How do the Buffs become a bowl team in 2012?

[Duff Man]

I am not talking about things you would like to see happen, but rather things that need to happen if the Buffs are to get to six wins this year.

1. Start the season 3-0. This is the easiest opening I have seen in a long time at CU. Fresno State on the road is not a gimme, but it is the type of game we need to start winning to take steps forward as a program. Basically, it is easier to find three conference wins than four.

2. Connor Wood needs to finish higher in the PAC-12 in passing than Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen ever did, probably significantly higher. Here are the finishes in conference passing efficiency over the last several years:

2011	12
2010	7
2009	12
2008	12
2007	10
2006	12

The last time our QB finished in the top half of the conference? That would be 2005, when Joel Klatt finished 4th. We have played in two passing-dominated leagues in the last several years and failed to break through the bottom third. Wood is going to have to be better than that if we want to not only win six games, but also to be more competitive overall in league games.

3. Directly related to Wood's success as a QB, Paul Richardson needs to push for all-conference honors. The PAC-12 is loaded at WR. Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Marquess Wilson, and Marqise Lee are four of the top WRs in the entire country. If the Buffs are to have any sort of success this season, Richardson needs to be pushing those guys. We have all seen the potential, now is the time for Richardson to stay healthy and fulfill it. With limited receiving options beyond him, at the moment, there might be no other choice.

4. The special teams need to take a major step forward. It is no secret that the special teams have been beyond bad for a while now. How bad? Take a look at our finish in the conference in the major categories:

Year	FG %	Net Punting	Kickoff Returns	Punt Returns	Kickoff Coverage
2011	12	8	10	10	11
2010	8	11	3	6	4
2009	10	12	4	12	5
2008	12	9	7	8	11
2007	6	7	6	4	6
2006	10	2	9	10	5

As you can see, we were pretty bad across the board in 2011. Three areas that have really given us issues over the last several years: kicking, punting, and punt returns. With a team that will not be dominant on either offense or defense, the special teams need to pick up the slack. BTW, if you will notice from the table, the best overall season of special teams happens to be the year we last made a bowl game.

5. Stay healthy. You could argue this should be at the top of the list, but I will go ahead and finish with it instead. In 2011, injuries in the secondary, along with serious injuries to Doug Rippy and Jack Harris really put the team in a bad spot. You cannot avoid injuries in football, but the Buffs need to stay relatively healthy at most positions because the depth simply is not there.

Thoughts?

(You will notice I do not really think defense is the key to success this season)

 

[sackman]

Interesting to see that our FG percentage was worst in the league last year. I thought that was one area where we really had some improvement.

The easy answer to the question is: win six or more games. The tough part is trying to figure out where those wins will come from. Yes, we *should* start out 3-0. So then we have to go 3-6 over the remaining nine games. As much as it hurts, there ain't no way in Hell we'll beat USC, Stanford or Oregon. Home or road, those teams are light years ahead of us still. That leaves roadies at WSU and UA and home games with ASU, UCLA, Utah, and Washington as potential wins. Need to go 3-3 in those games. Frankly, I'm struggling with the idea that we'll go 3-3 in those games. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[CUFan]

Given our overall lack of talent, experience and depth, it seems like our best hope for a bowl game is with surprising QB success. Given none of our QBs have seen much or any PT, Wood (or whoever starts) needs to have a phenomenal first year.

With so much youth playing, we are going to lose some games we should win. It seems to me that if we get six wins next year it will be a minor miracle.

 

[Duff Man]

One weird thing about the FG percentage is that with one more FG made, we would have ended up tied for 7th in the conference. Overall, the FG kicking in the PAC-12 apparently sucked.

Special teams have to be better than that though. We play at altitude for more than half our conference games this season (we did last season as well), so there should finish in the top half of the conference in net punting.

 

[sackman]

One weird thing about the FG percentage is that with one more FG made, we would have ended up tied for 7th in the conference. Overall, the FG kicking sucked apparently.

Stanford agrees with you.

 

[NashBuff]

We should start 3-0 with wins over CSU, Sacremento State, and Frenso State. CSU and Frenso State have new coaches this year.

I agree with not being able to beat USC, Oregon, and Stanford this year so that leaves the six games against WSU, UA, ASU, Utah, UCLA, and UW as games that we must go at least 3-3 in order to go to a bowl game.

