Official 2016 Bubble Watch Thread

[MtnBuff]

With respect to recruiting, I don't see much that backs up anyone's argument here. What I see is that CU has recruited well except when Tad has backed himself into a corner by shooting for the moon with some blue chip guards and then having to scramble to find a backup plan. Generally, he has recruited to a strong program with recent facility upgrades in a good conference and has benefited from the good pub from players getting drafted.

2010 Class, following an improved season after no one signed in fall and coaching change:
Ben Mills (spring addition Coach A had found while Bz polished his resume that year)
Andre Roberson (spring addition Coach A had found & Tad had offered at UNCo)
Sabatino Chen (transfer from DU Tad had first recruited at UNCo)

2011 Class, ahead of NIT run and using momentum from improvement & coaching change:
Damien Cain (highest rated player in class with the hat ceremony and all)
Spencer Dinwiddie (Top 150 guy CU held on for against late UCLA push)
Askia Booker (Top 25 CA who Tad took a flyer on)
Jeremy Adams (JUCO bounceback from aTm who was a former Top 150)

2012 Class, after the NIT run with Alec a lottery pick and Cory getting a UFA contract:
Josh Scott (in-state 4* Top 100 - around 50 iirc - who committed 3/3 before post-season started)
Wes Gordon (in-state Top 150 who committed 3/6 before post-season started)
Xavier Johnson (4* October commitment)
Xavier Talton (in-state 3* accepted in November after Buddy Hield committed to Oklahoma & Tyrone Wallace committed to Cal -- both OV'd to CU)
Chris Jenkins (Michigan G/F Tad took a flyer on - 12ppg and 46% 3pt for Detroit U this year)
Eli Stalzer (spring addition to class after coaches got nervous at XT's senior season)

2013 Class, after the Pac-12 title and 1st NCAAT appearance:
Tre'Shaun Fletcher (Top 150 type signed over Arizona State & Washington State OVs)
Jaron Hopkins (Top 150 type signed over Oregon State & Washington State OVs)
Dustin Thomas (late riser CU beat Oklahoma for)
George King (spring addition flyer Tad saw play when his traveling team had a game in CO)

2014 Class, after NCAA tourney and Dre drafted in 1st round:
Dominique Collier (in-state Top 100 signed over a bunch of P6 offers)
Tory Miller (prep school stash from 2013 CU signed over Arizona State, Iowa & Marquette OVs)
Josh Fortune (transfer from Providence after starting as a freshman for their NCAAT squad)

2015 Class, following NCAA tourney and Spencer drafted in 2nd round:
Tomas Akyazilli (spring signing after missing on Landry Shamet & Tyler Dorsey)
Kenan Guzonjic (spring signing after transfer decision by Dustin Thomas)
Derrick White (spring transfer after transfer decision by Jaron Hopkins)

2016 Class, following CBI disaster:
Deleon Brown (prep school stash from 2015 who is a leading scorer for powerhouse NH Prep)
Bryce Peters (Top 150 type who has blown up as a senior)
Dallas Walton (spring addition in-state skilled & athletic 7 footer recovering from injuries)
TBD (maybe Lucas Siewert, a stretch 4 who originally committed to Sendek at ASU)

Nik,

Certainly talent that compares with most of our PAC12 rivals. Not at the top ot the league but good enough to compete, and in fact we have spent most of the season in a position where we could end up in the top half of the league.

Problem comes with that talent missing some certain skills. Limited ability from the guards and wings to slash or to create and make their own shot when things break down.

Also interesting that some of the best players have been guys that weren't the highest rated recuits, guys like King and Dre.

 

[seattlebuff]

Zandi. The other big thing you're not considering here is the fan base. I think we all agree having the Keg full, especially the student section, is a big deal and an actual advantage. We need to get the CUnit back in high gear. Going to the NIT just ain't gonna do that.

 

[aghcsm]

That's the same as saying we shouldn't go to the NIT if we don't make the NCAAT. I completely disagree with that. This team NEEDS the practice, so why not play 2, 3, maybe 5 games?

That was the rationale fir the CBI last year...not sure those 2 games were worth the participation fee.

 

[Buffnik]

Some intriguing games tonight.

