Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

[bpc5180]

I don't see OU wanting any part of the SEC. Big 10/Pac 12 would be attractive but they would need to ensure some Texas affiliation remains or it's a no go. That's their life blood. No Texas, no Oklahoma.

 

[Buffs35]

PS - I agree the LHN is a poison pill. I can't believe ESPN signed a contract of that length. Whoever approved that 3 years ago, clearly did not see the writing on the wall related to cable TV.

Or they realized that most people in middle-of-nowhere Texas don't have the internet, and if they do, they don't know how to use it.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

What if they took UT out of the equation? What would it take to get OU and KU, or OU and OSU if they couldn’t be split?

The State of Texas has several schools that get the Pac into Texas without having to kiss the ring of Tex-ass.

I don’t want that headache again.

Those teams dont move the needle very much because they are in rural agrarian fly over states. I think you take OU (maybe OSU) and three schools from Texas that have big alumni bases in Houston, Dallas, and or San Antonio. Why? Because big TV contracts are about big TV markets.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Biggest hurdle is figuring out the distribution issues with DirecTV showing these schools that the conference is capable of taking that next step on it's own. Next is trying to limit the late night kickoffs for big time programs as much as possible. Also have to try and fix engagement issues with the fanbases (limiting late night kickoffs will help), the issue with a lot of the ratings is the kickoff times but also the best team over the last 8 years has been Stanford who has an awful fanbase. Basically we need Stanford to fall back to being a bottom feeder with teams like USC, UCLA, Washington, Colorado and ASU taking over the conference from an athletics point of view.

When your paying millions of dollars to broadcast games on your 24 hour network you expect the people cashing those checks to be flexible about the scheduling so as to get as much on TV as possible. Or, were going to find another set of schools that is willing to play at night and put them on instead of you. Its a difficult dilemma. Bite the hand that feeds me? Or let another team have my time slot?

 

[Buffs35]

Those teams dont move the needle very much because they are in rural agrarian fly over states. I think you take OU (maybe OSU) and three schools from Texas that have big alumni bases in Houston, Dallas, and or San Antonio. Why? Because big TV contracts are about big TV markets.

TV markets do help, but they aren't the only consideration. If that were the case SDSU (San Diego #28) and KU (Kansas City #33) would be more valuable than UT (Austin #39) and OU (OKC #44).

Plus Denver is #17, and CU doesn't even register. TV markets are nice, but they end up being a red herring.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I sincerely doubt UT is going anywhere. They have constructed their little pond, are raking in more cash than they will get anywhere else (h/t to Miami on that) and they call the shots, with the only need to pay OU just a little deference now and then. No other conference is going to be able to match that scenario in the foreseeable future.

Without UT, P12 expansion is problematic. Expansion can add, but carries a greater risk. UNM, UNLV, UN-R, BYU, Boise, SDSU, potential regional partners, just are not that attractive, and some carry major issues (BYU). You could go into the MTZ to get AFA, CSU, UW, but again, the addition is minimal. It is only when you stretch into the CTZ that attractive partners are there, but UT the whale of the group, is a cancer and too fat and happy to move, so you wold be picking up the schools that want a life raft from the wake of Bevo.

I don't think any P5 conference stretches over 3 TZ's. TV slots would be difficult. I think that is why nobody else does it. The ACC, SEC and BInteger get the early and early afternoon slots, B12, BigINteger and P12 get the early afternoon, P12 and the elites fill the late afternoon and evening spots.

Right now, the P12 is probably better off standing pat. The lack of population concentration in the west is the problem. There just aren't enough schools/TV sets to make it worthwhile.

If and when the B12 expands, they will not go into the MTZ for the reasons above, IMO.

First, if the Texas Ten does get poached by the SEC or the ACC or someone else the University of Texas can and will stand as an independent. Maybe placing their non revenue sports in the old Big East.

Second (bolded), the TV people that made our IPF and the CC a possibility WILL have to agree to a grant of rights thats financially compelling for them. And those teams really dont add enough.

Third, you expand for the purposes of a more compelling product and a larger more lucrative TV contract. Anyone following cord cutting knows that the companies paying these big fees today might not be able to pay them in the future. Until the dust settles I dont think those nice TV people are gonna be encouraging the Larry Scotts of the world behind the scenes to increase their networks pay out unless they get something obvious and big in returns ($$$)

 

[MiamiBuffs]

TV markets do help, but they aren't the only consideration. If that were the case SDSU (San Diego #28) and KU (Kansas City #33) would be more valuable than UT (Austin #39) and OU (OKC #44).

Plus Denver is #17, and CU doesn't even register. TV markets are nice, but they end up being a red herring.

What are Dallas and Houston ranked?

