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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Utah downs USC 80-69
Utah is rolling and Poetl is locking himself in as a lottery draft pick. It's likely Utah will be ranked when we play them in Salt Lake City in two weeks. If the Buffs pick up a win against either Arizona or Utah, I think they are in the tournament. If they drop both of those games they will need to beat Arizona St. and will probably need at least another victory in the PAC-12 tourney to feel good about themselves on Selection Sunday.
HawaiiBUFF
Well-Known Member
Does anyone else have the same concern as me right now about making the Dance? I know that we still have a solid resume, but these next too games scare me. I absolutely think they are must wins!
seattlebuff
Well-Known Member
Um, yeah, if you don't have concern, you're not paying attention. I think it basically comes downs to: Buffs have to beat ASU and win one in Vegas. Then I think we're in ... barely. We'd still have an RPI under 50. But its hardly a given. ASU has always had our number, and we're a god awful road team. 0-4 and NIT is a very real possibility.
OsideBuff
Dimwitted ****
I would agree....this team is out of synch. I could easity see them losing all four....and getting pistol whipped by Utah in Utah. We are going to have to play ASU or Stanford again....in the P12 tourney...teams that are improving (except the AZ debacle for ASU).... Wonder what this team will be like without Scott next year....cuz Fortune is sporadic....as is GK. Bryce Peters better be phenom. not sure what it is about Tad's teams...but they are not fundamentally sound....and do not seem to get better as the season progresses.
People need to stop worrying about next year. The team will be fine. They will operate differently on offense and will feature a different player. Just like what has happened we have lost stars before.
I think that people forget about Derrick White and the kind of player he could be. Our guard play SHOULD be much improved next year because of White and Peters. Add in Wes as the main option down low and Miller with another year of experience and maturity.
We will be different, but we will be the fine.
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
I actually would guess that CU would not make the Tourney if they only beat ASU and win one in conference. I would expect a very similar scenario as Tad's first year where they expect to, but aren't selected. CU needs three wins, to guarantee a spot in and to be perfectly frank, I don't see them. Arizona and Utah are hitting their strides...ASU is a game CU should win at home. In the tournament, well, maybe (and that is a big maybe) one win....but two? Nope, not going to happen. NIT here we come.
Since the change in format in 2005, only 5 teams with an RPI under 40 have missed the dance from what I can find
#21 Missouri St.
#29 CSU
#30 Hofstra
#30 AFA
#40 Cincinnati, which is the only one to miss from the historical big 6 (Big East, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC, Pac-12)
Given the history, it would shock me, if CU was able to maintain an RPI lower than 40, to see the Buffs miss the dance. Obviously go 0-4 over the next few weeks (including Vegas) and there is huge reason for concern. 1-3 is probably ok, but uncomfortable on Selection Sunday. 2 more wins and we are fine.
#21 Missouri St.
#29 CSU
#30 Hofstra
#30 AFA
#40 Cincinnati, which is the only one to miss from the historical big 6 (Big East, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC, Pac-12)
Given the history, it would shock me, if CU was able to maintain an RPI lower than 40, to see the Buffs miss the dance. Obviously go 0-4 over the next few weeks (including Vegas) and there is huge reason for concern. 1-3 is probably ok, but uncomfortable on Selection Sunday. 2 more wins and we are fine.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
I get the impression the tone is more hopeful than worried.
That's right. No one from the Power 6 conferences on that list, either.
I ran a couple of scenarios and this would be our predicted RPI rank before the conference tourney:
win 0 : rpi would drop to 63 and you can say goodbye tournament (unless we make a huge run or win the conference tournament)
Win 1:
Arizona/ASU: rpi would be about 49, but Arizona would be much better for the resume
Utah: rpi would be 54
win 2: either way our rpi would be about 32, not matter which two of the 3 games that we won, so a home sweep woudl be huge for us.
win 3: rpi shoots up to 27.
So our most likely outcome has us going 1-2 over the next 3 with our only win versus ASU. That puts us at a 7 seed thanks to Utah beating UCLA. That would give us ASU in the conference tournament.