LSU is at Arkansas. Everyone wants LSU in and having a good conference record could justify if the RPI (currently 88) gets reasonable. 5pm, ESPNU

Vanderbilt at Florida. Big game for a couple reasons. For the Buffs (RPI 35), Florida is in the way at RPI 32. Gator loss would help CU. Vanderbilt is on the Bubble at RPI 65 and was a preseason analyst favorite that has the talent to make noise in the Dance. 5pm, SECN

Alabama at #16 Kentucky. Kentucky is a stone cold lock playing for seeding at this point. Alabama is very much on the Bubble, though. RPI 48 and if they won could jump CU. Go Kentucky! 5pm, ESPN

Temple at Tulsa. This is a huge mid-major Bubble game. Temple at RPI 57, Tulsa at 37. Better for CU if Temple wins and mucks things up with both in the 40s or 50s on Selection Sunday. 5pm, ESPNN

#2 Kansas at #19 Baylor. Just a great game between 2 tournament teams jockying for seeding. Kansas can get very close to another regular season title with a win. 6pm, ESPN2

#6 Michigan State at Ohio State. This is THE opportunity for THE Ohio State University. OSU comes in as RPI 76. Win and they're firmly in the conversation. Lose and in bad shape. 7pm, ESPN

 

[Denver_sc]

Can someone explain to me the LSU love? I've seen them on the same seeding line (or higher) than the Buffs this year, and their OOC was very, very, weak and even though they have a good conference record I have not been impressed with the SEC this year. What gives?

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

LSU is sinking like the Titanic....they lost their 2nd best player Hornsby for the rest of the season.

 

[Buffnik]

Can someone explain to me the LSU love? I've seen them on the same seeding line (or higher) than the Buffs this year, and their OOC was very, very, weak and even though they have a good conference record I have not been impressed with the SEC this year. What gives?

Ben Simmons. People want to see him play.

 

[ZandiBuff]

Zandi. The other big thing you're not considering here is the fan base. I think we all agree having the Keg full, especially the student section, is a big deal and an actual advantage. We need to get the CUnit back in high gear. Going to the NIT just ain't gonna do that.

I completely agree that the student section can be a huge factor. I just don't see going and getting blown out by 35 as a way to get them there.
NIT games are played at home, at least they can be based on seed. I think a tourney run there with at least 2 games at home COULD be a building factor.

 

[Darth Snow]

I completely agree that the student section can be a huge factor. I just don't see going and getting blown out by 35 as a way to get them there.
NIT games are played at home, at least they can be based on seed. I think a tourney run there with at least 2 games at home COULD be a building factor.

but almost certainly wouldn't. Especially, say, compared to all the free pub and hype from going to the tourney.

 

[CVilleBuff]

How many of us here can name the last 3 NIT winners right off the top of their head? I can't, and I'd consider myself a pretty diehard college basketball fan.

 

[aghcsm]

I think we've concluded that Zandi prefers the NIT and everyone else likes the NCAA. That's ok, some people prefer horse-drawn carts to motor vehicles. I suggest we wrap up the discussion.

 

[jsmilkst]

I think we've concluded that Zandi prefers the NIT and everyone else likes the NCAA. That's ok, some people prefer horse-drawn carts to motor vehicles. I suggest we wrap up the discussion.

I remain unconvinced. I think out best bet is to get a NIT invite, lose in the first round, and see if we can backdoor our way in to CBI after that. Exposure in 2 tourneys seems better than 1.

 

[CVilleBuff]

I remain unconvinced. I think out best bet is to get a NIT invite, lose in the first round, and see if we can backdoor our way in to CBI after that. Exposure in 2 tourneys seems better than 1.

VCU's 2011 Final Four was nice, but in 2010 they won the CBI and actually got to play 5 games. Better experience, more practice, IMO.

 

[Johnny Juzang]

Ben Simmons. People want to see him play.

Yep. That simple.

It's funny, the guy he reminds me most of at the respective stage of their careers is Lamar Odom. Great ball skills for a big, good post up game, but not much of a mid-range game. His jump shot needs work.

 

[Buffnik]

Early results tonight have been mostly good for CU.

Akron lost at Miami (OH). Horrible loss that dropped the Zips from RPI 38 to

Tulsa beat Temple, which jumped them up from 37 to 32 -- now ahead of CU. Temple now at 61 and in bad shape.

Florida losing at home to Vanderbilt dropped them from 32 to 41 (while Vandy moved from 62 to 52).

LSU dropped from 88 to 90 after getting crushed at Arkansas. Can they still be called a Bubble team?

Alabama losing at Kentucky dropped them from 48 to 50.

 

[CVilleBuff]

LSU can't be called a bubble team anymore. You aren't a bubble team when your RPI is 91. Anyone that has them in the field is a joker.

 

[Buffnik]

Ohio State's loss to Michigan State only dropped them from 76 to 77.

 

[aghcsm]

LSU can't be called a bubble team anymore. You aren't a bubble team when your RPI is 91. Anyone that has them in the field is a joker.

Auburn beat Arkansas on their home court. LSU is not only far from the bubble, they're not a good team.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Horrible loss for VCU at George Mason. Rams down to 63

 

[ahoelsken]

We're in with this win tonight, and its not even close-The best thing about our resume is we do not have a sub 100 RPI loss.....compare that with Alabama (2), Providence (2), Syracuse (2), Wisconsin (4). All of those teams show up on Palm's bubble watch as "In for now" or "On the fence". I'd go as far as to say this group is play for a 6 seed with how bad this bubble is.