OU is in the mix because they have a ton of alums in the state of Texas. Much like CU has a ton of alums in California. Thats why I suggest taking the schools with biggest alumni bases in Houston and Dallas if you cant get UT.

To say it another way UT is clearly worth $11million a year to someone because they are the star of that #39 TV market.

 

[Buffs35]

What are Dallas and Houston ranked?

OU is in the mix because they have a ton of alums in the state of Texas. Much like CU has a ton of alums in California. Thats why I suggest taking the schools with biggest alumni bases in Houston and Dallas if you cant get UT.

To say it another way UT is clearly worth $11million a year to someone because they are the star of that #39 TV market.

Dallas-Ft Worth #5
Houston #10

I think we are on the same page, but national brands, like Tex-ass, you can look beyond the local media market. South Bend is #96. Teams like CU in its current form, unfortunately, you cannot even rely on the size of their local media market. Adding Houston is a no-brainer for me, but I think it would be foolish to rely on a major bump simply because Houston is the 10th largest media market in the country. Many shades of grey here.

 

[onealcd]

When your paying millions of dollars to broadcast games on your 24 hour network you expect the people cashing those checks to be flexible about the scheduling so as to get as much on TV as possible. Or, were going to find another set of schools that is willing to play at night and put them on instead of you. Its a difficult dilemma. Bite the hand that feeds me? Or let another team have my time slot?

They aren't going to make teams in the central and eastern time zone play games at 10 pm local. The PAC 12 is the only power conference in the mountain and pacific time zone that can provide content but I'm not talking about limiting all games, just make sure big games get good tv slots, especially those that carry viewers.

 

[Buffnik]

Regarding OU and the SEC, I just don't see that with the recent direction of the university.

President Boren is a big time academic type (Yale guy, Phi Beta Kappa, Rhodes Scholar) who has worked his ass off to hire Nobel laureates, increase OU's research outputs, and take that university to another level. He'll want B1G or Pac.

From a football standpoint, OU recruiting depends on Texas and also on California. Their ideal scenario would probably be to join the Pac along with UT, keeping their Red River Rivalry and connections to TX while dramatically strengthening their connections to CA.

 

[Buffnik]

I really wish there was an expansion scenario that was financially viable and kept us in the MPTZs.

It's a different culture out here and I love it. Western cities are fantastic.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I really wish there was an expansion scenario that was financially viable and kept us in the MPTZs.

It's a different culture out here and I love it. Western cities are fantastic.

Nobody takes football seriously enough for that to be the case, unfortunately. Too many alternatives.

 

[Buffs35]

I really wish there was an expansion scenario that was financially viable and kept us in the MPTZs.

It's a different culture out here and I love it. Western cities are fantastic.

Agreed. A boy can dream. Give me Taos/Sana Fe, San Diego, Vegas and Tahoe for vacations spots with a little football on the side. Done and done.

 

[BlackNGold]

Meh. Things come and go. Once Saban is gone, Alabama will regress. Alabama is really the only school in the SEC that has been consistently great over the last ten years.

Programs like Alabama (Ohio State), they take their Football seriously. If one guy does not get it done they go find another guy. In my lifetime I have seen them win National Championships with 3 different coaches (Bear Bryant, Gene Stallings, and Nick Saban). Alabama has won more National Championships than CU has won conference championships.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Regarding OU and the SEC, I just don't see that with the recent direction of the university.

President Boren is a big time academic type (Yale guy, Phi Beta Kappa, Rhodes Scholar) who has worked his ass off to hire Nobel laureates, increase OU's research outputs, and take that university to another level. He'll want B1G or Pac.

From a football standpoint, OU recruiting depends on Texas and also on California. Their ideal scenario would probably be to join the Pac along with UT, keeping their Red River Rivalry and connections to TX while dramatically strengthening their connections to CA.

OU only recently started hitting cali hard for recruits - within the last decade. Their bread and butter was, and always will be, tejass + top tier okie talents.

I'm pretty sure their trip to the holiday bowl is when the upped their focus on the left coast.

 

[Highlander]

I really wish there was an expansion scenario that was financially viable and kept us in the MPTZs.

It's a different culture out here and I love it. Western cities are fantastic.

I echo this comment. I grew up in Chicago and my first job was outside of DC, then spent 3 years in NC. I got the hell out of there as quickly as I could to get west. NC was fine, but just not my thing.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

They aren't going to make teams in the central and eastern time zone play games at 10 pm local. The PAC 12 is the only power conference in the mountain and pacific time zone that can provide content but I'm not talking about limiting all games, just make sure big games get good tv slots, especially those that carry viewers.

Yeah, but the Hawaii game last year was played at that time because of TV.