It's difficult to say with WSU because we don't know how well the QBs and WRs are clicking in Leach's offense. Same for UA, ASU, and UCLA. Rich Rod's teams that he coached for didn't have good first seasons at the helm so we might have a good chance in Tucson this year. Graham has done a good job getting his teams going in year one but I'm glad the game is in Boulder. UCLA was more of a running team last season and they are going to a more pass friendly offense this coming season. And for Utah, we should beat them since most of their kids that we beat last season are coming back.

I don't see us beating UW...not with that athletic QB returning and the Huskies will find someone to replace Polk.

CU should be able to compete for a bowl game this year. Another three win season will lead to dobuts about Embree's future at CU.

 

[Unleash Hell]

We start 2-1 and win 1 in conference play to finish with 3 wins

 

[Duff Man]

We start 2-1 and win 1 in conference play to finish with 3 wins

If we finish with 3 wins, Embree should be on the hot seat.

 

[Jaximus]

This year has got to be the toughest to predict. Still a new staff. New players at the biggest impact positions.

Who knows?! We could win 1 or 8.

The safest bet is a 5 or 6 win season. Obviously that depends on the ability of Wood, our OL and the incoming freshman on Defense.

We're likely still a couple years away from possibly seeing a rise to relevance. But I'll take a bowl game or two in the mean time!

 

[Unleash Hell]

If we finish with 3 wins, Embree should be on the hot seat.

Didn't say he shouldn't

 

[Duff Man]

Didn't say he shouldn't

I know, was not trying to imply anything.

Three wins would be pretty damn disappointing.

 

[BuffNut99]

I think we go 6-6 in a rollercoaster of a season - I think we lose one of our first three in crushing fashion (thinking Fresno), but pull off a few huge upsets later in the year after our kids get their sealegs. I'm think we go 4-2 out of (WSU, UA, ASU, Utah, UCLA, and UW), and I am guaranteeing wins over UCLA and Washington. I think Jim Mora is full of sh1t and can't gameday coach worth sh1t either, and we'll be seeing lots of this:

 

[Unleash Hell]

I'm pretty worried about CSU. On paper I shouldn't be, they are breaking in a new coach and a new QB. They don't have a good track record against us when breaking in a new QB, but something bothers me about them this year. I am actually worried more about them than Fresno

 

[Dark Bohner]

Next year, I need to see improvement. Colorado has a very favorable schedule against a lot of new coaching staffs. I understand that rebuilding takes a while, but it is time to see relatively consistent offensive and defensive performances.

 

[Jaximus]

One word: connorwoodneedstoplaylikeagodtogetustoabowlgame

 

[Dark Bohner]

I'm pretty worried about CSU. On paper I shouldn't be, they are breaking in a new coach and a new QB. They don't have a good track record against us when breaking in a new QB, but something bothers me about them this year. I am actually worried more about them than Fresno

I'm not. They will be playing the very first game under the new coaching staff against a team with superior talent. Embree will be in a huge load of trouble if he loses this game, and I don't think he will.

 

[sackman]

CU is not going to lose to CSU. Of the first three games, the Fresno game is the toughest to automatically count as a win. If CU has really gotten the road monkey off it's back, that should be an easy game, too.

 

[SBG]

We got beat badly against ASU and UW.

We need to be competitive in every game. We should win some nailbiters and lose some nailbiters, but be competitive in every game, except UO, USC and Stanford (which we might be able to do; expect a loss, but we should at least be in the game). No more blowouts. We need to go 3-0 to have a shot to make a bowl game.

 

[NashBuff]

I'm pretty worried about CSU. On paper I shouldn't be, they are breaking in a new coach and a new QB. They don't have a good track record against us when breaking in a new QB, but something bothers me about them this year. I am actually worried more about them than Fresno

I don't think anyone should worry about CSU that much. We beat CSU easily in Dan Hawkins' last game against that school and got Embree's first win against them. We have won seven out of the last 11 games at Sports Authority Field against them. The 24-3 win in 2010 was very telling of the talent gap between CU & CSU and will only widen under Embree. The days of competitive CSU-CU games could be coming to a close as well. This year's game could be the last competitve one before CU hammers them all the way to 2020.

 

[Unleash Hell]

We got beat badly against ASU and UW.

We need to be competitive in every game. We should win some nailbiters and lose some nailbiters, but be competitive in every game, except UO, USC and Stanford (which we might be able to do; expect a loss, but we should at least be in the game). No more blowouts. We need to go 3-0 to have a shot to make a bowl game.

I don't think Stanford is going to be very good this year. I don't think we'll beat them, but they shouldn't be in the same grouping as SC and Oregon IMO.

