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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

A merger with ACC doesn’t work. Why would the networks pay more for the P12 and ACC together than they are willing to pay to the conferences individually? Somebody from the P12 is getting relegated to the MWC under a combined ACC / P12.
What if it’s not a merger and just a scheduling agreement. Meaning, both conferences drop to 8 league games to make room for one guaranteed P12/ACC game a year for each team. Is that even possible? Idk.
 
This is quality a** talking. SBJ predicts Apple will buy ESPN in 2024.

 
They will pump the SEC but they also have to honor contract inventory with the SECN & ESPN+ which combined for almost 52% of their inventory last year. 1 game per team on ESPN+ and 38% on SECN.

ABC/ESPN lost 27 Big Ten games and 5 BYU games since last year.
They added 15 SEC games before Texas and OU joined. From there those two add 15 games and some of that will get earmarked for SECN & ESPN+ contractually.

Similarly the ACC has a TON of inventory on ACCN or regional syndication/streaming- nearly 2/3 of the inventory.

They'll have competition for good windows on ABC/ESPN for sure but it's honestly less inventory in their programming than they used to have even before we look at them potentially passing on the PAC and the 21 games they had. They'll put the biggest brands on first of course but the Big 12 will get solid windows on par with what they had for the most part- the broadcaster has fewer games overall.

FOX has a lot of inventory to fill for FOX & FS1. They only get 32 Big Ten games and 14 are earmarked for Big Noon Saturday.

However with NBC/CBS paying up for Big Ten exclusivity on non-cable in the afternoon and prime time windows that leaves 14 weeks of FOX afternoon and roughly half of that (MLB conflicts) in Prime time that is wide open and the only competition for the Big 12 on FOX is the MWC unless the PAC somehow gets FOX back to the table. The MWC isn't much competition.

Additionally there will still be plenty of spots on FS1.
Food for thought.





So you dont have to click in….

No conference for college football games performs at a high level when playing games on cable. A high level performance is 4 million viewers or more. No conference comes close to that when they play games on ESPN, ESPN2, BTN, ACCN, SECN, etc.

However, when a game is played on OTA (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX), the Big Ten and SEC perform to the golden standard.

The Pac-12 and Big 12 are low-performing TV draws on cable and OTA.

IMO, it was a mistake for the SEC to leave CBS. The data is clear that even SEC teams have less viewership on cable channels.

The SEC leaving CBS will be the Big Ten's gain.

For Big Ten expansion, the data that I am sharing in this tweet should be used a positive selling point to the ACC schools. Join a conference that has a TV contract with just over 46% of all games played on OTA.

People argue that a college football only breakaway for the Big Ten and SEC will lead to a loss of viewers. The data does not support that argeuement at all. College football is already P2 viewership based.

The top performing TV draw for a school with no future in a P2 is Lousville at 20th in the country. The next two non-P2 schools are Oregon State and Oregon at 30th and 31st in the country.

College football viewership is already P2 based.
 
This is quality a** talking. SBJ predicts Apple will buy ESPN in 2024.

I dont think its that surprising.

Jack Welch made a killing at GE for decades off of GE Financial and juicing quarterly earnings from that division. When 2008 happened financial nearly destroyed GE and at the end NBC was sold along with GE appliances to pay the bill. ESPN was a revenue giant for Disney in much the same way. Peak cable was around 2011 with 110,000,000 homes paying Disney $8 or $9 per month. Thats a lot of money. Cord cutting is wiping that revenue out.


While Disney has many operating units that interconnect to create a flywheel effect, their cable networks still comprise a third of their revenues. When looking at profits, networks disproportionately make up $8.5 billion of their overall $12.1 billion in operating income, presenting material downside risk if things go wrong here. This sets a higher hurdle for streaming to not only become profitable, but to make up for declines in their traditional cable business.



Apple meanwhile wants to get into TV and has a ton of money. If Apple can get Disney to include ABC in the deal that would be epic
 
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Food for thought.





So you dont have to click in….

No conference for college football games performs at a high level when playing games on cable. A high level performance is 4 million viewers or more. No conference comes close to that when they play games on ESPN, ESPN2, BTN, ACCN, SECN, etc.

However, when a game is played on OTA (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX), the Big Ten and SEC perform to the golden standard.

The Pac-12 and Big 12 are low-performing TV draws on cable and OTA.

IMO, it was a mistake for the SEC to leave CBS. The data is clear that even SEC teams have less viewership on cable channels.

The SEC leaving CBS will be the Big Ten's gain.

