How do the Buffs become a bowl team in 2012?

[BuffsNYC]

:blah: :blah: :blah:

It's not so complicated. 1) Run the ball. 2) At least slow down the PAC's passing offenses (meaning no more Goodson, et al. as CB). 3) Play consistently (even if only average) on special teams. Go to a bowl.

If CU can do the above, they will be in every game this season except for maybe USC and Oregon, and they will win at least six.

 

[Buffnik]

I can see an upgrade QB and even at TE (although it might not be significant).

But count me skeptical on the upgrade at RB. Stewart had faults, but at end of the day, you cannot argue his production. Not only was he pretty good on the ground (a step back from his junior season though), he was also our second leading receiver.

We lose a major playmaker with Speedy and we won't be as explosive from the position with Tony Jones. (Too early to know about the freshman). My hope, though, is that we go from a Barry Sanders type attack to more of a Curtis Martin type attack. No negative plays and more predictable production. That could add some consistency that would make us a better offense despite being less explosive.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

We lose a major playmaker with Speedy and we won't be as explosive from the position with Tony Jones. (Too early to know about the freshman). My hope, though, is that we go from a Barry Sanders type attack to more of a Curtis Martin type attack. No negative plays and more predictable production. That could add some consistency that would make us a better offense despite being less explosive.

I saw some things out of TOJO last season to lead me to believe that he may be a quality replacement for Speedy. Add that to the addition of Powell and I think we could have a very solid running game next season. Plus I am not confident that we wont see a true freshman gain significant playing time there. Payne and Pow could be a killer combination.

 

[Quattro]

I saw some things out of TOJO last season to lead me to believe that he may be a quality replacement for Speedy. Add that to the addition of Powell and I think we could have a very solid running game next season. Plus I am not confident that we wont see a true freshman gain significant playing time there. Payne and Pow could be a killer combination.

I'm also curious to see how Crowder recovers from his knee injury. I think Crowder and Abron are going to be very productive but I can't remember who said it, but one of the coaches said Payne looks game ready.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

at 5'11 215lbs he sounds game ready. And the 4.6 40 to me seems like it will be improved on once he starts training with our staff. He is going to be fun to watch. Crowder and Abron add some different dimensions and I will be interested in how they progress the next couple years

Especially Abron. He has some wheels

 

[BlackNGold]

Mental toughness is what was missing for a lot of last season (and the 5 seasons before that). Teams can will themselves to win close games if they have the "mental toughness" to do so at crunch time. I believe starting in the USC game some of that attitude starting to emerge (certainly disappeared in the UCLA game). Embree and his staff cannot do much about the talent level but they can do something about what they get out of that talent. I expect 6 wins - I will be disappointed with less. I will be very upset with only three wins. Key games are Fresno, AU, and WSU on the road, UCLA, Utah, and ASU at home. Everyone of those games are winnable although CU may not be favored to win. I am looking to go 4-2 in those games and add in CSU and the Div II school and CU should have six wins.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

Mental toughness is what was missing for a lot of last season (and the 5 seasons before that). Teams can will themselves to win close games if they have the "mental toughness" to do so at crunch time. I believe starting in the USC game some of that attitude starting to emerge (certainly disappeared in the UCLA game). Embree and his staff cannot do much about the talent level but they can do something about what they get out of that talent. I expect 6 wins - I will be disappointed with less. I will be very upset with only three wins. Key games are Fresno, AU, and WSU on the road, UCLA, Utah, and ASU at home. Everyone of those games are winnable although CU may not be favored to win. I am looking to go 4-2 in those games and add in CSU and the Div II school and CU should have six wins.

That attitude that showed up in the USC game is what has me so excited for what embo is doing. The team started getting fed up with losing. They never quit in that USC game. Idk what happened against UCLA but there was still a swagger and attitude in them that can to a boil in the Zona game. I was hoping we would have put our foot on their throats and just keep going at full throttle. Get some of that frustration out. But it also showed up at the end of the Utah game when the Utes started coming back. I know we got lucky on those missed FG's but still they buckled down when needed and forced those kind of situations.

 

[BuffWarHog]

I agree with most of Boulder's points but I do think defense is going to be a key to improvement...we lost the Cal and WSU games last year because of big lapses on defense....

The passing game does need to improve...I think the key to Richardson being an impact is if other receiving threats emerge. The don't have to be the caliber of Richardson but be there if Prich is double covered.

If I had to OVERsimplify those losses, I would say it was because we couldn't get 3 yards on the ground. We had 2 chances against Cal inside the 10 but turned it over on downs with less than 5 yards to go and again at the end of the WAZZU game we gave it back with about a minute left because we had to throw, couldn't keep the clock running, and couldn't get 5 f-ing yards. One word - FULLBACK!!

