And everyone else is looking at CU as a 3-10 team that is replacing 7 starters on offense, 4 on defense, and has a tiny senior class to step in and provide veteran leadership.
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How do the Buffs become a bowl team in 2012?
- Thread starter Duff Man
- Start date
And everyone else is looking at CU as a 3-10 team that is replacing 7 starters on offense, 4 on defense, and has a tiny senior class to step in and provide veteran leadership.
Deleted member 807
Guest
Connor Woods delivering the goods. Can he complete >60% of his passes? Can he throw 3 or more TDs for every pick?
Bakhtiari needs help. If Handler and Dannewitz are anywhere close to the all conference discussion, it would be a minor miracle. Let's see if Harris or Nembot can scare anyone. The Oline has to limit sacks <20 on the season. If sacks and Presnap penalties negate Tony Jones's rushing yards, were doomed.
The TE plays an important role for pass protection and for those seam routes. Sure hope Nick Kasa or Kyle Slavin or somebody has good hands.
If CU's D allows > four 300 yard passing games, it will be another disappointing season. Greg Brown's squad can not afford to be out of place, miss assignments, and get burned each and every quarter. How about gashers are limited to 2 or fewer per game? Defense must keep opposing offences off the field and give the O a chance to grind teams down.
The kicking game continues to improve, with O'Neill and Oliver becoming more consistent and precise over last season. No sophomore slump. Can CU have somebody step up and be a threat returning kickoffs and punts? It's been a long, long time since CU has had a legitimate threat at the return position.
I'm not too concerned at WR and RB. The talent and coaching is good enough at the skilled positions. Somebody will complement PRich. The running game is dependent on the Oline. If the holes are there, someone will hit them.
The D-Line scares me to death.
Fingers crossed for 3-0 OCC and maybe we'll pick up 3 wins against Utah, Arizona, UCLA and WSU. The Buffs will be underdogs in most conference games. I'm not holding my breath until after we actually see the 2012 Buffs take the field and show us what they got.
Much of the team is vaporware at this point. OK in concept. Completely unproven and no where near battle tested.
Bakhtiari needs help. If Handler and Dannewitz are anywhere close to the all conference discussion, it would be a minor miracle. Let's see if Harris or Nembot can scare anyone. The Oline has to limit sacks <20 on the season. If sacks and Presnap penalties negate Tony Jones's rushing yards, were doomed.
The TE plays an important role for pass protection and for those seam routes. Sure hope Nick Kasa or Kyle Slavin or somebody has good hands.
If CU's D allows > four 300 yard passing games, it will be another disappointing season. Greg Brown's squad can not afford to be out of place, miss assignments, and get burned each and every quarter. How about gashers are limited to 2 or fewer per game? Defense must keep opposing offences off the field and give the O a chance to grind teams down.
The kicking game continues to improve, with O'Neill and Oliver becoming more consistent and precise over last season. No sophomore slump. Can CU have somebody step up and be a threat returning kickoffs and punts? It's been a long, long time since CU has had a legitimate threat at the return position.
I'm not too concerned at WR and RB. The talent and coaching is good enough at the skilled positions. Somebody will complement PRich. The running game is dependent on the Oline. If the holes are there, someone will hit them.
The D-Line scares me to death.
Fingers crossed for 3-0 OCC and maybe we'll pick up 3 wins against Utah, Arizona, UCLA and WSU. The Buffs will be underdogs in most conference games. I'm not holding my breath until after we actually see the 2012 Buffs take the field and show us what they got.
Much of the team is vaporware at this point. OK in concept. Completely unproven and no where near battle tested.
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Obviously with Luck gone and them losing some of that stellar OL gone it's going to hurt them and I don't think they'll be a top 5 type of team. That said, their OL is again going to be ferocious--their OL recruiting class is ridiculous and they've had years of good OL now--and their new green QB is going to have a solid running game. They will still be pretty good on ST and this is a year when Shaw has to show it wasn't just Harbough and Luck. With our unproven DL and a group of LBs that weren't spectacular last year, even before Rippy went down, I could see them rushing for 220+ against us. Time will tell, but I don't see us able to take them off of the field. It'll be a field position battle and we've sucked at those for years.
Edit: We also play the Furd at home after USC and UO on the road in back to back to back weeks. That's going to be a long 3 game stretch and Stanford benefits by us having to play the best in the conference before we play them. Hopefully we are hungry for some wins because both teams are going to want to make a statement against us.
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Need Connor Wood to turn into a monster. If not, and most likely not, then we will be lucky to eclipse last years win total. Some of those games last year were beatdowns beyond even Hawkins' worst beatdowns.
If we win three or less there is something SERIOUSLY wrong with how our schedule is this year.
Those Chase Daniel teams were potent. Last year, it was 6-8 UCLA and 6-7 ASU that brutalized Embree.
fwbuff
Well-Known Member
And that's EXACTLY how we want them to look at us. Circle us as an automatic win on the schedule and look ahead to the next week. Show up on cruise control. If we can get a couple teams to fall into that trap, it greatly increases our chances of pulling the couple upsets we may need to get to 6 wins.
