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Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

Buffnik said:
I'm very worried about the precedent today set.

With a 12-team playoff, I see them justifying that the Big 12 is a 1-bid league going forward. A scenario where, for example, CU goes 12-1 with a championship game loss and 2-loss teams from the B1G and SEC get picked over them even if those schools didn't beat anyone in their non-conference schedules.
Click to expand...

This helps CU, as long as Prime is the coach. Ratings and $ are what matters the most.
 
Wasn’t there another case like this a few years ago where a team got punished for its QB being injured? And didn’t Alabama back door its way in before? It sounds familiar but I don’t know when it happened.
 
Corey Trevorson said:
The people saying it's subjective are the ones ignoring the quantative part of it
Click to expand...
Quantitatively Bama is better by some measures than FSU, and not by others.

1701627630540.png
By this quantitative measure the playoff should be:

1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State

There's no hard, unassailable quantitative answer, there's the subjective valuing of multiple uncertain methods of ranking the teams.

Take all the rankings here: https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf
The composite takes Bama > FSU, but has Bama #5 behind tOSU. No matter how we're doing this a subjective decision to value something over something else has to be made.

By that composite we should have:
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Ohio State

"Quantitatively" the SEC needs Texas to be truly relevant in this year's CFP
 
The good news for college football is nothing has really changed. At one time, fans all argued about who the polls selected as champions or who bowl committees chose. Now, it is who was selected for the playoffs. It still drives viewership and interest. College football says, "mission accomplished"
 
the fact that my emo self wants to root for meat-chicken to kill bama is enough to ruin a fine sunday morning.

this whole thing is ****ed. again.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Look, I’ve said repeatedly the eventual goal is to close off the playoff to non-P2 teams, so I agree it’s a possibility. I just think it’s going to be a while before a 9-3 team is considered for the 10-12 spot over a 12-1 team regardless of conference.
Click to expand...
I think we're very close to this thing looking at a Big 12 or ACC team like we currently look at conference champions like Liberty.

They're undefeated and have 2 convincing wins over NM State, a team that dominated Auburn in the trenches - an Auburn team that both Bama & Georgia barely beat. But they're not close to the conversation. That's a very possible future for a future 2nd place finished in the ACC or B12 when compared with a 3-loss SEC or B1G team. Like when we have hoops tourney selection and teams from outside the Power 6 get left out (or terrible seeding) despite having much better NET/RPI and records than at-large P6 teams which get selected.

Let's not delude ourselves. This is about money. Money is power. The selection was the 4 teams that would be expected to deliver the highest ratings from among the justifiable options.
 
Buffnik said:
Alabama argument hinges on how they're getting screwed for playing a top non-conference opponent like the Committee (and networks) want. If they'd played a G5, they'd be a lock as the 1 or 2 seed right now.

That argument falls flat when looking at the UW & FSU schedules, but it makes a point with Michigan (though they do play a 9-game conference schedule).
Click to expand...
FWIW, this SOS ranking puts Texas as more worthy than the other 1 loss teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 133 NCAA Division 1 Football teams.
powerrankingsguru.com


Flat_Iron_Rising said:
I don't like this CFP selection stuff. Either way a deserving team is going to get left out and get the shaft.
Click to expand...

I dont know how else you do it. The NCAA uses selection committees for all the FCS stuff that they control. The year that UNC won one of their D2 NCs they were seeded lower and had to play all their playoff games on the road.

Since this is the last year of P5 and three teams went undefeated, a very difficult feat I dont see how they should be penalized. To me its the 3 one loss teams.

Niks comments got me thinking . Ive complained about a 12 team playoff before because I think its going to reward TV darlings in made TV moments and create a lot of rematches like Oregon Washington that will give teams a second or third bite at the apple. So It seems to me that they could take conferences CCG champion and auto seed them 1-4. Because you know CCG losers will get in I suspect theyll have them all playoff against each other in 5-12 while 1-4 wait. No rematches unless its in the CFP Final.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Quantitatively Bama is better by some measures than FSU, and not by others.

View attachment 67642
By this quantitative measure the playoff should be:

1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State

There's no hard, unassailable quantitative answer, there's the subjective valuing of multiple uncertain methods of ranking the teams.

Take all the rankings here: https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf
The composite takes Bama > FSU, but has Bama #5 behind tOSU. No matter how we're doing this a subjective decision to value something over something else has to be made.

By that composite we should have:
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Ohio State

"Quantitatively" the SEC needs Texas to be truly relevant in this year's CFP
Click to expand...
Again the data is using FSU with JT
 
Buffnik said:
I think we're very close to this thing looking at a Big 12 or ACC team like we currently look at conference champions like Liberty.

They're undefeated and have 2 convincing wins over NM State, a team that dominated Auburn in the trenches - an Auburn team that both Bama & Georgia barely beat. But they're not close to the conversation. That's a very possible future for a future 2nd place finished in the ACC or B12 when compared with a 3-loss SEC or B1G team. Like when we have hoops tourney selection and teams from outside the Power 6 get left out (or terrible seeding) despite having much better NET/RPI and records than at-large P6 teams which get selected.

Let's not delude ourselves. This is about money. Money is power. The selection was the 4 teams that would be expected to deliver the highest ratings from among the justifiable options.
Click to expand...
I wonder how long the Vanderbilts and Rutgers hold on in the SEC/B1G
 
hawg1 said:
That’s a most deserving argument. Is FSU without Travis better than Bama toady?
Click to expand...
I think they are. Go back to last week for a second. FSU played Florida. Alabama played Auburn. Auburn went 6-6, Florida 5-7. Similar record-wise, and both games on the road.

Florida State beat Florida by 9, and didn't need to go to the very end of the game to do it. They had to play Rodemaker and Glenn.
Alabama needed a miracle to get out of Auburn with a win.

How quickly we forgot that.
 
Duff Man said:
Somehow I doubt that Auburn with the same resume gets in over FSU.
Click to expand...
Yep. Alabama is one of the ratings juggernauts. Committee would have loved to put OSU or UGA in over UW, but Fox probably said it wanted to get some exposure for one of its new B1G properties, so all good as long as the selection was fair and balanced between them and ESPN. ESPN would rather promote its SEC assets than its ACC assets.
 
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