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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
the question is...will they accept an NIT bid?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
BYU falls at home to Gonzaga, 71-68. Cougars will be the 3 seed in the WCC Tournament
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
They should accept if they know what's good for them
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Sunday:
Buffs 20-9 (9-7) vs Arizona State 14-14 (4-11): The win over Arizona was obviously huge. If CU isn't already in, they're damn close. This is not a strong bubble. A home loss to ASU would certainly take away much of the goodwill built up by beating Arizona, though. ASU has dropped 3 in a row. They showed some flashes OOC (such as beating Texas A&M by 13) and have had an occasional nice performance in conference play (beat USC, killed OSU). However, they've just never been able to show any consistency. They suffered a poor start to Pac play and could never get going. Still, I don't think ASU is completely incapable of springing a late season surprise. It really depends on the mindsets. Is ASU ready to pack it in? Will CU be hungover? A win here gives CU a solid chance of claiming the 5 seed for the P12T. Another top 100 win for the resume should put CU in the field: a 21 win squad with a winning Pac record isn't being left out. Buffs favored by 6.5
Penn State 15-13 (6-9) @ #6 Michigan State 23-5 (10-5): PSU sits at 103. A loss in East Lansing shouldn't drop PSU much, if at all. After this it's Northwestern and Illinois both visiting State College. PSU has a chance at finishing the regular season 17-14 (8-10) and inside the top 100. At worst, they'll finish 16-15 (7-11). This may well be an unexpected extra top 100 win for the resume. MSU favored by 17.5
Colorado State 15-13 (7-8) @ Nevada 17-10 (9-6): Same deal for the Rams since Clavell went down: middle of the pack in a bad MWC. Their RPI has been nearly stagnant for weeks, currently 192. CSU is looking about being ~ a 7 seed in the MWC Tournament unless they finish strong in these final 3. Nevada favored by 3.5
Washington State 9-19 (1-15) @ Oregon State 14-10 (7-8): Lunardi's latest brief update after Saturday's games has Oregon State as his second team OUT. The Beav RPI is in solid shape at 30. After this they visit the LA schools. They're going to need a win down there to keep pace. They've had a great deal of fortune this year: various horrendous refereeing has handed them 3 home victories (Utah, CU, Washington). Beavs favored by 11.5
USC 19-9 (8-7) @ Cal 20-8 (10-5): Two teams on different trajectories. USC is stumbling towards the finish line, while Cal is playing their best ball of the season. Cal is in very good shape for a top 4 bye (likely as the 3 or 4 seed) despite having to visit Tucson next. USC is fighting with CU to determine who will be 5 and 6. USC is still in good shape to make the Dance, but what had looked like a 6 seed a week or two ago is now looking more like a 9. Cal favored by 7
Washington 16-12 (8-8) @ #13 Oregon 22-6 (11-4): Washington saved its typical collapse for later in the season, but it happened. The Huskies were 5-1 and atop the Pac, 7-3 and in great shape, and have now lost 5/6 to fall to 8-8 and out of NCAA Tournament consideration. Huskies are looking like anything from a 7-9 seed in the P12T. Meanwhile, Oregon's Pac12 regular season title hopes are now getting a strong challenge from Utah. Ducks favored by 10
Buffs 20-9 (9-7) vs Arizona State 14-14 (4-11): The win over Arizona was obviously huge. If CU isn't already in, they're damn close. This is not a strong bubble. A home loss to ASU would certainly take away much of the goodwill built up by beating Arizona, though. ASU has dropped 3 in a row. They showed some flashes OOC (such as beating Texas A&M by 13) and have had an occasional nice performance in conference play (beat USC, killed OSU). However, they've just never been able to show any consistency. They suffered a poor start to Pac play and could never get going. Still, I don't think ASU is completely incapable of springing a late season surprise. It really depends on the mindsets. Is ASU ready to pack it in? Will CU be hungover? A win here gives CU a solid chance of claiming the 5 seed for the P12T. Another top 100 win for the resume should put CU in the field: a 21 win squad with a winning Pac record isn't being left out. Buffs favored by 6.5
Penn State 15-13 (6-9) @ #6 Michigan State 23-5 (10-5): PSU sits at 103. A loss in East Lansing shouldn't drop PSU much, if at all. After this it's Northwestern and Illinois both visiting State College. PSU has a chance at finishing the regular season 17-14 (8-10) and inside the top 100. At worst, they'll finish 16-15 (7-11). This may well be an unexpected extra top 100 win for the resume. MSU favored by 17.5
Colorado State 15-13 (7-8) @ Nevada 17-10 (9-6): Same deal for the Rams since Clavell went down: middle of the pack in a bad MWC. Their RPI has been nearly stagnant for weeks, currently 192. CSU is looking about being ~ a 7 seed in the MWC Tournament unless they finish strong in these final 3. Nevada favored by 3.5
Washington State 9-19 (1-15) @ Oregon State 14-10 (7-8): Lunardi's latest brief update after Saturday's games has Oregon State as his second team OUT. The Beav RPI is in solid shape at 30. After this they visit the LA schools. They're going to need a win down there to keep pace. They've had a great deal of fortune this year: various horrendous refereeing has handed them 3 home victories (Utah, CU, Washington). Beavs favored by 11.5
USC 19-9 (8-7) @ Cal 20-8 (10-5): Two teams on different trajectories. USC is stumbling towards the finish line, while Cal is playing their best ball of the season. Cal is in very good shape for a top 4 bye (likely as the 3 or 4 seed) despite having to visit Tucson next. USC is fighting with CU to determine who will be 5 and 6. USC is still in good shape to make the Dance, but what had looked like a 6 seed a week or two ago is now looking more like a 9. Cal favored by 7
Washington 16-12 (8-8) @ #13 Oregon 22-6 (11-4): Washington saved its typical collapse for later in the season, but it happened. The Huskies were 5-1 and atop the Pac, 7-3 and in great shape, and have now lost 5/6 to fall to 8-8 and out of NCAA Tournament consideration. Huskies are looking like anything from a 7-9 seed in the P12T. Meanwhile, Oregon's Pac12 regular season title hopes are now getting a strong challenge from Utah. Ducks favored by 10
OUBuff
American
They're fortunate actually.
