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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

Leon Sandcastle said:
Correct. A lot of football fans could give a rip about soccer. Going after football presents a good market segmentation opportunity
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Soccer is the most watched sport globally. Some college conference being on AppleTV brings football and universities into millions of new living rooms globally will have some impact.

The MLS being on in the US during Europes off season is probably getting watched over there. Apple is believed to have helped bring Messi to the MLS. If Coach Prime turns out to be the hot thing nothing is to stop Apple from getting him to a program in their fold by doubling or tripling his pay. The thing with some of these big tech companies is they have outrageous piles of money on hand compared to the traditional media companies.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
Soccer is the most watched sport globally. Some college conference being on AppleTV brings football and universities into millions of new living rooms globally.

The MLS being on in the US during Europes off season is probably getting watched over there. I mean Apple is believed to have helped bring Messi to the MLS. If Coach Prime turns out to be the hot thing nothing is to stop Apple from getting him to a program in their fold by doubling his pay.
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Nobody here is paying for MLS.
 
Jens1893 said:
Say they need to get like 250-300m a year from subscriptions ... can they get 2.5m people at 100 USD or 1m at 250 USD?
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If you trust what mhver3 says, $1 PER subscription, not a percentage of the subscription cost. I missed that it was quarterly so they'd need less than the 110 million subscriptions to break even, but I imagine there will be a ton of people that will cancel their subscription after football season is over and turn it back on the next fall.
 
Jens1893 said:
Well, it kind of does depending on the details of what was presented as it doesn't sound like Apple put down any guaranteed money to me.
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Agreed. Also the PAC presidents were promised something similar by Larry Scott and we got the P12N. Fool me once...
 
Big Iron Buff said:
Just like I eluded to in my post above, PAC got burned the first time throwing a Hail Mary. Ironic that the only choice left to MAYBE save themselves now is doubling down and throwing another one.
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So is coach Lanning still calling us "losers?"

I'd be happy to lose all the way to the Big 12 TV contract.
 
This Is Fine GIF
 
Buffnik said:
Correct. One more year limited to a package which has PACN.

I'm thinking Hulu+ next year to get my local channels or maybe just the most basic cable with an internet bundle and then stacking on ESPN+ and other apps.
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Hulu+ could be the better choice next year over YouTubeTV as I don't care about the NFL Sunday Ticket. Plus my wife is nagging me about a handful of shows she wants to watch on there anyway.

This year, it's still FuboTV since I can one stop everything including the Pac12 Network.
 
the deal mostly lines us with what we thought and reinforces RG's comments.

i don't think tying up with apple as the market continues to spin toward full streaming is a bad thing.

it was pointed out by someone dozens of pages ago that the pac schools would likely struggle with the uncertainty of budgeting on a deal like this. i did think the top end value would far exceed the b12 but it sounds like that might not be true.

i figured there would be a resolution to the cable payments attached and a transfer of the p12 network.

the deal isn't "that" bad.

given we are not pacific time zone and get more guaranteed money from a traditional deal, i get why we did this.

the fluctuating budget is going to be super hard for cal, way, osu, asu. and maybe new members. uo uw stanford will just figure it out. utah sounds like they are all-in on the pac so they will suck it up too?

if Arizona comes with us, maybe cal as well? they have cash issues. and maybe a stray like asu?

uconn is only beautiful in the eyes of the b12 commish.
 
Buffnik said:
The new math, I believe, is who drives national, regional and time slot ratings and who has engaged fans who will buy app subscriptions. It's not about how many cable homes a school will add at in-market rates.
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Seems like there are 2 diverging business models. ESPN trying to lock down the hard core fans who will buy subscriptions, but may not be the most valuable group to advertisers. Fox and the legacy broadcasters are after big alumni bases and casual fans so they can maximize ad revenues because they don’t expect subscription revenues.
 
Big Iron Buff said:
Obviously exaggerating, but if you go by mhver3 (which he's seemed to be pretty close recently) then they would need 110 million subscriptions if they have 10 teams to equal the difference with the escalator. Looked up apple tv subscriptions, there are currently 25 million paid apple TV subscribers, 50 million if you include access via promotion. So they would only need to double to quadruple PAC 6/9 subscriptions to break even. Putting all your eggs in a wildly out of the box idea worked so well for PAC 12 media rights in the past... They're cooked. They'll be lucky to get a 1-2 million bucks a team in escalator money with this deal.

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I was just curious so I looked up MLS Season Pass subscribers and it's said to be around 1 Million (and they give free subscriptions to any season ticket holder). To get a quick idea on the popularity between the 2, the pac 12 championship game got about 3x viewership of the MLS championship. Attendance at Pac12 games was slightly over 2x MLS attendance in 2022. And you lose the biggest draw next year when USC leaves.

If you go by MHVer3's $1/subscriber/quarter math here is the additional revenue per team at different subscribers.

3 Million Subscribers (3x MLS) - $1M/team
6 Million (6x MLS) - $2M/team
15 Million (15x MLS) - $5M/team
25 Million (Number of ESPN+ subscribers and estimated number of paid apple tv+ subscribers) - $8.33M per team

BUT it's even worse because it seems like it is tiered bonuses not actual straight revenue, so in the fantasy land where just the PAC12 has equal subscribership to ESPN+, 25 million subscribers would be in the 20M tier and only pay $6.67M per team.

To get to 30M per team (20M base plus $10M subscriber bonus) you'd need over 40 million subscribers (over half of the Netflix subscribers in US and Canada)

I don't know how you get to a number that makes sense to stay especially when you aren't betting on streaming in general but a package of only PAC12 stuff. At least when you subscribe to ESPN+ you get a ton of programming.
 
I think this is accurate. UA's Robbins seems reluctant to be that guy who collapsed things.

 
Darth Snow said:
I just don't see the high end potential being there to make the insecurity worthwhile. If there was one conference that this model doesn't fit, it's the P9.
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I don't either, but if this for some reason blows up there is potential for this deal to be better. I am just not sure what number of subscribers we would realistically be looking at and what they would be willing to pay.
 
BuffsAlways said:
Seems like there are 2 diverging business models. ESPN trying to lock down the hard core fans who will buy subscriptions, but may not be the most valuable group to advertisers. Fox and the legacy broadcasters are after big alumni bases and casual fans so they can maximize ad revenues because they don’t expect subscription revenues.
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I think ESPN is trying to find the balance between its cable/satellite fee bundles with knowing its future is a direct subscriber model.
 
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