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Pac-12 expansion is now inevitable

In some ways UNM makes more sense than CSU as a travel partner to BYU. It's a much smaller media market (#44), but a whole lot less competition from pro sports.

To be clear, they're both a complete dilution of the Big12 brand so I would be shocked if either were added - just making a point.
 
JPinCO said:
In some ways UNM makes more sense than CSU as a travel partner to BYU. It's a much smaller media market (#44), but a whole lot less competition from pro sports.
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Would be interesting if the Big 12 passed on UNM and UH... and then the Pac-12 stepped in and grabbed them.
 
onealcd said:
Seems to me if teams say no to Houston, UT will kill expansion again, which would be awesome to watch.
Click to expand...

But will the conference stay together?

If I recall correctly the non UT forces in the conference get a pittance of the revenue that UT gets. They also know that they would get more money if there was a CCG. And they know that without that CCG the chances of being excluded from the CF Playoff is a smidge higher. Oklahoma has been the most vociferous about how unhappy they are with the current situation. And they have people that remember what a conference without UT was like (big 8). Would they take their ball and go home?
 
MiamiBuffs said:
But will the conference stay together?

If I recall correctly the non UT forces in the conference get a pittance of the revenue that UT gets. They also know that they would get more money if there was a CCG. And they know that without that CCG the chances of being excluded from the CF Playoff is a smidge higher. Oklahoma has been the most vociferous about how unhappy they are with the current situation. And they have people that remember what a conference without UT was like (big 8). Would they take their ball and go home?
Click to expand...
Doesn't seem like UT is interested in being in the conference for much longer but they already have a championship game this coming year.
 
Some quick notes on Grant of Rights agreements & the one the Big 12 has:

  1. Big 12 GoR runs through 2025
  2. Big 12 GoR includes 1st & 2nd Tier Rights, but not 3rd Tier Rights. What this means is that national networks get to pick their games each week (Tier 1), then the smaller cable partner gets to pick games (Tier 2). What's left is Tier 3, which the schools own for their home games in the Big 12. UT has a monster deal on its Tier 3 rights through its LHN deal.
  3. Big 12 GoR does not include a termination provision or a liquidated damages clause. Intentionally vague. Basically, all Big 12 members assigned their Tier 1 & 2 rights to the conference for a specified period of time without any specific penalties or mechanisms for taking them back.
  4. In general, GoR deals are not very strong and would not stop a school from leaving. Courts generally go by specific damages. So, unless the networks with which the Big 12 has media deals reduce the payout to the Big 12 after teams leave, there isn't any financial damage to anyone. And without a buyout provision already agreed to, the Big 12's GoR is pretty much worthless as long as the networks agree to pay up.
So what does this mean for the Pac-12?

I think it means that if, for example, expansion got blocked and it really pissed off Oklahoma, that the Pac-12 could probably sweep in and poach Oklahoma along with another school. Just to put a name to it, let's say the Pac-12 became the Pac-14 by adding Oklahoma and Kansas.

What is likely to happen is that it would go to the courts. The Pac-14 would obtain the Tier 1 & Tier 2 rights to OU and KU games. If the networks did not reduce the payments to the Big 12, the Big 12 would not have much foundation to claim damages. Likely, there would be a negotiated buyout settlement just like there was for CU and Nebraska several years ago.

What I'm getting at is that we should be watching this closely. There might be a window of opportunity for the Pac-12 to make a major move here. I think that the key to it all is Oklahoma. Maybe it ends up being Oklahoma plus Houston or Oklahoma plus a 2nd Big 12 program. OU is definitely the university to watch.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
But will the conference stay together?

If I recall correctly the non UT forces in the conference get a pittance of the revenue that UT gets. They also know that they would get more money if there was a CCG. And they know that without that CCG the chances of being excluded from the CF Playoff is a smidge higher. Oklahoma has been the most vociferous about how unhappy they are with the current situation. And they have people that remember what a conference without UT was like (big 8). Would they take their ball and go home?
Click to expand...

The story down here is that the b12 conference approached espin about $ for adding a CCG. Espin responded that the championship game funds had "dried up".

A few months later espin and the acc sign a huge tv deal.

Rumor (from a rivals guy) is that the conference will add 2-4 teams - any teams, it doesn't matter - forcing espin to shell out additional money.

The "do this for spite" angle might be a reach, but espin saying no to funding a CCG seems plausible. It would explain why the conference has fast-tracked the expansion efforts.

Consider also the ****bailer's unca Ken was head of the conference expansion group. Early this year the stance was that the group was only doing research and that no schools were being discussed. As Waco unraveled, the headless group wasn't even scheduled to give a presentation at the annual conference meetings.

