CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[Goose]

Don't get me wrong- if WSU and Baylor compete at anything, I am a full-throated WSU supporter that day. I just don't think one can objectively argue that WSU is better than Baylor.

No. One can not.

 

[Bison]

I'm coming around (more like accepting) to the idea of the Big 12, as long as they are able to negotiate the GOR/exit fees to where it makes it relatively easy for CU to leave in 5 years.

Thought process:
1. CU is going to dominate recruiting in that conference (if Utah comes they'll be right there as well),
2. CU will be the marquee team and brand to the point where I would say they'll be on FOX, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or FS1 for the vast majority of their games, which if we're being honest, is better for exposure in 2024-2029 than Apple TV or Amazon.
3. CU's path to the playoff is easier going through TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, than going through Oregon and Washington (and Utah)
4. In theory, they should/will assert themselves as the big fish in a medium, but coast to coast, pond and probably put themselves in the best position for a B1G invite.

IMO, being the standout of a mediocre group is probably better than being #2/3/4 in an above average, but not elite, group. Even if Prime gets CU to UW, Utah and Oregon's level of competitiveness in the next couple years, I just don't see significantly more upside, as it relates to the end goal of joining the B1G, in that than (hopefully) dominating the Big 12.

Well said. I'm almost 100% certain CU is headed out the door.

 

[Bison]

Link? Where are you getting this from? Sounds a lot like somebody talking out of his ass.

https://www.si.com/college/2023/05/15/college-football-expansion-whats-next-power-5-conferences

SI article points to the Big 12 president meetings at the end of this month. May be happening this week or next week atter Memorial Day at the latest. People have been saying after Memorial Day is when things could really heat up.

Everyone's favorite tweeter MHver3 is starting to croak again after being off of Twitter for a few weeks. He started up again after Barry Trammel of the Oklahoman (who is well connected in the Big 12) posted his article about CU going back to the Big 12.

 

[Creebuzz]

It could also get stronger with additional prime time.

Additional time always has additional risk - but the risk isn't necessarily asymmetric: value can go up or down.

The way I look at it, most of the media companies are bargain hunting with the PAC. Nobody is “out“ ever, despite what some of these idiotic tweets suggest, but it’s pretty clear that there isn’t a rush to snag the PAC content before a rival does. I see all the parties holding firm right now on what they want. Is it possible for the PAC to gather more leverage at the negotiating table during the football season? Yes. But, I see the downside risk far outweighing the upside potential, personally. I’ve rarely seen the party with income that’s about to go to zero gain strength as that cliff approaches.

I think it’s also clear that CU is giving the PAC as much rope as it possibly can to stay. CU clearly wants to stay if it can work.

 

[Creebuzz]

I'm coming around (more like accepting) to the idea of the Big 12, as long as they are able to negotiate the GOR/exit fees to where it makes it relatively easy for CU to leave in 5 years.

Thought process:
1. CU is going to dominate recruiting in that conference (if Utah comes they'll be right there as well),
2. CU will be the marquee team and brand to the point where I would say they'll be on FOX, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or FS1 for the vast majority of their games, which if we're being honest, is better for exposure in 2024-2029 than Apple TV or Amazon.
3. CU's path to the playoff is easier going through TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, than going through Oregon and Washington (and Utah)
4. In theory, they should/will assert themselves as the big fish in a medium, but coast to coast, pond and probably put themselves in the best position for a B1G invite.

IMO, being the standout of a mediocre group is probably better than being #2/3/4 in an above average, but not elite, group. Even if Prime gets CU to UW, Utah and Oregon's level of competitiveness in the next couple years, I just don't see significantly more upside, as it relates to the end goal of joining the B1G, in that than (hopefully) dominating the Big 12.

I am not shilling for the Big 12, but there is another possible scenario that may provide another potential benefit for CU.

We know that ESPN would like to fill its late night slot. We know the PAC wants more than the Big 12, but the speculation is that maybe $27 million per team holds things together. At minimum, that’s $270 million. No doubt ESPN would get partners to share that $270 million, but finding the right partners is challenging since ESPN wants the tier 1 rights. Conversely, the big 12 could poach two schools (like CU and AZ) for $62 million (with Fox taking a portion too per its contract on sub rights). This would leave Colorado and Arizona to fill ESPN’s marquee night time slot. Under that scenario, the exposure for CU and AZ would be terrific.

