CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

[ScreamingBeagle]

I saw that rumor too and it's that FSU's total buyout would be $300 million. OTOH MHver is saying there's nothing to the FSU/Clemson to the B1G rumors. So take it all FWIW.

My guess is that Arizona to the Big 12 gets announced today or tomorrow and that's the end of conference movement for now. Although I don't understand why UO and UW would stay in the Pac but it seems to be leaning that way.

That's not how I interpreted MHVER3 post. Again taking anything he says with a grain of salt I feel like this was blatant reference to the end of The Wizard of Oz.

The ACC rumors are a misdirect. Don't look behind the curtain means, I don't want you seeing what is going on behind the scene, but whatever it is, its probably what's driving everything.

I have always felt the threats by FSU credible or not are an attempt to force ESPN to work something out with the SEC.

 

[Uncle Ken]

Average attendance per win is an absurd statistic. It just underscores how utterly horrible our program has been.

Yeah, that's rough.

 

[Denver_sc]

The Tuesday meeting is what I've heard.
Arizona is right now at the point CU was at the Thursday right before PAC Media Day.
Once AZ enters the B12 it will be interesting to see if there's a few week lull in hopes that Oregon and Washington come. They are preferable to ASU and Utah.

Firstly, I want to post that I gave you a lot of **** in this thread. You were (and still are) annoying AF about this Big12 stuff, but you were right (eventually).

Secondly, I've thought a lot about how ****ed ASU and Utah are if the B12 were to add AZ, UO, and UW, but if that other scenario happens (four corners), how ****ed are UW And UO? I have heard various things, but the general consensus seems to be that they have no deal, half share or not, to go to the B1G. If that's true, and the B12 is truly "full" for now at 16 with the four corner schools added, then what options do they have?

If the best offer the P12 truly had was $20M/year per school, I can't imagine that number going up without CU/ASU/AZ/UU. Can you imagine UO and UW playing in a 6 team league for about 2/3rds of what UCF is going to get?!

 

[Buffnik]

Firstly, I want to post that I gave you a lot of **** in this thread. You were (and still are) annoying AF about this Big12 stuff, but you were right (eventually).

Secondly, I've thought a lot about how ****ed ASU and Utah are if the B12 were to add AZ, UO, and UW, but if that other scenario happens (four corners), how ****ed are UW And UO? I have heard various things, but the general consensus seems to be that they have no deal, half share or not, to go to the B1G. If that's true, and the B12 is truly "full" for now at 16 with the four corner schools added, then what options do they have?

If the best offer the P12 truly had was $20M/year per school, I can't imagine that number going up without CU/ASU/AZ/UU. Can you imagine UO and UW playing in a 6 team league for about 2/3rds of what UCF is going to get?!

I think they believe they can backfill to 8 members through G5.

At an average of $20M per school, they'd push unequal shares and that the G5s would make more than they currently do while having a clear path to the playoff.

$20M x 8 = $160M

UW & UO @ $30M = $60M
Cal, Furd @ $20M = $40M
OSU, WSU + 2 @ $15M = $60M
Total = $160M

Would Rice & Tulane take this as teams 7&8?

 

[Hank]

Firstly, I want to post that I gave you a lot of **** in this thread. You were (and still are) annoying AF about this Big12 stuff, but you were right (eventually).

Secondly, I've thought a lot about how ****ed ASU and Utah are if the B12 were to add AZ, UO, and UW, but if that other scenario happens (four corners), how ****ed are UW And UO? I have heard various things, but the general consensus seems to be that they have no deal, half share or not, to go to the B1G. If that's true, and the B12 is truly "full" for now at 16 with the four corner schools added, then what options do they have?

If the best offer the P12 truly had was $20M/year per school, I can't imagine that number going up without CU/ASU/AZ/UU. Can you imagine UO and UW playing in a 6 team league for about 2/3rds of what UCF is going to get?!

If AZ, ASU, and UU left, I think you could just add schools like SDSU and UNLV and still have a conference - a diminished conference, but one that is at least viable. If UW and Oregon are gone, I think it's almost a certainty the conference is toast.

 

[Bread]

Should have used a car analogy or something. Because Arizona State women are hot so this doesn't track.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I think they believe they can backfill to 8 members through G5.