6 weeks later, the big integer is past the research and contact phases, and is speeding towards video conference (interviews) presentations by 17 potential schools.

There's an odor in the air down here, and the odor has a name. It's called desperation.
 
Suggestion to merge all 10 Big 12 teams with SEC or Pac 12.

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/col...on-survive-merging-conference-like-sec-pac-12

"Merge with preferably the SEC, but if not, the Pac-12. Not a split," he said recently of what the conference should do. "Not six schools heading west, like was discussed in 2010. A merger. Ten Big 12 schools join the SEC to form a 24-team conference, or join the Pac-12 to form a 22-team conference."

While Tramel admits that his theory is a "longshot," he says it isn't impossible. He cites the Pac-12 network's inability to be "the cash cow for which it hoped" as a reason the Big 12 could join forces to make a 22-team conference.
 
Buffs35 said:
Suggestion to merge all 10 Big 12 teams with SEC or Pac 12.

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/col...on-survive-merging-conference-like-sec-pac-12

"Merge with preferably the SEC, but if not, the Pac-12. Not a split," he said recently of what the conference should do. "Not six schools heading west, like was discussed in 2010. A merger. Ten Big 12 schools join the SEC to form a 24-team conference, or join the Pac-12 to form a 22-team conference."

While Tramel admits that his theory is a "longshot," he says it isn't impossible. He cites the Pac-12 network's inability to be "the cash cow for which it hoped" as a reason the Big 12 could join forces to make a 22-team conference.
Click to expand...

Never happen. Pac-12 presidents would not even consider approving half the universities in the Big 12. WVU? KSU? TCU? OSU? Baylor? Complete non-starters.
 
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Buffnik said:
Never happen. Pac-12 presidents would not even consider approving half the universities in the Big 12. WVU? KSU? TCU? OSU? Baylor? Complete non-starters.
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Wholeheartedly agree. I’m just glad to know that throwing out completely ridiculous ideas doesn’t limit you to a poster on a message board, it also makes you qualified to be a journalist.
 

And it would be an issue for every other conference. I bet that UT is going to try to hold together the Big 12 until 2030. We'll see who leaves before then, but UT is perfectly happy with a conference it politically dominates.
 
Buffs35 said:
Suggestion to merge all 10 Big 12 teams with SEC or Pac 12.

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/col...on-survive-merging-conference-like-sec-pac-12

"Merge with preferably the SEC, but if not, the Pac-12. Not a split," he said recently of what the conference should do. "Not six schools heading west, like was discussed in 2010. A merger. Ten Big 12 schools join the SEC to form a 24-team conference, or join the Pac-12 to form a 22-team conference."

While Tramel admits that his theory is a "longshot," he says it isn't impossible. He cites the Pac-12 network's inability to be "the cash cow for which it hoped" as a reason the Big 12 could join forces to make a 22-team conference.
Click to expand...

This sounds like the same kind of thinking that allows CSU fans to imagine getting an invite to the the PAC12. I have no idea where the authors loyalties lie but they likely are with one of the B12 schools that is a likely candidate for exclusion if the B12 ends up getting disolved.

Realistically if the B12 were to break up today and their members had to find new homes how many would find themselves on the outside looking in for major conferences.

Schools that would be highly desired by other conferences:
Texas
Oklahoma
Schools that shouldn't have a problem finding a power conference home:
Kansas
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
Schools with a decent chance of finding a power conference home but no guarantee:
Kansas State
TCU
Texas Tech
Schools on the outside looking in
Baylor
Iowa State

Arguments could be made for moving a couple of schools one category down like West Virginia and Texas Tech but I think they would have appeal to at least one major conference.

Baylor would argue this list strongly but their history has been as a bottom feeder other than when they are cheating heavily and they don't bring a lot to the table financially, not enough to make them worth putting up with.
 
Let's say for the sake of argument The P12 performs it's due diligence regarding TV markets West of Colo. (probably already done) that contain within them those colleges one step down from P5. IE. Wyo, AFA, UNM, C..spit U & Boise S (not including BYU).
Derive this scenario (1 pod of possibly 4) total designed to own the West..it's a hypothetical and of course academics have completely gone out the window at this point and it's about the money. Obviously giving the "save the marriage babies ie CSh_t u" a smaller cut of the finances. Once every 8 yrs USC has to play in Laramie..everyone will watch to see that scrimmage and Wyo will fill the stadium which throws them a bone. With 4 six team pods created the P12 with it's own network could have two semi-final games then the championship game (a playoff within a conference). There's already some bad blood between every one of these in this pod example.
I need a hobby
CU
CSh_t u
Wyo
AFA
Utah
BYU
 
2 things:

- understand Tramel as a journalist; throw sh.it against the wall and see what sticks. Reader responses are usually more intelligent than the original article.