 

[Not Sure]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/05/15/college-football-expansion-whats-next-power-5-conferences

SI article points to the Big 12 president meetings at the end of this month. May be happening this week or next week atter Memorial Day at the latest. People have been saying after Memorial Day is when things could really heat up.

Everyone's favorite tweeter MHver3 is starting to croak again after being off of Twitter for a few weeks. He started up again after Barry Trammel of the Oklahoman (who is well connected in the Big 12) posted his article about CU going back to the Big 12.

I read that entire article and I didn’t see anything that mentioned CU had given the B12 three weeks to come up with anything at all. Please show me where you’re getting that information.

CU gave the Big 12 about three weeks to look for more new members.

 

[Victory]

I'm coming around (more like accepting) to the idea of the Big 12, as long as they are able to negotiate the GOR/exit fees to where it makes it relatively easy for CU to leave in 5 years.

Thought process:
1. CU is going to dominate recruiting in that conference (if Utah comes they'll be right there as well),
2. CU will be the marquee team and brand to the point where I would say they'll be on FOX, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or FS1 for the vast majority of their games, which if we're being honest, is better for exposure in 2024-2029 than Apple TV or Amazon.
3. CU's path to the playoff is easier going through TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, than going through Oregon and Washington (and Utah)
4. In theory, they should/will assert themselves as the big fish in a medium, but coast to coast, pond and probably put themselves in the best position for a B1G invite.

IMO, being the standout of a mediocre group is probably better than being #2/3/4 in an above average, but not elite, group. Even if Prime gets CU to UW, Utah and Oregon's level of competitiveness in the next couple years, I just don't see significantly more upside, as it relates to the end goal of joining the B1G, in that than (hopefully) dominating the Big 12.

Chances B12 removes the exit fee (2 years of earnings) that runs for 99 years - 0.00%

Chances we can leave after 5 years - 0.00%

Chances we could end up in B1G or SEC or a merged conference relatively soon - >0.00%

If there’s an open door policy without an onerous exit fee + switching conferences is easy to do then sure. But we know that’s not the case on both fronts. With so much going on and CU having the hot hand, we need to play this out and not fold under pressure.

 

[Tatanka™]

I read that entire article and I didn’t see anything that mentioned CU had given the B12 three weeks to come up with anything at all. Please show me where you’re getting that information.

How dare you question his sources! He’s a realist!

 

[SINKRATZ]

Chances B12 removes the exit fee (2 years of earnings) that runs for 99 years - 0.00%

Chances we can leave after 5 years - 0.00%

Chances we could end up in B1G or SEC or a merged conference relatively soon - >0.00%

If there’s an open door policy without an onerous exit fee + switching conferences is easy to do then sure. But we know that’s not the case on both fronts. With so much going on and CU having the hot hand, we need to play this out and not fold under pressure.

It’s all a negotiation. Would the Big12 rather have CU for the next 5 years then lose us, or never have us at all?

 

[Victory]

It’s all a negotiation. Would the Big12 rather have CU for the next 5 years then lose us, or never have us at all?

I hear you but there’s no way that clause gets removed. That trap door is part of the B12 ethos. It’s a permanent decision.

 

[Big Jim]

I have it on good authority that whenever the CU administration is discussing a possible move to the B12 that they play "Hotel California" on loop to keep them focused on the long game.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Chances B12 removes the exit fee (2 years of earnings) that runs for 99 years - 0.00%

Chances we can leave after 5 years - 0.00%

Chances we could end up in B1G or SEC or a merged conference relatively soon - >0.00%

If there’s an open door policy without an onerous exit fee + switching conferences is easy to do then sure. But we know that’s not the case on both fronts. With so much going on and CU having the hot hand, we need to play this out and not fold under pressure.

Nobody is folding under pressure. There is no game of chicken going on here. CU, Arizona, ASU, Utah, etc will all know what the TV deal looks like and make decisions based on that, not speculation.

