Does The Big 12 Expand In The Next Two Years ?

[dio]

Time will tell for sure, but I just feel like it was Graham that brought the stadium fantasy into reality and now Frank is just picking up where he left off. Almost feels like a "consolation" for CSU fans after losing their coach.

Could you imagine if CU had just had their first winning season since the Barnett years, were underway with the facility upgrades and Bruce Benson fired Rick George over "personal differences"? What would that tell CU fans about the regent's commitment to athletics?

You need to understand that mindset of the CSU fan. Nothing is ever bad. Seriously.... anything and everything that happens to them is positive. McElwain leaves? great, he wasn't anything special... the next coach will the be the real deal. Graham leaves? No big deal, Frank was the actual visionary. 1/2 the basketball team leaves? It doesn't matter, the new guys are better.

This mantra goes on forever

 

[ramfan]

That's completely unfair to say. I don't think I've seen all of that said anywhere. It sucks that McElwain is gone but nothing could have been done to fix the situation, dwelling on it is pointless, and planning for the worst isn't helpful. Hopefully CSU can hire someone to continue the progress that has been made. Will that happen? No one knows. Hell, McElwain himself might not have been able to keep this up. Everyone can see CSU is likely to take a step back next year due to the QB situation. CSU isn't better off now but all you can do is move on.

 

[skibum]

Lost track of which thread it was, but someone was pointing out that the 13th game a conference championship game provided was necessary and that improving ooc sos couldn't really make up for it.

I'm just not sure I buy that, especially when weighed against the risk of losing the CG (just ask Texas about that risk...).

Yeah, this year tOSU may have been able to pass by a couple of small private B12 schools with their absolute domination in the CG, but:

1. Lopsided outcomes like that are pretty unusual (yes I remember, don't bring it up - but that was how long ago? It was an exception damn it). Chances are that if wiscy & tOSU play that game 10 times, wiscy wins once or twice, and all but one of tOSU's wins are by a more reasonable margin.

2. The B12's gyrations on naming a champion really hurt them. I think they'll nut up and make the damn call if it happens again. And I hate to say it, but they should have called it for **** baylor and told tcu "scoreboard" if they wanted to complain.

3. Playing (and winning) an ooc that involves actual real opponents helps vault teams to the top earlier in the season, a position from which it is hard to dislodge them (especially if their stumble doesn't come at the end of the season). If **** baylor had played someone other than the little sisters of the blind in the ooc, they probably would have been ranked higher *the entire season* which would have benefited then at the end.

Any two of those changes, and I think chances are about 70/30 that **** baylor gets in, even without a cg. Change all three, and the odds increase to about 99%.

 

[goalline]

Here's an interesting take from a Big 12 blogger. His number one choice to include for Big 12 expansion isn't high on most lists, but he makes some good points.

http://big12fanatics.com/big-12-expansion-just-say-no-dumpster-diving-accs-rummage-pile/

Interesting premise, but severely flawed to claim Tulane has the pull of Northwestern or Vanderbilt. Basically, the logic is:
1. The big can't count is better than the ACC.
2. Therefore, we don't want any schools that didn't qualify for the ACC.
3. Pick a school that was so far down athletically that the ACC didn't even consider them so we can beat up on them.
4. Profit

It ignores SOS considerations along with any attempt at athletic history or prestige. It basically shows the writer completely missed the point about why Baylor or TCU didn't finish in the top 4. His only good point was that New Orleans is good for a party.

 

[dio]

That's completely unfair to say. I don't think I've seen all of that said anywhere. It sucks that McElwain is gone but nothing could have been done to fix the situation, dwelling on it is pointless, and planning for the worst isn't helpful. Hopefully CSU can hire someone to continue the progress that has been made. Will that happen? No one knows. Hell, McElwain himself might not have been able to keep this up. Everyone can see CSU is likely to take a step back next year due to the QB situation. CSU isn't better off now but all you can do is move on.

Of course it is unfair, but it the honest to god message that comes across from most CSU fans, at least on Ramnation. I follow CSU drama pretty closely since you're a big Colorado school and I have lots of family that attended there... and this sense of 'do no wrong' even when bad things happen is prevalent and annoying. I don't expect you to care that CU fans see CSU this way... I didn't care that Big12 schools thought CU fans were assholes.

 

[NWD Buff]

Kinda like when they announced caffeine was now ok after the church endowment bought a big stock position in Pepsico?

It's even funnier than that. They just clarified that the rule is that they cannot consume "hot" beverages, so only coffee and tea are out. I guess that there are some Mormons who still don;t touch caffeine because they disagree with the interpretation. Hot chocolate is fine though.

My wife grew up Mormon, so I have to go to her family gatherings, and they pound soft drinks like there is no tomorrow!

