CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[White_Rabbit]

Where did I recently read that 70% of BIG12 games are guaranteed to be on ESPN/ABC or FOX/FS1 channels ?
That's a majority over 30% ESPN+.

To me ESPN+, and Amazon are comparable and Apple below both.

Link us when you find out. Honestly, I'd be curious to read that as that does seem like a really good deal for them in that case.

From what I can gather, it sounds like it's a mostly ESPN deal, but Fox has a chunk that the B12 seems to think is appealing.

https://sports.yahoo.com/reports-bi...-deal-with-espn-fox-worth-23-b-153415193.html

From Sports Business Journal:

For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game. The Big 12’s parity helped convince Fox, whose package includes 26 football games per season that will run on Fox broadcast network and FS1, to do the deal.

idk how exactly this works, but I'm thinking ESPN before the season gets to say we want these bigger matchups, so TCU vs Okie St and Kansas St vs Baylor or whatever the top 4 matchups are each season, then FOX gets the lesser matchups. Not bad matchups per se, but not the best. This is probably where the depth and lack of a star program helps the B12, there's less of a difference between their A tier and B tier games?

So that's great, except ESPN is already loaded. ESPN signed an exclusive SEC deal, so the SEC is only on ESPN. So ABC/ESPN are going to be cranking out SEC games all day between their two main channels channels. Then, they also solely own the ACC content. Neither of those conferences will be on any other channel, so competition to get on ESPN/ABC is going to be tough. I'm thinking, reading this, and correct me if I'm wrong, that the B12 is going to be loading up on ESPN+. So would the P12 too probably assuming ESPN buys some of their package, minus the late night stuff that ESPN probably really wants the P12 for

There's also Fox, where some lesser games will be if I read the picks thing correctly, but Fox is the main B1G network from what I can gather, although they at least also have some games on CBS and NBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/18/big-ten-lands-7-billion-nfl-style-tv-contracts.html

Fox, which has shared the rights to the Big Ten with ESPN since 2017 and owns a majority stake in the Big Ten Network, will continue to feature noon Eastern time as its primary game of the day.

Fox and its cable network FS1 will have the rights to more than two dozen football games, at least 45 men’s basketball games and women’s basketball games.

CBS, starting in 2024, will replace the Southeastern Conference game of the week at 3:30 p.m. Eastern — that is moving to ABC — with a Big Ten game.

CBS will carry 14-15 Big Ten football games a season from 2024-29, including a Black Friday game.

Starting in 2023, NBC will launch “Big Ten Saturday Night” in prime time and broadcast 15-16 games per season. The agreement with NBC also includes eight football games

That's the gist of the B1G deal. So sounds like a couple games on Fox per day, 1 CBS game per day, then a couple NBC games? Not really sure what to make of 15-16 games per season plus 8 football games, but it sounds like more than just the 1 prime time night game. So there could be some B12 on FOX action in the afternoon, or at least on FS1.

 

[Buffs35]

 

[InTheBuff]

Link us when you find out. Honestly, I'd be curious to read that as that does seem like a really good deal for them in that case.

From what I can gather, it sounds like it's a mostly ESPN deal, but Fox has a chunk that the B12 seems to think is appealing.

https://sports.yahoo.com/reports-bi...-deal-with-espn-fox-worth-23-b-153415193.html



idk how exactly this works, but I'm thinking ESPN before the season gets to say we want these bigger matchups, so TCU vs Okie St and Kansas St vs Baylor or whatever the top 4 matchups are each season, then FOX gets the lesser matchups. Not bad matchups per se, but not the best. This is probably where the depth and lack of a star program helps the B12, there's less of a difference between their A tier and B tier games?

So that's great, except ESPN is already loaded. ESPN signed an exclusive SEC deal, so the SEC is only on ESPN. So ABC/ESPN are going to be cranking out SEC games all day between their two main channels channels. Then, they also solely own the ACC content. Neither of those conferences will be on any other channel, so competition to get on ESPN/ABC is going to be tough. I'm thinking, reading this, and correct me if I'm wrong, that the B12 is going to be loading up on ESPN+. So would the P12 too probably assuming ESPN buys some of their package, minus the late night stuff that ESPN probably really wants the P12 for

There's also Fox, where some lesser games will be if I read the picks thing correctly, but Fox is the main B1G network from what I can gather, although they at least also have some games on CBS and NBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/18/big-ten-lands-7-billion-nfl-style-tv-contracts.html



That's the gist of the B1G deal. So sounds like a couple games on Fox per day, 1 CBS game per day, then a couple NBC games? Not really sure what to make of 15-16 games per season plus 8 football games, but it sounds like more than just the 1 prime time night game. So there could be some B12 on FOX action in the afternoon, or at least on FS1.