I doubt there would be $0 exit fee, but I also doubt any of the Pac 12 schools would agree to the same bull**** the others have. Regardless, when it comes time for the potential B1G offer, whatever exit fee there might be with the Big 12 isn't going to stop them from leaving, just like it didn't stop UT and OU from leaving.

 

[DBT]

Another day, another 60 posts, nothing new added. Carry on.

 

[Buffnik]

I have it on good authority that whenever the CU administration is discussing a possible move to the B12 that they play "Hotel California" on loop to keep them focused on the long game.

If CU has any leverage, I would bet we'd be trying to make sure SDSU was part of the group we came with. So Cal booster engagement is vital to the health of our athletic department (and overall university donations & student recruitment).

 

[Victory]

Nobody is folding under pressure. There is no game of chicken going on here. CU, Arizona, ASU, Utah, etc will all know what the TV deal looks like and make decisions based on that, not speculation.

I doubt there would be $0 exit fee, but I also doubt any of the Pac 12 schools would agree to the same bull**** the others have. Regardless, when it comes time for the potential B1G offer, whatever exit fee there might be with the Big 12 isn't going to stop them from leaving, just like it didn't stop UT and OU from leaving.

I think we’d have to agree to the same exit fee. Idk if there would ever be an appetite to take on a $82M exit fee. I’m estimating $31M + $10M playoff distribution x 2 years = $82M. I just don’t see that as a fungible line item. Texas and OU got a deal with ESPN for a number of reasons. We will not get that kind of exit fee forgiveness.

The problem with the B12 - aside from its massively concentrated with leftover Texas and Oklahoma schools and G5s and the ridiculous exit fee - is there is a cap. It’s $31M. I don’t see a path for them increasing it with those brands. Are they banking on inflation? Those brands objectively suck from a national interest perspective. The cap could potentially decrease.

The other conferences? Apparently no cap. The amount of money that’s going to continue to pour into B1G and SEC is crazy. We got Prime and that gets us into the conversation. We will fund FB. We show results and I think our options open up.

 

[SINKRATZ]

I hear you but there’s no way that clause gets removed. That trap door is part of the B12 ethos. It’s a permanent decision.

Let me rephrase - there is a 0.0% chance CU is signing up for a 99 year GOR in the Big12 unless they are totally convinced the PAC is about to fold (and even then I’m not so sure). They’re not locking themselves into that conference for multiple generations if the media deal is just a little better.

 

[patebuff]

TSchlekler on the board!

 

[Victory]

Let me rephrase - there is a 0.0% chance CU is signing up for a 99 year GOR in the Big12 unless they are totally convinced the PAC is about to fold (and even then I’m not so sure). They’re not locking themselves into that conference for multiple generations if the media deal is just a little better.

Agree on all counts. Honestly we would go crazy in the B12. I would fear for our collective IQs. Someone @ mentioned me in a MBG post on Twitter. He asked if I’d want to go back to the B12 and instead of answering I asked him if he thinks Iowa is a good fit for the B12 and if they should join the B12.

My thought on this is show me how different Iowa is than Colorado? We’re not very different academically, geographically or athletically. We both have some kind of rival in the B12 but not a real one. We’re peer institutions and peers want to be with… peers. The same way KSU is a peer of OK St, ISU, TTU etc. This is what he writes back.

 

[hokiehead]

I didn't see mention of this topic on Allbuffs. I believe this has the potential to lead to radical changes in college sports, including realignment, on a scale simliar to NIL and transfers.

For those who have been commenting about nothing new ITT, this should give something to chew on.

and, I have to admit, the prospect that this could absolutely fck over the private schools and potentially not the publics has me giddy.

The National Labor Relations Board targeted the NCAA, Pac-12, and USC in a complaint filed last Thursday saying that college athletes should be treated as employees.

The complaint alleged that USC’s media policies violated labor laws.

link

The University of Southern California, a major sports conference and the governing body of big-time collegiate athletics are violating federal labor law by restricting athletes’ social media activity, the National Labor Relations Board alleged on Thursday.

An NLRB official in Los Angeles issued a complaint against USC, the Pac-12 Conference and the National Collegiate Athletics Association in a case that could clear the way to unionization — at least at private universities that are subject to National Labor Relations Act.
...

