CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[Alfred91]

It’s not going to be 4-5x. It will likely be double but not that much. Regardless, what good does $100m/year for CU do if the admin doesn’t care? We simply become Rutgers or Vanderbilt

Your math assumes a Big 12 contract that's going to getting us $50M a year. I don't see any way that's possible. $20-25M tops. No Big 12 Network, no blue bloods drawing eyeballs, 2 national championships ever, and the most recent is 30+ years ago.

Anyway, where it matters if we had gotten that $100M/yr, we would have had a chance, had the school ever changed gears. In the Big 12, it's game over. Which is what it is. But it would have been nice to have given ourselves a chance.

But don't get me wrong. As late as 2012, we would have been a shoo-in for Big Ten expansion. We did this to ourselves.

 

[ahoelsken]

I think it would be a really fun conference that CU would have an opportunity to actually compete in (assuming there’s a semblance of give a **** from the admin and AD)

Two things to keep in mind with the Big 12 talk-One, that's still a Texas/Oklahoma centric conference. Almost half that league (TCU, Baylor, Tech, Houston, Okie Lite) is in one of those two states. We still recruit Texas heavily. Feels like its a higher priority for us than even California is to at least me. Two, we're joining a group of schools that actually give a **** about sports. Can't say the same thing for the Pac 12.

 

[BuffDog]

I just wonder where you get this notion from. The evidence from around the world does not show your take to be true. You seem to be taking what Bill Gates said years ago about his kids and saying this is true for every one. The Walton, Mars, Lauder, Cargill, and Koch families all disagree with you.

I have to agree from preparing their tax returns and being involved with their estate planning.

 

[ahoelsken]

Your math assumes a Big 12 contract that's going to getting us $50M a year. I don't see any way that's possible. $20-25M tops. No Big 12 Network, no blue bloods drawing eyeballs, 2 national championships ever, and the most recent is 30+ years ago.

Anyway, where it matters if we had gotten that $100M/yr, we would have had a chance, had the school ever changed gears. In the Big 12, it's game over. Which is what it is. But it would have been nice to have given ourselves a chance.

But don't get me wrong. As late as 2012, we would have been a shoo-in for Big Ten expansion. We did this to ourselves.

Their projections have them getting that kind of money right now.

 

[Liver]

TIFWIW

i am getting my brain around this and coming to the realization it is probably our best bet right now, unless there is behind the scenes momentum with the big (and i do not think that is likely).

we can wait around and see what oregon does (and i honestly thought they would be off the table by now... the fact that they are not is super intriguing) or we can do the best we can with the facts we have now. i mean even if oregon doesn't go first to the big, what the **** are they going to want in terms of preferential revenue in a reformed pac?

why isn't the big already offering them? they don't want uw? oregon wants too much? it has to be something. oregon is next best brand not in the big or sec.

if we jump now to the big 12, and oregon doesn't get a big invite, then the big 12 suddenly has some leverage to land them too--- along with uw. i feel kinda bad for uw -- they are, as usual, a lot like us but have more recently performed better. they (and us) should be in a better position in all this than current. that said, they are still clearly the 2nd best brand behind oregon who isn't in the sec or big right now.

what a pile of **** we find ourselves in.

 

[BlackNGold]

I agree with others that at some point the CU administration needs to commit to athletics and not just lip service the we are an "elite athletic program".

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Your math assumes a Big 12 contract that's going to getting us $50M a year. I don't see any way that's possible. $20-25M tops. No Big 12 Network, no blue bloods drawing eyeballs, 2 national championships ever, and the most recent is 30+ years ago.

Anyway, where it matters if we had gotten that $100M/yr, we would have had a chance, had the school ever changed gears. In the Big 12, it's game over. Which is what it is. But it would have been nice to have given ourselves a chance.

But don't get me wrong. As late as 2012, we would have been a shoo-in for Big Ten expansion. We did this to ourselves.

To put this in perspective, Major League Soccer just signed a $250m/year TV deal. A Big12 CFB conference consisting of the programs mentioned will garner substantially more, probably at least double that.

 

[66BUFF]

Sucks how? Moving to the PAC was the right call at the time. The incompetence after we switched conferences is what killed CU football.

The move only made sense if the 5 Big 12 south teams came with us. The incompetence started well before the Pac 12 move.

 

[Matt]

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

 

[ahoelsken]

Sucks how? Moving to the PAC was the right call at the time. The incompetence after we switched conferences is what killed CU football.

Incompetent leadership. The Pac 12's old building was 13 miles from YoutubeTV's headquarters. You know what still isn't on YoutubeTV? The Pac 12 network. USC had been open about wanting to leave.

Should USC consider leaving the PAC-12 and go independent?

Should the USC athletic department consider leaving the PAC-12 conference and going independent? We hear from LA Times sports columnist Bill Plaschke and Trojan athletic director Mike Bohn on the subject.

247sports.com

USC AD Hinted At Independence, Later Clarified; But Pac-12 Needs USC

Would USC take its football program independent?

kslsports.com

If this conference was truly surprised by those two doing this, its because they weren't paying attention.

This is before we start talking about how the schools on the west coast are more interested in all those water polo national championships they have.