Pac-12 unlikely to reach media rights deal with more than 50% of games airing on TV, long-time consultant says

Time continues to run out on the conference finding a viable option for exposure on linear television

www.cbssports.com

Here's the article mentioning the 70%

 

[White_Rabbit]

Pac-12 unlikely to reach media rights deal with more than 50% of games airing on TV, long-time consultant says

Time continues to run out on the conference finding a viable option for exposure on linear television

www.cbssports.com

Here's the article mentioning the 70%

I'll just say, Dennis Dodd hasn't seemed to be the most unbiased actor in all of this and that's what he's saying, not the media expert. I get that he says things you like to hear, but he's not really seeming a lot different than the ones you don't like such as Wilner or Calzano

But assuming it's true, I'm just struggling to see it for the B12. 70% may be possible on "linear" networks, but in reality there's no way 70% of B12 games will be on some consortium of ESPN/ABC/FOX that I can tell. And once you're into the FS1/ESPN2 realm of coverage, the ratings have a pretty hard ceiling.

Lets play out a fall Saturday under these new deals

ABC: 1230 EST South Carolina vs Florida, 330 EST Georgia vs LSU 7 EST Alabama vs Tennessee
ESPN: 1230EST Clemson vs Miami, 330 EST Florida St vs Virginia Tech 7 EST Texas vs Missouri
FOX: 12 EST Wisconsin vs Michigan, 3 EST maybe a B12? Probably a B1G game 2, Ohio St vs USC? 7 EST baseball or maybe a B12 game?

I'd feel a lot better about the B12's deal if the B1G's primary partner wasn't FOX. They're gonna get a couple really good matchups every Saturday to broadcast. I think the B12 is gonna wind up on FS1/ESPN2 or ESPN+ a loooooooot. Which, like I said, given the streaming options, ESPN+ would probably be the most ideal. Or Amazon since half of the world seemingly already has Prime.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I'll be floored to see more than half of B12's games on actual TV in the next couple years, but maybe Dodd is more legit than I give him credit for

 

[Burrito]

 

[skibum]

I'll just say, Dennis Dodd hasn't seemed to be the most unbiased actor in all of this and that's what he's saying, not the media expert. I get that he says things you like to hear, but he's not really seeming a lot different than the ones you don't like such as Wilner or Calzano

But assuming it's true, I'm just struggling to see it for the B12. 70% may be possible on "linear" networks, but in reality there's no way 70% of B12 games will be on some consortium of ESPN/ABC/FOX that I can tell. And once you're into the FS1/ESPN2 realm of coverage, the ratings have a pretty hard ceiling.

Lets play out a fall Saturday under these new deals

ABC: 1230 EST South Carolina vs Florida, 330 EST Georgia vs LSU 7 EST Alabama vs Tennessee
ESPN: 1230EST Clemson vs Miami, 330 EST Florida St vs Virginia Tech 7 EST Texas vs Missouri
FOX: 12 EST Wisconsin vs Michigan, 3 EST maybe a B12? Probably a B1G game 2, Ohio St vs USC? 7 EST baseball or maybe a B12 game?

I'd feel a lot better about the B12's deal if the B1G's primary partner wasn't FOX. They're gonna get a couple really good matchups every Saturday to broadcast. I think the B12 is gonna wind up on FS1/ESPN2 or ESPN+ a loooooooot. Which, like I said, given the streaming options, ESPN+ would probably be the most ideal. Or Amazon since half of the world seemingly already has Prime.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but I'll be floored to see more than half of B12's games on actual TV in the next couple years, but maybe Dodd is more legit than I give him credit for

This.

I don't think people are capable of basic math if they believe the 70% number.

The B12 has about 6 games a weekend. So 70% would mean 4 games/week.

I don't buy it, unless they're accepting the VAST majority of them on ESPN2, FS1, FS2, and ESPNU, which, as you note, have pretty hard (and low) ceilings for viewers.

I mean, I don't think the B12 *with* OU and UT ever had more than 2 Saturday games on ABC, Fox, and ESPN. The league as currently composed will be lucky to average 1 - and the only way they'll average one on those networks each week is if you include Friday games.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

This.