At an average of $20M per school, they'd push unequal shares and that the G5s would make more than they currently do while having a clear path to the playoff.

$20M x 8 = $160M

UW & UO @ $30M = $60M
Cal, Furd @ $20M = $40M
OSU, WSU + 2 @ $15M = $60M
Total = $160M

Would Rice & Tulane take this as teams 7&8?

This is what I was thinking and that is probably preferable to UW and UO as they would basically play each other for 24 and 25 seasons for the right to go to CFP. However, the CFP is being renegotiated for 2026, and I'm not sure conference champ autobids will be a thing going forward, so unless they are able to jump to B1G at that point, that Pac 8 feels like it would slowly be relegated to G5

 

[Big Jim]

I'm confused about the scumdevil and utes talk. If the mildcats are added, but ducks and huskies go elsewhere, what value is there in Utah and asu? They aren't going anywhere.

Because they elevate the B12 membership over where it stands today.

 

[SotaBuff]

I've been to Ames. The tailgating out there is UNREAL. That fanbase is fun, and they're very welcoming to away team fanbases. Hung out at one of their tailgates, played cornhole with a bunch of Cyclone fans, and drank.

I'll go back. Hopefully no tornado warning or whatever the **** that was next time.

Absolutely agree with this.

Have been to a few games at Jack Trice along with a few tailgates. Many just go to tailgate and don’t care about the games.

Happy that the Buffs will be playing a short three hour drive from me in Ames.

Going to head to every game I can with my many ISU alumni buddies.

 

[hawg1]

True, in fact I keep hearing that whenever schools want to review the GOR they have to go to Greensboro to read it.

I don’t get that part. The grant is to the ACC not ESPN.

 

[hawg1]

$20 million per school and 100% Apple has been the rumors.

I assume that is for 9 schools with lower tiers if others bolt.

 

[GoBuffs08]

I think they believe they can backfill to 8 members through G5.

At an average of $20M per school, they'd push unequal shares and that the G5s would make more than they currently do while having a clear path to the playoff.

$20M x 8 = $160M

UW & UO @ $30M = $60M
Cal, Furd @ $20M = $40M
OSU, WSU + 2 @ $15M = $60M
Total = $160M

Would Rice & Tulane take this as teams 7&8?

Those numbers have Cal, OSU and WSU screwed. Somewhere feels like 200 pages ago there was a post from WSU AD saying they were budgeting around $33 million for 2025. And doesn't Cal have a huge AD budget deficit? $20 mill a year, Cal either needs huge boosters to step up, or they are dropping many sports.

 

[ahoelsken]

Absolutely agree with this.

Have been to a few games at Jack Trice along with a few tailgates. Many just go to tailgate and don’t care about the games.

Happy that the Buffs will be playing a short three hour drive from me in Ames.

Going to head to every game I can with my many ISU alumni buddies.

I'm gonna go back out there for sure. I actually like Manhattan, Lawrence, Stillwater, Ames, and Lubbock. **** Wacko though.

 

[InTheBuff]

If AZ, ASU, and UU left, I think you could just add schools like SDSU and UNLV and still have a conference - a diminished conference, but one that is at least viable. If UW and Oregon are gone, I think it's almost a certainty the conference is toast.

Ummm....there's a $34 million dollar exit fee for any MWC school. That's the elephant in the room.

 

[pmoney52]

What does that do to UA basketball?

That program gets left in a conference with no good basketball brands, the AD gets $12m/year less, and is only accessed on Apple TV. I think that has the possibility of relegated that program to mid pretty quickly

I hear Apple TV is big in Lithuania

 

[H.E. Pennypacker]

Ummm....there's a $34 million dollar exit fee for any MWC school. That's the elephant in the room.

Meaning the PAC would have to take the #of teams it takes for a vote to get out.

 

[Victory]

CU (and probably Arizona, ASU and Utah) have known for a long time, they have a $31.7m/year payday and ESPN and FOX as a fall back. When Kliavkoff is presenting low to mid $20m/year and mostly Apple TV, there has been no incentive for those programs to accept anything less.

If the money gap is that big then there’s no argument for staying.

BUT if the money is remotely similar (big but ) I don’t think UA or ASU care about exposure like CU. They know they don’t deserve prime time ESPN and Fox like we do.