 

[BlackNGold]

No one knows what the Big 10 is thinking. Are they happy with 16 teams? I do suspect that Notre Dame is a key and probably has invites from both the Big 10 and the ACC. Notre Dame to the Big 10 makes a lot of sense because of some of the built in rivalries - Michigan, USC, MSU and Purdue. If Notre Dame choses to go to the Big 10, the B10 would probably add one to 3 more teams. CU has a few positives to offer - solid TV market, major metropolitan area with many B10 alums, solid academics, location for travel. Negatives of course are a not so engaged fan base, poor recent performance in football, and an administration that seems to lacking in leadership for both academics and athletics.

 

[SeanMSan]

When I first heard the news of SC/UCLA, my first thought was “okay…?!” The more I read about it, the more pissed off/frustrated/worrisome I became.

Getting stomped by the B1G royalty, meat-slapped by the middling teams, and coin-flips on the bottom feeders didn’t seem too attractive.

The revenue share of the B1G - which would hopefully spin a 2016-type season a little more frequently - as well as less 9 PM central time games, would make this option pretty attractive to the fans. Which means probably the most improbable scenario.

Staying on a sinking ship (PAC##), or jumping to a ship that has been stripped of its best parts (BIG”XII”), doesn’t seem like a decent move for the long term (obviously).

(Another obvious point) CU getting to what is most likely one of the eventual big super conferences, by lucking into a third class boarding ticket now, is what I’m hoping for (probably along with most people here), even if it means seeing Ohio State putting up 84 points - more often than not - for years to come.

The B1G leaving the LA schools on an island, two-three time zones away, won’t be an issue for too long. Whether they add more pacific time zone schools, or ad a few mountain time zone schools (better option IMO) to help bridge and/or offset the burden on all schools. I’m not sure the attraction of someone in C-bus or Happy Valley watching away games that start at 10 maybe 11 PM eastern time? I could be grossly underestimating this all…

CU is most likely in a “We’ll take you in a post-dust settling spot”. The way that the B1G stuff-armed Oregon and UW either means that Notre Dame has the talking stick, and/or the B1G flat-out said leave your little siblings at home, please.

Lets hope that non-athletic attributes keep CU attractive enough to be the poor/nerdy girl “project” for prom Queen for the morally conflicted “cool guy” in those teen movies. Leave the Duckie behind, and watch out for the cool guy’s morally deficient buddy that just wants a quick piece of action.

 

[Alfred91]

To put this in perspective, Major League Soccer just signed a $250m/year TV deal. A Big12 CFB conference consisting of the programs mentioned will garner substantially more, probably at least double that.

16 teams would require at $800M. I do think adding the 4 Pac-12 schools will make it more attractive (especially ASU and Utah, FML), but that much more?

The Presidents of this new Big 12 are going to need to be proactive af in getting a conference network together and promoting this thing as a nationwide conference spanning massive TV markets (which they do, though only ASU/UA dominate their market), and promising good TV times.

The network has to happen or it's all gonna fall on its face again though.

 

[Alfred91]

No one knows what the Big 10 is thinking. Are they happy with 16 teams? I do suspect that Notre Dame is a key and probably has invites from both the Big 10 and the ACC. Notre Dame to the Big 10 makes a lot of sense because of some of the built in rivalries - Michigan, USC, MSU and Purdue. If Notre Dame choses to go to the Big 10, the B10 would probably add one to 3 more teams. CU has a few positives to offer - solid TV market, major metropolitan area with many B10 alums, solid academics, location for travel. Negatives of course are a not so engaged fan base, poor recent performance in football, and an administration that seems to lacking in leadership for both academics and athletics.

Both the Big Ten and SEC are positioning themselves as the only conferences to survive past the ACC's GoR expiring. The Big Ten might stay at 16, or 18, or 20, but ND can sit to the side for now. What's gonna happen when the ACC GoR expires though is that the ACC schools will be gobbled up by the SEC and Big Ten and we'll have two 24 team superconferences, and that'll be it. When that is all going down, and the ACC will also be no more, ND will have lost all leverage and will have to come into the Big Ten as a regular member, no more important than anybody else coming in.

That's all speculation, but if I were the Big Ten, that's what my thinking would be.

 

[ahoelsken]

No one knows what the Big 10 is thinking. Are they happy with 16 teams? I do suspect that Notre Dame is a key and probably has invites from both the Big 10 and the ACC. Notre Dame to the Big 10 makes a lot of sense because of some of the built in rivalries - Michigan, USC, MSU and Purdue. If Notre Dame choses to go to the Big 10, the B10 would probably add one to 3 more teams. CU has a few positives to offer - solid TV market, major metropolitan area with many B10 alums, solid academics, location for travel. Negatives of course are a not so engaged fan base, poor recent performance in football, and an administration that seems to lacking in leadership for both academics and athletics.

The key with Notre Dame is two things. One, they have a home for their other sports for right now. That probably doesn't change until we either get closer to the ACC's GoR expiring or Clemson does something. Two, they have playoff access. I personally don't think that happens right now, but I'll eat crow if if I'm wrong.