When you say good time slots are you talking about for us fans? Or for a regional TV audience? Or a national TV audience. Given that a lot of the SEC and B1G are in higher density ET and CT zones the Pac12 will be hard pressed to displace games from those two conferences outside of our footprint. Even a 7pm PT kickoff is late for the east coast. Maybe the UCLA USC game can break thru. Outside that not much is very compelling compared to some of the established rivalries in those two conferences.

It's shame we couldnt finalize that deal with the B1G where P12 schools played 2 of their 3 OOC games. Then we could have spread the OOC throughout the season and got some nice air time in the east and central.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Programs like Alabama (Ohio State), they take their Football seriously. If one guy does not get it done they go find another guy. In my lifetime I have seen them win National Championships with 3 different coaches (Bear Bryant, Gene Stallings, and Nick Saban). Alabama has won more National Championships than CU has won conference championships.

Makes you wonder about what will happen at Nebraska. They want so desperately to get back to that level. But to your point there is an ethos within those kinds of schools that find not playing for it all as unacceptable.

 

[onealcd]

When you say good time slots are you talking about for us fans? Or for a regional TV audience? Or a national TV audience. Given that a lot of the SEC and B1G are in higher density ET and CT zones the Pac12 will be hard pressed to displace games from those two conferences outside of our footprint. Even a 7pm PT kickoff is late for the east coast. Maybe the UCLA USC game can break thru. Outside that not much is very compelling. It's shame we couldnt finalize that deal with the B1G where P12 schools played 2 of their 3 OOC games. Then we could have spread the OOC throughout the season and got some nice air time in the east and central.

I'm talking about game slots between 4-6:30 pm Mountain time.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

I just told my wife that after the current cable TV contract expires, I'm killing it with fire. For the first time in the past 5 years she has heard me say that, she said that's fine - she doesn't watch that much traditional TV these days anyway.

I'm sort of kicking myself for just extending the Comcast agreement for a year, but it will take at least that long for Sling TV or some other source to get the local stations and and the sports stations I need to all be readily available over the internet any way.

The lynchpin is the Pac 12 network - they need to get this thing on line in the next 12 months.

PS - I agree the LHN is a poison pill. I can't believe ESPN signed a contract of that length. Whoever approved that 3 years ago, clearly did not see the writing on the wall related to cable TV.

Cable TV has been in denial for the past 10yrs. Hoping that it is just a fad that will go away.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I just told my wife that after the current cable TV contract expires, I'm killing it with fire. For the first time in the past 5 years she has heard me say that, she said that's fine - she doesn't watch that much traditional TV these days anyway.

I'm sort of kicking myself for just extending the Comcast agreement for a year, but it will take at least that long for Sling TV or some other source to get the local stations and and the sports stations I need to all be readily available over the internet any way.

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/network/vue/?plans

They appear to carry CBS4 in Denver but thats the only one. Not sure though. Im about to add an HD antennae to the house which solves my locals problem. Just got the gigabit fiber going. DirecTV is gonna be killed with fire next month or two.

PS - I agree the LHN is a poison pill. I can't believe ESPN signed a contract of that length. Whoever approved that 3 years ago, clearly did not see the writing on the wall related to cable TV.

Signed in 2011 which was 5 years ago. Right around peak cable. I would assume that was negotiated in 2010 or earlier.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I'm talking about game slots between 4-6:30 pm Mountain time.

Yeah. Play the games in your time zone/foot print and dont punish the local fans (11pm kickoff? really?). I know the global strategy market makers dont think that way (lets play a game in China and Australia).

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

View attachment 20182

What Key sports channels do you need that are missing from the above ($35mo)?

View attachment 20183

Fox Sports, Fox Sports Regionals, ESPN Desportes, are offered on the Elite ($45mo)

Pac 12 Network

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Phoenix on Kodi has P12N in 1080p

Are you for hire to give me a media makeover?

 

[Buffnik]

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

They talked briefly about this on the radio that morn. I found it interesting that New Mexico is one of the 17.

 

[Buffnik]

They talked briefly about this on the radio that morn. I found it interesting that New Mexico is one of the 17.

It seems like it is based completely on who contacted the Big 12. Nothing to do with the interest level of the Big 12.

 

[onealcd]

Seems to me if teams say no to Houston, UT will kill expansion again, which would be awesome to watch.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

It seems like it is based completely on who contacted the Big 12. Nothing to do with the interest level of the Big 12.

Correct.

The media has mentioned numerous as possible invitees. This is the first time I've heard UNM as a possibility.

The other 16 have been talked about ad nauseum; some more (byu, cinci), some less (usf, csewe).

 

[sackman]

It seems like it is based completely on who contacted the Big 12. Nothing to do with the interest level of the Big 12.

This makes sense. I doubt the Big 12 has interest in 17 schools. They're doing this based on who contacted them.