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Official 2016 Coaching Carousel Thread - How safe is Kevin Sumlin´s job?

SuperD said:
If that's the way they want to go then I I bet LSU would REALLY like someone else to hire Les this year and offset some of that buyout liability, but as Nik pointed 62 is getting up there for Les to start over at a new school.
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I'm actually confused by this notion. It's not like Miles would be going somewhere that would require 6-8 years to become competitive. Most people believe a new head coach should have even an awful program in a bowl game and competing for conference championships by year 3-4 of his tenure at said program. So the idea with Miles is that he doesn't have 4+ more years of coaching in him?
 
SuperD said:
If that's the way they want to go then I I bet LSU would REALLY like someone else to hire Les this year and offset some of that buyout liability, but as Nik pointed 62 is getting up there for Les to start over at a new school.
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Les isn't dumb.

If there is an offset (which is normal) then Les can simply take a much lower salary for the initial years and use the money to get the best assistants he can.

If LSU decides to do this it is going to cost them a lot of $$$$$. And as mentioned earlier history shows that odds are against the next guy doing better.

It is also very likely that if they fire him they are going to end up losing a lot of their class. A transistional class isn't going to help them win their division.
 
SuperD said:
If that's the way they want to go then I I bet LSU would REALLY like someone else to hire Les this year and offset some of that buyout liability, but as Nik pointed 62 is getting up there for Les to start over at a new school.
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There's been talk around Baton Rouge that he's close to retirement anyways. He's financially set even without that buyout. He's got two kids playing college sports, and 2 still in high school. He also lost his mom last year, and his sister died in a car wreck a few years ago, so there's speculation that he might be ready to just spend time with his family. I could see him beating LSU to the punch or at least come to a mutual agreement and just announcing his retirement.

The money involved here seems ridiculous for any AD though.
 
More importantly for CU, if Miles were to leave there are a few coaches from that staff that should be targeted:

DL Coach: Ed Orgeron
OL Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Jeff Grimes (yes, I want him back - make him ST Coordinator as a promotion)
RB Coach/Recruiting Coordinator: Frank Wilson
 
FWIW, Wilson is considered the best recruiter on that staff and is essentially royalty in New Orleans.
 
The reason Les Miles is under pressure is that LSU isn't as good as Saban's teams (at LSU or now at Alabama). Tough bar to measure up to.
 
buffaholic said:
The reason Les Miles is under pressure is that LSU isn't as good as Saban's teams (at LSU or now at Alabama). Tough bar to measure up to.
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Miles´ record at LSU compares very favorably to Saban´s.

110-31 v 48-16 overall record, 60-26 v 28-12 SEC record, 7 10-win seasons in 10 v 2 in 5 for Saban

Saban, however, won 2.5 SEC West titles, 2 SEC titles and a NC in 5 years, Miles has 3 division, 2 SEC and one national title in 10. And Miles is doing it in a tougher SEC.
 
Jens1893 said:
Miles´ record at LSU compares very favorably to Saban´s.

110-31 v 48-16 overall record, 60-26 v 28-12 SEC record, 7 10-win seasons in 10 v 2 in 5 for Saban

Saban, however, won 2.5 SEC West titles, 2 SEC titles and a NC in 5 years, Miles has 3 division, 2 SEC and one national title in 10. And Miles is doing it in a tougher SEC.
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Yeah, but Saban took over from the dumpster fire created by Gerry DiNardo. 4-7 (2-6) in 1998 followed by 2-8 (0-7) in 1999 when he was fired after 10 games.

You could also argue that the SEC has been down from top to bottom the past few years and that Miles' conference results have been declining in spite of that.
 
Duff Man said:
FWIW, Wilson is considered the best recruiter on that staff and is essentially royalty in New Orleans.
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And we are not getting Wilson out of that neck of the woods. The guy was born and raised in NOLA, played college in LA- he's basically never left. I don't see him as the guy who will be leaving the SEC footprint.
 
Buffnik said:
Yeah, but Saban took over from the dumpster fire created by Gerry DiNardo. 4-7 (2-6) in 1998 followed by 2-8 (0-7) in 1999 when he was fired after 10 games.

You could also argue that the SEC has been down from top to bottom the past few years and that Miles' conference results have been declining in spite of that.
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I think Duff is onto something with the Bama/LSU NCG.
 
I think you could make an interesting parallel between Bob Stoops/Mack Brown and Nick Saban/Les Miles. Sometimes being really successful is just not enough when a rival is even more successful.
 
Jens1893 said:
Miles´ record at LSU compares very favorably to Saban´s.
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Looking at that with context, (and focusing on conference records, which are more comparable year-to-year):
Year, conf record, coach, final poll results
1998 2-6 (DiNardo), UR
1999 0-7 (DiNardo), UR
2000 5-3 (Saban), 22
2001 5-3 (Saban), 7 (SEC Champion)
2002 5-3 (Saban), UR
2003 7-1 (Saban), 1 (National Champions)
2004 6-2 (Saban), 16

Miles is coming off 5-3, 4-4 and potentially 4-4 in the SEC.

I think if 4-4 happens, one can generally state that they've lost some momentum as compared to where they were 10 years ago.
 
And with that said, Les Miles is exactly the persona who could inject life into a down-trodden program and make them relevant quickly by attracting recruits based on past reputation. But would he have the desire to work that hard?
 
Duff Man said:
I think you could make an interesting parallel between Bob Stoops/Mack Brown and Nick Saban/Les Miles. Sometimes being really successful is just not enough when a rival is even more successful.
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Another reason it's nice to no longer have a rival. I could be happy being, you know, just successful, without looking over my shoulder.
 
TDbuff said:
There's been talk around Baton Rouge that he's close to retirement anyways. He's financially set even without that buyout. He's got two kids playing college sports, and 2 still in high school. He also lost his mom last year, and his sister died in a car wreck a few years ago, so there's speculation that he might be ready to just spend time with his family. I could see him beating LSU to the punch or at least come to a mutual agreement and just announcing his retirement.

The money involved here seems ridiculous for any AD though.
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Might be but Les and his agent can't help but be aware of the rumors. Why retire and give up millions when you can let the school fire you and collect a nice buyout.

If he doesn't want to be "fired" then they can negotiate a mutually agreeable exit.
 
Very surprised he jumped the gun like this. He was one of the top targets and probably could of had his choice of destinations/pay.
 
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