 

[CVilleBuff]

We're in with this win tonight, and its not even close-The best thing about our resume is we do not have a sub 100 RPI loss.....compare that with Alabama (2), Providence (2), Syracuse (2), Wisconsin (4). All of those teams show up on Palm's bubble watch as "In for now" or "On the fence". I'd go as far as to say this group is play for a 6 seed with how bad this bubble is.

If we were to hypothetically come out hungover, lose to ASU, get drilled at Utah, and then pick up another uninspiring loss while going one and done in Vegas, we'd find ourselves sweating quite heavily. The no bad losses on the resume is great, but we don't have the strongest collection of top 50 wins, even after tonight. We need another win to feel comfortable. If a power conference squad is ever going to get ****ed by being left out despite being in the top 40 RPI, it'd probably be us. We're CU, we get screwed.

 

[aghcsm]

If we were to hypothetically come out hungover, lose to ASU, get drilled at Utah, and then pick up another uninspiring loss while going one and done in Vegas, we'd find ourselves sweating quite heavily. The no bad losses on the resume is great, but we don't have the strongest collection of top 50 wins, even after tonight. We need another win to feel comfortable. If a power conference squad is ever going to get ****ed by being left out despite being in the top 40 RPI, it'd probably be us. We're CU, we get screwed.

ASU is the clincher. We're 2 points short of being undefeated at home, and tonight's game proved (1) the win over Oregon was not a fluke, and (2) the poor play at CEC v the Washingtons is in the past, and/ or maybe only happens when JS is out. Not much chance we would have beat AZ without him.

Don't have confidence away from CEC, but I think we're solid to pound ASU.

 

[99'Buff]

With respect to recruiting, I don't see much that backs up anyone's argument here. What I see is that CU has recruited well except when Tad has backed himself into a corner by shooting for the moon with some blue chip guards and then having to scramble to find a backup plan. Generally, he has recruited to a strong program with recent facility upgrades in a good conference and has benefited from the good pub from players getting drafted.

2010 Class, following an improved season after no one signed in fall and coaching change:
Ben Mills (spring addition Coach A had found while Bz polished his resume that year)
Andre Roberson (spring addition Coach A had found & Tad had offered at UNCo)
Sabatino Chen (transfer from DU Tad had first recruited at UNCo)

2011 Class, ahead of NIT run and using momentum from improvement & coaching change:
Damien Cain (highest rated player in class with the hat ceremony and all)
Spencer Dinwiddie (Top 150 guy CU held on for against late UCLA push)
Askia Booker (Top 25 CA who Tad took a flyer on)
Jeremy Adams (JUCO bounceback from aTm who was a former Top 150)

2012 Class, after the NIT run with Alec a lottery pick and Cory getting a UFA contract:
Josh Scott (in-state 4* Top 100 - around 50 iirc - who committed 3/3 before post-season started)
Wes Gordon (in-state Top 150 who committed 3/6 before post-season started)
Xavier Johnson (4* October commitment)
Xavier Talton (in-state 3* accepted in November after Buddy Hield committed to Oklahoma & Tyrone Wallace committed to Cal -- both OV'd to CU)
Chris Jenkins (Michigan G/F Tad took a flyer on - 12ppg and 46% 3pt for Detroit U this year)
Eli Stalzer (spring addition to class after coaches got nervous at XT's senior season)

2013 Class, after the Pac-12 title and 1st NCAAT appearance:
Tre'Shaun Fletcher (Top 150 type signed over Arizona State & Washington State OVs)
Jaron Hopkins (Top 150 type signed over Oregon State & Washington State OVs)
Dustin Thomas (late riser CU beat Oklahoma for)
George King (spring addition flyer Tad saw play when his traveling team had a game in CO)

2014 Class, after NCAA tourney and Dre drafted in 1st round:
Dominique Collier (in-state Top 100 signed over a bunch of P6 offers)
Tory Miller (prep school stash from 2013 CU signed over Arizona State, Iowa & Marquette OVs)
Josh Fortune (transfer from Providence after starting as a freshman for their NCAAT squad)

2015 Class, following NCAA tourney and Spencer drafted in 2nd round:
Tomas Akyazilli (spring signing after missing on Landry Shamet & Tyler Dorsey)
Kenan Guzonjic (spring signing after transfer decision by Dustin Thomas)
Derrick White (spring transfer after transfer decision by Jaron Hopkins)

2016 Class, following CBI disaster:
Deleon Brown (prep school stash from 2015 who is a leading scorer for powerhouse NH Prep)
Bryce Peters (Top 150 type who has blown up as a senior)
Dallas Walton (spring addition in-state skilled & athletic 7 footer recovering from injuries)
TBD (maybe Lucas Siewert, a stretch 4 who originally committed to Sendek at ASU)

A little late to the party, but I'd like to point out to Zandi that 3*'s King, Fortune and Wes were 3 of the top 6 players on the court last night. Vaunted 4* Chance Comanche and 4/5* Justin Simon (top-25 player on some lists) couldn't even get off the bench last night for the Wildcats. Yes, I'd like to see top-100 players regularly committing to CU, but Tad has a way of finding overlooked players that work in his system (guys that actually have an interest in playing defense).