Not going to say defense is meaningless (it's not), but it is hard to think we are going to be as bad across the board as we were in 2011, even with a bunch of new faces.
| Year | Scoring Defense | Total Defense | Rush Defense | Passing Efficiency Defense | Turnovers | 3rd Down Conversion Rate | Red Zone Defense |
| 2011 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | T-12 | 11 | 11 |
| 2010 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 2009 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 6 | T-6 | 5 | 3 |
| 2008 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 | T-11 | 4 | 12 |
| 2007 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 5 | T-3 | 2 | 12 |
| 2006 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 | T-4 | 12 | 7 |
Point being: if we are as bad across the board as last season, it will be a problem and we will not win many games. But I am just not sure you can be that bad two years in a row unless we have a catastrophic injury situation or the true freshmen just cannot play at all.
I think we go 6-6 in a rollercoaster of a season - I think we lose one of our first three in crushing fashion (thinking Fresno), but pull off a few huge upsets later in the year after our kids get their sealegs. I'm think we go 4-2 out of (WSU, UA, ASU, Utah, UCLA, and UW), and I am guaranteeing wins over UCLA and Washington. I think Jim Mora is full of sh1t and can't gameday coach worth sh1t either, and we'll be seeing lots of this:
What is Mark Wahlburg doing at UCLA
Insiders are a lot more optimistic, and I think we should be. But anyone from the outside is going to see the glass half empty and here's why:
1. Likely starting a QB who has not taken a college snap. That's never good.
2. Must replace a huge part of our offense in Speedy, Deehan and Clemons.
3. Our TE experience is zilch
4. Our FB experience is zilch
5. We lost two long-time starters at Guard.
#1 above is always huge for people who follow these things, especially early in the season. Optimists would point out that Wood was the #3 pro-style QB recruit out of high school. Pessimists point out that Wood was beaten out last fall by a true freshman for the #3 position on their depth chart. I don't think we can learn much from that. I will say that Jordan Webb is coming in here because the staff believes he will make us better. That may be as a backup that pushes Wood or it may be as the starter. Either way, my expectation is that either QB finishes well down in the ratings for the PAC12 either way.
Our depth chart is a joke and we will be playing true freshmen all over the place including at FB, (likely) about half of the DL, at least one starter in the DB and I'd expect you will see them getting duty at TE, RB, and WR.
Impartial observers would look at our roster (disregarding the schedule) and wonder how the Buffs will be better in 2012.
Frankly, any expectation that Embree has turned the program around at this juncture is unrealistic. Could we possibly surprise and squeak out 6 wins? Yes, but only if the team exceeds expectations against a schedule that is very favorable with lots of first time head coaches (CSU, Fresno State, UofA, ASU, UCLA, WSU). All but one of those teams has a better looking depth chart than CU and that's our friends to the immediate north.
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Fresno State should not be overlooked. They beat Hawaii in Hawaii and won four games (the also lost 3 of last 4 by a FG, a TD and a FG). They return a very good QB. The game is on the road, probably in very hot conditions. Their new head coach is one of the best defensive guys in the business (anyone watch what he got done at Air Force?).
As with most teams that get taken over by Defensive Specialists, they will be improved immediately in my opinion. We start 2-1.
I'd expect we can compete with Arizona on the road and both UCLA, Utah and ASU at home. They won't be gimmies by any stretch. Easily could go 2-2 here.
We will not be favored to beat WSU on the road as they return much more than we do.
We will flat out be large underdogs vs. Stanford, UW, USC and Oregon.
The public opinion for 2012 should be to expect improvement, but not much. The team is being built for 2013-2014. There's just no way to be that much better in 2013 with all the freshmen that will be on the field.
As with most teams that get taken over by Defensive Specialists, they will be improved immediately in my opinion. We start 2-1.
I'd expect we can compete with Arizona on the road and both UCLA, Utah and ASU at home. They won't be gimmies by any stretch. Easily could go 2-2 here.
We will not be favored to beat WSU on the road as they return much more than we do.
We will flat out be large underdogs vs. Stanford, UW, USC and Oregon.
The public opinion for 2012 should be to expect improvement, but not much. The team is being built for 2013-2014. There's just no way to be that much better in 2013 with all the freshmen that will be on the field.
Yes there is. Avoid injuries, out coach other teams, and play with a chip on our shoulders to name a few. If we had a healthy secondary we are in a lot more games last year and I don't think we lose to Cal or WSU. When Orms played, we won, we need him to stay healthy. With our schedule and how many new coaches we face anything less than 5 wins will be disappointing.
Fresno should be a win. They won four games, in a non-AQ conference. More later. Class over.
From Fresno State's spring game:
"We have solidified most of our starting team," DeRuyter said. "The second unit is halfway there so there will be a lot of competition this fall. There are a couple positions still open amongst the starters. There is going to be a lot of competition between here and the first game against Weber State.
"We have solidified most of our starting team," DeRuyter said. "The second unit is halfway there so there will be a lot of competition this fall. There are a couple positions still open amongst the starters. There is going to be a lot of competition between here and the first game against Weber State.