Now if we lose that game our RPI would be 60 and on the wrong side of the bubble, win that game and our RPI is 41 and we are in. The absolute best thing we can do is show up the keg and scream our faces off and walk out with two more home wins this season and then enjoy another year of making the dance.
win 0 : rpi would drop to 63 and you can say goodbye tournament (unless we make a huge run or win the conference tournament)
Win 1:
Arizona/ASU: rpi would be about 49, but Arizona would be much better for the resume
Utah: rpi would be 54
win 2: either way our rpi would be about 32, not matter which two of the 3 games that we won, so a home sweep woudl be huge for us.
win 3: rpi shoots up to 27.
So our most likely outcome has us going 1-2 over the next 3 with our only win versus ASU. That puts us at a 7 seed thanks to Utah beating UCLA. That would give us ASU in the conference tournament.
Now if we lose that game our RPI would be 60 and on the wrong side of the bubble, win that game and our RPI is 41 and we are in. The absolute best thing we can do is show up the keg and scream our faces off and walk out with two more home wins this season and then enjoy another year of making the dance.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Just to add to tante's post, Live RPI sees us finishing 1-2 with a win over ASU and entering the Pac Tournament with an RPI at 45 or 46. To me, in that scenario a win in Vegas is the difference between getting in or not, especially as that win would likely be a decent neutral court win over a top 100 opponent (we wont be facing Wazzu if we're 9-9).
Updated OP with most recent RPIs, Records and Ranks.
Monday, 2/22, games we care about:
Hampton (15-9) at Delaware State (7-20)... 5:30... need Hampton to keep winning & take the conference
#17 Iowa State (19-8) at #14 West Virginia (20-7)... 7:00, ESPN... absolutely huge game for the Clones
Nicholls (7-20) at Northwestern State (7-17)... 7:00... a winnable game
Monday, 2/22, games we care about:
Hampton (15-9) at Delaware State (7-20)... 5:30... need Hampton to keep winning & take the conference
#17 Iowa State (19-8) at #14 West Virginia (20-7)... 7:00, ESPN... absolutely huge game for the Clones
Nicholls (7-20) at Northwestern State (7-17)... 7:00... a winnable game
BlackNGold
Club Member
Things you have to worry about - if we move from a solid in to a bubble team.
- Selection committee looks at how you finish the season -up trending versus down trending. CU is down trending at the moment.
- Upsets in conference tournaments eliminating spots. Say UCLA wins the PAC 12 tourney- that takes a slot by a team that was not suppose to be in the Tournament.
Here's the process of how the Committee selects the teams:
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-bracket-how-68-teams-are-selected-division-i
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball...-bracket-how-68-teams-are-selected-division-i
I dislike this, because it is incredibly plausible. That team is so weird. They could also win their first two games of the conference tourney by 25 points each, and then get blown out by 25 in their next game.
Wednesday, 2/24 games we care about:
#9 Arizona (22-5) at Colorado (19-9)... 7:00, ESPN2... Zona comes in at RPI 25, Buffs at RPI 34. Arizona is tied for 1st in the Pac-12 at 10-4, while the Buffs are tied for 6th at 8-7. UA is favored by 5.5 in this one. This game is absolutely HUGE for CU. Win and the follow-up home game against ASU would be to secure an NCAAT berth with good seeding along with the possibility of a 1st round bye in the Pac-12 tourney. Lose and everyone gets very nervous about the post-season.
Georgia (14-11) at Auburn (10-16... 5:00... Auburn's lost 8 of its last 9, but won at Arkansas a couple games ago. Dawgs favored by 4.5. There's a chance for this one and Auburn (and CU) need it. Auburn is currently RPI 146. We need that CU result to be a Top 150 road win for the resume.
Washington State (9-18) at #13 Oregon (21-6)... 8:00, PACN... Oregon favored by 19 and can get close to a Pac-12 regular season title tonight (owning the tiebreaker with its win at Arizona).