 

[Daaah]

If I had to OVERsimplify those losses, I would say it was because we couldn't get 3 yards on the ground. We had 2 chances against Cal inside the 10 but turned it over on downs with less than 5 yards to go and again at the end of the WAZZU game we gave it back with about a minute left because we had to throw, couldn't keep the clock running, and couldn't get 5 f-ing yards. One word - FULLBACK!!

two words. Offensive line.

 

[buffaholic]

Comparing scores of common opponents does not end an argument.

No it doesn't. But there's nobody that is going to make an argument that says CU was better last year than Fresno State. There's no evidence of that and the one common opponent doesn't fall in our favor either.

We were comparable. They return a lot and we play them on the road. 3-0 will be tougher than most are giving credit for, much like most didn't see CU losing to Hawaii on the road last year. It's a good schedule and it really lines up for us to steal some games.

Here's what I'm really saying:

Down play CU's team going into the year (to the media). Way too many question marks. Set the stage for another struggling year (externally). Internally, set goal at 6 wins. I think it's possible because of the schedule. I also think we will be more green this year than last and not better on paper. We will be more accustomed to the coaches system (as the brilliant one pointed out). But on paper, we have more talent than 2 teams, and it's closer than most think. Throw in a green QB and it's really 2013 before I think we start to see significant on-field progress.

If we struggle with a new QB and a bunch of freshmen playing, we still need to recruit and I've seen teams do this when playing poorly in year 2 but playing the farm kids. Year 3, you got to win or recruits won't listen at all. If Embo can pull 6 wins, he's coach of the year. Expectations shouldn't be that high yet. D1 teams don't go into a season with the lack of players at some of the positions we have. We literally are depending on true freshmen to win jobs at at least 6-8 of the top 30 positional slots that will see major time. That's way too many.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

I'm guessing that if Vegas set the line on the CU Fresno St game today, we'd be getting a few points.

 

[SBG]

We've won one road game in the last 5 years. This is on the road. I'm not saying we can't win, but this is a crucial game to show that Embree can beat the Tol....****, non-BCS competition consistently on the road since we'll be doing 2 for 1s hopefully in the future (is this a 1 and 1?).

 

[Dark Bohner]

That attitude that showed up in the USC game is what has me so excited for what embo is doing. The team started getting fed up with losing. They never quit in that USC game. Idk what happened against UCLA but there was still a swagger and attitude in them that can to a boil in the Zona game. I was hoping we would have put our foot on their throats and just keep going at full throttle. Get some of that frustration out. But it also showed up at the end of the Utah game when the Utes started coming back. I know we got lucky on those missed FG's but still they buckled down when needed and forced those kind of situations.

I think the mental toughness really showed at Utah. Not only was it visible in the second half on the field, but on the sidelines. The players were very vocal and confident on the sideline. I think this will only continue to grow as the players take on the Embree/EB attitude.

 

[Buffnik]

I think the mental toughness really showed at Utah. Not only was it visible in the second half on the field, but on the sidelines. The players were very vocal and confident on the sideline. I think this will only continue to grow as the players take on the Embree/EB attitude.

The first time I saw it was how they closed the game against Arizona.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

The first time I saw it was how they closed the game against Arizona.

They came out and immediately punched the wildcats in the mouth. It was very good to see

 

[somebody]

No it doesn't. But there's nobody that is going to make an argument that says CU was better last year than Fresno State. There's no evidence of that and the one common opponent doesn't fall in our favor either.

We were comparable. They return a lot and we play them on the road. 3-0 will be tougher than most are giving credit for, much like most didn't see CU losing to Hawaii on the road last year. It's a good schedule and it really lines up for us to steal some games.

Here's what I'm really saying:

Down play CU's team going into the year (to the media). Way too many question marks. Set the stage for another struggling year (externally). Internally, set goal at 6 wins. I think it's possible because of the schedule. I also think we will be more green this year than last and not better on paper. We will be more accustomed to the coaches system (as the brilliant one pointed out). But on paper, we have more talent than 2 teams, and it's closer than most think. Throw in a green QB and it's really 2013 before I think we start to see significant on-field progress.

If we struggle with a new QB and a bunch of freshmen playing, we still need to recruit and I've seen teams do this when playing poorly in year 2 but playing the farm kids. Year 3, you got to win or recruits won't listen at all. If Embo can pull 6 wins, he's coach of the year. Expectations shouldn't be that high yet. D1 teams don't go into a season with the lack of players at some of the positions we have. We literally are depending on true freshmen to win jobs at at least 6-8 of the top 30 positional slots that will see major time. That's way too many.

I'm guessing Embree's goal for the team is higher than 6 wins. He has to be careful not to set expectations too high so there isn't a huge letdown by not achieving it, but he sets the bar high to see what they can achieve, rather than basing it completely on some logical argument.

