a positive impact.

I think this is all realistic. Even likely.

Put it all together and we make up for everyone but Alec.

How large a dent we are able to make in Alec's production will decide whether this is a winning season or not.
 
Buffnik said:
Great stuff, jgisland.

What I'm getting from this is mostly a statistical representation of just what a special offensive player Alec Burks was for us.

Nate needs to make a jump as a senior after being on the same level for 3 years. Austin needs to make a big senior jump like Levi did. Roberson needs to make a year-to-year progression. Carlon Brown needs to replace Higgins' production. The rest of the new guys and returning players need to have a positive impact.

I think this is all realistic. Even likely.

Put it all together and we make up for everyone but Alec.

How large a dent we are able to make in Alec's production will decide whether this is a winning season or not.
Click to expand...

I think you meant Roberson above rather than Relphorde. I agree with your assessment Buffnik, I hadn't really got a chance to analyze the data, spent so much time compiling it, but a couple of thing stood out to me. Dufault had a pretty nice season last year and I hope he does continues to progress. Tomlinson doesn't do much from a statistical perspective. Not enough can be said about Roberson last year, he was a freaking monster on D, so good that he surprisingly had more total Win Shares than Higgins did last year. Hopefully he keeps it up on the D side of the ball and develops and is efficient on O.

Random non-connected thoughts:

the 06/07 season was ugly, ugly, ugly.

Burks was so much more of an offensive talent than Roby was. Higgins and Roby are a better comparison of offensive talent, I hope Higgins gets a shot in the "league" if they ever play again.

Somebody is going to have to step up and replace Relphorde, he was a productive role player last year.
 
Fixed it. I can't tell you how much I'm loving this, jgisland.

And, yeah, the numbers really tell the story of the difference between a Lottery pick and a 2nd round talent.
 
so the more I think about these stats the more I think it measures a player in a one on one or a man situation.
 
win shares has been updated for the 2011/12 season for the fort lewis game. adjusted +/- will be updated when the data become available in early December.
 
jgisland said:
win shares has been updated for the 2011/12 season for the fort lewis game. adjusted +/- will be updated when the data become available in early December.
Click to expand...

the offensive numbers for Dre don't seem accurate.
 
tante said:
the offensive numbers for Dre don't seem accurate.
Click to expand...

just doubled checked them, they are correct. he shot 44% from the field, 33% from 3 and only had 1 assist. Efficiency on offense has a big play in Win Shares, (hence why high offensive usage guys with low effiency look so poor in win shares, think melo/iverson). Dre wasn't terribly efficient on the offensive side of the Fort Lewis game.
 
tante said:
which is strange because his defense was **** and his offense was pretty good. go figure.
Click to expand...

I think you've got to give Dre credit for taking Ft Lewis' best offensive player, Matt Morris, out of the game. He didn't score a field goal.
 
Buffnik said:
I think you've got to give Dre credit for taking Ft Lewis' best offensive player, Matt Morris, out of the game. He didn't score a field goal.
Click to expand...

this is a problem with win shares, it doesn't actually account for "playing good defense." it is very difficult to quantify holding your opponent to zero field goals, getting a hand in a guys face, staying in front of your guy or boxing out so a teammate can get a rebound.

so a guy like sharpe for example is probably underrated on defensive win shares, as he doesn't get a lot of boards or blocks but plays pretty good actual d. roberson could for example get lit up by his guy but get 1/3 of cu's boards a block or 2 and look statistically pretty good in def win shares.

all that being said, win shares is the best overall stat we have.
 
Win Shares have been updated through the Wichita State game. Poor offensive efg% and poor rebounding really brought these number down this week. Where the win against Fort Lewis was statistically worth +1.3 wins, this loss was worth -1.5.
 
Nate led the team in minutes played, but his win share is below both Shane and Chen. Booker really needs to step up and start taking his minutes.
 
Buffnik said:
Nate led the team in minutes played, but his win share is below both Shane and Chen. Booker really needs to step up and start taking his minutes.
Click to expand...

While I agree with that, I also have a hard time believing that Nate will play that poorly again this season. Even the people who aren't Nate fans have to admit that he was uncharacteristically bad yesterday.
 
Goose said:
While I agree with that, I also have a hard time believing that Nate will play that poorly again this season. Even the people who aren't Nate fans have to admit that he was uncharacteristically bad yesterday.
Click to expand...

Actually, I thought he was protypically nate. Your man crush on him gets more confusing every time he steps on the court.
 
No crush. He's an average PG. Nothing more, nothing less.

And I knew that comment would draw you out.
 
jgisland said:
Win Shares updated through the Western Michigan game.
Click to expand...

Interesting. With Dre out with foul trouble that game, our MVP race has shifted a lot:

1. Austin Dufault
2. Carlon Brown
3. Andre Roberson
4. Askia Booker
5. Shane Harris-Tunks
6. Sabatino Chen
7. Nate Tomlinson
8. Shannon Sharpe
9. Spencer Dinwiddie

Pre-season, I would have guessed the following after knowing our starters:

1. Andre Roberson
2. Carlon Brown
3. Austin Dufault
4. Spencer Dinwiddie
5. Nate Tomlinson
6. Askia Booker
7. Shane Harris-Tunks
8. Shannon Sharpe
9. Sabatino Chen

I'll be interested to see how this adjusts after the Air Force game. 5 games should give us a decent baseline set to the data (about 15% of the season).
 
Buffnik said:
I'll get concerned if we don't see him step it up during the home part of the non-conference schedule, beginning with Georgia.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't worry too much yet, the good thing is his mistakes are because he is trying, he hasn't gone into a shell on the court and not touched the ball or afraid to throw up shots. Obviously 23% FG shooting isn't ideal, but he is still learning where and when to take his shots.
 
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