I don't people are capable of basic math if they believe the 70% number.

The B12 has about 6 games a weekend. So 70% would mean 4 games/week.

I don't buy it, unless they're accepting the VAST majority of them on ESPN2, FS1, FS2, and ESPNU, which, as you note, have pretty hard (and low) ceilings for viewers.

Yea the 70% figure would have to include those 4 networks you listed

 

[ahoelsken]

This.

I don't people are capable of basic math if they believe the 70% number.

The B12 has about 6 games a weekend. So 70% would mean 4 games/week.

I don't buy it, unless they're accepting the VAST majority of them on ESPN2, FS1, FS2, and ESPNU, which, as you note, have pretty hard (and low) ceilings for viewers.

I mean, I don't think the B12 *with* OU and UT ever had more than 2 Saturday games on ABC, Fox, and ESPN. The league as currently composed will be lucky to average 1 - and the only way they'll average one on those networks each week is if you include Friday games.

You have to be right. I think ESPN and FOX have to probably open up Thursday slots as well for CFB......Especially now with the NFL's Thursday package on Prime.

 

[Victory]

This.

I don't people are capable of basic math if they believe the 70% number.

The B12 has about 6 games a weekend. So 70% would mean 4 games/week.

I don't buy it, unless they're accepting the VAST majority of them on ESPN2, FS1, FS2, and ESPNU, which, as you note, have pretty hard (and low) ceilings for viewers.

I mean, I don't think the B12 *with* OU and UT ever had more than 2 Saturday games on ABC, Fox, and ESPN. The league as currently composed will be lucky to average 1 - and the only way they'll average one on those networks each week is if you include Friday games.

B12 folks are using %’s because it sounds like a big number but like you’re saying we’re talking about ~4 games.

Group 1
ESPN
Fox
ABC
CBS
NBC

Group 2
ESPN 2/U
FS1/2

Could the B12 get one game in Group 1 and three in Group 2? Sure. Is that some kind of achievement to flex to P12 schools? No. I also don’t believe they’ll always get a Group 1 game.

Their argument is really Group 2 is better than Amazon / Apple streaming. That might be true to start but streamers pay well and we need the money.

Also, does anyone think Deion wouldn’t love being on Amazon Prime? Guy has his own doc there and does commercials for TNF.

 

[InTheBuff]

Yea the 70% figure would have to include those 4 networks you listed

I still prefer 'those networks' over Apple and Amazon.
You will NEVER get a casual fan specifically signing onto either to see what Colorado or Oregon is doing against ASU.
If the game is on linear it's easier to stumble upon it.

 

[skibum]

B12 folks are using %’s because it sounds like a big number but like you’re saying we’re talking about ~4 games.

Group 1
ESPN
Fox
ABC
CBS
NBC

Group 2
ESPN 2/U
FS1/2

Could the B12 get one game in Group 1 and three in Group 2? Sure. Is that some kind of achievement to flex to P12 schools? No. I also don’t believe they’ll always get a Group 1 game.

Their argument is really Group 2 is better than Amazon / Apple streaming. That might be true to start but streamers pay well and we need the money.

Also, does anyone think Deion wouldn’t love being on Amazon Prime? Guy has his own doc there and does commercials for TNF.

Yeah, I'm not buying that your "Group 2" is demonstrably "better" than Amazon/Apple/YouTube/etc streaming.

In fact, on any timeline longer than one or two years, I would strongly consider the possibility that the opposite may be true: viewership on those networks is trending down, and viewership on the streaming platforms is trending up.

And the "stumbling onto" argument is just dumb. We're talking a miniscule amount of viewers.

The way to stumble onto games is to watch the score ticker and see which games are close, and tune to them.

(Plus acting like "signing on" is some big, difficult painful task is just an ignorant luddite take: you're already "signed in," and it's not any more clicks to change over to watching a streaming service than it is to change from say ABC to ESPNU.)

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If ESPN isn't getting Pac inventory, as the Big 12 propaganda machine keeps trying to suggest, who do they think is filling their late and Thursday/Friday night slots? It sure as **** isn't going to be the SEC or ACC. Hope the Big 12 is ready for a lot of 9:30pm local kicks

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I still prefer 'those networks' over Apple and Amazon.
You will NEVER get a casual fan specifically signing onto either to see what Colorado or Oregon is doing against ASU.
If the game is on linear it's easier to stumble upon it.