 

[Undefeated]

Of course it is unfair, but it the honest to god message that comes across from most CSU fans, at least on Ramnation. I follow CSU drama pretty closely since you're a big Colorado school and I have lots of family that attended there... and this sense of 'do no wrong' even when bad things happen is prevalent and annoying. I don't expect you to care that CU fans see CSU this way... I didn't care that Big12 schools thought CU fans were assholes.

I think that's the mindset of any fan that chooses to remain optimistic. Whether you think they're kidding themselves, is another issue, but I don't fault a fan base for trying to look at the bright side. For example, I was very optimistic with the Jon Embree hire. I thought he, EB, DH, etc. would "bring the swaggar back" to Boulder, recruit the inner cities and get the monetary backing of the alumni. I defended the hire at the time until it wasn't able to be defended anymore. I will do the same thing with HCMM right now (albeit, he actually has a track record, experience and has shown improvement). I supported Josh McDaniels when he traded away Cutler, Marshall, Scheffler, Hillis, etc. Not necessarily because I agreed with the moves, but because I am a fan of the Broncos first and players second and will defend the Broncos in almost any situation. It may not seem logical all the time, but that's the mindset of many fans all over the country. We have no control over the moves made by our beloved teams. We can only choose to be optimistic and look at the positives or we can choose to turn our backs on the team/program/franchise and refuse to watch or support them. I (and many others) choose the latter.

 

[TimmyDUBs]

There's optimism and then there's naivete. Experience usually brings one down and makes the other wiser.

 

[MtnBuff]

CSU has stepped up to the plate. Holding ground on Sparkles, approving the stadium construction (let's see if it gets built,) hiring Eustacy, etc. has shown that they want to play.

The problems though are multiple. First is the geography issue. A travel partner for WVU is important, moreso for the non-revenue sports. Also the fact that CSU doesn't move many eyeballs to TV sets. A lot of the other options have much bigger market areas in terms of population and stronger pull in those areas. It is also to be proven that a stadium will have a lasting significant impact on CSUs attendance. Even if they went to close to 30k average that would be below almost all P5 schools, and that is a highly optimistic target.

Another big question is how permanent is the commitment. The history of CSU has been one of athletic apathy and poor results. Most of their history is at or near the bottom of the standings in the major sports. Even with a big boost in conference revenues they are losing money, how long will the school support that? The fact that state moneys for higher education have dried up and aren't likely to come back won't help the long term view.

 

[CsquaredCC]

I don't think Big12 cares about academics that much.... especially with UT leading the band. They just want money.

My opinion

Tier 1: Cinncy, BYU, UCF
Tier 2: Memphis, CSU, Houston, Boise

Everything I have seen the last few days seems to be focusing on this group of schools. I think the big question right now is whether the Big 12 goes to 12 or 14 - if they decide to expand at all.

 

[Buffnik]

Everything I have seen the last few days seems to be focusing on this group of schools. I think the big question right now is whether the Big 12 goes to 12 or 14 - if they decide to expand at all.

Seems like they'd prefer to stay at 10 since expansion doesn't look like it increases revenue. But there's definitely talk about it after what happened with the playoff selection and the perception that not having that 13th game for a true champion did hurt the Big 12.

 

[dio]

Everything I have seen the last few days seems to be focusing on this group of schools. I think the big question right now is whether the Big 12 goes to 12 or 14 - if they decide to expand at all.

I think they will be very hesitant to expand to a third timezone... historically that has been a challenge for conferences.

It will be an interesting 5 - 10 years.... do all the conferences go to 14? If so, CSU finds a seat. Do the conferences go to 4, 16-team conferences? Then CSU is fubared. Do all the conferences land at 12 and stay that way? There is a chance there for CSU...

I'm just happy that despite CU's total awfulness in football, we found a seat at the table.

 

[dio]

Everything I have seen the last few days seems to be focusing on this group of schools. I think the big question right now is whether the Big 12 goes to 12 or 14 - if they decide to expand at all.

Also, I don't see 14 for the Big12 unless their hand is forced. Those schools don't want to do ANYTHING that divides their pie anymore than necessary.

 

[CsquaredCC]

Seems like they'd prefer to stay at 10 since expansion doesn't look like it increases revenue. But there's definitely talk about it after what happened with the playoff selection and the perception that not having that 13th game for a true champion did hurt the Big 12.

I have read a couple of articles claiming that BYU would potentially increase revenue for the conference. Not sure how accurate those are.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

It's even funnier than that. They just clarified that the rule is that they cannot consume "hot" beverages, so only coffee and tea are out. I guess that there are some Mormons who still don;t touch caffeine because they disagree with the interpretation. Hot chocolate is fine though.

