I think I love this.
Net punting is around 40 yards, so a punt is usually going to give the pall around the 20. And punt returns are a lot more exiting than kickoff returns.
The 4th & 15 play would be so much better than an onside kick, which takes forever and always results in multiple reviews if anything close to a recovery happens from it.
Sign me up!
I agree with what you are saying about the effects on college rosters. If kickoffs were eliminated, there wouldn't be the need for those extra players for special teams. Just imagine how many schools would find it easier to be in compliance with Title IX and how many more sports could be added as a result. Maybe colleges will be able to actually start paying the players.
I do question whether an 85 man roster is necessary, though. If you need 85, why is the max travel roster 70? Could we go down to 75, especially with the new redshirt rule that allows guys to play in 4 games without losing any eligibility?I don’t follow this logic at all. Are you suggesting colleges would add women to their football rosters? Or are you suggesting they would voluntarily trim their rosters of males?
I don’t see either happening, so I’m wondering what I’m missing.
Ok, but that’s a separate discussion, I think.I do question whether an 85 man roster is necessary, though. If you need 85, why is the max travel roster 70? Could we go down to 75, especially with the new redshirt rule that allows guys to play in 4 games without losing any eligibility?
FIFY.We could be up 21-0 before their offense has a chance to see the field!
FIFY.
More seriously though: it's very, very unlikely that any coach would ever pursue that strategy.
Tl;dr reason: math
Reason:
The 12.5% 4th and 15 conversion rate calculation actually came from college. Or, in other words, 4th and 15 is converted less often than traditional on-sides kicks (before all the rules changes).
Maybe with the current disparity between and offense and defense that conversion rate goes up to 20%. It's still a low percentage play with a big downside if you don't convert: the other team gets the ball in field goal range of many kickers, and a first down away from most kickers' range.
Let's do some back of the envelope math on what it would take to go up 21-0 without the other team even getting the ball on offense:
Start with a coin flip (this would make beginning of game strategy really interesting btw) 50% chance you start with 4th & 15 scenario and 50% chance the other team does (we won't count this "possession" as a possession for them, because we're assuming the other team just punts).
Assume that if the offense converts the 4th & 15 (or receives the opening punt) that they end up scoring on the drive 90% of the time (that seems high, but we'll go with it)
Let's also assume that if they score, they get a touchdown (also a ridiculously high estimate)
Finally, this high powered offense converts the 4th & 15 50% of the time (again, that's probably really, really high)
0.5 (chance you start by receiving opening punt) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) + 0.5 (chance you start in 4th & 15) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown)
= 13.7 % chance you can go up by 21 - 0.
Now, weigh that estimate against the cumulative chances that you'll give the other team's offense the ball somewhere between your own 30 and 45 (assumes no tackles for loss or turnovers):
0.5 (chance you start in 4th & 15) x 0.5 (chance you fail to convert) = 25% chance when the game is still 0 - 0.
Not going to show all the work, but 33.75 % chance they get the ball when you're only up 7 - 0.
And 15.2% chance they get the ball on your side of the field when you're up 14-0.
So, even with ridiculously high estimates of the efficiency at which a team can convert both the 4th & 15s and turn those conversions into touchdowns, your chances of a team going up 21-0 without the other team's offense ever seeing the ball are only 14%, compared against the 74% chance that their offense would get the ball on your side of the field before that happens.
If you put more realistic conversion odds in there, the odds of success vs the downside risk become even more disparate.
So no, no sane person would actually pursue that strategy, and the crazy ones that did would get burned almost every time they tried it.
FIFY.
More seriously though: it's very, very unlikely that any coach would ever pursue that strategy.
Tl;dr reason: math
Reason:
The 12.5% 4th and 15 conversion rate calculation rate actually came from college. Or, in other words, 4th and 15 is converted less often than traditional on-sides kicks (before all the rules changes).
Maybe with the current disparity between and offense and defense that conversion rate goes up to 20%. It's still a low percentage play with a big downside if you don't convert: the other team gets the ball in field goal range of many kickers, and a first down away from most kickers' range.
Let's do some back of the envelope math on what it would take to go up 21-0 without the other team even getting the ball on offense:
Start with a coin flip (this would make beginning of game strategy really interesting btw) 50% chance you start with 4th & 15 scenario and 50% chance the other team does (we won't count this "possession" as a possession for them, because we're assuming the other team just punts).
Assume that if the offense converts the 4th & 15 (or receives the opening punt) that they end up scoring on the drive 90% of the time (that seems high, but we'll go with it)
Let's also assume that if they score, they get a touchdown (also a ridiculously high estimate)
Finally, this high powered offense converts the 4th & 15 50% of the time (again, that's probably really, really high)
0.5 (chance you start by receiving opening punt) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) + 0.5 (chance you start in 4th & 15) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown) x 0.5 (chance you convert 4th & 15) x 0.9 (chance you get a touchdown)
= 13.7 % chance you can go up by 21 - 0.
Now, weigh that estimate against the cumulative chances that you'll give the other team's offense the ball somewhere between your own 30 and 45 (assumes no tackles for loss or turnovers):
0.5 (chance you start in 4th & 15) x 0.5 (chance you fail to convert) = 25% chance when the game is still 0 - 0.
Not going to show all the work, but 33.75 % chance they get the ball when you're only up 7 - 0.
And 15.2% chance they get the ball on your side of the field when you're up 14-0.
So, even with ridiculously high estimates of the efficiency at which a team can convert both the 4th & 15s and turn those conversions into touchdowns, your chances of a team going up 21-0 without the other team's offense ever seeing the ball are only 14%, compared against the 74% chance that their offense would get the ball on your side of the field before that happens.
If you put more realistic conversion odds in there, the odds of success vs the downside risk become even more disparate.
So no, no sane person would actually pursue that strategy, and the crazy ones that did would get burned almost every time they tried it.