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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
Being an early adopter in this case is not a good thing.
-viewing habits of your consumers have not yet adapted
- market pricing has not been established, meaning you will accept far less than the conferences who move in 3-5 years
- you are already the niche product in your highly competitive market. Marginalizing yourself even further has little upside
- What the Pac needs desperately is to change the perception of it being small time and an afterthought. Signing on for streaming only just reinforces that idea.
Forde, Wentzel and Dellenger basically reiterate my point from last night and they aren’t even discussing the actual sports app that could be part of the deal. Starts at 24:00 and discussion goes to like 29:00
BatBuff
Well-Known Member
Thank goodness we have Coach Prime now. We need his influence to navigate the roads up ahead.
Personally I want CU out of the PAC-12 ASAP. Would love to see the Big Ten for CU, but I’d also rather be in the Big 12 than the PAC-12 right now. If the Big 12 takes some PAC-12 teams, they might have a good shot at getting ACC teams later. The sad reality is the PAC-12 can never get an ACC team due to geographic constraints.
Personally I want CU out of the PAC-12 ASAP. Would love to see the Big Ten for CU, but I’d also rather be in the Big 12 than the PAC-12 right now. If the Big 12 takes some PAC-12 teams, they might have a good shot at getting ACC teams later. The sad reality is the PAC-12 can never get an ACC team due to geographic constraints.
BatBuff
Well-Known Member
Thank goodness we have Coach Prime now. We need his influence to navigate the roads up ahead.
Personally I want CU out of the PAC-12 ASAP. Would love to see the Big Ten for CU, but I’d also rather be in the Big 12 than the PAC-12 right now. If the Big 12 takes some PAC-12 teams, they might have a good shot at getting ACC teams later. The sad reality is the PAC-12 can never get an ACC team due to geographic constraints
Personally I want CU out of the PAC-12 ASAP. Would love to see the Big Ten for CU, but I’d also rather be in the Big 12 than the PAC-12 right now. If the Big 12 takes some PAC-12 teams, they might have a good shot at getting ACC teams later. The sad reality is the PAC-12 can never get an ACC team due to geographic constraints
They were talking on the pod how they may aggressively target SMU and SDSU and basically force the Pac into Boise, UNLV, and/or Fresno. Memphis and USF also discussed as possibilities.
Personally, if there’s even a chance of that, I’d rather CU just reach out and jump now.
If everything we've seen the last couple days is accurate, we need to get the hell out, now!
The idea that adding schools is going to be good for the existing members of the PAC is simply false.
There is a pool of money out there that the networks are willing to put into media rights. The SEC and the B1G have already taken the biggest shares of that money and added the schools they think give them the leverage to get bigger shares.
This leaves the remaining money to be divided among the remaining schools that were P5 and smaller portions for the G5 schools. Adding schools to a conference increases you value by the value that school brings but if that value is less than the shares schools in the conference would get without them then it is a negative to those schools.
All of the schools I am seeing would do just this, reduce the size of the share the existing schools get.
For a school like Colorado there are only two ways their share will actually get bigger relative to the other schools. One is to join a conference with larger payouts. SEC isn't leaving the southeast. the B1G is a small but potential destination. We need to win a lot and get significant ratings to create value.
The other potential is rather than expansion go with contraction. This would mean becoming part of a third superconference taking the strongest value programs from the ACC, B12, and PAC into one conference and dumping the rest of the programs. This would mean that schools like Oregon State and Washington State, would be left out. A number of the recent additions to the B12 would find themselves outside again as would some ACC schools. The result would be three conferences dissolving and a new conference of 16-20 teams formed.
There is a pool of money out there that the networks are willing to put into media rights. The SEC and the B1G have already taken the biggest shares of that money and added the schools they think give them the leverage to get bigger shares.
This leaves the remaining money to be divided among the remaining schools that were P5 and smaller portions for the G5 schools. Adding schools to a conference increases you value by the value that school brings but if that value is less than the shares schools in the conference would get without them then it is a negative to those schools.
All of the schools I am seeing would do just this, reduce the size of the share the existing schools get.
For a school like Colorado there are only two ways their share will actually get bigger relative to the other schools. One is to join a conference with larger payouts. SEC isn't leaving the southeast. the B1G is a small but potential destination. We need to win a lot and get significant ratings to create value.
The other potential is rather than expansion go with contraction. This would mean becoming part of a third superconference taking the strongest value programs from the ACC, B12, and PAC into one conference and dumping the rest of the programs. This would mean that schools like Oregon State and Washington State, would be left out. A number of the recent additions to the B12 would find themselves outside again as would some ACC schools. The result would be three conferences dissolving and a new conference of 16-20 teams formed.
