CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
81-78 ASU final
ASU improves to 4-6, Arizona falls to 8-2
ASU improves to 4-6, Arizona falls to 8-2
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Official RPI Watch 2014-15
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Drexel is on one hell of a roll. Now 7-5 in the CAA.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
2 point loss in Berkeley is a big blow to UCLA's Dance hopes.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Arizona: 10-2
Utah: 10-2
Oregon: 8-5
UCLA: 8-5
Stanford: 7-6
Oregon State: 7-6
Cal: 6-7
Arizona State: 5-7
Colorado: 5-7
Washington State: 5-8
Washington: 3-10
USC: 2-11
So, we're currently in 9th as ASU currently has the tiebreaker over us. We've got 4/6 remaining games on the road and one of our home games is Arizona. Everything points to it being very, very difficult to move up in the standings under those conditions. Let's look at our remaining opposition:
@ Oregon: Ducks are 18-8 and in the thick of the bubble. Hand it to Altman, the Ducks have improved as the season has gone on and it seemed in the preseason that we'd be the top 4 Pac side and Oregon sitting where we are. However, Oregon finishes with: CU, Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford, @ Oregon State. They know CU is a must-win for their Dance hopes before hitting that brutal stretch.
@ Oregon State: Beavs are 16-9. Remarkable job by Tinkle. Oregon State is eyeing the NIT and is hungry. Corvallis has become a tough place to play. Oregon State has yet to lose a home game this entire season.
Arizona: 22-3. Another top 10 Zona squad. They've had some puzzling lapses on the road though: losses @ ASU, Oregon State and UNLV. None of those teams are good.
Arizona State: 13-12 Sun Devils are in the limbo we are. Perhaps hoping for a run to make the NIT, but it's unlikely.
@ Washington: 14-10. Hard to believe UW was top 15 just 6 weeks ago. Huskies have completely collapsed with Upshaw gone. They've lost 7 straight (last win was against us on January 22). I'm not sure they even care at this point. This looks like the most winnable road game.
@ Wazzu: 11-14. Cougs have no realistic hope of climbing back to .500, but Kent has them playing hard and they've been far more competitive than many thought.
So, we're 12-12 and need to somehow finish .500 to be eligible for an NIT bid (however unlikely it may be even if we are eligible). It's hard to see CU doing any better than 1-1 in the Pac-12 tournament at this point, especially as we're in position to face either Arizona or Utah in the quarterfinals. That means CU has to go 3-3 in these remaining six games and then win the first P12 Tournament game.
Arizona State at home simply has to be a win.
Washington is crumbling. In the scenario, this would very likely need to be a win.
We destroyed Wazzu at home and Pullman has not been a "fortress" like Corvallis has this season.
Oregon State has been perfect at home, but when you scratch the surface you see that they squeaked out the narrowest of wins against USC and Wazzu at home and just lost by 13 at USC. OSU is certainly not unbeatable and they're simply due for a home loss or two.
We've had some good results in Eugene in recent years but Oregon is playing better at home this season and is desperate as they're on the bubble. Highly unlikely for CU to win.
Arizona is a top 10 team. We'd have to play the game of the season. It's not impossible to get Arizona bogged down in an ugly game when they're on the road, but it's highly unlikely CU wins.
Can CU find 2 road wins from those 4? It's a challenge, but UW, Wazzu and OSU are all "winnables". It'd be a nice takeaway from a hugely disappointing season to see the Buffs grow up and take care of some business on the road to wrap things up.
Utah: 10-2
Oregon: 8-5
UCLA: 8-5
Stanford: 7-6
Oregon State: 7-6
Cal: 6-7
Arizona State: 5-7
Colorado: 5-7
Washington State: 5-8
Washington: 3-10
USC: 2-11
So, we're currently in 9th as ASU currently has the tiebreaker over us. We've got 4/6 remaining games on the road and one of our home games is Arizona. Everything points to it being very, very difficult to move up in the standings under those conditions. Let's look at our remaining opposition:
@ Oregon: Ducks are 18-8 and in the thick of the bubble. Hand it to Altman, the Ducks have improved as the season has gone on and it seemed in the preseason that we'd be the top 4 Pac side and Oregon sitting where we are. However, Oregon finishes with: CU, Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford, @ Oregon State. They know CU is a must-win for their Dance hopes before hitting that brutal stretch.