- (at least down here) WVU is known as the place juco's go when the can't get into kjsu
 
Always BUFF said:
Let's say for the sake of argument The P12 performs it's due diligence regarding TV markets West of Colo. (probably already done) that contain within them those colleges one step down from P5. IE. Wyo, AFA, UNM, C..spit U & Boise S (not including BYU).
Derive this scenario (1 pod of possibly 4) total designed to own the West..it's a hypothetical and of course academics have completely gone out the window at this point and it's about the money. Obviously giving the "save the marriage babies ie CSh_t u" a smaller cut of the finances. Once every 8 yrs USC has to play in Laramie..everyone will watch to see that scrimmage and Wyo will fill the stadium which throws them a bone. With 4 six team pods created the P12 with it's own network could have two semi-final games then the championship game (a playoff within a conference). There's already some bad blood between every one of these in this pod example.
I need a hobby
CU
CSh_t u
Wyo
AFA
Utah
BYU
Click to expand...

Kizla would love you.

Revive the old WAC and put CU in it, never going to happen.

AFA isn't interested in playing P5 football, CSU as has been discussed before is a non-starter, the PAC12 presidents would require a federal court order to even consider BYU, Wyoming's next conference move is to the Big Sky and FCS.

Utah doesn't want to share PAC membership with BYU and both they and CU would strongly oppose the rest of this. Ain't happnin'!
 
These presidents in their elitist towers need to take a chill pill. Unless a school has no academic backbone (KState JC, Boise, WVU), who cares if a university isn’t Tier 1 or AAU? My wife does some pretty sophisticated post-grad research for CU, and when she collaborates outside of CU, not once has she been advised to collaborate with Pac-12 universities. They could care less. If another prof from the SEC wants to work on a study or paper, they will just do it. Her relationships are formed at industry conferences, not at athletic tailgates. Why an athletic conference should have to select folks based on their post-graduate ranking is beyond me. Again, so long as they aren’t a dumpster fire. Does Northwestern’s brand take a hit because Nebraska lost its AAU standing? Does anyone think less of Stanford grads because the Oregon schools are also in the Pac? Did CU have to quit claiming one of its astronauts because we used to slum it with K-State?

This is just a craptastic pissing contest by presidents of universities. Great, the Pac will only add UT and OU due to their “academic standing”. Total farce. They would add them because they are football powerhouses.

And needless to say, most Buff athletes aren’t graduating from CU’s engineering school, or graduating pre-med. They graduate from weak majors, just like every other athletic program in the country.

If you want to be surrounded by academic snobs, go join Mensa.
 
Buffs35 said:
These presidents in their elitist towers need to take a chill pill. Unless a school has no academic backbone (KState JC, Boise, WVU), who cares if a university isn’t Tier 1 or AAU? My wife does some pretty sophisticated post-grad research for CU, and when she collaborates outside of CU, not once has she been advised to collaborate with Pac-12 universities. They could care less. If another prof from the SEC wants to work on a study or paper, they will just do it. Her relationships are formed at industry conferences, not at athletic tailgates. Why an athletic conference should have to select folks based on their post-graduate ranking is beyond me. Again, so long as they aren’t a dumpster fire. Does Northwestern’s brand take a hit because Nebraska lost its AAU standing? Does anyone think less of Stanford grads because the Oregon schools are also in the Pac? Did CU have to quit claiming one of its astronauts because we used to slum it with K-State?

This is just a craptastic pissing contest by presidents of universities. Great, the Pac will only add UT and OU due to their “academic standing”. Total farce. They would add them because they are football powerhouses.

And needless to say, most Buff athletes aren’t graduating from CU’s engineering school, or graduating pre-med. They graduate from weak majors, just like every other athletic program in the country.

If you want to be surrounded by academic snobs, go join Mensa.
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I agree with you. Take the academic politics out of it and we probably see Boise State + San Diego State join the conference with UNLV + New Mexico the likely next round to get to 16.

BSU & SDSU get unequal shares from the MWC because of their value, they have national reps, and they are respected enough that the Big East wanted them despite the locations & the Big 12 is strongly considering them.

On the football field and basketball court, you can't tell me that the Pac-12 becomes less competitive and less valuable as a Pac-14 with those schools.
 
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For my own ****s and giggles, I thought I'd create my own Awesome Pac-12 Conference of 16 teams, only including P5 teams west of the Mississippi. I allowed for dropping schools, which allowed me to ditch WSU and OSU. I was disappointed to realize that Wisconsin isn't west of the river.