It’s the only scenario I could see them staying. Money is a little less and they are fine with mostly streaming. Seems unlikely.

Oregon and Washington are the two that would have the biggest issue with exposure imo.

 

[BUFFset]

$20 million per school and 100% Apple has been the rumors.

There are Pac 12 office and network production overhead cooked into that as well. Minus office and production costs (w/ the 'Chards) they're looking at equal shares: [200-12.5-(3x9)]/9 = $17.83M on the $200M Apple streaming deal and the rumored overhead #s. The pie to divy from that deal is roughly $160M.

 

[Dark Bohner]

Yep, only way PAC 12 survives is the have nots take what they are given and there is enough leftover for the haves…and the broadcasting exposure is good enough.

Just not seeing it.

 

[skibum]

Ummm....there's a $34 million dollar exit fee for any MWC school. That's the elephant in the room.

The pac just has to add enough MWC teams to get that exit fee reduced.

The exit fee isn't written in stone with no possibility of changing it, ever, just like the ACC's grant of rights can be changed with enough votes, I'm 100% certain the MWC's exit fees can be reduced with enough votes.

The relevant question is "how many votes?"

At a minmum, it's 7, but could be 8 or 9. Zero chance it's unanimous unless every school employs the same lawyer that drafted the HC buyout language for CU.

So, assume the PAC 9 is the PAC 6 in a couple weeks.

If they add 8 MWC teams, there's a good chance the MWC "exit fee" magically becomes $1, and Viola! the PAC lives on with 14 members.

SJSU, and Utah State are the only obvious "they'll be left out" schools in that scenario. The next two left out would tell you how much the pac6 cared about academics vs revenue IMO.

 

[Denver_sc]

I think they believe they can backfill to 8 members through G5.

At an average of $20M per school, they'd push unequal shares and that the G5s would make more than they currently do while having a clear path to the playoff.

$20M x 8 = $160M

UW & UO @ $30M = $60M
Cal, Furd @ $20M = $40M
OSU, WSU + 2 @ $15M = $60M
Total = $160M

Would Rice & Tulane take this as teams 7&8?

It looks like the AAC distributed about $55M in the most recently reported year to 12 members, and it's unequal. Cincinnati got the most at around $7-8M, so Tulane was below that. The increased travel costs are probably more than offset by the increase in media distribution. Add to that that the AAC is in flux with so many departures and new arrivals, but the media contract does go through 2031 so it's probably a wash. I've no idea what the exit fee structure is.

Rice is just getting ready to move to the AAC, so one would wonder if they'd have to pay any exit fee. They'd probably jump at the chance.

That deal would make sense for both OSU and WSU since their best alternative would seem to be the MWC, but they'd probably gnash their teeth at the thought of signing up to make half of what their respective big brother makes.

A potential fly in the ointment, to me, is whether Stanford (and maybe Cal) would prefer to go that route rather than just going independent.

But, at the end of the day, that's bigger deal is whether anyone's going to pay $15M per year for Rice football.

Actually, the more I think about this, the more I love it from a schadenfreude perspective. It probably is the best option for every school involved, but every school involved (except maybe Tulane and Rice) would HATE it.

 

[leftybuff]

The pac just has to add enough MWC teams to get that exit fee reduced.

The exit fee isn't written in stone with no possibility of changing it, ever, just like the ACC's grant of rights can be changed with enough votes, I'm 100% certain the MWC's exit fees can be reduced with enough votes.

The relevant question is "how many votes?"

At a minmum, it's 7, but could be 8 or 9. Zero chance it's unanimous unless every school employs the same lawyer that drafted the HC buyout language for CU.

So, assume the PAC 9 is the PAC 6 in a couple weeks.

If they add 8 MWC teams, there's a good chance the MWC "exit fee" magically becomes $1, and Viola! the PAC lives on with 14 members.

SJSU, and Utah State are the only obvious "they'll be left out" schools in that scenario. The next two left out would tell you how much the pac6 cared about academics vs revenue IMO.

If that happens, why would the Pac be in the CFP pool? Oregon and Washington wouldn't have a easier path to the CFP, they would have greased slip and slide to a conference championship and an argument to be included in the CFP. IMO, that would be BS as none of the mtn. weenie teams are any kind of national competiton.

