Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

[Buffnik]

I honestly don't think the research level, academic standards, AAU status, etc are going to matter much, if at all, when the college football landscape changes this drastically to these super conferences... Especially if you subscribe to the idea that the super conferences will eventually move away from the NCAA altogether.

Who do you think is running the Pac-12? It's the presidents and chancellors. That's who Larry Scott reports to. ADs barely have a voice. For them, it's about research affiliations. No interest in expanding conference affiliations if it doesn't drive research money & prestige. They'd pick New Mexico over BYU if forced to a choice.

 

[sackman]

The BYU policy of not playing on Sundays would be abandoned in a heartbeat if the Pac12 said "Play on Sundays or stay in the West Coast Conference"

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Who do you think is running the Pac-12? It's the presidents and chancellors. That's who Larry Scott reports to. ADs barely have a voice. For them, it's about research affiliations. No interest in expanding conference affiliations if it doesn't drive research money & prestige. They'd pick New Mexico over BYU if forced to a choice.

I just think this is somewhat naive, when Tv contracts are already in the multi billion dollar range. When these conferences are larger and there are fewer to go around, that money is going to rival the NFL, IMO. I admittedly don't know the money involved in research and academic prestige, but I have to imagine it pales in comparison. I just think things are going to change in an unprecedented way when this happens.

 

[Buffnik]

I just think this is somewhat naive, when Tv contracts are already in the multi billion dollar range. When these conferences are larger and there are fewer to go around, that money is going to rival the NFL, IMO. I admittedly don't know the money involved in research and academic prestige, but I have to imagine it pales in comparison. I just think things are going to change in an unprecedented way when this happens.

I actually hope that you are right. BYU is a P5 athletic department by every definition except for conference affiliation. They belong in the top western athletic conference. But I just don't think that athletics drives things on this. Maybe, though, they could make it happen. BYU's endowment is no joke, and they've got international reach. The resources are there to position themselves for Pac membership if they are willing to do so.

I'd personally take BYU over TCU.

 

[sackman]

If BYU comes in, does that mean we get a new travel partner? Who would that be? CSU would be the obvious choice, but I really don't think they fit in the PAC 12's culture. UNM?

Really reaching, here.

 

[Buffnik]

If BYU comes in, does that mean we get a new travel partner? Who would that be? CSU would be the obvious choice, but I really don't think they fit in the PAC 12's culture. UNM?

Really reaching, here.

Hopefully UNM makes another bowl game this year and Bob Davie gets it rolling there. They'd be a good cultural fit for the conference, avoid a flyover state, would excite the hoops fans (their arena might be the best in the west), and it's a pretty easy road trip for the conference.

Pretty much zero national cache right now, though.

 

[newkid]

I just think this is somewhat naive, when Tv contracts are already in the multi billion dollar range. When these conferences are larger and there are fewer to go around, that money is going to rival the NFL, IMO. I admittedly don't know the money involved in research and academic prestige, but I have to imagine it pales in comparison. I just think things are going to change in an unprecedented way when this happens.

I think in the context of a future super conference landscape, things like fit & academics will matter much less on the whole. Definitely. But we're not there. We're probably at least two TV contract cycles away from that actually happening. Given the context we have right now and in the next 6-10 years, I think those things will continue to matter a whole lot to the P12. But if in 2030 cfb has consolidated into mega conferences, taking a New Mexico or Colorado State right now won't mean ****. The P12 owns the west coast, they obviously won't get left out of a mega conference world.