I'll wager that Bryce Peters has a much better college career than Justin Simon.

 

[ZandiBuff]

A little late to the party, but I'd like to point out to Zandi that 3*'s King, Fortune and Wes were 3 of the top 6 players on the court last night. Vaunted 4* Chance Comanche and 4/5* Justin Simon (top-25 player on some lists) couldn't even get off the bench last night for the Wildcats. Yes, I'd like to see top-100 players regularly committing to CU, but Tad has a way of finding overlooked players that work in his system (guys that actually have an interest in playing defense).

I'll wager that Bryce Peters has a much better college career than Justin Simon.

I was happy to let it die, but since you brought it back up, who is the #1 player most people (not just me) have bitched about not living up to his potential? Josh Fortune. So yes, he had a great game. But to say we should stick to players like him and be happy, I think you'll see we win less than we lose.

 

[99'Buff]

What about Wes? King? Do you think Derrick White will be a bust? How about a little further back with Spencer? Roberson? Or those 3*'s who Tad just missed on (Tyrone Wallace and Buddy Hield) Or maybe let's look at a 3* like Arizona's Ryan Anderson. He built his game and matured into the best all-around player on a top-10 team. College basketball recruiting is a different animal. Yes, stars matter, but you can win without 5* guys. Just look at what Wisconsin did the past few years (and is starting to do again this year).

All things being equal, I'd love for Tad to bring in highly-rated recruits every year. But I give him the benefit of the doubt since he's hit on a number of lower rated guys up to this point, and the ones he's recruited and just missed on haven't been too shabby either.

 

[Denver_sc]

Akron lost at Miami (OH). Horrible loss that dropped the Zips from RPI 38 to

Wow. that must have been a bad loss. I don't think I've ever seen a loss drop someone completely out of the RPI rankings.

A little late to the party, but I'd like to point out to Zandi that 3*'s King, Fortune and Wes were 3 of the top 6 players on the court last night. Vaunted 4* Chance Comanche and 4/5* Justin Simon (top-25 player on some lists) couldn't even get off the bench last night for the Wildcats. Yes, I'd like to see top-100 players regularly committing to CU, but Tad has a way of finding overlooked players that work in his system (guys that actually have an interest in playing defense).

I'll wager that Bryce Peters has a much better college career than Justin Simon.

AWESOME! I've been thinking that the stars argument has been the one thing missing from the basketball board!

Lay off Zandi, by the way. He's crushed that CU's going to be going to the NCAAT instead of the NIT after last night.

 

[99'Buff]

I realize the stars argument has been beaten to death, but I also think too many folks are new to basketball and see college basketball recruiting in the same vein as college football recruiting. Very different animals.

 

[Buffnik]

Wow. that must have been a bad loss. I don't think I've ever seen a loss drop someone completely out of the RPI rankings.

To complete that post, Akron is now at RPI 53 so as a mid-major they can pretty much forget about an at-large bid. The MAC isn't a multi-bid league this year.

 

[Buffnik]

Bubble Watch action tonight:

#76 Florida State at Duke (5:00, ESPN)... FSU jumps into the mix with an upset.
#39 Providence at #44 Seton Hall (5:00, FS1)... Both will probably make it, but Seton Hall would get very bubbly with a loss. Should be a fun game to watch.
#40 UConn at USF (5:30, CBSSN)... USF has won a couple straight, both at home, over ECU and Memphis by comfortable margins. UConn favored by 14. Trap game that would be a disaster loss.
#74 UCLA at Cal (7:00, ESPN2)... Bruins need this one. If they get it, they're looking decent. Would need to follow it with a win at Stanford this weekend.

 

[Darth Snow]

Bubble Watch action tonight:

#76 Florida State at Duke (5:00, ESPN)... FSU jumps into the mix with an upset.
#39 Providence at #44 Seton Hall (5:00, FS1)... Both will probably make it, but Seton Hall would get very bubbly with a loss. Should be a fun game to watch.
#40 UConn at USF (5:30, CBSSN)... USF has won a couple straight, both at home, over ECU and Memphis by comfortable margins. UConn favored by 14. Trap game that would be a disaster loss.
#74 UCLA at Cal (7:00, ESPN2)... Bruins need this one. If they get it, they're looking decent. Would need to follow it with a win at Stanford this weekend.

for those of you holding out top 4 hopes, you want UCLA to win this one.