The Big 10 has to add more western teams-don't they? Title 9 is still a thing, and the travel costs for USC to go play a tennis match in Piscataway or College Park will add up. Kind of wonder if the hidden messaging from the B1G to Oregon/Washington was "We like you, but we don't like you enough to want to take Wazzu/Oregon State. Free yourselves of your little brothers and then we can talk."

 

[Buffnik]

TIFWIW

If this happens:

1. Pac-12 is officially dead.
2. I'm going to assume that UO, UW, Stanford and Cal will enter negotiations to make a B1G of 20 members.
3. WSU and OSU are destined to the MWC, I'd assume.
4. I have to believe the SEC would be strategizing on ACC assets and whether there's a path around the GoR to keep pace with the B1G or surpass it.
5. If the ACC loses members, I'd bet that UCF and WVU (maybe Cincy, too) would rather be in that conference than the Big 12.
6. I don't think the expansion goes beyond 24, but who knows. ACC stability and Notre Dame's decision will determine how crazy things get and how quickly it happens.
7. The B1G/ACC/P12 alliance will go down as one of the worst jokes ever told.

 

[Hank]

If Kansas bolts, we have very little connection to the Big 12. Half of the Big 8 would be gone. Joining the Big 12 is not attractive at all to me. I would hold out for something better - even if it seems it might never come along. I would probably prefer to be mediocre against second-rate western schools vs being mediocre against second-rate Texas schools.

 

[ahoelsken]

If this happens:

1. Pac-12 is officially dead.
2. I'm going to assume that UO, UW, Stanford and Cal will enter negotiations to make a B1G of 20 members.
3. WSU and OSU are destined to the MWC, I'd assume.
4. I have to believe the SEC would be strategizing on ACC assets and whether there's a path around the GoR to keep pace with the B1G or surpass it.
5. If the ACC loses members, I'd bet that UCF and WVU (maybe Cincy, too) would rather be in that conference than the Big 12.
6. I don't think the expansion goes beyond 24, but who knows. ACC stability and Notre Dame's decision will determine how crazy things get and how quickly it happens.
7. The B1G/ACC/P12 alliance will go down as one of the worst jokes ever told.

I think Stanford and Cal are probably MWC bound as well.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If Kansas bolts, we have very little connection to the Big 12. Half of the Big 8 would be gone. Joining the Big 12 is not attractive at all to me. I would hold out for something better - even if it seems it might never come along. I would probably prefer to be mediocre against second-rate western schools vs being mediocre against second-rate Texas schools.

The Pac 12 is done. It’s likely the Big 12 or the MWC for CU. Which do you prefer?

 

[ahoelsken]

If Kansas bolts, we have very little connection to the Big 12. Half of the Big 8 would be gone. Joining the Big 12 is not attractive at all to me. I would hold out for something better - even if it seems it might never come along. I would probably prefer to be mediocre against second-rate western schools vs being mediocre against second-rate Texas schools.

We have no access to LA now. **** the Pac 12.

If you'd rather watch CU/CSU as a conference game, more power to you. I'll pass on that.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I think Stanford and Cal are probably MWC bound as well.

Yeah, @Buffnik, I’m not sure Cal/Stanford bring anything more than CU does from a $$ standpoint.

 

[BerkeleyBuff]

5. If the ACC loses members, I'd bet that UCF and WVU (maybe Cincy, too) would rather be in that conference than the Big 12.

If the ACC loses its best members the new Big XII would be making much more than what's left of the ACC.

 

[Buffnik]

I think Stanford and Cal are probably MWC bound as well.

Stanford would go independent rather than do that.

 

[NW Buff]

Yeah, @Buffnik, I’m not sure Cal/Stanford bring anything more than CU does from a $$ standpoint.

Bay Area tv market. Much more prestigious academically

 

[ahoelsken]

Stanford would go independent rather than do that.

Either way. They're not going to either super conference or the Big 12 is my point. I think the Big 12 jumps on the Mountain/AZ schools to try and force the hands of UW/UO.

 

[Buffnik]

Yeah, @Buffnik, I’m not sure Cal/Stanford bring anything more than CU does from a $$ standpoint.

If the in-footprint rates are still almost 3X the out-of-footprint rates, the number of tv homes in the SF-San Jose-Oakland metro is incredibly valuable. My impression is that the B1G loves the prestige of those universities, too.

 

[ahoelsken]

Bay Area tv market. Much more prestigious academically

TV markets don't matter anywhere near as much now as they did ten years ago.

 

[Alfred91]

Stanford would go independent rather than do that.

Could well happen.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Bay Area tv market. Much more prestigious academically

I was listening to Andy Staples and some other guys talk about it all on their podcast yesterday and they somewhat echo the sentiment that Jens has put out there a lot that TV market doesn’t really matter if they aren’t getting eyeballs from that market, and it’s more about athletic brands at this point. Stanford and Cal both suck worse than CU w/r/t to viewership

 

[Alfred91]

Personally, and I could be way wrong, but if the Big Ten goes beyond 16, they're gonna take the Bay schools. Stanford brings a lot to the table, and Cal will get coattailed as a travel partner.

Markets don't matter, but travel costs do.