I doubt you are going to find anyone who says Embree has turned around the program. If you trying to say winning more than three games is unrealistic, but if we only win three again, we are looking at a 6-19 record after two seasons. Any coach at a BCS school (or anywhere really) would be put on the hot seat with that start. That is just the way the business is these days.
I have said before that I really have no expectations for this season. I have us at five wins, but really the only expectation is to see a better overall product on the field than I did in 2011. You can see by many of the stats I have posted in this thread that the offense, defense, and special teams were all at or near the bottom of the conference in just about every category. Even with youth, there better be some areas of the team where we can point to clear improvement.
The way this is worded, it sounds like your recipe to get bowl eligible is... to win five games.
They beat Hawaii in Hawaii, we didn't. End of argument.
Oh yes of course having a brand new coaching staff with a different offensive and defensive style had nothing to do with losing.
Ah, so you aren't saying that the D isn't important, you are saying it was so bad that big steps forward are a near certainty (if only because the bar was so low). Therefore, the only real question as to significnat improvement lies with the O.
I was curious and actually looked at their schedule from last season. Now I am getting an idea of why they only won four games. They had five non-conference games against: Cal, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Boise State, and San Diego State with three of those five games on the road. Damn.
Comparing scores of common opponents does not end an argument.
We agree on this then.
If Embree wins 3 games he will be put on the hot seat but frankly, I won't be concerned too much. It's more about what I see than W's at this point. Can we win 6? Yes. Do a lot of fans who post here and on Rivals seem to expect 6 wins imo? Yes. I think that is doing a disservice to JE. We lost a lot of contribution, that's all I'm saying. That contribution will need to be replaced by freshmen. There's no one on the roster today who is going to replace Tony Clemons. People act like Connor Wood will step in and throw 25 TD's and 4 pics. Not going to happen imo.
When you analyze what we did last year, what we lost, and how many true freshmen are going to play, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone outside the program to predict a better outcome. Who else will have a front 4 rotation that will likely include 4 guys participating in spring ball and 4 guys who won't be here until they go thru HS graduation? You won't find a PAC12 team with that situation. You won't find that situation at Fresno State.
I think we could surprise and win 6. I think we will probably win 4 games. You pick 5 so we are pretty darn close here.
you will actually probably point to injuries or some other excuse and remain bullish. I think you have one year of optimism left in you.
Just depends how it happens. If we win four games but are competitive against teams not named Oregon, USC, and possibly Stanford I won't be as worried but if it swings the other direction, questions are going to need to be answered.
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Yes. The bottom dropped out on the defense last season, so there is not any way to go but up. The offensive struggles with so much experience last year is a bit harder to pinpoint. Finishing dead last in the PAC-12 (by about three points no less) in scoring offense with senior starters at QB, RB, one WR spot, TE, and two OL spots is a bit odd.
Meh, Embree knows the current landscape of college football. He knows that no one would be happy with 6 total wins in two seasons. By hot seat, I am not in any way implying he would be fired after two seasons, probably not after three either. But I am saying the fanbase would be pretty anxious and would be somewhat justified in feeling that way. I think pretty much everyone knows that year three needs to be the year with a clear jump in wins.
Deleted member 807
Guest
There is no blaming the OOC schedule this time around. I have never liked the arguement that winning in OOC cupcake games builds confidence that carries over to the conference schedule.
This season's record is a factor of extending our last coach for season five. Another important factor is the speed in which Embree and the other coaches can bring out sound fundimental football skills to a young team.
So long as players aren't shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties and missed assignments, I'm content to point the finger of shame at a non-bowl season towards leadership who have been lackadaisical in their support of building a winner.
Embree belongs on a hotseat if he delivers a losing record this year.
But he has a long leash with me this season except on the issue of penalties and off field issues.
BuffNut99
Club Member
That statement lends itself to my "addition by subtraction" sense of how we're going to see incremental improvement throughout the season. This team will be mentally and physically tougher top to bottom, which will keep us in games we've been accustomed to lose going away. Our biggest obstacle is not talent or depth, it's experience. Losing the November TClem hurts, but I'm expecting to see positional upgrades at QB, RB, and TE. Hansen was average, Deehan was practically a liability, and Speedy was good but had his major weaknesses. We just need some of these freshman to grow up quickly and we need Connor Wood to be better than Hansen was - not a big leap of logic.
Turnovers and penalties have a lot to do with that. We need to clean that stuff up or we are going to be perpetually bad. Even if you have the talent to compete, you are not going to be able to stay with decent teams if you are as undisciplined as we were last year. If I wasn't a buff fan, our follies on offense last year would have been comical.
I can see an upgrade QB and even at TE (although it might not be significant).
But count me skeptical on the upgrade at RB. Stewart had faults, but at end of the day, you cannot argue his production. Not only was he pretty good on the ground (a step back from his junior season though), he was also our second leading receiver.
True.
Our offense lived and died by speedy last year. Missing him is gonna suck. Not gonna miss Deehan or Adkins tho. And I pray to god we don't see dannewitz starting at tackle again.
As far as FB, wash at worst I would think.