Back from current Pac:
  • UW, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, ASU, Arizona, Utah, CU
Additions:
  • LSU (That would be fun!)
  • Texas
  • Oklahoma
  • Mizzou
  • Nebraska
  • Minnesota
Left out:
  • Kansas/Arkansas/Texas schools/Okie State (Crappy destinations)
  • Iowa (same thing, and I'd imagine Minnesota could improve the football program if they were the only Pac team in the region.)
Carry on.
 
Kizla is full of S__t like a Christmas goose...I was thinking in terms of now and 10 yrs from now in passing. Regional broadcasts to draw mass viewership and own the West. Who wouldn't root for Utah State up against UCLA in 2026 in a championship no less? I think it would be a riot and lest we forget it wasn't that long ago that Utah pulled Alabama's gym shorts down in front of a national audience and there's my favorite Boise's win over OU..sure made me laugh my ass off.
I get your points and they are well taken...
I have few doubts that some day Chevy, Ford, Sony...may well have a say in this cluster.
 
Always BUFF said:
Kizla is full of S__t like a Christmas goose...I was thinking in terms of now and 10 yrs from now in passing. Regional broadcasts to draw mass viewership and own the West. Who wouldn't root for Utah State up against UCLA in 2026 in a championship no less? I think it would be a riot and lest we forget it wasn't that long ago that Utah pulled Alabama's gym shorts down in front of a national audience and there's my favorite Boise's win over OU..sure made me laugh my ass off.
I get your points and they are well taken...
I have few doubts that some day Chevy, Ford, Sony...may well have a say in this cluster.
Click to expand...

Not sure if you are serious.

Utah State drawing mass viewership?

The entire state of Utah has less population that some suburbs of LA, Texas has how many cities with a population bigger than the entire state of Utah.

There is a reason why media payouts to MWC teams average about $3.5 million per year and the payouts to the P5 schools approach 10 times that. It is because nobody watches the MWC schools. Sure their highly loyal fans do but there just aren't enough of them and they could double their population and still not have enough.

Is. Not. Happening!!
 
MtnBuff said:
Not sure if you are serious.

Utah State drawing mass viewership?

The entire state of Utah has less population that some suburbs of LA, Texas has how many cities with a population bigger than the entire state of Utah.

There is a reason why media payouts to MWC teams average about $3.5 million per year and the payouts to the P5 schools approach 10 times that. It is because nobody watches the MWC schools. Sure their highly loyal fans do but there just aren't enough of them and they could double their population and still not have enough.

Is. Not. Happening!!
Click to expand...
Not to mention that Utah State's football/basketball programs are a distant third in their own state (which has a pretty small population to start with), and is located in the bustling metropolis of Logan.

I love Chuckie Keaton as much as the next guy, but Utah State is pretty much a prototypical MWC school.
 
Denver_sc said:
Not to mention that Utah State's football/basketball programs are a distant third in their own state (which has a pretty small population to start with), and is located in the bustling metropolis of Logan.

I love Chuckie Keaton as much as the next guy, but Utah State is pretty much a prototypical MWC school.
Click to expand...

This is the problem with Always BUFF's proposal. All the schools he is proposing to add are prototypical MWC schools. They simply don't move the needle outside of their small fan bases.

Most of the rest of the country doesn't know if they are FCS or even exist. No value added to the conference financially.
 
http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...ed-in-the-ultimate-realignment-bracket-081516
this article made be chuckle -

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 Colorado State



Vegas installs the Cougars as 14-point favorites. Colorado State earns some support early due to concerns from schools like Kansas State about hurting their own ability to recruit in Houston. But then, the presidents realize how humiliating it will look to have ultimately traded Colorado for Colorado State.



Winner: Houston
 
I used to work with Joan, who does a nice job diving into the history of the Big 12 and Texas' Pac 10 aspirations. Worth the whole read if you have time. **** Bailer!

DeLoss Dodds, Texas athletic director from 1981–2014: Money drives a lot of decisions. We knew from watching and listening and negotiating TV contracts that staying where we were was not going to work.

Slocum: I can remember going to a [coaches] meeting in Florida in the early '90s, and people saying that Texas was already talking to the Pac-10.

Cunningham: As it turns out, that was not viable. The Pac-10, we had a problem with the president of Stanford, who [in 1990] basically killed [our deal to join the conference] and then came back a few weeks later and said they'd really like to have Texas. We said, well thanks a lot. We'd taken all the political heat at that stage for [trying to leave the SWC], and I had no interest in going through that again.

http://www.campusrush.com/big-12-conference-oral-history-swc-merger-1974972078.html
 
I didn't read the methodology yet, but am not shocked that they rank their conference ahead of everyone except the 2 obvious leaders. Are they trying to prove relevance? I ask because I seem to have read a lot that suggests this expansion is motivated by panic.
 
Attendance will be an issue in the Pac-12 for a while and that was the only real red flag with the Pac-12.
 
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