The NLRB’s complaint alleges the three entities maintained illegal “handbook rules” that violate federal statute, and misclassify both scholarship and walk-on athletes in football and basketball as non-employees, thereby denying them their right to unionize.

link

 

[Darth Snow]

Durn

 

[Gary Indiana]

I'm coming around (more like accepting) to the idea of the Big 12, as long as they are able to negotiate the GOR/exit fees to where it makes it relatively easy for CU to leave in 5 years.

Thought process:
1. CU is going to dominate recruiting in that conference (if Utah comes they'll be right there as well),
2. CU will be the marquee team and brand to the point where I would say they'll be on FOX, ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 or FS1 for the vast majority of their games, which if we're being honest, is better for exposure in 2024-2029 than Apple TV or Amazon.
3. CU's path to the playoff is easier going through TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, than going through Oregon and Washington (and Utah)
4. In theory, they should/will assert themselves as the big fish in a medium, but coast to coast, pond and probably put themselves in the best position for a B1G invite.

IMO, being the standout of a mediocre group is probably better than being #2/3/4 in an above average, but not elite, group. Even if Prime gets CU to UW, Utah and Oregon's level of competitiveness in the next couple years, I just don't see significantly more upside, as it relates to the end goal of joining the B1G, in that than (hopefully) dominating the Big 12.

Dude. Your ascent into full Tini is complete! Like little Forest shattering those leg braces, you’ve finally hit your full stride into detached from all reality sunshine pumper.

I look forward to seeing your post on MBG in the near future.

 

[goalline]

Dude. Your ascent into full Tini is complete! Like little Forest shattering those leg braces, you’ve finally hit your full stride into detached from all reality sunshine pumper.

I look forward to seeing your post on MBG in the near future.

Your prediction was 10 minutes after it’s fulfillment was posted in this thread.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Dude. Your ascent into full Tini is complete! Like little Forest shattering those leg braces, you’ve finally hit your full stride into detached from all reality sunshine pumper.

I look forward to seeing your post on MBG in the near future.

1. What did I say that is detached from reality?
2. It's already on MBG

 

[Gary Indiana]

Your prediction was 10 minutes after it’s fulfillment was posted in this thread.

Ha, that’s fantastic. I just clicked reply to his post without reading on further.

 

[Sammy11]

Let me rephrase - there is a 0.0% chance CU is signing up for a 99 year GOR in the Big12 unless they are totally convinced the PAC is about to fold (and even then I’m not so sure). They’re not locking themselves into that conference for multiple generations if the media deal is just a little better.

Baylor fan here (*ducks*)

Just to clear up a misconception.

The Big 12 has both an exit fee and a GOR.

GOR is for whatever term the length of the media deal happens to be. So not the 99 year thing.

Exit fee is 2 years of league distributions should you leave before 99 years is up. Typically that ends up being a starting point before things get negotiated down.

Regardless of whether y'all come back to the Big 12 I am hoping to see you have some success under Sanders.

 

[leftybuff]

TSchlekler on the board!

That looks a lot like what the Yak posted...plagiarists unite!

 

[Jello Bear]

Baylor fan here (*ducks*)

Just to clear up a misconception.

The Big 12 has both an exit fee and a GOR.

GOR is for whatever term the length of the media deal happens to be. So not the 99 year thing.

Exit fee is 2 years of league distributions should you leave before 99 years is up. Typically that ends up being a starting point before things get negotiated down.

Regardless of whether y'all come back to the Big 12 I am hoping to see you have some success under Sanders.

**** Bailer.


Now, where's my sammich?

 

[Uncle Ken]

Baylor fan here (*ducks*)

Just to clear up a misconception.

The Big 12 has both an exit fee and a GOR.

GOR is for whatever term the length of the media deal happens to be. So not the 99 year thing.

Exit fee is 2 years of league distributions should you leave before 99 years is up. Typically that ends up being a starting point before things get negotiated down.

Regardless of whether y'all come back to the Big 12 I am hoping to see you have some success under Sanders.

Thank you for that insight. **** bailer.

 

[Bison]

 

[Buffnik]

I'm fine with Wilner casting shade on Phil.

He's been so over the top in attacking the Pac 12 chancellors, though, that he comes across as minimizing or even excusing blame from Larry Scott and team.