As to whether the money from research and academics pales in comparison to the billions in FB money, well..
Endowment:
Stanford 22.2 billion
USC 4.7 billion
Berkeley 4.04 billion
UCLA 3.49
Washington 3.076 billion

All of those schools are working with at least $700 million in research dollars in any given year. Stanford prints money. Washington alone usually dabbles in over 1 billion dollars worth of research each year. Always top 3. Berkeley is building a $1 billion new campus specifically for research. . . The billions from college football contracts that dish out +20 mill a year per school are great for helping keep institutional support lowish, but it's small potatoes for the big prestige schools. I can't imagine a situation where college football becomes so valuable that it ever tips the scales for these schools. If and when the day comes that the conference expands which a bunch of random schools, it's because they were absolutely forced. Probably not because adding a bunch of MWC schools was gonna make it rain.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Who do you think is running the Pac-12? It's the presidents and chancellors. That's who Larry Scott reports to. ADs barely have a voice. For them, it's about research affiliations. No interest in expanding conference affiliations if it doesn't drive research money & prestige. They'd pick New Mexico over BYU if forced to a choice.

That I think has been the long term evolution. Conference's were originally aligned around geography to keep the bus ride short. Presidents have since aligned themselves around some core values like research, alumni footprint, and view of the conference partners.

If BYU comes in, does that mean we get a new travel partner? Who would that be? CSU would be the obvious choice, but I really don't think they fit in the PAC 12's culture. UNM?

Really reaching, here.

Any worse than Oregon State or Wazzou?

In our previous conference if anyone was the odd ball that didnt fit culturally, alumni wise, research wise, or for the strength of the conference it was CU.

 

[onealcd]

That I think has been the long term evolution. Conference's were originally aligned around geography to keep the bus ride short. Presidents have since aligned themselves around some core values like research, alumni footprint, and view of the conference partners.



Any worse than Oregon State or Wazzou?

In our previous conference if anyone was the odd ball that didnt fit culturally, alumni wise, research wise, or for the strength of the conference it was CU.

Conferences aren't interested in adding more schools like Oregon State and Wazzou.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Conferences aren't interested in adding more schools like Oregon State and Wazzou.

I get that. Academically Oregon State appears to be a better school than its sister.

Here is a list of where the Pac12 Members rank relative to some of our former conference mates and teams that have been discussed as possible targets for the Pac12 and BigXII expansion....

2 Stanford University
4 University of California-Berkeley
10 University of California, Los Angeles
13 University of Washington
26 University of Colorado at Boulder

(First Indent BigXII 2010)
28 The University of Texas at Austin ​

33 University of Southern California

(2nd Indent mentioned as BigXII/Pac12 Expansion Candidate)
45 Rice University​

46 University of Arizona
47 University of Utah
48 Arizona State University

51 Texas A & M University​

65-77 Oregon State University

65-77 Iowa State University

78-104 University of Cincinnati
78-104 Colorado State University
78-104 University of Houston​

78-104 University of Kansas
78-104 University of Missouri - Columbia
78-104 University of Nebraska - Lincoln

78-104 The University of New Mexico - Albuquerque
78-104 University of Notre Dame
​

78-104 University of Oregon
78-104 Washington State University

105-125 Brigham Young University
105-125 San Diego State University​

126-146 Kansas State University
126-146 Oklahoma State University
126-146 University of Oklahoma - Norman

Not ranked (BigXII) Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, or WVU. (Others) Boise State, Fresno St., Memphis, Nevada, UNLV, SJSU.
ARWU uses six objective indicators to rank world universities, including the number of alumni and staff winning Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals, number of highly cited researchers selected by Thomson Reuters, number of articles published in journals of Nature and Science, number of articles indexed in Science Citation Index - Expanded and Social Sciences Citation Index, and per capita performance of a university. More than 1200 universities are actually ranked by ARWU every year and the best 500 are published.

A survey on higher education published by The Economist in 2005 commented ARWU as "the most widely used annual ranking of the world's research universities". Burton Bollag, a reporter at Chronicle of Higher Education wrote that ARWU "is considered the most influential international ranking".