Air Force (14-14) at Fresno State (18-9)... 8:00... Fresno is favored by 11 and it would be a significant upset for AFA. But the Zoomies have won their last 2 (home games vs UNLV and New Mexico) after losing its last road game at SDSU by single digits. RPI 199 at RPI 94, so would be a huge bump with 2 winnable games (Utah State & @CSU) to finish the regular season. Opportunity.
Washington (16-11) at Oregon State (15-10)... 9:00, ESPNU... OSU favored by 4 in what might be a Bubble elimination game. Got to like OSU's tourney chances better. RPI 33 (Washington 71). Washington is tied with the Buffs in the Pac-12 at 8-7 while OSU is 6-8. Reasons to cheer for both teams. OSU win helps CU a lot in the Pac-12 standings. But a UW win pushes the CU games with them (1-1) close to being Top 50 games. I'm going OSU and banking on PACT seeding with UW holding on as a Top 100 on Selection Sunday.
#9 Arizona (22-5) at Colorado (19-9)... 7:00, ESPN2... Zona comes in at RPI 25, Buffs at RPI 34. Arizona is tied for 1st in the Pac-12 at 10-4, while the Buffs are tied for 6th at 8-7. UA is favored by 5.5 in this one. This game is absolutely HUGE for CU. Win and the follow-up home game against ASU would be to secure an NCAAT berth with good seeding along with the possibility of a 1st round bye in the Pac-12 tourney. Lose and everyone gets very nervous about the post-season.
Georgia (14-11) at Auburn (10-16... 5:00... Auburn's lost 8 of its last 9, but won at Arkansas a couple games ago. Dawgs favored by 4.5. There's a chance for this one and Auburn (and CU) need it. Auburn is currently RPI 146. We need that CU result to be a Top 150 road win for the resume.
Washington State (9-18) at #13 Oregon (21-6)... 8:00, PACN... Oregon favored by 19 and can get close to a Pac-12 regular season title tonight (owning the tiebreaker with its win at Arizona).
Air Force (14-14) at Fresno State (18-9)... 8:00... Fresno is favored by 11 and it would be a significant upset for AFA. But the Zoomies have won their last 2 (home games vs UNLV and New Mexico) after losing its last road game at SDSU by single digits. RPI 199 at RPI 94, so would be a huge bump with 2 winnable games (Utah State & @CSU) to finish the regular season. Opportunity.
Washington (16-11) at Oregon State (15-10)... 9:00, ESPNU... OSU favored by 4 in what might be a Bubble elimination game. Got to like OSU's tourney chances better. RPI 33 (Washington 71). Washington is tied with the Buffs in the Pac-12 at 8-7 while OSU is 6-8. Reasons to cheer for both teams. OSU win helps CU a lot in the Pac-12 standings. But a UW win pushes the CU games with them (1-1) close to being Top 50 games. I'm going OSU and banking on PACT seeding with UW holding on as a Top 100 on Selection Sunday.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Auburn knocked off Georgia. Shame Auburn couldn't have played like this throughout the season instead of taking 5 weeks off. These guys are better than 11-16
Thursday, 2/25 games we care about:
#24 SMU (22-4) at Memphis (15-12)... 5:00, ESPN2... SMU, favored by 4.5, can help boost that CU RPI & SOS in this one. Tough place to win a game.
Nebraska (14-14) at Penn State (14-14)... 5:00, ESPNU... PSU is favored by 1. Coming into this one at RPI 105, this is the one the Nittany Lions need to have to get into the Top 100 for us. After this, they're at Michigan State and then finish with Northwestern and Illinois at home. Great opportunity for them in the next 2 weeks.
Oral Roberts (14-14) at Omaha (17-12)... 6:00... Omaha favored by 6. They come in at RPI 135. Final regular season game and a win should position them as the 3 seed in the Summit tourney and a great chance to keep that Top 150 RPI.
Sacramento State (11-14) at Northern Colorado (8-18)... 7:00... UNCo is favored by 1, so we've got a rare opportunity for them to get a win. Every little bit helps.
UCLA (15-12) at Cal (19-8)... 7:00, ESPN2... Technically, a Cal win is better for the Buffs on RPI since we played them twice. But with a #20 RPI, Cal can afford the loss and UCLA moving up from RPI 74 would be good for us. Besides, a UCLA win pulls the Buffs within a half game of Cal in the conference standings. Go UCLA!