Most die hard CFB fans aren't tuning into FS1/2 or ESPN2/U to watch games as is, let along the casuals, and I think it's pretty well documented that the younger generations and casuals spend more time on Apple/Amazon type services than they do on linear anyways.

There is no meaningful ratings impact because casual fans are just "stumbling" upon a Texas Tech vs Iowa State game on ESPN2. The only people watching that are fans of those programs, and journalists covering those programs.

 

[InTheBuff]

Yeah, I'm not buying that your "Group 2" is demonstrably "better" than Amazon/Apple/YouTube/etc streaming.

In fact, on any timeline longer than one or two years, I would strongly consider the possibility that the opposite may be true: viewership on those networks is trending down, and viewership on the streaming platforms is trending up.

I think we are still a good five years to really know IF streaming is going to 'take over' when it comes to college football.
Colorado is living in the NOW. This is their audition. The Buffs need as many eyes on them as possible. Apple isn't going to do that NOW.
Maybe in 2030 things will be different but not this moment.

I keep thinking last fall when I wanted to channel surf between whatever ESPN college game that was on Thursday night VS the Amazon NFL game
and it was a royal PITA. Sure there will be those who might put the Amazon game on an IPad and watch the college game on TV at the same time but
frick. Not optimum.

 

[InTheBuff]

If ESPN isn't getting Pac inventory, as the Big 12 propaganda machine keeps trying to suggest, who do they think is filling their late and Thursday/Friday night slots? It sure as **** isn't going to be the SEC or ACC. Hope the Big 12 is ready for a lot of 9:30pm local kicks

ESPN will like the inventory but won't over pay for it.
ESPN would love nothing else than to see the PAC fail and top PAC schools fall into other conferences where TV deals are already set.

 

[InTheBuff]

Most die hard CFB fans aren't tuning into FS1/2 or ESPN2/U to watch games as is, let along the casuals, and I think it's pretty well documented that the younger generations and casuals spend more time on Apple/Amazon type services than they do on linear anyways.

There is no meaningful ratings impact because casual fans are just "stumbling" upon a Texas Tech vs Iowa State game on ESPN2. The only people watching that are fans of those programs, and journalists covering those programs.

Same can be said to those signing into Amazon or Apple.
Let's say the MWC signed a deal with Apple. Who's going to sign into Apple just to see if Fresno St is holding their own against Utah St ?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Same can be said to those signing into Amazon or Apple.
Let's say the MWC signed a deal with Apple. Who's going to sign into Apple just to see if Fresno St is holding their own against Utah St ?

So what’s your argument? That Apple/Amazon are equal to FS1/2 and ESPN2/U? I think that’s what we’re all saying

 

[Victory]

ESPN will like the inventory but won't over pay for it.
ESPN would love nothing else than to see the PAC fail and top PAC schools fall into other conferences where TV deals are already set.

Explain why ESPN would want Colorado and Arizona in the B12 to destabilize the Pac-12 which would potentially move Oregon and Washington to their biggest competitor Fox?

 

[Buffnik]

Yeah, I'm not buying that your "Group 2" is demonstrably "better" than Amazon/Apple/YouTube/etc streaming.

In fact, on any timeline longer than one or two years, I would strongly consider the possibility that the opposite may be true: viewership on those networks is trending down, and viewership on the streaming platforms is trending up.

And the "stumbling onto" argument is just dumb. We're talking a miniscule amount of viewers.

The way to stumble onto games is to watch the score ticker and see which games are close, and tune to them.

(Plus acting like "signing on" is some big, difficult painful task is just an ignorant luddite take: you're already "signed in," and it's not any more clicks to change over to watching a streaming service than it is to change from say ABC to ESPNU.)

FWIW, that's how I watch games on Saturdays the past several years. I pick the game I want to watch during a game slot. Then I have my laptop open and between the AB games thread and the CBS scoreboard (plus maybe an on-air update during what I'm watching), I'll flip to a game if it's better than the one I'm watching. But I no longer channel surf like I did a decade ago.

 

[Buffnik]

Explain why ESPN would want Colorado and Arizona in the B12 to destabilize the Pac-12 which would potentially move Oregon and Washington to their biggest competitor Fox?

Didn't ESPN/ABC get outbid by Fox for Big 12 and now has secondary choice of its inventory? I think they have no MWC now, too, so ESPN programming is very locked into SEC and ACC with very little CTZ & Western time zone inventory.