 

[sackman]

The days of competitive CSU-CU games could be coming to a close as well. This year's game could be the last competitve one before CU hammers them all the way to 2020.

I've heard this exact same thing the last 4 years. The days of competitive CU/CSU games are not coming to an end, they ended.

 

[Buffnik]

We have to play well on the road this year. Some of our best opportunities for conference wins are on the road (Wazzu, Zona) and we absolutely must win at Fresno State.

We also need to find a way to reverse some of our road beatdowns when we play Stanford, Washington, ASU and UCLA at home this year. Can we split those?

In order for this to happen, efficiency is the key.

Our run defense has to be good enough to put teams in more 3rd and longs so that we can get off the field more often. With lack of depth on the DL, sustained drives will kill us.

Our offense has to run the ball at over 4 yards a carry (actually closer to 5). That will be a huge factor in also improving our pass efficiency. It's much easier to pass on 2nd and 4 than on 2nd and 9.

Special teams must win the field position battle for us. We've had games where punting, returns and FG misses reversed field position on us in a bad way and cost us any chance at wins over the past several years. When our average starting field position is inside our 25 and the other team is around their 40, we're usually going to lose.

Turnovers. Turnovers. Turnovers. I saved the most important for last. The team that wins the turnover battle usually wins the football game. And we're simply not good enough or explosive enough to give the other team more opportunities than us in our games.

 

[BlackNGold]

I agree with most of Boulder's points but I do think defense is going to be a key to improvement...we lost the Cal and WSU games last year because of big lapses on defense....

The passing game does need to improve...I think the key to Richardson being an impact is if other receiving threats emerge. The don't have to be the caliber of Richardson but be there if Prich is double covered.

 

[Highflyer]

Health and youth stepping up. I know it's general but some of our youth has to rise for any success and if we have the injuries we had last year we are in deep trouble. The depth at LB and DL is just scary.

 

[SJBuff]

These are the teams we play with new head coaches in 2012 - I like are chances in every one of these contests
CSU
FSU
WSU
fUCLA
ASU
UA

5 of the first 6 teams we play will have first year HC's!!!! And the 7the team is a div II team!!!! We bettter win 5 in this stretch or I'm going to be baby punching mad!

Remember, we were 3-8 in 2000 and went 10-3 in 2001 (most of that with a Juco signal caller). We got enough talent, they just need to play together and believe. How we do in Fresno will reveal where this team is really at.

 

[Darth Snow]

BB, I really like your take... but I do want to hear your reasoning as to why the D isn't important. The way I see it, only two units will not have a true frosh starting... OL (not counting TE); and LB.... That leads to huge questions EVERYWHERE, so why did you ignore the D?

 

[dply]

These are the teams we play with new head coaches in 2012 - I like are chances in every one of these contests
CSU
FSU
WSU
fUCLA
ASU
UA

5 of the first 6 teams we play will have first year HC's!!!! And the 7the team is a div II team!!!! We bettter win 5 in this stretch or I'm going to be baby punching mad!

Remember, we were 3-8 in 2000 and went 10-3 in 2001 (most of that with a Juco signal caller). We got enough talent, they just need to play together and believe. How we do in Fresno will reveal where this team is really at.

Must......not....drink.....what.....Tom...Selleck..... is......serving up.

Too late. :woot: We're gonna win!

 

[Unleash Hell]

Health and youth stepping up. I know it's general but some of our youth has to rise for any success and if we have the injuries we had last year we are in deep trouble. The depth at LB and DL is just scary.

I would say O-line depth is in worse shape than D-line depth

 

[slider]

Win all the games we're supposed to (CSU, DIAA, Fresno). And then out coach more talented teams to win 3 more games

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

We have a very good shot at winning our first 6.

CSU new coach/they suck
SacSt D-2 enough said
Fresno New Coach and not nearly as frightening as they were years ago
WSU New Coach/ in a completely new offensive system
UCLA New Coach/ in a completely new offensive system
ASU New Coach/new offense/ lost a lot of talent this offseason
USC We wont be them. Not sure if anyone beats them
Oregon Wont beat them in autzen. Still too much talent
Furd This one might happen, however it is unlikely
UA Should beat them. New Coach
UW This game could be close depending. At this point we should be really solid as a team and firing on all cylinders
UU Should beat the team to the west.

I see us falling between 5-8 wins
Bowl Eligibility is obviously the goal and I think we can get it. What I dont want to see is the team win the first six, then lose the next six, and limp into a bowl game.