Arizona State (14-13) at #22 Utah (21-7)... 7:00, PACN... Utah remains CU's only home loss this season. May as well see them as strong as possible (current RPI 9). ASU is RPI 81, so it would be nice if they could stay Top 100. Losing at Utah won't hurt them, though. And we need the Sun Devils demoralized heading into the weekend game at CU. Utes favored by 10.5.
Portland (12-17) at BYU (21-8)... 9:00, ESPNU... BYU favored by 17 and we want them to take care of business. BYU is currently RPI 68 and has an outside chance of finishing Top 50, especially with a home game against Gonzaga on Saturday. Portland is RPI 251 and there's nothing they can do to help our resume at this point.
USC (19-8) at Stanford (13-12)... 9:00, PACN... USC is favored by 1.5, so this is expected to be close. Stanford can help CU a lot by beating USC, which would fall a half game behind the Buffs in the Pac-12 with a loss and looking at Cal over the weekend. On RPI, USC is #32 and will stay Top 50 if they lose on the road while Furd has slipped to #72. I doubt they'll get back to Top 50, but staying Top 100 is essential.
#24 SMU (22-4) at Memphis (15-12)... 5:00, ESPN2... SMU, favored by 4.5, can help boost that CU RPI & SOS in this one. Tough place to win a game.
Nebraska (14-14) at Penn State (14-14)... 5:00, ESPNU... PSU is favored by 1. Coming into this one at RPI 105, this is the one the Nittany Lions need to have to get into the Top 100 for us. After this, they're at Michigan State and then finish with Northwestern and Illinois at home. Great opportunity for them in the next 2 weeks.
Oral Roberts (14-14) at Omaha (17-12)... 6:00... Omaha favored by 6. They come in at RPI 135. Final regular season game and a win should position them as the 3 seed in the Summit tourney and a great chance to keep that Top 150 RPI.
Sacramento State (11-14) at Northern Colorado (8-18)... 7:00... UNCo is favored by 1, so we've got a rare opportunity for them to get a win. Every little bit helps.
UCLA (15-12) at Cal (19-8)... 7:00, ESPN2... Technically, a Cal win is better for the Buffs on RPI since we played them twice. But with a #20 RPI, Cal can afford the loss and UCLA moving up from RPI 74 would be good for us. Besides, a UCLA win pulls the Buffs within a half game of Cal in the conference standings. Go UCLA!
Arizona State (14-13) at #22 Utah (21-7)... 7:00, PACN... Utah remains CU's only home loss this season. May as well see them as strong as possible (current RPI 9). ASU is RPI 81, so it would be nice if they could stay Top 100. Losing at Utah won't hurt them, though. And we need the Sun Devils demoralized heading into the weekend game at CU. Utes favored by 10.5.
Portland (12-17) at BYU (21-8)... 9:00, ESPNU... BYU favored by 17 and we want them to take care of business. BYU is currently RPI 68 and has an outside chance of finishing Top 50, especially with a home game against Gonzaga on Saturday. Portland is RPI 251 and there's nothing they can do to help our resume at this point.
USC (19-8) at Stanford (13-12)... 9:00, PACN... USC is favored by 1.5, so this is expected to be close. Stanford can help CU a lot by beating USC, which would fall a half game behind the Buffs in the Pac-12 with a loss and looking at Cal over the weekend. On RPI, USC is #32 and will stay Top 50 if they lose on the road while Furd has slipped to #72. I doubt they'll get back to Top 50, but staying Top 100 is essential.
Argh... AFA blew it against Fresno again last night. the Zoomies lost 2 games against FSU by a combined two points, and in both instances they had the ball last. Have to wonder if they could have added another Top 150 win to CU's resume if those two results were different.
Also, raise your hand if you had Omaha as a top 150 OOC win for the Buffs and not the Rammies.
Also, raise your hand if you had Omaha as a top 150 OOC win for the Buffs and not the Rammies.
