Tell us less.I don’t use a conventional model. My model rates every player, logs referee tendencies, and simulates game outcomes. I’ve expanded my NCAAF player pool since transfers are such a major iteration of the game. That’s why I find your characterization of the model as a Rube Goldberg machine to be… interesting.
Yeah, at some point he’s going to have to practice if he intends on playing against TCU.Today’s video had McCaskill as a non participant. That sucks
It's not just Neely. TO and Urban Meyer said it too. All three seemed to be extremely high on the starters.After listening to most of that DNVR pod, I guess I’ll wait and see on depth. When Neely is saying there are some areas with big drop offs from starter to back up, it’s likely true.
RB - They are doing well. Just non-contact. They can't be in the contact drills which are the scrimmages and practice sessions with tackling but they have impressed in drills.I am a big Kool-Aid drinker, and think we are going to surprise the national media with how well we do. That being said, there are some concerns coming based on the camp reports:
RB - all of the press is about Edwards, and then the next RB mentioned is Offerdahl. Not hearing anything about McCaskill or Smoke is concerning to me. I think Edwards will be one hell of a weapon, but I don't think he can survive a 12 game season as the featured back. I assume McCaskill is being brought along slowly, but I hoped he would be getting some contact and scrimmage time at this point. Never hearing Smoke brought up really concerns me.
LB - On the reports about the defense there is a lot written about the secondary and D-line. The lack of press about the LB's has me a bit nervous. The LB coach has really been the only one to talk about them during his press conference. The videos from DNVR and Adam don't spend much time on the LB's. Maybe they aren't an issue, but the definitely don't get brought up as a strength.
OL - O'Boyle indicated that if Brown was approved by the NCAA he would start. Without him it feels like we are down one starter out of the gate. We could have 8 OL on board with all 5 starters, but instead we are at 7 with 4 starters. That feels like the potential difference between an upright SS, and a QB scrambling first.
DL - After Cokes and Bishop there seems to be a void. Am hopeful McNeill and Payne provide something, but it sounds like there is a huge difference between the 1's and 2's. I have been hopeful that Main is a 3rd down pass rushing force, but his name hasn't been coming up in any press reports either.
TE - honestly are we even going to put a TE out there? Seems like the two top guys working back from injury, and may not be ready for weeks.
WR/CB/S/QB #1 all seem to be in a good place right now.
Did your model predict TCU's success last year?I don’t use a conventional model. My model rates every player, logs referee tendencies, and simulates game outcomes. I’ve expanded my NCAAF player pool since transfers are such a major iteration of the game. That’s why I find your characterization of the model as a Rube Goldberg machine to be… interesting.
My model was very high on TCU last season, yes.Did your model predict TCU's success last year?
Or any back up CU ends up facing after causing a season ending injury to their starter.Yet Ohio State can somehow trot out a third string quarterback on any given day who will throw for 400 yards against elite competition.
Maaaayyybe they are purposely holding out mccaskill and smoke vids as to not give opposing coaches anything. That’s what I’m hoping.Not everyone is gonna get brought up during camp. That's just silly to think that because a guy hadn't been mentioned that he must not be any good. As for McCaskill and Smoke...go look at DNVR's projected depth chart. They've seen practices and talked to coaches, and they have those two as first and second string.
Give us your top 25 via predictions from your model and your PAC standing predictions from your modelMy model was very high on TCU last season, yes.
Why would he share his working model for free on a public website full of a bunch of guys who would take the results directly to the sports book?Give us your top 25 via predictions from your model and your PAC standing predictions from your model
Good points.I'm pretty good with our C2 and CB3. I wouldn't have them on the list, especially CB3 (C2 gets a bit more challenging if Brown isn't cleared since our C2 could start at OG). My biggest concern with depth outside of QB is at ILB. Also, it's not TE depth I'm concerned about - I think it's fine - but I don't think we have a 3-down starter in the mix.
What!?!?! For free? You are a good poster. Not that one.Give us your top 25 via predictions from your model and your PAC standing predictions from your model
Maaaayyybe they are purposely holding out mccaskill and smoke vids as to not give opposing coaches anything. That’s what I’m hoping.
Be patient. Manhattan occasionally throws us some crumbs. When he does, go make the bet immediately and come back after the game to thank him.Give us your top 25 via predictions from your model and your PAC standing predictions from your model
It was a joke!I don’t use a conventional model. My model rates every player, logs referee tendencies, and simulates game outcomes. I’ve expanded my NCAAF player pool since transfers are such a major iteration of the game. That’s why I find your characterization of the model as a Rube Goldberg machine to be… interesting.
All models are wrong, some models are useful.If models are so worthless/controversial, why do Vegas and pro gamblers use them
so much?
Allmodelsassumptions are wrong, some models are useful.
OL depth is a valid concern. We'll be fine at DL. The position to watch/be concerned about is LB.According to my model, 3 wins is what this team can expect assuming Shedeur plays 12 games. Beyond that, injury to key players in other positions and ball bounces determine if the team can win 4+. The team has very poor DL and OL depth. We barely have enough players to have a normal rotation on the DL. We have major questions about stopping the short/intermediate pass game when not in nickle or dime defenses. This will be exploited by our opponents.
My model strongly disfavors teams who play opponents who have a strong QB and/or a strong running game and/or run defense.
We would have some bumps, but would be okay with Staub. Trust. \I wouldn't argue with that.
This is not even a rebuild of a program, it is essentially starting from scratch.
Prime and his staff have done an amazing job of finding and bringing in talent across the board but there are a number of positions where it appears to be a significant drop off from the starter or top of the rotation and the depth.
QB is maybe the toughest position to find guys. Fortunately Prime had a connection with a good one but a proven back-up wasn't something he found.
As it stands though is our back up situation any worse than our starters would have been had Dorrell been here another year.
At no point have I said that we shouldn't be concerned about what we have if Shedeur misses some time, only that most college programs don't have a second QB who inspires much confidence.