 

[Dark Bohner]

The pac just has to add enough MWC teams to get that exit fee reduced.

The exit fee isn't written in stone with no possibility of changing it, ever, just like the ACC's grant of rights can be changed with enough votes, I'm 100% certain the MWC's exit fees can be reduced with enough votes.

The relevant question is "how many votes?"

At a minmum, it's 7, but could be 8 or 9. Zero chance it's unanimous unless every school employs the same lawyer that drafted the HC buyout language for CU.

So, assume the PAC 9 is the PAC 6 in a couple weeks.

If they add 8 MWC teams, there's a good chance the MWC "exit fee" magically becomes $1, and Viola! the PAC lives on with 14 members.

SJSU, and Utah State are the only obvious "they'll be left out" schools in that scenario. The next two left out would tell you how much the pac6 cared about academics vs revenue IMO.

lol at that point would that conference even command more than the MW in media revenue?

 

[Victory]

The pac just has to add enough MWC teams to get that exit fee reduced.

The exit fee isn't written in stone with no possibility of changing it, ever, just like the ACC's grant of rights can be changed with enough votes, I'm 100% certain the MWC's exit fees can be reduced with enough votes.

The relevant question is "how many votes?"

At a minmum, it's 7, but could be 8 or 9. Zero chance it's unanimous unless every school employs the same lawyer that drafted the HC buyout language for CU.

So, assume the PAC 9 is the PAC 6 in a couple weeks.

If they add 8 MWC teams, there's a good chance the MWC "exit fee" magically becomes $1, and Viola! the PAC lives on with 14 members.

SJSU, and Utah State are the only obvious "they'll be left out" schools in that scenario. The next two left out would tell you how much the pac6 cared about academics vs revenue IMO.

Ironic bc my theory is SDSU is one of the reason why we left. I have no evidence to back this but I could see Cal and Stanford blocking SDSU bc they wanted to wait for USC and UCLA to come back in 7 years. And with no SoCal school on the horizon we said f this s.

 

[Jello Bear]

If the best offer the P12 truly had was $20M/year per school, I can't imagine that number going up without CU/ASU/AZ/UU. Can you imagine UO and UW playing in a 6 team league for about 2/3rds of what UCF is going to get?!

I want to tag our resident Fuskie trolls but looks like @MikDabone and @PurpleReign are untaggable, dammit.

EDIT: Ooh, maybe they ARE taggable. Lesgo.

 

[skibum]

lol at that point would that conference even command more than the MW in media revenue?

Probably, even if it's just branding.

But not a lot more.

Look at it this way:
Do you think ASU, Cal, Furd, WSU, OSU and UU drive more viewers than SJSU, USU, UNM & UNR?

Almost assuredly, but we're talking percentages not multiples.

And to answer @leftybuff 's question: the playoff contractually is what is for 2 more years, but damn straight that would change in the next iteration.

 

[Not Sure]

All this talk about the PAC backfilling with Tulane is annoying me greatly. They should be in the B12. They’re right there. Sitting there. The greatest roadie location on Gods Green Earth and we are just conceding them to the PAC? Shameful.

 

[leftybuff]

All this talk about the PAC backfilling with Tulane is annoying me greatly. They should be in the B12. They’re right there. Sitting there. The greatest roadie location on Gods Green Earth and we are just conceding them to the PAC? Shameful.

You can still visit NO without CUFB, just thought I would let you know.

 

[jaybird]

If that happens, why would the Pac be in the CFP pool? Oregon and Washington wouldn't have a easier path to the CFP, they would have greased slip and slide to a conference championship and an argument to be included in the CFP. IMO, that would be BS as none of the mtn. weenie teams are any kind of national competiton.

Well, until 2026 they could be. The autobids go to the best 6 conferences, whatever those top 6 are. Do they make the cut? Probably. 2026 and beyond? Well, no one knows what the structure of the playoffs will look like at that point, so who knows.

 

[Not Sure]

You can still visit NO without CUFB, just thought I would let you know.

Yeah. I know. But it’s always nice to have an excuse. “Sorry to be heading to New Orleans without you honey, but it’s a football trip and you probably wouldn’t want to come along anyway.”