That's why it makes sense to me that they want the Pac partnership for PTZ prime time but doesn't have much interest in other Pac-12 inventory. With that, Commish K's negotiations would be to find the highest bidder to take Tier 2 and purchase PACN production inventory (studio, trucks, etc) while also making a bid for Tier 1 that pushes the ESPN offer higher.

The challenge he faces, which I think is the main cause of delay, is that there are at least 6 of 10 Pac members who don't want to commit to anything until they know there isn't a B1G deal to be made - and that's not certain now with a new B1G commissioner coming in. Plus, those Tier 2 negotiations are with potential partners who haven't done this before and include not just inventory but also infrastructure, which makes things slower and also more complex. Throw in how adding new members changes the calculus and needing to navigate that.

Given all that, it's not a big surprise that this is taking time.

 

[skibum]

FWIW, that's how I watch games on Saturdays the past several years. I pick the game I want to watch during a game slot. Then I have my laptop open and between the AB games thread and the CBS scoreboard (plus maybe an on-air update during what I'm watching), I'll flip to a game if it's better than the one I'm watching. But I no longer channel surf like I did a decade ago.

Yeah, that's exactly how I do it too. "Hey, that game looks like it's more entertaining than the one I'm watching. I'll switch to it."

And yes, sometimes that switch involves switching to a streaming service rather than just "changing the channel."

 

[InTheBuff]

Yeah, that's exactly how I do it too. "Hey, that game looks like it's more entertaining than the one I'm watching. I'll switch to it."

And yes, sometimes that switch involves switching to a streaming service rather than just "changing the channel."

Once technology allows easy clicking in and out of apps then certainly all bets are off.
But as for now I don't like it. I'm old, I'm cranky and get off my lawn.

 

[dio]

I want the most money

 

[PAHIBuff]

We need more posts on this topic. All the possibilities / bases have yet to be covered.

 

[skibum]

Once technology allows easy clicking in and out of apps then certainly all bets are off.
But as for now I don't like it. I'm old, I'm cranky and get off my lawn.

Technology currently does allow it to be easy.

But a lot of people (sounds like you're included) don't have the "right" tech to make it easy.

In time, even the sh!tty "smart TV" implementations will get it together.

Oddly, price/quality of the TV currently has little correlation to the ease of use of this function. Even high end Samsung and other manufacturers implementations are clunky as ****.

OTOH I have a "value brand" TCL with native roku, and I can switch between OTA channels and streaming services as easily as many people can move between distant channels on a traditional cable box.

 

[ahoelsken]

I think we are still a good five years to really know IF streaming is going to 'take over' when it comes to college football.
Colorado is living in the NOW. This is their audition. The Buffs need as many eyes on them as possible. Apple isn't going to do that NOW.
Maybe in 2030 things will be different but not this moment.

I keep thinking last fall when I wanted to channel surf between whatever ESPN college game that was on Thursday night VS the Amazon NFL game
and it was a royal PITA. Sure there will be those who might put the Amazon game on an IPad and watch the college game on TV at the same time but
frick. Not optimum.

I can go both ways on this topic. If a streamer essentially becomes the new P12Nets, I think that's a massive win. Prime/Apple have massive reach in that regard. I still want our Tier 1 games on linear TV.

In terms of Thursday night.......I stay away from the NFL games. I don't think its a good product-you get a lot more games that look like Broncos-Colts than Saints-Cardinals (42-34 final even though NO had 17 garbage time points in the fourth quarter). If I'm ESPN and FOX, I'm trying to do more to challenge that. Why those networks aren't doing more college stuff on Thursday is beyond me. I'll take an entertaining college game over a ****ty NFL game all day.

 

[Creebuzz]

A lot of this debate really centers around a person’s comfort level with streaming.

On Saturdays, half the time I’m on the boat anchored off a sand bar with football games streaming to my iPad. Streaming is the greatest ****ing invention ever. I have a decent size portable screen that I can take just about anywhere.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Here's some red meat to get this thread moving a little faster again!

 

[Denver_sc]

I keep thinking last fall when I wanted to channel surf between whatever ESPN college game that was on Thursday night VS the Amazon NFL game
and it was a royal PITA. Sure there will be those who might put the Amazon game on an IPad and watch the college game on TV at the same time but
frick. Not optimum.

So- every position you've taken in this thread is a reaction to this one experience?

That's how I read it.

 

[Buffnik]

Here's some red meat to get this thread moving a little faster again!

Some permutation of that would be an avalanche of dominoes.