Some stats on are in on the NFL's changes:
Back in 2010, 15% of kickoffs were touchbacks, that's up to 62% today, and onside kick recoveries are down by 50%.
All of which means that kickoffs are becoming more and more pointless, while sucking up a tremendous amount of time (score, beer commercial, extra point, truck commercial, kickoff, tv show commercial)
Even without the commercial breaks, kickoffs take the longest of any particular play to set up:
- There's no clock, so no reason for anyone to set up quickly,
- a completely different set of players needs to get on the field
- the kicker has to get their tee setup,
- the officials have to shuttle in the special kicking ball,
- the kicker has to set the ball in the tee,
- everyone has to get lined up,
- the kicker signals,
- the ref signals,
- and then if something actually happens, there's frequently a penalty which:
- likely negates any exciting outcome of the play
- or results in having to do the whole thing over again
- finally, due to the higher frequency of injury, there are more injury time outs too
and while all this is going on, the excitement in the stadium is slowly deflating...
Which leaves room for a solution that probably increases excitement, takes less time, and generates fewer injuries. But most interesting of all is that the
owner's well paid ventriloquist dummy league commissioner is actually advocating for a particular solution:
Eliminate kickoffs entirely.
The idea is to give the offense that just scored the ball on their own 30 yard line with a 4th & 15 scenario. They can go for it - or punt.
Apparently, the historic norm for on-side kick recovery has been around 15%,
after the safety driven rules changes this year it's 8%. The stats geeks say that 4 & 15 conversions are usually converted around 12.5% of the time, so the numbers are at least close. And that 12.5% would be expected to rise a little bit as offenses spent more time working on that specific scenario. There are also the "offensive momentum" arguments, as well as "tired" defense arguments - which ties back to the "it will make the game go faster" idea: offenses would be pushing to get on the field quickly to maintain their momentum advantage instead of all the dilly-dallying around you get right now for setting up the kick off. Give teams a competitive reason to go faster, and they'll go faster.
Regardless, the point is that it's unlikely that the 4th & 15s would be converted at a faster rate than onside kicks have historically been converted, so you're not talking about a major change in outcomes in the "go for it" scenario.