Polls, rankings and bowl projections

[hawg1]

I don’t see how a 12-1 UDub goes ahead of 12-1 SEC CCG loser (especially if it is close) when the 5th best team in the SEC beat the P12 champion?

That will be a big hurdle for the Committee IMO.

The best chance for a P12 CFP team is for Oregon to run the table.

 

[BuffUp]

I don’t see how a 12-1 UDub goes ahead of 12-1 SEC CCG loser (especially if it is close) when the 5th best team in the SEC beat the P12 champion?

That will be a big hurdle for the Committee IMO.

The best chance for a P12 CFP team is for COLORADO to run the table.

Fxd

 

[onealcd]

I don’t see how a 12-1 UDub goes ahead of 12-1 SEC CCG loser (especially if it is close) when the 5th best team in the SEC beat the P12 champion?

That will be a big hurdle for the Committee IMO.

The best chance for a P12 CFP team is for Oregon to run the table.

One is a champion and one isn't. One team lost week one and the other lost a day before selection. Washington basically played on the road at Auburn so it wouldn't be a huge deal at all.

 

[hawg1]

Fxd

Thanks. Are you saying greater than 0.0?

 

[hawg1]

One is a champion and one isn't. One team lost week one and the other lost a day before selection. Washington basically played on the road at Auburn so it wouldn't be a huge deal at all.

Thanks. Those are good points.
You think UDub beats Oregon this week?

 

[onealcd]

Thanks. Those are good points.
You think UDub beats Oregon this week?

I am not sure, I want to think so but that UW offense just doesn't seem to come through when they need to. I would take them in Seattle but probably going Oregon this week.

 

[jizzrag85]

I am not sure, I want to think so but that UW offense just doesn't seem to come through when they need to. I would take them in Seattle but probably going Oregon this week.

Hopefully Oregon does not win. But if anyone has to win out and get in the CFP I hope it’s them. That way it will be so much sweeter when they are completely embarrassed and out classed by the other teams and it will make my joy that much greater. It’s like watching New England lose the super bowl, it warms my heart.

 

[Ruckus]

Hopefully Oregon does not win. But if anyone has to win out and get in the CFP I hope it’s them. That way it will be so much sweeter when they are completely embarrassed and out classed by the other teams and it will make my joy that much greater. It’s like watching New England lose the super bowl, it warms my heart.

Wat? No, **** Oregon, I hope they lose every game the rest of the year.

 

[onealcd]

Wat? No, **** Oregon, I hope they lose every game the rest of the year.

Yeah Oregon is the worst.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

How would Oregon have a better shot than UW if they ran the table? **** that. How would Oregon have a better shot than if they ran the table than if Colorado ran the table and, you know, actually didn't have a loss on the season?

 

[Denver_sc]

I don’t see how a 12-1 UDub goes ahead of 12-1 SEC CCG loser (especially if it is close) when the 5th best team in the SEC beat the P12 champion?

That will be a big hurdle for the Committee IMO.

The best chance for a P12 CFP team is for Oregon to run the table.

Actually, I've been thinking about this- it's actually best for the P12 if both CU and UO run the table until the P12 Championship. In that scenario, both are likely in the top 5-7 teams (in a worst case scenario where many other undefeated teams keep winning), so it would likely guarantee the winner a shot in the CFP.

As to all this discussion about "would an undefeated CU make the playoff" the answer is undoubtedly yes if you look at the history. in 2017, there were no undefeated P5 teams at the time of the final CFP standings. In 2016, there was one (Bama). In 2015- one (Clemson). In 2014, also one (FSU). 2013- one (FSU). On and on it goes; you have to go all the way back to 2010 to find even 2 P5 teams that were undefeated at the end of the regular season, and there has only been one instance since the inception of the BCS system where there were 3 (2004, where Auburn, Oklahoma, and USC were all undefeated). What do they have in common? Only twice- FSU in 2014 and Auburn in 2004- were any of those teams ranked lower than 2nd to end the season. Both those teams were 3rd and would have been in the CFP anyway. In other words- given that there can be a maximum of 6 undefeated P5 teams at the end of the season, this would have to be the most unusual season in college football history for there to be enough for CU to be snubbed.

In fact, there have only been a handful of times (9) that a G5 team finished undefeated in that timeframe, and some of them would have even recieved CFP invites if you applied it to the BCS final standings (2009 TCU and 2009 Cincy, 2010 TCU).

 

[ahoelsken]

Hopefully Oregon does not win. But if anyone has to win out and get in the CFP I hope it’s them. That way it will be so much sweeter when they are completely embarrassed and out classed by the other teams and it will make my joy that much greater. It’s like watching New England lose the super bowl, it warms my heart.

No. Root for the North team in a game like that that we play.

 

[hawg1]

Actually, I've been thinking about this- it's actually best for the P12 if both CU and UO run the table until the P12 Championship. In that scenario, both are likely in the top 5-7 teams (in a worst case scenario where many other undefeated teams keep winning), so it would likely guarantee the winner a shot in the CFP.