For Big Ten expansion, the data that I am sharing in this tweet should be used a positive selling point to the ACC schools. Join a conference that has a TV contract with just over 46% of all games played on OTA.

People argue that a college football only breakaway for the Big Ten and SEC will lead to a loss of viewers. The data does not support that argeuement at all. College football is already P2 viewership based.

The top performing TV draw for a school with no future in a P2 is Lousville at 20th in the country. The next two non-P2 schools are Oregon State and Oregon at 30th and 31st in the country.

College football viewership is already P2 based.

I'm supposed to believe that Oregon State is a bigger TV draw than Washington and Utah, let alone Miami, Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc? Also that Louisville is a bigger draw than Oregon and those other ACC schools?
 
I dont think its that surprising.

Jack Welch made a killing at GE for decades off of GE Financial and juicing quarterly earnings from that division. When 2008 happened financial nearly destroyed GE and at the end NBC was sold along with GE appliances to pay the bill. ESPN was a revenue giant for Disney in much the same way. Peak cable was around 2011 with 110,000,000 homes paying Disney $8 or $9 per month. Thats a lot of money. Cord cutting is wiping that revenue out.


While Disney has many operating units that interconnect to create a flywheel effect, their cable networks still comprise a third of their revenues. When looking at profits, networks disproportionately make up $8.5 billion of their overall $12.1 billion in operating income, presenting material downside risk if things go wrong here. This sets a higher hurdle for streaming to not only become profitable, but to make up for declines in their traditional cable business.



Apple meanwhile wants to get into TV and has a ton of money. If Apple can get Disney to include ABC in the deal that would be epic
They did have Bob Iger present w/ Tim Cook at the WWDC Vision Pro intro yesterday.
 
This is quality a** talking. SBJ predicts Apple will buy ESPN in 2024.


Hmmm...did you look at the article's date?
 
I'm supposed to believe that Oregon State is a bigger TV draw than Washington and Utah, let alone Miami, Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc? Also that Louisville is a bigger draw than Oregon and those other ACC schools?
I dont know if that was a typo or what. But this appears to be the data he used…


OrStU 2022
Wk1 v BSU-1.25m,
wk6 v Stanford-1.08m,
wk10 v UW-1.13m,
wk12 v ASU-484k,
wk13 v UO-3.56m,
Bowl v UF- 2.5m
 
Closing in on 400 pages and where we are is exactly where we started:

1. It's an incredibly long shot that the B1G or SEC would further expand at this time.
2. It's an even longer shot that if they did it would include CU.
3. It's an incredibly long shot that the ACC could navigate around its GOR at this time.
4. It's an even longer shot that if they did it would result in a new conference merger with Pac teams.
5. It's been disheartening to hear what is likely to be earned in a new Pac media deal.
6. It's likely that CU stays in the Pac if that media deal materializes within the range of the ACC and Big 12 deals.
7. It's likely that CU bolts for the Big 12 if the Pac presents a media deal that's not within range of the ACC and Big 12.
8. It's almost certain that we'll see hundreds of additional posts before this is decided.
It’s a resilient thread.
 
Well he did put it into an Excel spreadsheet. It doesn't get more believable than that!
Yes, he had two columns and then a third column that said Grand Total and it was not obvious how that was calculated since it was smaller than the other 2. After that I am pretty sure the guy is an idiot.
 
Yes, he had two columns and then a third column that said Grand Total and it was not obvious how that was calculated since it was smaller than the other 2. After that I am pretty sure the guy is an idiot.
I would assume network execs put the very best games on OTA v cable since theyre expected to draw well. So yeah, OTA is bigger.

His point about B1G having more OTA slots (Fox, CBS, NBC) v Cable slots is just something we will have to see play out over time. But its probably more valuable eye balls wise then any of the other conferences have.
 
Food for thought.





So you dont have to click in….

No conference for college football games performs at a high level when playing games on cable. A high level performance is 4 million viewers or more. No conference comes close to that when they play games on ESPN, ESPN2, BTN, ACCN, SECN, etc.

However, when a game is played on OTA (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX), the Big Ten and SEC perform to the golden standard.

The Pac-12 and Big 12 are low-performing TV draws on cable and OTA.

IMO, it was a mistake for the SEC to leave CBS. The data is clear that even SEC teams have less viewership on cable channels.

The SEC leaving CBS will be the Big Ten's gain.

For Big Ten expansion, the data that I am sharing in this tweet should be used a positive selling point to the ACC schools. Join a conference that has a TV contract with just over 46% of all games played on OTA.