@ Oregon State: Beavs are 16-9. Remarkable job by Tinkle. Oregon State is eyeing the NIT and is hungry. Corvallis has become a tough place to play. Oregon State has yet to lose a home game this entire season.
Arizona: 22-3. Another top 10 Zona squad. They've had some puzzling lapses on the road though: losses @ ASU, Oregon State and UNLV. None of those teams are good.
Arizona State: 13-12 Sun Devils are in the limbo we are. Perhaps hoping for a run to make the NIT, but it's unlikely.
@ Washington: 14-10. Hard to believe UW was top 15 just 6 weeks ago. Huskies have completely collapsed with Upshaw gone. They've lost 7 straight (last win was against us on January 22). I'm not sure they even care at this point. This looks like the most winnable road game.
@ Wazzu: 11-14. Cougs have no realistic hope of climbing back to .500, but Kent has them playing hard and they've been far more competitive than many thought.
So, we're 12-12 and need to somehow finish .500 to be eligible for an NIT bid (however unlikely it may be even if we are eligible). It's hard to see CU doing any better than 1-1 in the Pac-12 tournament at this point, especially as we're in position to face either Arizona or Utah in the quarterfinals. That means CU has to go 3-3 in these remaining six games and then win the first P12 Tournament game.
Arizona State at home simply has to be a win.
Washington is crumbling. In the scenario, this would very likely need to be a win.
We destroyed Wazzu at home and Pullman has not been a "fortress" like Corvallis has this season.
Oregon State has been perfect at home, but when you scratch the surface you see that they squeaked out the narrowest of wins against USC and Wazzu at home and just lost by 13 at USC. OSU is certainly not unbeatable and they're simply due for a home loss or two.
We've had some good results in Eugene in recent years but Oregon is playing better at home this season and is desperate as they're on the bubble. Highly unlikely for CU to win.
Arizona is a top 10 team. We'd have to play the game of the season. It's not impossible to get Arizona bogged down in an ugly game when they're on the road, but it's highly unlikely CU wins.
Can CU find 2 road wins from those 4? It's a challenge, but UW, Wazzu and OSU are all "winnables". It'd be a nice takeaway from a hugely disappointing season to see the Buffs grow up and take care of some business on the road to wrap things up.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Looking at 11 seed if we lose out
Probably 10 seed if we only beat ASU
Perhaps 9 seed if we only beat Wazzu
Probably 10 seed if we only beat ASU
Perhaps 9 seed if we only beat Wazzu
Utah is absolutely smoking ASU. 41-9 at halftime. Jeez.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Nice to have another Pac squad join us in the single digit half club. We should be able to beat ASU at home…second half of mountain road swing is not friendly to visitors. If we don't beat ASU at home then we've completely quit on the season.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Who would you like to see as CU's first round opponent in Vegas?
We're realistically looking at being anything from a 9-11 seed assuming we win 0, 1 or even 2 more games of these final 3. Of course, if we got hot and won these final 3 (however unlikely) we'd vault up the standings more but still end up with one of these teams as our opponent. There are a million scenarios still depending on what we and others do, but we're looking at Oregon State, Arizona State, Cal and Wazzu as our likely opponent in that first game.
We're realistically looking at being anything from a 9-11 seed assuming we win 0, 1 or even 2 more games of these final 3. Of course, if we got hot and won these final 3 (however unlikely) we'd vault up the standings more but still end up with one of these teams as our opponent. There are a million scenarios still depending on what we and others do, but we're looking at Oregon State, Arizona State, Cal and Wazzu as our likely opponent in that first game.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Washington got drilled by USC down in LA. We'll see tomorrow against ASU whether we have any fight left whatsoever or have completely packed it in for the season. If we do by chance show we've decided to put real effort in then Washington is certainly a winnable road game. UW closed up shop weeks ago. Ending the season with 4 more losses in a row (all of which involve weak bottom-half Pac opponents), making it a 12-19 season in which we lost our last 7 in a row and 10/11 would not be a pretty sight.
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this site has CU as an NIT 8 seed.
http://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
not familiar with that one. there was an nitbubblewatch.com or something that VT fans used to hit back in the Greenberg days, but I couldn't find it.
http://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
not familiar with that one. there was an nitbubblewatch.com or something that VT fans used to hit back in the Greenberg days, but I couldn't find it.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Surprising after all the gloom-and-doom talk, "need to get 19-20 wins" etc. Seems the conference tournaments have a lot to do with how many NIT slots remain open. Winning the next 2 can only help.