Insane money. Brian Kelly purportedly going to LSU for about $15mil per year

[Boulder]

All the moves recently indicated that college football has fundamentally changed. There is really is no room fro mid tier programs in the shifting landscape. Between likeness rights being given out to players, the continued facilities arms race, and now coach salaries the top programs are effectively a minor league for the NFL. A decade plus of poor decision making in addition to bolting to the wrong conference in hindsight has cemented CU as a program with a limited ceiling. The best thing for the Buffs and other programs who cannot keep up with the major brands is separation into a "lessor" division of play. Let the top end programs (who number around 30) build their own division and hope that a program like CU can be a top program in the second tier of programs.

 

[Buffnik]

The tweets about Kelly have been allsome.



Replies to that included the posting of Kelly's official letter of resignation:

 

[Buffnik]

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I was just thinking this- given what Riley is getting at USC, what Tucker is getting at MSU, what Kelly is getting at LSU and so on, is there a better deal than Saban's contract currently?

Think college this way from here on out....

P2
M3
G6

 

[manhattanbuff]

*Nick Saban to Alabama donors/AD/coffers right now*

 

[MiamiBuffs]

 

[hokiehead]

I like to imagine that three SEC coaches all have that clause. It leads to an infinite loop of all three getting continuous raises until their respective AD's go bankrupt.

 

[ahoelsken]

I see your point but I think consistent 9 win seasons is probably beyond their reach as well. I’d say consistent 7-8 wins is achievable with the right mix of administration from above and good coaching/recruiting. 9 wins every year is, well, in the realm of Florida, Okie Light, Wiscy, etc. and I just don’t see that as realistic.

I think its absolutely possible in this league. Step one is this-look at the 9 schools outside of USC and Oregon and take a we have to be at worst the 4th best team of that group every year-and there's no reason why we can't be. We've beaten UW the last two times we've played them. WSU feels a little dysfunctional still-Dickert seems like the right guy to stabilize things, but I'm not sure he's going to be there long term. Jonathan Smith is a damn good coach-but he still is at Oregon State. There's a ceiling there, and I think he could move onto a better job. Justin Wilcox is going to leave Cal. He's too good a coach for that program, and I'd have taken him here after Tucker left. Stanford might be at the end of a great run with Shaw. UCLA's beatable every year-this group competed for a half with them and beat them last year. Arizona's going to take years to recover from the disaster that Sumlin was. ASU's transition from Herm is inevitable.

How ****ing hard can that be?

 

[Bliff Cranch]

I think its absolutely possible in this league. Step one is this-look at the 9 schools outside of USC and Oregon and take a we have to be at worst the 4th best team of that group every year-and there's no reason why we can't be. We've beaten UW the last two times we've played them. WSU feels a little dysfunctional still-Dickert seems like the right guy to stabilize things, but I'm not sure he's going to be there long term. Jonathan Smith is a damn good coach-but he still is at Oregon State. There's a ceiling there, and I think he could move onto a better job. Justin Wilcox is going to leave Cal. He's too good a coach for that program, and I'd have taken him here after Tucker left. Stanford might be at the end of a great run with Shaw. UCLA's beatable every year-this group competed for a half with them and beat them last year. Arizona's going to take years to recover from the disaster that Sumlin was. ASU's transition from Herm is inevitable.

How ****ing hard can that be?

I think best case is to expect CU going 3-2 against the south each year. Losses to USC and either Utah or UCLA every year. That means CU beats the Arizona schools every year regardless of home or away. Expecting to go 4-1 in the south means beating both Utah and UCLA, whether home or away. Every year. That’s a very tall task and given relative recruiting footprints just not in the cards. Maybe they go 4-1 in the south every 3 or 4 seasons but not every year. So, I’m going with 3-2 in the south each year as a realistic, do every year, ceiling.

CU should, and probably will, continue to schedule one cupcake and two P5 games in non-conference. It’s realistic to think they go 2-1 in those with a loss on the road to a quality P5 opponent. Occasionally they go 3-0 in those but regularly expect to go 2-1.

So, CU is at a 5-3 run rate with the north to fill out the slate. I think best case is they go 3-1 against the north on a regular basis.

8-4 is a realistic, do every season, ceiling.