My wife grew up Mormon, so I have to go to her family gatherings, and they pound soft drinks like there is no tomorrow!

Whenever I am in Salt Lake visiting an old buddy from CU I would order coffee just because I could. She would turn to me each time and give me a dirty look because she felt sorry for the poor LDS girl that would have to "make it" or "touch it". This always intrigued me since she was NOT LDS. :lol:

Oh, the only Starbucks (its been a few years) were in Barnes And Noble.

It nearly killed me to go there...

 

[NWD Buff]

Whenever I am in Salt Lake visiting an old buddy from CU I would order coffee just because I could. She would turn to me each time and give me a dirty look because she felt sorry for the poor LDS girl that would have to "make it" or "touch it". This always intrigued me since she was NOT LDS. :lol:

Oh, the only Starbucks (its been a few years) were in Barnes And Noble.

It nearly killed me to go there...

I was really respectful when we were first dating, but now, if I am invited to a brunch or anything that is early in the day, I show up with a large coffee in my hand.

There are a few family members who sneak alcohol. On Thanksgiving this year, one of the siblings hid some booze in the bathroom linen cabinet and passed the location on to all of the heathens in the group. Good times.

 

[Undefeated]

CSU has stepped up to the plate. Holding ground on Sparkles, approving the stadium construction (let's see if it gets built,) hiring Eustacy, etc. has shown that they want to play.

They hardly "held ground" on McElwain (Sparkles?? Not familiar with that term around here). The deal was supposed to be $7.5 mm within 30 days. Florida (and Mac) got away with $5mm in cash ($3 mm from Florida over 6 YEARS and $2mm from Mac, which will be picked up by boosters, over an undisclosed time period) and then they're paying CSU $2mm for a game IN Florida sometime before 2020. That is absolute robbery by Florida and anyone who commends CSU for "sticking to their guns" on the buyout, is just misinformed. The stadium made it through the BOG meeting and everything looks great... Until they actually have to come up with the money to actually build it (We'll see about that). Eustacy was a great hire but the man who hired him has been fired, and just like Mac, you think Eustacy will hang around Fort Collins when an ACC or Big East program comes calling?

Everything else I agree with :lol:

 

[hokiehead]

Lost track of which thread it was, but someone was pointing out that the 13th game a conference championship game provided was necessary and that improving ooc sos couldn't really make up for it.

I'm just not sure I buy that, especially when weighed against the risk of losing the CG (just ask Texas about that risk...).

Yeah, this year tOSU may have been able to pass by a couple of small private B12 schools with their absolute domination in the CG, but:

1. Lopsided outcomes like that are pretty unusual (yes I remember, don't bring it up - but that was how long ago? It was an exception damn it). Chances are that if wiscy & tOSU play that game 10 times, wiscy wins once or twice, and all but one of tOSU's wins are by a more reasonable margin.

2. The B12's gyrations on naming a champion really hurt them. I think they'll nut up and make the damn call if it happens again. And I hate to say it, but they should have called it for **** baylor and told tcu "scoreboard" if they wanted to complain.

3. Playing (and winning) an ooc that involves actual real opponents helps vault teams to the top earlier in the season, a position from which it is hard to dislodge them (especially if their stumble doesn't come at the end of the season). If **** baylor had played someone other than the little sisters of the blind in the ooc, they probably would have been ranked higher *the entire season* which would have benefited then at the end.

Any two of those changes, and I think chances are about 70/30 that **** baylor gets in, even without a cg. Change all three, and the odds increase to about 99%.

nice summary. Agree 100% the XII can improve SoS w/out a CCG.

Interesting premise, but severely flawed to claim Tulane has the pull of Northwestern or Vanderbilt. Basically, the logic is:
1. The big can't count is better than the ACC.
2. Therefore, we don't want any schools that didn't qualify for the ACC.
3. Pick a school that was so far down athletically that the ACC didn't even consider them so we can beat up on them.
4. Profit

It ignores SOS considerations along with any attempt at athletic history or prestige. It basically shows the writer completely missed the point about why Baylor or TCU didn't finish in the top 4. His only good point was that New Orleans is good for a party.

agree, the ACC hatred was a little over the top. adding Tulane hurts revenue, hurts SoS, improves academics.

I have read a couple of articles claiming that BYU would potentially increase revenue for the conference. Not sure how accurate those are.

that's the only addition I can conceive the XII making (without poaching a current P5 school) that could potentially increase revenue.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I was really respectful when we were first dating, but now, if I am invited to a brunch or anything that is early in the day, I show up with a large coffee in my hand.

There are a few family members who sneak alcohol. On Thanksgiving this year, one of the siblings hid some booze in the bathroom linen cabinet and passed the location on to all of the heathens in the group. Good times.