It's completely outside our control and we have very little information. One thing I have noticed, though, is that the P12 is not as aggressive about planting stories to drive a narrative as other conferences (particularly the Big 12). With that, there have been a lot of false stories coming out which were negative for the P12 and predicted major shifts to the B12, so I'm skeptical about the current conjecture.
My fear. Oregon and Washington know the Big10 isn't expanding anytime soon.
Big12 comes calling and they get big incentives to join. At that point Big12 only wants two more from the 4 corner schools. Who do they take?
If there is some kind of behind closed doors open door invite CU needs to run now before it's too late.
Big12 comes calling and they get big incentives to join. At that point Big12 only wants two more from the 4 corner schools. Who do they take?
If there is some kind of behind closed doors open door invite CU needs to run now before it's too late.
I've seen some conjecture in recent weeks that the Big 12 might go after SDSU to beat the Pac12 to the punch, but it would make more sense for the Big12 to just invite whatever Pac12 schools they want. I suppose if they wanted SDSU then they could only go after 3 schools from the Pac12, and in that case I would think Utah would be the odd one out assuming the Big12 looks to add 4 schools. In this scenario the Big12 would invite SDSU, CU, and the Arizona schools.
RE: SMU
I wouldn't think the Big12 would be interested in SMU because they wouldn't add much other than maybe a slight bump in viewership in the Dallas market.
RE: Boise, UNLV, Fresno
I thought the Pac12 didn't have any interest in these schools due to their low academic profiles.
The SMU to Big12 play would be boxing the Pac 12 out from Texas and adding TCU/SMU rivalry
It's still a defensive move.
Playing offense is the way to go if you're the B12.
Swing for four of: CU, ASU, UA, UU, SDSU, UO, UW. The three that don't jump are ****ed.
[Pretty sure that San Diego is technically part of LA media market - literally only reason their in the conversation.]
My play is SEC long term, BIG12 short term.
Get out of the PAC, move to the BIG12 where Prime can thrive, then angle for the 3rd super conference, or the SEC
Cannot sit around on this one Ricky G
Get out of the PAC, move to the BIG12 where Prime can thrive, then angle for the 3rd super conference, or the SEC
Cannot sit around on this one Ricky G
Yes, but as @skibum said that is more of a defensive move on the Big12's part, and it sounds like Yormark wants to be more aggressive.
But yea, that would cap the Texas footprint to just 2 P5 conferences since the only schools left there to poach would be smaller schools. Unless someone thinks Rice has value, which they don't.
I don't understand how the math works. A defensive move on expansion with SMU (which doesn't add a media market) for the Big 12 is somehow a strong move for them which increases its revenue for its 12 members... but somehow the speculation is that if the P12 added SMU for a new DFW market and expansion into TX that it wouldn't result in a bigger contract for the P12? This doesn't make sense.
I don’t think adding SMU increase the revenue for the Big 12 schools. I think there’s an idea that doing some of these things could ultimately kill the Pac 12 and force some to jump to the Big 12, which would increase the revenue.
If the Pac 12 doesn’t get SDSU and SMU, then what? At that point, do Oregon and Washington say **** this and bail? Same question about Arizona schools, CU and Utah? I don’t see Cal and Stanford being proactive in anything, but the other 6 might
Even then, doesn't it seem weird that the 4 corners P12 members would increase the B12 revenue so much that the existing 12 would earn more, UO and UW are reportedly more valuable than any of those 4, and possibly Cal & Stanford are at least as valuable as those 4 since they're in the largest media market.
That's 8 of the 10 P12 members that would supposedly be worth so much to the B12 that all 12 of its members would make more than they currently do while dividing the total pie into more slices. Yet somehow the P12 is much less valuable than the B12? I don't see how this calculus makes any sense.
If you merged the two, the vast majority of the most valuable properties would be Pac 12 schools - and I don't think it's even close.
Because the Big 12 jumped the line and got their deal done while the Pac 12 decided to wait and go to market. Fox isn’t interested in the Pac 12 and ESPN doesn’t have any competition for the Pac 12 rights. GK overestimated the market
So how does that translate to those media companies being willing to renegotiate with the B12 and pay more money for B12 + some teams added from the P12 than they're willing to pay to get the P12 teams separately?
GABuff
Well-Known Member
To be honest I stopped following the various speculations, wishes, fantasies and far-fetched dreams when it comes to college athletics and conference expansion, so I may have missed this. But, when it comes to the Texas media market, where's the love for the University of Houston. It seems like they're solid in the two income generators, football and men's basketball. Do they just not have the cachet for the Pac-12?
Houston was the P12's #1 target (with TCU the most likely other) when they were looking to go to 14. Allegedly, USC blackballed it while they were secretly in negotiations with the B1G because they didn't want to talk about a GOR extension.
We just need to get Prime a 5 minute meeting with the B1G commissioner. Done deal.