People argue that a college football only breakaway for the Big Ten and SEC will lead to a loss of viewers. The data does not support that argeuement at all. College football is already P2 viewership based.

The top performing TV draw for a school with no future in a P2 is Lousville at 20th in the country. The next two non-P2 schools are Oregon State and Oregon at 30th and 31st in the country.

College football viewership is already P2 based.

This definitely feels like a “how to lie with statistics” analysis. No factoring opponent or time slot or anything meaningful. It’s interesting data but that’s about it
 
I still love the concept of an ACC-PAC alliance to form a new conference.

Starting at 16 teams for the media deal:

West
Colorado
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington

East
Miami
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Clemson
North Carolina
NC State
Virginia
Virginia Tech

I don't know that the media revenue for each member would quite get to what the B1G and SEC programs are getting per year, but it would be in the ballpark. And if the conference lost anyone to B1G/SEC expansion, there would be options to poach and expand from the Big 12 along with some other programs including former conference affiliates and some G5s/ Independents.

I actually question why this hasn't happened when you consider the financial windfall the schools who entered this would realize. And if we're talking about doubling media revenue, as is likely, that trumps any lip service any of these schools pay to solidarity with current conference brethren.

Edit: Also, because I can't resist - the other option is 4 pods instead of 2 divisions.
1 - Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington
2 - Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State
3 - Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson
4 - North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, VA Tech
Each pod plays each other every year for 3 games. Then you play 2 games (home & away) with each of the other 3 pods for another 6 games. It basically results in 2 long road trips per year for everyone to the other side of the country, so it's really not bad and certainly not the problem many assume at first blush for such a geographically separated conference.
(In hoops and other sports, I think you do divisions instead of pods to minimize travel within the scheduling and save money.)
 
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This definitely feels like a “how to lie with statistics” analysis. No factoring opponent or time slot or anything meaningful. It’s interesting data but that’s about it
I commented a couple of posts back.

However he doesnt appear to be wrong that the B1G has set itself up with more broadcast rights v cable or pure streaming then any other conference. The B1G has been WAY ahead of everyone else for two decades now. Cable has fallen from 110m households to 60m In just over a decade Pure Streamings services numbers for sports are trash atm. So if you want to reach the masses broadcast is probably it. The B1G seems to understand the market better then any other conf.
 
The best part of this thread are the posts where people like to make up fantasy conferences and fantasy divisions.

Its at this point that Ill suggest a hobby you can control versus one you cant.
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The best part of this thread are the posts where people like to make up fantasy conferences and fantasy divisions.

Its at this point that Ill suggest a hobby you can control versus one you cant.
Nah, the best part of this thread are all the people who continue to read every post and comment about how lame the thread is instead of just shutting the **** up.
 
The best part of this thread are the posts where people like to make up fantasy conferences and fantasy divisions.

Its at this point that Ill suggest a hobby you can control versus one you cant.
@Buffnik has been making up scenarios like that since I joined the board 10 years ago. If he didn’t have this thread he’d find another one to drop that post. Probably, the ‘searching for sex’ thread.
 
A lot of conflicting reports about the B12 and Yormark on adding UConn and Gonzaga. Enjoying the misinformation pointed elsewhere.


I saw that too.

Maybe some jealousy? Maybe those 8 programs dont like being relegated to streaming only? Maybe Yormark was incentivized to do the bidding for espn (we need more ppl on espn+)?

In men’s basketball, all regular season and exhibition games from the eight participating programs that are not distributed on ESPN’s traditional television networks will be available exclusively on Big 12 Now on ESPN+.


 
Nah, the best part of this thread are all the people who continue to read every post and comment about how lame the thread is instead of just shutting the **** up.
Given CUs position, This thread is extremely lame make no mistake.

The palace intrigue and the search for hope seems to bring us back.
 
The best part of this thread are the posts where people like to make up fantasy conferences and fantasy divisions.

Its at this point that Ill suggest a hobby you can control versus one you cant.

Maybe if we hit 12,000 posts in this thread, CU will finally make the announcement that they are either staying in the P12 or leaving for the B12. :LOL:

I'm thinking the lack of a new college football video game for 10 years has led people to find something else to enjoy their favorite sport. Fear not, the new EA CFB game that is scheduled to come out next year might quiet things down on forums.

A lot of conflicting reports about the B12 and Yormark on adding UConn and Gonzaga. Enjoying the misinformation pointed elsewhere.

I recall a lot of misinformation flying around right before CU announced its departure from the B12. Part of that could be attributed to Baylor making noise about why they should go to the then Pac-10 instead of CU.
 
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