 

[BuffNut99]

He has to be careful not to set expectations too high so there isn't a huge letdown by not achieving it, but he sets the bar high to see what they can achieve.

You don't mean "10 wins, no excuses," do you?!?!

 

[buffaholic]

You guys are delusional. The staff is hoping for improvement but not "more than 6 wins". The Buffs will be picked to finish last. They lost a lot of contributors from a 3 win team. There was not much depth ready to step in for quite a few of those vacancies. Do you really think that we should expect one of these young WR's to be better than Toney Clemons? Is Clay Norgard going to be better than Harrington was, even though he's a true freshman who played DL in high school? Is Connor Wood going to be as ready as Tyler Hansen was after starting about 10-12 games over two years?

They will have to rely on true freshmen for big minutes at about 8 spots - if they are lucky enough to be able to count on those guys.

What if Connor Wood is really the QB who was beaten out by David Ash (a true freshman) at Texas for the 3rd spot and not the victim of Mack Brown's politics? What if he's just ok for a sophomore, after factoring in that he will take his first college snap against CSU?

The best thing that could possibly happen here is that the forecasters pick CU to finish last and win 3 games. We then win 6 games and we get the type of momentum going that Hawkins had the year he picked up a bowl appearance, for the recruiting trails. That's a big "if" that relies on all kinds of contributions from guys with a resume that is highlited with High School games. If some of those "if's" don't work out, CU will struggle to win more than 4 games. That should be the expectation. Expecting more is setting everyone up for disappointment. I'd rather Embree under-promise and over-deliver. The tone of the staff lately is sobering. Recent interviews with Brookhart, Kanavis, Brown and Tui are stoic. Hope that keep it that way and then over-deliver with results....

 

[Buffnik]

You guys are delusional. The staff is hoping for improvement but not "more than 6 wins". The Buffs will be picked to finish last. They lost a lot of contributors from a 3 win team. There was not much depth ready to step in for quite a few of those vacancies. Do you really think that we should expect one of these young WR's to be better than Toney Clemons? Is Clay Norgard going to be better than Harrington was, even though he's a true freshman who played DL in high school? Is Connor Wood going to be as ready as Tyler Hansen was after starting about 10-12 games over two years?

They will have to rely on true freshmen for big minutes at about 8 spots - if they are lucky enough to be able to count on those guys.

What if Connor Wood is really the QB who was beaten out by David Ash (a true freshman) at Texas for the 3rd spot and not the victim of Mack Brown's politics? What if he's just ok for a sophomore, after factoring in that he will take his first college snap against CSU?

The best thing that could possibly happen here is that the forecasters pick CU to finish last and win 3 games. We then win 6 games and we get the type of momentum going that Hawkins had the year he picked up a bowl appearance, for the recruiting trails. That's a big "if" that relies on all kinds of contributions from guys with a resume that is highlited with High School games. If some of those "if's" don't work out, CU will struggle to win more than 4 games. That should be the expectation. Expecting more is setting everyone up for disappointment. I'd rather Embree under-promise and over-deliver. The tone of the staff lately is sobering. Recent interviews with Brookhart, Kanavis, Brown and Tui are stoic. Hope that keep it that way and then over-deliver with results....

In other words, CU is the only real threat to USC in the South this year.

 

[dply]

In other words, CU is the only real threat to USC in the South this year.

I checked the box for PAC-12 championship tickets!

 

[Duff Man]

I am reading this thread and the last word that would come to mind is "delusional," but maybe that's just me. I doubt anyone is going to be truly shocked if we do not get to six wins.

But let's not go too far the other way either way either. Three wins in any season, no matter the circumstances, should always be disappointing. We know Embree will be here in 2013, but that does not mean his assistants should not be coaching for their jobs. Let's have some standards.

 

[somebody]

You don't mean "10 wins, no excuses," do you?!?!

You're fired! Embree would make his high expectations known to his players, not outlandish ones to the media.

 

[Darth Snow]

You're fired! Embree would make his high expectations known to his players, not outlandish ones to the media.

"Bowl Game"?

 

[somebody]

"Bowl Game"?

Yes, but as has been stated, while that's a challenge, it's a pretty doable one. I'd bet he'd aim just a little higher than that, for a real upset or two. You can't motivate to greatness with low expectations, and that's what he's all about.

 

[Buffnik]

Yes, but as has been stated, while that's a challenge, it's a pretty doable one. I'd bet he'd aim just a little higher than that, for a real upset or two. You can't motivate to greatness with low expectations, and that's what he's all about.

And you never put a number on it.

I heard Alfred Williams talking about that on the radio after the Hawkins thing. He related it to David Shula being a doorknob when he was the HC with the Bengals. Shula was addressing the team and laying out the goals for the season. He did something like go through the first 8 and say "if we can be 4-4 at this point, we're right where we need to be". Alfred and Shula had a falling out at that point because Alfred replied to the whole room with, "Which ones do you want us to lose, Coach?".