UCLA needs some post-season practices. I love their 2016-17 roster and will likely be picking them for the Pac-12 title... maybe a Final Four run. Lots of firepower expected to return and a crazy good recruiting class coming in.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
PSU is going to move into the top 100 (from 103 to 99) despite their loss at Michigan State today. With Northwestern and Illinois visiting State College, we've got a great shot at having an unexpected extra top 100 win on the resume
Neutral site, too. Would be great if they can take care of business at home, where they've been pretty damn strong.
My opinion on how good UCLA will be next year is dependent on Bryce Alford's usage rate. Don't get me wrong Alford is an okay player but I think he his better suited to a role where he is the third or fourth option on the team. If Lonzo Ball can start from day one and take the ball handling responsibilities from Alford then they will compete for the PAC-12 title.
Okay ... I need my marching orders from the experts here as to who I should be rooting for/against in today's other Pac 12 games. Cal or USC? UDub or the Dux? Does the WSU @ OSU game have any relevance for us?
CVille? Nik? Goose? (sorry if I omitted someone I shouldn't have ... but the great thing about the AB BB board is its embarrassment of CBB knowledge riches, and is much appreciated).
CVille? Nik? Goose? (sorry if I omitted someone I shouldn't have ... but the great thing about the AB BB board is its embarrassment of CBB knowledge riches, and is much appreciated).
We played Cal twice, so they help our RPI more if they win. Also would move USC to 8-8 in conference play, making it hard for them to catch CU (they've got the tiebreaker on us). I'm rooting for Cal.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
We want USC to lose, IMO. Don't see us catching Cal, so let's beat out USC and get the 5 seed. USC is 8-7 and hosts the Oregon schools. Cal is 10-5 and visits the desert.
Oregon. Ducks are in a battle with Utah for the 1 seed. Washington plays Wazzu after this I believe, so an upset here would likely mean UW would finish tied at 10-8 with us, which we don't want (unless we're somehow guaranteed the tiebreaker over them and I'm not aware).
OSU could also still finish 10-8 if they win out. It's unlikely since they visit LA next week, though.
Buffs currently 28th in Live RPI
I just saw something interesting: RPI Forecast expects us to finish 33rd, but every team behind us they also expect to finish with a number worse than that. I guess that means we would stay at 28/29?
http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html
I just saw something interesting: RPI Forecast expects us to finish 33rd, but every team behind us they also expect to finish with a number worse than that. I guess that means we would stay at 28/29?
http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html
Okay ... so between you and Nik it's Cal, Oregon (gawd I hate that) and Wazzu? Got it.
Although after seeing GPII's dad react to his son's wearing of his old number on Senior Day (talk about your dusty moments) ... kinda hard to root against OSU. Looks like it won't be an issue though ... Beavs up by 10 at the half.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yep, as much as I'd love a bye, it's highly unlikely after our shenanigans at USC. Let's just hope we get the 5 and face Wazzu instead of getting caught in a logjam and find ourselves facing ASU or even UCLA.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I saw that 32-33 number as well. As long as we don't lose to Wazzu we should be safe to finish mid-30s. 0-2 with a loss to ASU wouldn't be wise move either, but we'd still likely be safe in the end
Those schools hate each other. Makes it fun.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Cal putting a beatdown on USC, 54-36. Trojans will fall to 8-8 with the Oregon schools visiting. Have to think the Ducks can beat them and give us the 5 seed
No ****. Now a 25 point lead with about 2 to go. Cal is playing scary good now. Hope we can avoid them in the conference tourney.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
We're headed right for Cal or Arizona in the Quarterfinals, unfortunately
I'd take the ********** right now. Be nice to beat them twice in the same year ... and I'm thinking it's a better matchup for us.
EDIT: And good to see that our pet name for our esteemed conference rivals from the desert now passes muster. Kudos to the mods.