that's horrrible. wow.
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MBB Game Thread: Buffs vs. The Beavs
- Thread starter Scotch
- Start date
The PPP numbers for conference play are like a horror show.
Utah - 1.12 ppp
ASU - 1.16
Zona - 1.14
UCLA - 1.37
USC - 1.08
UDub - 1.09
Wazzu - 1.20
OSU - 1.15
Tad's going grey and fat this season. Now I know why.
would it be crazy to have a starting 5 of: AZ, White, King, XJ, Wes
I'm wondering if AZ plays so out of control off the bench because he comes in and thinks he has to score and generate offense. With White, King and XJ, that is enough offensive firepower and I really can't tell if anybody can play defense, because the entire team has been terrible in conference.
I'm wondering if AZ plays so out of control off the bench because he comes in and thinks he has to score and generate offense. With White, King and XJ, that is enough offensive firepower and I really can't tell if anybody can play defense, because the entire team has been terrible in conference.
The problem with Tommy is that he's a below average shooter. When he's shooting at his current capability, that can be fine since he'd still knock down enough to keep a defense honest. But the depth of his shooting funk this season has put him at a number I'm confident that I could match... 5% from 3pt. That's too big of a hole in someone's game.
Combine that with the fact that his defense is, um, let's go with "spotty at best" and it's a huge liability on the court. You need to be exceptional in other areas to overcome that (see: Miler, Andre).
His shooting is such a mystery to me. He actually has a negative offensive win share right now, so you are right, even with the assists. If he had any kind of 3 point shot, like Dre bad, it would be a huge improvement. He shot 28% from 3 last year, worked hard in the offseason and shot 33% at the U20 tournament over the summer, and then shoots 5% this year. I know the team is down across the board on 3 point %, but this is the mother of all slumps. The defensive rating for this team is sad. Our best defender in conference: Lucas Siewert at 113.7
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
The only game that they did well in limiting their turnovers and creating turnovers/steals was OSU.
PPP will be high but can be minimized by not letting team get shots.
I'm still super high on Lucas (never give up on freshman bigs), but if he's your best defender than it's a flaming dumpster fire. Lucas' ceiling on defense is "not ****ty".
Come on, his ceiling is mediocre. I expect him to move up to "not ****ty". Small sample sized and all with his limited minutes, but that is just plain frightening that he is the leading conference defender, because he is a disaster defensively. I, too, am still excited about his potential.
I hope his ceiling is mediocre. Maybe I'm too hard on him.
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
What goes into a Defensive rating and what are the ratings of others on the team (behind Lucas)
Defensive rating is basically how likely is a player is going to stop an opposing player via a block, forced turnover, or defensive rebound plus an estimate for stuff that isn't tracked via a box score (uncredited turnovers, missed shot with offensive rebound, etc). It is very inexact since it relies on team defense but won't reward a defender who covers his man but doesn't get a block, steal, or rebound. That missed shot is part of the team calculation.
So that is extrapolated over 100 possessions. If your rating is lower than 100, you give up less than 1 point per possession and are a good defender (possibly great based on position) if your rating is over 100 you are mediocre or bad.
Here is our team. Stick to conference right now
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/colorado/2016.html
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
Yeah. My big issue with that stat is that it doesn't reward a player for denying the ball in the first place, which is more than half the battle when playing man defense.
Yes and all of the basic ones are incredibly flawed. There's a real plus minus stat that is better but still eh.... @jgisland probably knows more.
(Definitely knows more)
flawed, really? I mean, if you simply track the team's +/- for the time a player is on the court doesn't that give a representative quantification of the player's impact to the team as a whole?
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
There is an Offensive and Defensive Plus Minus Box but not sure what the numbers mean.
Wes is far and away the best in the Defensive Plus Minus Box
Wes is far and away the best in the Defensive Plus Minus Box
Buffs Basketball Fan
Well-Known Member
In this world of analytics, this information has to be out there.
I know some other Pac-12 teams use analytics
I know some other Pac-12 teams use analytics
The numbers are more useful for +/- for five man units as opposed to individuals. Small sample sizes also plague the statistic, and with that in mind, those numbers are more reliable in the NBA than in college. Basketball in general being a game of runs can lead to some wonky numbers, plus, as I understand it, the simple fact that there are a lot more points in basketball than in hockey can sometimes make the +/- meaningless.
I'm a fan of BPM in the NBA. Like any advanced nerd stat, it needs context but you generally see pretty obvious correlation. For example, LeBron has 2 of the 3 greatest seasons on record by BPM, and that's all I'm going to say about that 
Unfortunately, basketball box scoring is outdated as some things like steals and blocks are overvalued over more important things like staying in front of your man, maintaining position, and defending without fouling. Or affecting a shot without even getting a block recorded! Someone like Allen Iverson looks real good in a box score but everyone knows his defense was trash (should clarify, his steal #s look good.)
Similarly, someone like Dirk averages 7 rebounds and the entire world thinks he doesn't rebound enough for a 7 footer without taking into account that 7rpg is pretty much average for big men on the defensive side of the ball, obviously a perimeter player like Dirk isn't going to be snatching ORPG like crazy!
Unfortunately, basketball box scoring is outdated as some things like steals and blocks are overvalued over more important things like staying in front of your man, maintaining position, and defending without fouling. Or affecting a shot without even getting a block recorded! Someone like Allen Iverson looks real good in a box score but everyone knows his defense was trash (should clarify, his steal #s look good.)
Similarly, someone like Dirk averages 7 rebounds and the entire world thinks he doesn't rebound enough for a 7 footer without taking into account that 7rpg is pretty much average for big men on the defensive side of the ball, obviously a perimeter player like Dirk isn't going to be snatching ORPG like crazy!
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raw plus minus is the worst stat to measure individuals in all of basketball (raw points per game is a better stat). If you put me on the court with 4 first team all americans I'd have an amazing plus minus. Plus minus is much better if you look at it in the form of 5 man units. There has been some work on adjusted plus minus that's a little more telling. Most of that work is centered around the NBA and not as much for CBB.