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Official Buffs Dance Resume Thread

Buffs enter today at RPI 28. It looks like there could be a lot of movement around that spot tonight.

St. Joseph's (RPI 26) at St. Bonaventure (RPI 35). STB up 41-28 at half.
#7 Miami at Notre Dame (RPI 34). ND trails by double digits with 13 minutes left in the 2nd.
Texas Tech (25) at #10 West Virginia. WVU leads by 20 with 16 minutes left in the 2nd.

Seton Hall (32) at Butler tips at 6:30. Tough spot.
Wisconsin (31) at Minnesota tips off at 7pm. Badgers favored by 10, but tough one since the Gophers hate them.

#9 Oregon at UCLA will affect CU's RPI a bit. Played UO twice and the Bruins once.
Oregon State at USC. Played OSU twice.
Washington State at Washington. UW loss could be a problem for them in terms of staying in Top 100.
CSU at Fresno State. A road win here would lock CSU into the Top 200 (meh).
 
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Notre Dame lost by 18. No shame in Miami getting on a roll against you, but it does drop the Irish to RPI 35. More importantly, most bracketologists had ND 1 seed line ahead of CU today. This could help.
 
Seton Hall lost. Dropped a couple spots to 34.

Oregon won at UCLA. Ducks now RPI 3. Bruins weren't hurt much by a home loss (84).
 
Wisconsin won at Minnesota. But with Minn coming in at RPI 240, that actually dropped the Badgers from 31 to 33.
 
Buffnik said:
Wisconsin won at Minnesota. But with Minn coming in at RPI 240, that actually dropped the Badgers from 31 to 33.
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All the more reason we want the 4 or 6 seed in Vegas, as Wazzou is at 204 currently.
 
Scotch said:
All the more reason we want the 4 or 6 seed in Vegas, as Wazzou is at 204 currently.
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Let say we lose at Utah, our RPI will be around 31 entering the dance
If we lose to Wazzou, our RPI drops to 45, which is still in, but more like a 10 seed or so
If we beat Wazzou, our RPI stays at 31 and then we get to play a higher seed

All we need to do is beat Wazzou. And if you are thinking that ASU is a huge bump a win puts us at 29 and a loss get us to 41. Not a huge difference for the risk.
 
Lunardi has CU as an 8 seed against 9 Seed Syracuse, with the pleasure of playing KU in the following round. No thank you.

#3 Oregon
#3 Utah
#5 California
#6 UofA
#8 Colorado
#8 USC
#11 Oregon St
 
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Bracket updates (Sunday)

CBS: 7 CU vs Syracuse (Xavier 2 seed)

ESPN: 8 CU vs Syracuse (Kansas 1 seed)

Really a shame. All we had to do was hold a 14 point lead in the final minutes and we'd have been clear of the 8-9 line and be dreaming of a 6.

As for Syracuse as a potential opponent, I don't believe they're a 9 seed at the moment at 19-12 (9-9) RPI 61 playing in the ACC 8-9 game.
 
Lunardi and Palm still projecting the same with their ladies updates

Palm: 7 CU vs Syracuse. Xavier the 2

Lunardi: 8 CU vs Syracuse. Kansas the 1

Cuse is sitting 19-12 with an RPI of 61. They have a crucial game against Pitt in the ACCT. Hard for me to see Cuse as a 9 unless they win a couple in the ACCT.
 
http://131sports.com/

Pac-12 seed projections:

Oregon - final 2 seed
Utah - 2nd 3 seed
Arizona - 2nd 5 seed
Cal - 1st 6 seed
CU - 1st 8 seed
USC - 2nd 8 seed
OSU - 3rd 9 seed

No other conference teams on the 1st 4 out/ Next 4 out bubble. For any Pac-12 team after those 7, it would very likely take winning the P12T to get into the Dance.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Lunardi and Palm still projecting the same with their ladies updates

Palm: 7 CU vs Syracuse. Xavier the 2

Lunardi: 8 CU vs Syracuse. Kansas the 1

Cuse is sitting 19-12 with an RPI of 61. They have a crucial game against Pitt in the ACCT. Hard for me to see Cuse as a 9 unless they win a couple in the ACCT.
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Is the seeding formula standard enough that the opponents can be picked for 2 rounds with reasonable accuracy? Doesn't make sense to me.
 
Buffnik said:
http://131sports.com/

Pac-12 seed projections:

Oregon - final 2 seed
Utah - 2nd 3 seed
Arizona - 2nd 5 seed
Cal - 1st 6 seed
CU - 1st 8 seed
USC - 2nd 8 seed
OSU - 3rd 9 seed

No other conference teams on the 1st 4 out/ Next 4 out bubble. For any Pac-12 team after those 7, it would very likely take winning the P12T to get into the Dance.
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UCLA could do it. About the only one of the other 5 that I could see making that kind of run.
 
aghcsm said:
Is the seeding formula standard enough that the opponents can be picked for 2 rounds with reasonable accuracy? Doesn't make sense to me.
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It's really all in fun, although there is generally a good idea of who will be the top seeds...it's once you get beyond the top 4 seeds or so that it becomes a crapshoot.
 
scoob said:
Thanks for asking, @Goose. Still a little nervous.

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But he has teams like Gonzaga/St Mary's and San Diego St comfortably in. I know advanced metrics don't like the Buffs, but that's just stupid. Please tell me what their good road wins or non conference wins are? STDSU has Cal... which we have too. But they lost to my pitiful Toreros.
 
torerobuff said:
But he has teams like Gonzaga/St Mary's and San Diego St comfortably in. I know advanced metrics don't like the Buffs, but that's just stupid. Please tell me what their good road wins or non conference wins are? STDSU has Cal... which we have too. But they lost to my pitiful Toreros.
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I'm with ya. My skittishness is that he's a very sharp guy AND he did go 68/68 last season. Something neither Palm or Lunardi did.
 
I love NROPP and I think he's wrong but I'm still not in the "we're a lock" boat. I blame 2011 for being skittish but he has a legit point.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
Has there ever been a power conference team with a sub 30 RPI that got left out? Ever?
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I'm sure there were before the committee started incorporating it into their selections. It seems that they have been moving further away from RPI and more into the kenpom type grading systems over the past few years. RPI is our best friend this season. I fear that they move even further into the other metrics that are not so kind to CU this year. I still believe we are a tourney team, but still a little nervous.
 
I don't get the St. Mary's love from nropp.

Horrible SOS, no wins vs RPI top 50, and their best road win is @Gonzaga, (RPI 65), and two RPI 100-150 losses.

We have a road win @Stanford (RPI 73), no RPI 100+ losses, and 4 wins vs RPI top 50.

Also, nropp just protected his tweets for some reason.
 
Bone Buff said:
I don't get the St. Mary's love from nropp.

Horrible SOS, no wins vs RPI top 50, and their best road win is @Gonzaga, (RPI 65), and two RPI 100-150 losses.

We have a road win @Stanford (RPI 73), no RPI 100+ losses, and 4 wins vs RPI top 50.

Also, nropp just protected his tweets for some reason.
Click to expand...

perhaps @Goose made him take another look...
 
Bone Buff said:
I don't get the St. Mary's love from nropp.
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I've come around on St. Mary's since I posted yesterday. I was assuming they were something like 22-9 or something. They are 27-4. That's a gaudy record, even though it lacks heft. You gotta be pretty damn good to win 27 games.
 
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