The point is that Embree's expectation is 12-0 right now. He and his staff will go into every single game with a plan for how they are going to win and an expectation that if everyone does his job that we will win. This will be true every game and every season. So we will never hear a number goal on a season. Instead, we'll hear things like "bowl game" or "end/continue a particular streak" or "win the South" or "win the Pac-12".

 

[buffaholic]

Well, for the record, we've won less games than I expected for 7 straight seasons... Last year I saw 6 and we won 3. I see 4 and hope for 7. I sure hope I'm being too pessimistic!

When I re-look at Boulder Buffs stats from last year, all I can hope for is improvement, given we are replacing a lot of key contributors with complete unknowns.

They picked Tad's team to finish 10-11th. We will be picked for 11-12th in FB and I doubt we would be the pre-season favorite in any conference game. Sure every game is winnable except perhaps 3 (maybe 4).

If Embree wins 6, he should be the PAC12 COY.

 

[Dark Bohner]

Well, for the record, we've won less games than I expected for 7 straight seasons... Last year I saw 6 and we won 3. I see 4 and hope for 7. I sure hope I'm being too pessimistic!

When I re-look at Boulder Buffs stats from last year, all I can hope for is improvement, given we are replacing a lot of key contributors with complete unknowns.

They picked Tad's team to finish 10-11th. We will be picked for 11-12th in FB and I doubt we would be the pre-season favorite in any conference game. Sure every game is winnable except perhaps 3 (maybe 4).

If Embree wins 6, he should be the PAC12 COY.

We have to bust through eventually. Law of averages says we have to surprise one of these days. I remember big things expected for 2008, and 2009 and disappointing. Maybe not this year.

 

[buffs04]

The reality of the task facing Embree and co. is that turning around a program generally requires 'doing more with less', i.e., recruiting above your record or winning above your talent-level or both. It's not going to be easy, but they probably need to win more games this year than the quality of players on the team suggest they should in order to get the ball rolling. Back-to-back seasons with low win totals isn't a great start, regardless of circumstance.

 

[MtnBuff]

There are a number of things to consider in terms of if the Buffs reach a bowl this year.

On the negative side are the obvious issues, a new QB, a questionable OL, only one proven reciever, losing Speedy, on offense. Nothing in experienced depth on the DL, LBs coming off injuries, and a defensive backfield that last year was one of the worst in the country.

The former HC who's name I won't mention knows about programs that are Burned to the Ground, he did that here. He left Embree with a team that lacked AQ quality talent, lacked depth, and had a deeply ingrained losing attitude.

You don't change all that in 1 1/2 years no matter how good a job you do. I think Embree is doing a great job but this team can still be a bad team this year.

A number of reasons for optimism.

First is the schedule, last year CU played what many considered one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Buffs started the season with a long road trip to a tough place to play, they gave up their bye week to go play a money game at Ohio State, they played a talented Cal team as an OOC game before hitting the conference schedule. This year they have what should be a much easier OOC that will allow them to build some confidence, and they have a bye week to collect their thoughts in the season. With the Thursday game they actually get two long weeks which may help them a huge amount.

They also have an infusion of young talent. No doubt they are still behind the curve on talent but the margin is closing. They will actually have more guys who have the speed and size to play at this level than last year. They also have more playmakers at various positions instead of the old regiems lunchbox guys.

The DBs will be brutally young but we at least won't be overmatched athletically like last year. It was brutal to watch Perkins playing off his injuries running slower than other teams LBs, watching Sanderson who put out great effort but as a CB was FCS caliber getting blown by, watching backup RBs and WRs playing DB.

We should win the first 3, Fresno on the road is a concern but after winning at Utah the monkey is off the back, now we can stab that monkey again. Wazzou is a winnable game, UCLA changed coaches for a reason. ASU is beatable in Boulder. SC and Oregon on the road are no hopers and Stanford even at home still has a huge talent advantage and is used to winning. Arizona on the road, especially coming off the toughest part of the schedule sets up to be a very tough game but then the final two at home are winnable including Utah which should be better than winnable.

The Buffs still can't compete with the best teams in the conference. The are though much more comparable to the mid-bottom teams in the conference.

Embree looks to have done a lot to shed the losing attitude that was here. This years schedule will help. 6 wins should not be unexpected this year.

 

[Quattro]

The reality of the task facing Embree and co. is that turning around a program generally requires 'doing more with less', i.e., recruiting above your record or winning above your talent-level or both. It's not going to be easy, but they probably need to win more games this year than the quality of players on the team suggest they should in order to get the ball rolling. Back-to-back seasons with low win totals isn't a great start, regardless of circumstance.

Back to back? Dude we haven't had a good season since 2004 really.