This is where I would post the "not sure if serious" graphic if I wasn't so lazy.
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Colorado Basketball Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 5 seasons
- Thread starter jgisland
- Start date
This is where I would post the "not sure if serious" graphic if I wasn't so lazy.
hehe. Numbers don't lie! I know they are terribly skewed by his block and Rebounding stats... but seriously, who is our Defensive MVP right now?
Dre or Carlon. Carlon's guy never goes off.
nttawwt?
Fair point. I just think that Dre's defense is dramatically overrated by a lot of people (mostly because he doesn't always give 100% effort on D) and that blocked shots are the most worthless stat in sports, so I HATE that they're such a dominant part of the defensive metrics. I may never see a better defender in my lifetime than Dennis Rodman, and he averaged less than a block a game for his career.
AllBuffs is like trying to have a conversation with Beavis and Butthead. :lol:
I think you're giving us too much credit.
Isn't this response supposed to be in a different thread, necessitating a wise crack?
I heard Bobby Knight talk about blocked shots. He completely disregarded them and tried to get his players to get any concerns about a blocked shot out of their heads. He said that if you drive hard, you're more likely to get fouled than have a clean block go against you. And even if it does get blocked, half the time it's going out of bounds and if it doesn't you are about 50/50 on being the team that snags the loose ball.
While I agree with him, I also think that the psychological hurdle is extremely difficult for most players to overcome. Having a guy on your back line who blocks and alters shots does wonders for team defense and defensive field goal %. You don't see guards jump stop in front of Dre and rise up for short jumpers like they do against Austin.
Thread merge fix. I had 2 AB windows open. Oops.
I understand that (and am definitely closer to the Knight camp on this one), but I'd be willing to settle for blocked shots if everyone didn't try to act like Superman and send it into the 10th row. Every big man should be forced to watch footage of Bill Russell playing D for hours on end. When he blocked a shot, he would tip it to himself and start the fastbreak. I think it was 82games.com that did a study in which they said that only 60% of blocked shots end with possession going to the defense (I'll try to find this). That's just throwing away free points. Does anyone here honestly think that if Dre tipped the ball to himself that Ski couldn't get out on the break and get an easy layup?
Chris "Birdman" Andersen has driven me insane his entire tenure in Denver (except for 2009 in which he played easily the most intelligent ball of his career) because of this one trait.
Chris "Birdman" Andersen has driven me insane his entire tenure in Denver (except for 2009 in which he played easily the most intelligent ball of his career) because of this one trait.
but the crowd loves it!
And that's great if it only happens once in a while or when the team needs the adrenaline boost. My problem is when Bird does it EVERY ****ING TIME.
I found the 82games.com article, and it's a pretty good read but it's an OLD read as it's from 2003 and talks about Dikembe Mutombo being on the Knicks.
Burnt Orange Nation actually has a pretty good article on blocked shots from August of this year that pretty much tells me to shut up. According to his work, the more shots a team blocks, the lower the opponents fg% overall (something Nik talked about earlier in his Dre vs Dufault comparison) and that a blocked shot is worth 0.7 points for the defense.
I figured it was sarcasm, but I know way too many people who have used that argument and not been joking to risk it.
jgisland
Club Member
In the book "Scorecasting" they did a study on this (anybody who reads this thread with any regularity will enjoy the book). Tim Duncan did by far the best in their study b/c he blocks it to himself or a teammate frequently where a guy like Dwight Howard has way more total blocks than Duncan blocks but a majority of them go out of bounds and return possession to the offense.
Goose I concur on your Birdman assessment. He is a great example of being a completey worthless shot blocker and a detriment on D. How many times does he try to make the hero block and his guy either pump fakes and Birdman goes flying by or they make the easy pass to Birdman's guy and they end up with a dunk?
btbuff
It's an inside joke
fify.
btbuff
It's an inside joke
I hadn't actually looked at the updated numbers. Good stuff Jg.
I thought we were only counting D1 games. :lol:
jgisland
Club Member
Thanks, corrected now.
And I have no idea why Dufault in Win Shares and the CSU game in IER have the highlighted boxes, they aren't that way when I copy them over from Excel, there isn't anything significant I am trying to point out.
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the UW game.
I get why IER is used, it is easy to understand, calculate and by giving it letter grades easy to interpret, but it is also the worst rating ever. Carlon was the key last night on offense, yes he had 4 TO's but he graded out as a C+ last night. I am sorry but Carlon was not a C+ last night. Nate had a decent night, an A+ night like he graded out? No I don't think so. Some of the other grades aren't so bad, Chen A- is about right, Adams who played much better last night with a B+ works for me, B+ for Booker and Dufault also pass the eye test.
I know that there isn't a perfect per game grading mechanism, but IER isn't even close imo.
I get why IER is used, it is easy to understand, calculate and by giving it letter grades easy to interpret, but it is also the worst rating ever. Carlon was the key last night on offense, yes he had 4 TO's but he graded out as a C+ last night. I am sorry but Carlon was not a C+ last night. Nate had a decent night, an A+ night like he graded out? No I don't think so. Some of the other grades aren't so bad, Chen A- is about right, Adams who played much better last night with a B+ works for me, B+ for Booker and Dufault also pass the eye test.
I know that there isn't a perfect per game grading mechanism, but IER isn't even close imo.
agreed. Looking at the grades though, you can tell the entire team played out of their skulls. I mean, what, Nate took one real shot all game and gets rewarded for putting in layups from other people's steals and gets an A+? What's up with that bull****?
Turnovers are tough. Kind of like interceptions in football can be a receiver's fault for running the wrong route or the OL's fault for allowing a DL to get a tip, turnovers aren't always the fault of the guy they're assigned to.
When we were running the guard weave against the zone, Ski was supposed to come to Carlon but instead jab stepped that way and then stayed in place. Carlon threw the ball out of bounds passing it to where Ski was supposed to go. That won't reflect on Ski in the statistical analysis. Similarly, we had other turnovers where the person being passed to did not come hard to the ball or secure it. That's not the fault of the guy who made the pass.
I think those things pretty much even out over the course of a season for the whole stat set. But when we look at individual game performances, the stats can definitely be misleading.
When we were running the guard weave against the zone, Ski was supposed to come to Carlon but instead jab stepped that way and then stayed in place. Carlon threw the ball out of bounds passing it to where Ski was supposed to go. That won't reflect on Ski in the statistical analysis. Similarly, we had other turnovers where the person being passed to did not come hard to the ball or secure it. That's not the fault of the guy who made the pass.
I think those things pretty much even out over the course of a season for the whole stat set. But when we look at individual game performances, the stats can definitely be misleading.
jgisland
Club Member
you are exactly right on the turnovers and they do even out over the season. it is just if tad posts those grades or whatever and i am carlon and see a C+, i know what my reaction would be. four letter word the IER.
that play where carlon threw it out and booker was going the opposite way, after that play booker looked at carlon like what are you doing, and carlon didn't say anything or look at booker. i didn't get that and still don't get what exactly happened.
that play where carlon threw it out and booker was going the opposite way, after that play booker looked at carlon like what are you doing, and carlon didn't say anything or look at booker. i didn't get that and still don't get what exactly happened.
looked to me like brown had the ball slip out of his hand.