Jack Mormons are the best. :lol:

 

[MtnBuff]

They hardly "held ground" on McElwain (Sparkles?? Not familiar with that term around here). The deal was supposed to be $7.5 mm within 30 days. Florida (and Mac) got away with $5mm in cash ($3 mm from Florida over 6 YEARS and $2mm from Mac, which will be picked up by boosters, over an undisclosed time period) and then they're paying CSU $2mm for a game IN Florida sometime before 2020. That is absolute robbery by Florida and anyone who commends CSU for "sticking to their guns" on the buyout, is just misinformed. The stadium made it through the BOG meeting and everything looks great... Until they actually have to come up with the money to actually build it (We'll see about that). Eustacy was a great hire but the man who hired him has been fired, and just like Mac, you think Eustacy will hang around Fort Collins when an ACC or Big East program comes calling?

Everything else I agree with :lol:

It may not have been in the 30 days but they got $5 million plus a $2 million dollar body bag game so they will eventually get $7 million of the $7.5.

Had they held completely to the line they would have ended up in court and either paying a coach who didn't want to be there or more likely the court would have reduced the payout well below the money they are getting.

End result is that they are getting the biggest contract buyout in the history of NCAA football as far as I can determine.

The biggest question is how long can CSU continue to try to look like they will spend the money at the deficits they are running. And if they step up the revenues increase but so do the expenses so they will still be at big deficits.

 

[Tractor]

The Big12's situation is different from all other conferences. We keep talking about how the members would lose $$$ if they invited 2 more schools, but we say that assuming equal distribution, or even close to equal shares.

The Big12 is in a unique situation where they don't have to offer "full shares" to these incoming members. Nor should they. Why would they?

"Join the Big12, and we'll triple what you're currently making, we'll also increase it 3% each year for 10 years." These non-P5 schools might actually take that offer. Getting 3-5 mil a year instead of 1 wouldn't suck. Who cares that the other schools are getting 20+. You're at the big boy table.

I think the Big12 is more apt to expand than any other conference right now due to this....what's the phrase....financial flexibility (aka Texas and OK's ability to butt fu.k schools)

 

[Burrito]

Misleading thread title. Expected hilarious fat joke about Midwesterners.

 

[gobuffs58]

the big 12 does not need to over react.... if fl st loses just one game of many they could of and say ohio st loses or just squeaks by wisco they get at least bailor and or tcu both in!...as it is they get two top tier bowls

 

[skibum]

The Big12's situation is different from all other conferences. We keep talking about how the members would lose $$$ if they invited 2 more schools, but we say that assuming equal distribution, or even close to equal shares.

The Big12 is in a unique situation where they don't have to offer "full shares" to these incoming members. Nor should they. Why would they?

"Join the Big12, and we'll triple what you're currently making, we'll also increase it 3% each year for 10 years." These non-P5 schools might actually take that offer. Getting 3-5 mil a year instead of 1 wouldn't suck. Who cares that the other schools are getting 20+. You're at the big boy table.

I think the Big12 is more apt to expand than any other conference right now due to this....what's the phrase....financial flexibility (aka Texas and OK's ability to butt fu.k schools)

Very good point. Heck, even in our "everyone gets equal shares" conference Utah took a reduced share for the first few years just to get in, and the B12 doesn't even pretend to offer equal shares with their current members.

And yeah, I could see CSU jumping at that type of offer...

 

[pcbuff]

Local talk radio in Utah issellingvtheidea BYU should offer the big 12 an extended period of little or no pay out.

 

[skibum]

The Big12 is in a unique situation where they don't have to offer "full shares" to these incoming members. Nor should they. Why would they?

Never addressed the "why" question.

The reason you offer full and equal membership is that it helps to create long term stability. Texas has never understood this, and that is part of the reason their last two conference have imploded.

 

[Buffnik]

Never addressed the "why" question.

The reason you offer full and equal membership is that it helps to create long term stability. Texas has never understood this, and that is part of the reason their last two conference have imploded.

Over time, a new member should get a full share. They shouldn't get one from the beginning when they're coming from a conference with disbursements that are a small fraction of P5 conference disbursements. Over time, they become equal financial participants but founders in any organization don't dilute interest unless the new shareholders increase the size of the pie that's being cut so that there is a financial gain to be had from accepting a smaller slice.

 

[BuffUp]

If so, would they take us back? I could deal with the UT drama for being able to at least be competitive in a couple of conference games.

 

[Dark Bohner]

If so, would they take us back? I could deal with the UT drama for being able to at least be competitive in a couple of conference games.

:wtf::ban:

 

[BuffUp]

JK - mind was just wondering