One of the factors for the significant influence of ARWU is that its methodology is scientifically sound, stable and transparent. The EU Research Headlines reported ARWU work on 31st December 2003: "The universities were carefully evaluated using several indicators of research performance." Chancellor of Oxford University, Chris Patten, said "it looks like a pretty good stab at a fair comparison." Professor Simon Margison of Institute of Education, University of London commented that one of the strengths of "the academically rigorous and globally inclusive Jiao Tong approach" is "constantly tuning its rankings and invites open collaboration in that". http://www.shanghairanking.com/World-University-Rankings-2014/USA.html​

But the pickle, at least with the Pac12 and other conferences when you look at this list, is that there isn't a lot left otherwise unless you loosen your standards. Or consider other factors beyond academics. Or discount those other factors like BYUs religious identity or Houstons distance from its peers while being in a large city, or the poor ranking of Oklahoma's academics relative to its athletics.

If CSU were to join the Pac 12 it would academically be one of the last 4 schools in the conference. But If CSU were to join the BigXII it would be among the top 4 academic schools in the conference.

Factor in the growth in Colorado and in Fort Collins compared to some of the other candidates and the fact that the school ranks above some of the legacy members of the conference and Im not sure CSU is such a bad fit.

 

[Buffs35]

If BYU was an option, and I agree with those that have their doubts, I can think of a few teams I would rather add than CSU.

1) AF - national brand, interesting offense, and the service academies are loosening their requirements for service afterward for professional athletes.
2) KU - won't happen, but would love to get the Jayhawks as a rival and travel partner.
3) SDSU - As was mentioned earlier, proximity is less of an issue these days, so I would have the Aztecs be our last game of the season. I would also love to add another So. Cal. team on the schedule, and it would move Utah teams to the north. Get to either spend Thanksgiving sipping San Diego pale ales prior to kickoff, or watch CU take it to the So. Cal boys in boulder when the weather can be a huge advantage.
4) NM - growing population, cheap flights, short drive from Denver. Taos and Santa Fe are on the way. On the door step to west Tejas.

To me, CSU is behind UNLV and Nevada, and on the same level as Boise. Not because they are terrible, they just do add much be CU is already in the Pac.

 

[onealcd]

If UNLV could get a stadium built to share with an NFL team right off the strip they would move up a ton. Amazing basketball facilities already and we could finally have a championship game in Vegas which would be epic.

 

[buffaholic]

The BYU policy of not playing on Sundays would be abandoned in a heartbeat if the Pac12 said "Play on Sundays or stay in the West Coast Conference"

I'd call that an opinion of one. The entire church is firmly against Sunday play and a change of conference is not going to make them budge on that.

 

[buffaholic]

Factor in the growth in Colorado and in Fort Collins compared to some of the other candidates and the fact that the school ranks above some of the legacy members of the conference and Im not sure CSU is such a bad fit.

Without all the research, I concluded the same thing. CSU doesn't currently draw big (stadium or on TV), but if they were to be come a competitive force, I bet they would.
Much of Colorado's population didn't grow up here, or attend these schools. But many, many newcomers have adopted the Broncos (easy to join a winner). Our CFB scene here is unclaimed. After 20 years of bad football in Colorado, there's a large segment of fans who'd adopt a winner and start following. That's how I became a fan here. Could CSU become a winner? I think in time if they were part of the Big12, yes - they could climb that mountain.

 

[newkid]

If UNLV could get a stadium built to share with an NFL team right off the strip they would move up a ton. Amazing basketball facilities already and we could finally have a championship game in Vegas which would be epic.

I'm fascinated by large scale university capital projects. UNLV has so many areas of opportunity, including a football stadium. However, is sharing an NFL stadium really a great idea when you have the land to build your own from scratch? I'm not so sure. I've been to SDSU games, a program that has been pretty solid for damn near a decade now and those games are not fun. I can only imagine how even a mediocre UNLV program would look inside an NFL stadium. Never mind in their current state. I think they would be better served building something like what Wazzu has, right on campus.

I get why it's a popular idea, UNLV thinks it's the easiest path to getting it done. But I just can't see a sparsely attended 65k stadium surrounded by a sea of empty parking being the best option. We'll see.