As to all this discussion about "would an undefeated CU make the playoff" the answer is undoubtedly yes if you look at the history. in 2017, there were no undefeated P5 teams at the time of the final CFP standings. In 2016, there was one (Bama). In 2015- one (Clemson). In 2014, also one (FSU). 2013- one (FSU). On and on it goes; you have to go all the way back to 2010 to find even 2 P5 teams that were undefeated at the end of the regular season, and there has only been one instance since the inception of the BCS system where there were 3 (2004, where Auburn, Oklahoma, and USC were all undefeated). What do they have in common? Only twice- FSU in 2014 and Auburn in 2004- were any of those teams ranked lower than 2nd to end the season. Both those teams were 3rd and would have been in the CFP anyway. In other words- given that there can be a maximum of 6 undefeated P5 teams at the end of the season, this would have to be the most unusual season in college football history for there to be enough for CU to be snubbed.

In fact, there have only been a handful of times (9) that a G5 team finished undefeated in that timeframe, and some of them would have even recieved CFP invites if you applied it to the BCS final standings (2009 TCU and 2009 Cincy, 2010 TCU).

Attrition has to happen for an undefeated CU team to make the playoff under the scenario I described originally.

Good info above.

 

[Buffskier]

Why the **** would we want Oregon to win.

Go UW in every game except next weekend.

 

[hawg1]

How would Oregon have a better shot than UW if they ran the table? **** that. How would Oregon have a better shot than if they ran the table than if Colorado ran the table and, you know, actually didn't have a loss on the season?

Oregon would have a better shot than UDub because they would have beaten UDub if they run the table. And vice versa.

CU would have a better shot than Oregon if both run the table and CU beats Oregon in CCG.

Hope I didn’t intimate otherwise.

 

[ahoelsken]

Why the **** would we want Oregon to win.

Go UW in every game except next weekend.

Yes! My thought here with respect to both the CFP and the Rose Bowl conversations.

 

[hawg1]

Why the **** would we want Oregon to win.

Go UW in every game except next weekend.

You want CU to beat UDub next weekend. And then Oregon in the CCG. Thus you want Oregon to win this weekend. Gives CU a chance to build their resume.

A win over Oregon and UDub would be better than two wins over UDub, assuming CU runs the table.

 

[ahoelsken]

You want CU to beat UDub next weekend. And then Oregon in the CCG. Thus you want Oregon to win this weekend. Gives CU a chance to build their resume.

A win over Oregon and UDub would be better than two wins over UDub, assuming CU runs the table.

I think its too early to argue that-Oregon did NOTHING OOC, and they're one of the few teams who played a weaker OOC in FBS than we did. I wouldn't be shocked to see a difference in how the AP/Coaches poll perceives them (to me we should be ranked ahead of Oregon right now) versus how the committee does on October 30 when their first set of rankings comes out.

 

[hawg1]

I think its too early to argue that-Oregon did NOTHING OOC, and they're one of the few teams who played a weaker OOC in FBS than we did. I wouldn't be shocked to see a difference in how the AP/Coaches poll perceives them (to me we should be ranked ahead of Oregon right now) versus how the committee does on October 30 when their first set of rankings comes out.

Agree. But that’s not my argument.

If Oregon beats UDub, where you think Committee ranks them?

I don’t care about or look at polls from
coaches or AP.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

Oregon would have a better shot than UDub because they would have beaten UDub if they run the table. And vice versa.

CU would have a better shot than Oregon if both run the table and CU beats Oregon in CCG.

Hope I didn’t intimate otherwise.

You said "the best chance for a Pac 12 team to make the CFP is for Oregon to run the table". Wouldn't UW running the table put them in the same situation and wouldn't CU running the table and being 13-0 be better than either of those? I do agree that it would help CU's case if CU and Oregon both ran the table and CU beat them in the CCG as that would add at least two top 10 (?) wins to CU's schedule.

 

[SerenityBuff]

**** Oregon.

 

[ahoelsken]

Agree. But that’s not my argument.

If Oregon beats UDub, where you think Committee ranks them?

I don’t care about or look at polls from
coaches or AP.

I'd guess 11-14. Their resume would be the win over UW, and not much else. Sure, the Cal win is nice, but that's a team that probably won't be much better than the ASU team we beat Saturday.

 

[hawg1]

You said "the best chance for a Pac 12 team to make the CFP is for Oregon to run the table". Wouldn't UW running the table put them in the same situation and wouldn't CU running the table and being 13-0 be better than either of those? I do agree that it would help CU's case if CU and Oregon both ran the table and CU beat them in the CCG as that would add at least two top 10 (?) wins to CU's schedule.

I think a one loss Oregon team who beat UDub and lost an OT game to Stanford after substantial game control would have a better chance than a one loss UDub that lost to an OK SEC team, m albeit early and essentially on the load.

A 13-0 CU would have a better chance than a 12-1 OU or UDub. While it might be fun to think about it, I don’t see it. ESPN runs the simulations every day. Day before yesterday, an undefeated CU was 3/20,000, yesterday it was 1/20,000.

