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Colorado Basketball Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 5 seasons
- Thread starter jgisland
- Start date
jgisland
Club Member
Adjusted +/- now updated through the Air Force game as well.
Nate was huge at AFA. I think he did it just to spite Snow.
I realize that I've been pimping him non-stop, but I really think that Dinwiddie's going to get it to all click very soon. His numbers are ridiculously bad right now, and I can't see any way that that continues. Kid has the talent. I'm hoping sometime soon the game slows down for him and we can see what he can really do.
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the CSU game.
Pretty poor offensive game against CSU all around really showed up in the season adjusted +/-. Roberson needs to pick it up on the offensive end, 1 pt on 2 FG attempts is not acceptable. He needs to show quickly that all of that work he put in over the summer actually paid off.
Pretty poor offensive game against CSU all around really showed up in the season adjusted +/-. Roberson needs to pick it up on the offensive end, 1 pt on 2 FG attempts is not acceptable. He needs to show quickly that all of that work he put in over the summer actually paid off.
jgisland
Club Member
He was terribly inefficient the first 4 games, that number has gotten much better the last 2 games.
At the end of the year, I think it would be very interesting to break the season down into thirds (or quarters if we do well in the Pac-12 tourney and post-season to get up to around 40 games played). I'd love to see who progressed or regressed as the year went on.
jgisland
Club Member
This can probably be done, how about the season broken down into 4ths as well as conf vs non conf and season totals?
You would be my hero.
Lots o rep comin to this guy
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the Fresno game.
A couple thoughts:
While the 2nd half of the Fresno game was ugly, CU played pretty well and efficient last night on the offensive end. Offensive rating of 110.9 and efg% of 59.5% (season high)
Roberson is asserting himself as the team MVP
A couple thoughts:
While the 2nd half of the Fresno game was ugly, CU played pretty well and efficient last night on the offensive end. Offensive rating of 110.9 and efg% of 59.5% (season high)
Roberson is asserting himself as the team MVP
Great stuff. Also, Mayor Dinwiddie has made a huge move since the team returned from Puerto Rico. If he'd played the first 4 like the last 4, he'd be right with Dre on win %.
You're right, though, about Dre. If he can continue scoring 15+ a night, his rebounding, steals and blocked shots are going to push him so far out in front for team MVP. He only played 24 minutes against FSU due to foul trouble and still delivered 21 and 10. Nasty.
If Dre has finally found his shot, he will redefine "nasty"
jgisland
Club Member
Everything updated through Wyoming game.
A couple of interesting things to note:
CU win shares is 5.9 and CU has 5 actual wins right now, why is that you ask? CU has played two close games and lost (CSU, Wyoming) and the other 2 losses (Wichita St and Maryland) were only by 9 and 7 points respectively, meaning 1 bad loss will bring those numbers closer together.
Jeremy Adams doesn't seem to be getting it done
Dinwiddie and Dre seem to finding their groove
Dufualt is having a nice season
A couple of interesting things to note:
CU win shares is 5.9 and CU has 5 actual wins right now, why is that you ask? CU has played two close games and lost (CSU, Wyoming) and the other 2 losses (Wichita St and Maryland) were only by 9 and 7 points respectively, meaning 1 bad loss will bring those numbers closer together.
Jeremy Adams doesn't seem to be getting it done
Dinwiddie and Dre seem to finding their groove
Dufualt is having a nice season
Dave Berri has changed his wins produced statistic so it's less reliant on rebounding (although early reports are that it's still a little high for most people).
jgisland
Club Member
I read Berri's post the other day and got all excited about some new revelation he had on his Wins Produced stat to combat for his overvaluing of rebounds (I know, pathetic) and then read his article to find out the big mathematical revelation he had was to give defensive rebounds only a 50% weight rather than the 100% he had previously. This makes sense (the idea is that on a defensive rebound you are possibly taking the rebound away from a teammate and thus overvaluing your effort) but to say the least I was underwhelmed, I wanted some actual research to go behind this instead of the seemingly arbitrary "lets just reduce the weighting by 50% and call it good."
As for the implications on that stats I run for the buffs, Win Shares is slightly different than Wins Produced (wins produced adjusts stats per position) but the premise is the same. The database of stats I pull from doesn't breakout offensive and defensive rebounds, I can probably find another source that breaks them out, but for the time being nothing in allbuff win shares land will be changing.
jgisland
Club Member
I have been working on making this data (win shares and adjusted +/-) a little easier to consume for people who don't necessarily love stats or who look at this and just see numbers. I ran across a site that does a good job of visualization of data. Let me know if anybody likes this and I can update these visualizations along with the numbers after the games.
Win Shares
Adjusted +/-
Win Shares
Adjusted +/-
jgisland
Club Member
Everything has been updated though the Cal St. Bakersfield game.
IER (individual efficiency rating) that CU and Tad use to evaluate players has now been added and there has been a format change. Current season IER, Win Shares and Adjusted +/- is all in one section and historical numbers are now below (less scrolling now required).
IER (individual efficiency rating) that CU and Tad use to evaluate players has now been added and there has been a format change. Current season IER, Win Shares and Adjusted +/- is all in one section and historical numbers are now below (less scrolling now required).
Possibly becuase he was carrying the team.
The Mayor has, by far, been are most consistent player over the last 5 games. Dufault is back baby!
yes and it is pretty sad because we need our seniors to lead the team. Kinda disappointed in Dre.
The Krause system is hilarious for Austin. It seems like he's either A+ or F. Which, actually, is pretty appropriate.
Also, you may admit that Nate, except for certain rare occurrences, is ****ing terrible. He is decent about 1/4 of the time. Funny thing is, you can usually tell what kind of game it will be for him within the first 5 minutes of game time. From now on, Tad should just figure that out early so he can sit him the rest of the game :lol:
jgisland
Club Member
"hilarious" is one way to describe Krause's system........
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the New Orleans game.
Thoughts:
Dinwiddie's offensive game is no longer "coming along", it has arrived, is thriving and I certainly hope it is here to stay
Roberson doing what we hoped he would before the season
I know a lot of people are high on Adams, I still think he can be really good, but he is struggling. He isn't shooting well (efg 35.4%) isn't rebounding (10 all season), he only has 1 assist and 1 steal the entire season. He is the only one on the team with a negative overall win share.
Thoughts:
Dinwiddie's offensive game is no longer "coming along", it has arrived, is thriving and I certainly hope it is here to stay
Roberson doing what we hoped he would before the season
I know a lot of people are high on Adams, I still think he can be really good, but he is struggling. He isn't shooting well (efg 35.4%) isn't rebounding (10 all season), he only has 1 assist and 1 steal the entire season. He is the only one on the team with a negative overall win share.
Our offense runs through Spencer. He is now the most valuable offensive player by far. 2d is Carlon, but he is pretty streaky so you can't depend on him night and and night out like you can the Mayor. Defense it is still Dre by a mile.