 

[sackman]

I'd call that an opinion of one. The entire church is firmly against Sunday play and a change of conference is not going to make them budge on that.

The entire church was against allowing blacks in the church until they were threatened with losing their non-profit status as a religious entity. Then, God himself told the church elders that it was OK. I'm certain that if the price is right, God will make another appearance.

 

[Jello Bear]

I'd call that an opinion of one. The entire church is firmly against Sunday play and a change of conference is not going to make them budge on that.

Yep, they're pretty serious about not working or doing anything but family and church stuff on Sunday. My business partner is LDS and it would take literally a raging fire to get him to answer an email or text regarding business.

 

[buffaholic]

The entire church was against allowing blacks in the church until they were threatened with losing their non-profit status as a religious entity. Then, God himself told the church elders that it was OK. I'm certain that if the price is right, God will make another appearance.

I think allowing blacks in the church, women able to have leadership positions, or even the abolishment of polygamy - were all done under political pressure, non-profit status, etc. Not only was their growth (i.e. $$$'s) as a church in jeopardy, but their existence as a church.

Additional revenue to the church for joining a P5 conference is mice nuts in comparison.

 

[sackman]

I think allowing blacks in the church, women able to have leadership positions, or even the abolishment of polygamy - were all done under political pressure, non-profit status, etc. Not only was their growth (i.e. $$$'s) as a church in jeopardy, but their existence as a church.

Additional revenue to the church for joining a P5 conference is mice nuts in comparison.

Their existence as a D-1 athletic department would be in jeopardy. The LDS church has shown a highly maliable set of standards when money is involved.

 

[CVBuff]

BYU would drop athletics if Sunday play became a mandatory part of NCAA play. BYU is now the only LDS Church school with anything other than intramurals. BYU Hawaii and Ricks college, BYU's farm football team during the 80's and 90's, already dropped all college sports. It is a no compromise issue, something about another Big 10, the ones handed down to Moses.

 

[buffaholic]

Their existence as a D-1 athletic department would be in jeopardy. The LDS church has shown a highly maliable set of standards when money is involved.

Their D1 existence will never be in jeopardy over this issue. Just money. Some D1 conference will always have a spot for BYU. Or they can be independent.

 

[Jello Bear]

Their D1 existence will never be in jeopardy over this issue. Just money. Some D1 conference will always have a spot for BYU. Or they can be independent.

This is usually the part where Sacky digs in his heels and insists he's right.

 

[buffaholic]

This is usually the part where Donald Trump digs in his heels and insists he's right.

FIFY

 

[Buffnik]

Without all the research, I concluded the same thing. CSU doesn't currently draw big (stadium or on TV), but if they were to be come a competitive force, I bet they would.
Much of Colorado's population didn't grow up here, or attend these schools. But many, many newcomers have adopted the Broncos (easy to join a winner). Our CFB scene here is unclaimed. After 20 years of bad football in Colorado, there's a large segment of fans who'd adopt a winner and start following. That's how I became a fan here. Could CSU become a winner? I think in time if they were part of the Big12, yes - they could climb that mountain.

Based on what? They haven't been able to climb that mountain in the MWC unless a 2nd or 3rd place finish in their division is something that makes a team P5 worthy these days. The last 2 programs to get bump ups were Utah and TCU. Their success in football has only 3 comparables among current G5 programs who might be worthy: Boise State, BYU and Houston. There are others who have had a year or two but have been inconsistent: UCF, Temple, Cincinnati, USF, Memphis, UConn, East Carolina, Fresno State, San Diego State lead that group (partially because there are some elite hoops programs in that group to go with respectable football). I don't see how CSU is even in the conversation with those programs. They're much more similar to programs like Utah State and Northern Illinois, which have frankly enjoyed a bit more success and no one is talking about for P5.

 

[sackman]

This is usually the part where Sacky digs in his heels and insists he's right.

If I really cared about BYU, I might do just that. In the grand scheme of things, I really don't care.