Given these odds, I still think a 12-1 OU is the best shot for a P12 CFP team.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I'd guess 11-14. Their resume would be the win over UW, and not much else. Sure, the Cal win is nice, but that's a team that probably won't be much better than the ASU team we beat Saturday.

If CU and Oregon win this weekend, I think the Pac 12 has 3 teams in the top 15. Oregon continuing to run the table to the CCG, and CU doing the same would have CU with a win over top 15 UW and then almost assuredly a top 7-8 Oregon team. Beating two highly ranked teams at different times would be better than beating one highly ranked team twice.

 

[hawg1]

I'd guess 11-14. Their resume would be the win over UW, and not much else. Sure, the Cal win is nice, but that's a team that probably won't be much better than the ASU team we beat Saturday.[/

Yep. Seems about right.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I think a one loss Oregon team who beat UDub and lost an OT game to Stanford after substantial game control would have a better chance than a one loss UDub that lost to an OK SEC team, m albeit early and essentially on the load.

A 13-0 CU would have a better chance than a 12-1 OU or UDub. While it might be fun to think about it, I don’t see it. ESPN runs the simulations every day. Day before yesterday, an undefeated CU was 3/20,000, yesterday it was 1/20,000.

Given these odds, I still think a 12-1 OU is the best shot for a P12 CFP team.

So your opinion comes down to the fact that you think Oregon is more likely to run the table than CU. How come? They both play UW, Oregon gets them at home, and after this week, Oregon and CU have the same common opponents, except CU gets Cal and Oregon get ASU. Do you believe Oregon is better than CU? If so, based on what?

 

[Buffnik]

Actually, I've been thinking about this- it's actually best for the P12 if both CU and UO run the table until the P12 Championship. In that scenario, both are likely in the top 5-7 teams (in a worst case scenario where many other undefeated teams keep winning), so it would likely guarantee the winner a shot in the CFP.

As to all this discussion about "would an undefeated CU make the playoff" the answer is undoubtedly yes if you look at the history. in 2017, there were no undefeated P5 teams at the time of the final CFP standings. In 2016, there was one (Bama). In 2015- one (Clemson). In 2014, also one (FSU). 2013- one (FSU). On and on it goes; you have to go all the way back to 2010 to find even 2 P5 teams that were undefeated at the end of the regular season, and there has only been one instance since the inception of the BCS system where there were 3 (2004, where Auburn, Oklahoma, and USC were all undefeated). What do they have in common? Only twice- FSU in 2014 and Auburn in 2004- were any of those teams ranked lower than 2nd to end the season. Both those teams were 3rd and would have been in the CFP anyway. In other words- given that there can be a maximum of 6 undefeated P5 teams at the end of the season, this would have to be the most unusual season in college football history for there to be enough for CU to be snubbed.

In fact, there have only been a handful of times (9) that a G5 team finished undefeated in that timeframe, and some of them would have even recieved CFP invites if you applied it to the BCS final standings (2009 TCU and 2009 Cincy, 2010 TCU).

tl;dr version: In the 4 years of the CFP system, we have had a total of 3 undefeated P5 teams and they all made the playoff (3/16 teams that made it). Going back in recent history, you have to go to the days before every conference was playing a championship game to find a season that had more than 2 undefeated P5 teams. If CU is undefeated, the Buffs are in.

 

[ahoelsken]

You said "the best chance for a Pac 12 team to make the CFP is for Oregon to run the table". Wouldn't UW running the table put them in the same situation and wouldn't CU running the table and being 13-0 be better than either of those? I do agree that it would help CU's case if CU and Oregon both ran the table and CU beat them in the CCG as that would add at least two top 10 (?) wins to CU's schedule.

One. Washington would drop to around 13-15 if they lost this weekend. To me, we should be rooting for the people we know we're going to play. Root for Washington in every game but next weekend and maybe the Apple Cup. Root for Washington State between now and November 10. Root for Utah. It makes more sense to me to hope that WSU and Utah (both of whom should be if they don't drop games between now and then) are ranked when they'll visit next month right now than root for Oregon hoping for a hypothetical Pac 12 championship date with them.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

One. Washington would drop to around 13-15 if they lost this weekend. To me, we should be rooting for the people we know we're going to play. Root for Washington in every game but next weekend and maybe the Apple Cup. Root for Washington State between now and November 10. Root for Utah. It makes more sense to me to hope that WSU and Utah are ranked when they'll visit next month right now than root for Oregon hoping for a hypothetical Pac 12 championship date with them.

If we're talking about the CFP, the only thing that matters is the Pac 12 Championship Game. Literally. If CU doesn't get there and win, it won't matter. That's why I would say rooting to play the highest ranked team in THAT game makes the most sense.

 

[ahoelsken]

If we're talking about the CFP, the only thing that matters is the Pac 12 Championship Game. Literally. If CU doesn't get there and win, it won't matter. That's why I would say rooting to play the highest ranked team in THAT game makes the most sense.

Either way, thats Washington.