 

[krom]

I think its absolutely possible in this league. Step one is this-look at the 9 schools outside of USC and Oregon and take a we have to be at worst the 4th best team of that group every year-and there's no reason why we can't be. We've beaten UW the last two times we've played them. WSU feels a little dysfunctional still-Dickert seems like the right guy to stabilize things, but I'm not sure he's going to be there long term. Jonathan Smith is a damn good coach-but he still is at Oregon State. There's a ceiling there, and I think he could move onto a better job. Justin Wilcox is going to leave Cal. He's too good a coach for that program, and I'd have taken him here after Tucker left. Stanford might be at the end of a great run with Shaw. UCLA's beatable every year-this group competed for a half with them and beat them last year. Arizona's going to take years to recover from the disaster that Sumlin was. ASU's transition from Herm is inevitable.

How ****ing hard can that be?

The bar is so low. It’s clear there is just no vested interest at the top in being successful.

 

[PAHIBuff]

I think best case is to expect CU going 3-2 against the south each year. Losses to USC and either Utah or UCLA every year. That means CU beats the Arizona schools every year regardless of home or away. Expecting to go 4-1 in the south means beating both Utah and UCLA, whether home or away. Every year. That’s a very tall task and given relative recruiting footprints just not in the cards. Maybe they go 4-1 in the south every 3 or 4 seasons but not every year. So, I’m going 3-2 in the south each year as a realistic, do every year, ceiling.

CU should, and probably will, continue to schedule one cupcake and two P5 games in non-conference. It’s realistic to think they go 2-1 in those with a loss on the road to a quality P5 opponent. Occasionally they go 3-0 in those but regularly expect to go 2-1.

So, CU is at a 5-3 run rate with the north to fill out the slate. I think best case is they go 3-1 against the north on a regular basis.

8-4 is a realistic, do every season, ceiling.

Great post, and to emphasize, Ceiling. After a couple of much better than average recruiting years, which the current one doesn't appear to be.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I thought Kelly got $15m/year?

 

[Jens1893]

I thought Kelly got $15m/year?

With/without incentives would be my guess.

 

[manhattanbuff]

I thought Kelly got $15m/year?

I’m seeing $9.5mm per year with attainable incentives to push him around $10mm per year. Only hits the $15mm per year mark if he wins everything.

 

[Jens1893]

I’m seeing $9.5mm per year with attainable incentives to push him around $10mm per year. Only hits the $15mm per year mark if he wins everything.

If you can pay 15m a year guaranteed I think you get everyone but maybe Saban. That's 50% more than what Saban gets.

 

[manhattanbuff]

If you can pay 15m a year guaranteed I think you get everyone but maybe Saban. That's 50% more than what Saban gets.

Not for long. As always, he and his agent wait for the carousel to stop and he collects his annual pay raise. Maybe he’ll even have enough to buy another Mercedes-Benz point.

 

[Jens1893]

Not for long. As always, he and his agent wait for the carousel to stop and he collects his annual pay raise. Maybe he’ll even have enough to buy another Mercedes-Benz point.

Yes, but my point rather was that I was always skeptical about those 15m as I do not see anyone, certainly not BK, resetting the market like this except for maybe Saban if he plays hardball.

 

[manhattanbuff]

Yes, but my point rather was that I was always skeptical about those 15m as I do not see anyone, certainly not BK, resetting the market like this except for maybe Saban if he plays hardball.

Oh for sure. BK’s agent was just trying to get the biggest number out there to fuel up his own PR. My guess is that Saban ends up around $11-$12mm in base salary after this cycle is over.

 

[Jens1893]

Oh for sure. BK’s agent was just trying to get the biggest number out there to fuel up his own PR. My guess is that Saban ends up around $11-$12mm in base salary after this cycle is over.

The way Schefter, Rapoport and all the other insiders are willingly agreeing to become mouthpieces for the agents is beginning to get a little problematic.

 

[manhattanbuff]

The way Schefter, Rapoport and all the other insiders are willingly agreeing to become mouthpieces for the agents is beginning to get a little problematic.

I guess. Coach salaries tend to be pretty close to the truth. NFL salary reporting now always includes the guaranteed number, so that’s fine since it’s the only relevant amount.

 

[Jens1893]

I guess. Coach salaries tend to be pretty close to the truth. NFL salary reporting now always includes the guaranteed number, so that’s fine since it’s the only relevant amount.

And even there I think the term "guarantee" gets stretched as I think the only really relevant thing is the guarantee at signing and not an injury guarantee for year three or a guaranteed fourth year salary that triggers if he's on the roster for year three.

 

[MiamiBuffs]