 

[BuffHerd]

The entire church was against allowing blacks in the church until they were threatened with losing their non-profit status as a religious entity. Then, God himself told the church elders that it was OK. I'm certain that if the price is right, God will make another appearance.

Rep this man.

 

[buffaholic]

Based on what? They haven't been able to climb that mountain in the MWC unless a 2nd or 3rd place finish in their division is something that makes a team P5 worthy these days. The last 2 programs to get bump ups were Utah and TCU. Their success in football has only 3 comparables among current G5 programs who might be worthy: Boise State, BYU and Houston. There are others who have had a year or two but have been inconsistent: UCF, Temple, Cincinnati, USF, Memphis, UConn, East Carolina, Fresno State, San Diego State lead that group (partially because there are some elite hoops programs in that group to go with respectable football). I don't see how CSU is even in the conversation with those programs. They're much more similar to programs like Utah State and Northern Illinois, which have frankly enjoyed a bit more success and no one is talking about for P5.

Well, I think Sonny and recently McElwain had that going in a positive direction, so I'd include them in your 1A list.

If Coach McElwain was coaching a P5 team, I think you'd have seen a big jump in recruiting at that time (they are in COLORADO after all)! Boise State has never seen that bump in recruiting despite on-field success (nor did Utah or TCU).

The only evidence I have is conjecture that the state of Colorado is intriguing to a lot of people. Nobody is intrigued with going to school in Cincinnati, Fresno etc. USF and SDSU have some intrigue though.

If CSU were a P5 and (big AND) they somehow improved and got to be known as an up and comer, I could see them getting good. Due to the intrigue that is Colorado.

 

[sackman]

BYU would drop athletics if Sunday play became a mandatory part of NCAA play. BYU is now the only LDS Church school with anything other than intramurals. BYU Hawaii and Ricks college, BYU's farm football team during the 80's and 90's, already dropped all college sports. It is a no compromise issue, something about another Big 10, the ones handed down to Moses.

My point is simply this: historically, LDS has had very strict rules in place for a lot of stuff. When it's financially advantageous for them to take a more liberal stance on those rules, all of the sudden the rules that were once cast in stone become more like guidelines.

Funny how drinking Coke is OK now that the LDS church owns a bunch of stock in Coca Cola.

 

[Buffnik]

Just took a quick look at last year's CU conference schedules. Men & Women BB played a whole lot of games on Sunday during the conference schedule. VB does a lot, too. Soccer was like half its Pac-12 matches on Sunday.

I suspect this is why I saw some chatter about the Big 12 potentially looking at BYU as a football-only member.

Decided to google it and see if it had gained any steam. Apparently, the talk around the ACC meeting is that this is something the Big 12 is exploring with possibly UConn being added also as football-only. The general thought on that: step forward for BYU but not a good situation for UConn. http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ig-12-expansion-connecticut-byu-football-only

 

[Buffnik]

Something else I've been thinking about.

Why is it that we don't think it's so strange for Notre Dame to be in the ACC or the Big 12 to be considering BYU... but we look at it as "too far" for the Pac-12 to go to add Houston? Hell, why not add them along with Tulane (AAU member with an R1 research rank in the major market of New Orleans)?

Here's a very recent article on Tulane and it possibly landing in the Big 12: http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orle...cle_0e4d9c0e-4eb9-11e6-9c54-27a6d8001151.html

As I look at what the athletics and media sides of the Pac-12 are looking for and I match that up with what the Pac-12 presidents are looking for, the best option available right this second is to add Houston + Tulane. It sounds weird to me, but it actually fits. Now, what would fit even better would be if the Big 12 added them, built them up for 10 years, the conference then crumbled at the time of the 2025 grant of rights & media expiration, and the Pac-12 was in position to pick them off as higher prestige (existing P5) programs that have grown on someone else's watch. But maybe the thing to do is to stake the conference's claim on Texas and Louisiana?