Recruiting rankings are becoming less important

[Big Jim]

Lane Kiffin has some interesting points as described in this article.

https://sports.yahoo.com/lane-kiffin-ole-miss-football-213928441.html


- He purposely signed a small prep class that left a number of scholarships available.
- He is not going to take any "reaches" on these kids, those days are done.
- He said the transfer portal has two more waves coming up; after the bowl games and after spring practice.


If Kiffin's plan is sound, and he has proven over-and-over that he is a leader in this area, then there will be some major impacts to high school recruiting.

- Colleges will start to sign less high school players each year. They need the scholarships to bring in free agents.
- Lower numbers of kids being signed means recruiting of prep players will have less impact on the roster quality.
- Less impact on roster quality means recruiting rankings will be less impactful as a measuring stick of team talent.
- Lower division teams should see an influx of talent as they can pick up better players than in the past, players that would have been "reach" signings by P5/G5 schools.

 

[Darth Snow]

Lane Kiffin has some interesting points as described in this article.

https://sports.yahoo.com/lane-kiffin-ole-miss-football-213928441.html


- He purposely signed a small prep class that left a number of scholarships available.
- He is not going to take any "reaches" on these kids, those days are done.
- He said the transfer portal has two more waves coming up; after the bowl games and after spring practice.


If Kiffin's plan is sound, and he has proven over-and-over that he is a leader in this area, then there will be some major impacts to high school recruiting.

- Colleges will start to sign less high school players each year. They need the scholarships to bring in free agents.
- Lower numbers of kids being signed means recruiting of prep players will have less impact on the roster quality.
- Less impact on roster quality means recruiting rankings will be less impactful as a measuring stick of team talent.
- Lower division teams should see an influx of talent as they can pick up better players than in the past, players that would have been "reach" signings by P5/G5 schools.

Prep rankings will decrease in importance, but still be very important.

Plus, there will be transfer class rankings too. Just more complicated. Draft AND free agency.

Lane's not being that much smarter than anyone else about his approach, he's just not as angry about it and can articulate the new reality. That tidbit about no more reaches is brutally honest.

Most teams are saving spots for transfers now. Even CU. But we are still taking reaches.

 

[hokiehead]

Lane Kiffin has some interesting points as described in this article.

https://sports.yahoo.com/lane-kiffin-ole-miss-football-213928441.html


- He purposely signed a small prep class that left a number of scholarships available.
- He is not going to take any "reaches" on these kids, those days are done.
- He said the transfer portal has two more waves coming up; after the bowl games and after spring practice.


If Kiffin's plan is sound, and he has proven over-and-over that he is a leader in this area, then there will be some major impacts to high school recruiting.

- Colleges will start to sign less high school players each year. They need the scholarships to bring in free agents.
- Lower numbers of kids being signed means recruiting of prep players will have less impact on the roster quality.
- Less impact on roster quality means recruiting rankings will be less impactful as a measuring stick of team talent.
- Lower division teams should see an influx of talent as they can pick up better players than in the past, players that would have been "reach" signings by P5/G5 schools.

good stuff.

my primary takeaway is that the relaxed transfer rules are leading to the schools that don't realistically compete for the CFP to become a sort of development league for the ten schools that do.

 

[Big Jim]

good stuff.

my primary takeaway is that the relaxed transfer rules are leading to the schools that don't realistically compete for the CFP to become a sort of development league for the ten schools that do.

I agree with you and would add that non-top 10 P5 schools should benefit from having access to 2nd and 3rd string players from the top schools that can help out the CU's of the world. Players that blossom at the G5 level and below should be moving up to non-top 10 P5 schools as well. I can imagine a scenario where schools like CU can actually benefit in free agency by building a deeper roster of talent even if they lose the top end player or two each season.

College free agency is much more open and unrestrictive than NFL free agency. With no collective bargaining agreement in place, yet, the college players can move almost at-will. Teams can reinvent themselves much faster, turning a losing program into a winning program and fast. Coaches like Kiffin that embrace free agency are much more likely to be winners than coaches like Swinney that are fighting against it.

 

[skibum]

I agree with you and would add that non-top 10 P5 schools should benefit from having access to 2nd and 3rd string players from the top schools that can help out the CU's of the world. Players that blossom at the G5 level and below should be moving up to non-top 10 P5 schools as well. I can imagine a scenario where schools like CU can actually benefit in free agency by building a deeper roster of talent even if they lose the top end player or two each season.

College free agency is much more open and unrestrictive than NFL free agency. With no collective bargaining agreement in place, yet, the college players can move almost at-will. Teams can reinvent themselves much faster, turning a losing program into a winning program and fast. Coaches like Kiffin that embrace free agency are much more likely to be winners than coaches like Swinney that are fighting against it.

The only speed limit is going to be the "number of new scholarship players per year" that schools are allowed to bring in.

That rule has been effectively waived this year, nominally due to covid, but it will be interesting how firmly it is enforced in future years.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I've been saying for almost two years now that because CU can't and isn't willing to compete with even 2nd tier P5 programs for prep talent, they should be/have been going all in on the portal for half of every year's incoming personnel. That doesn't mean they should be neglecting prep recruiting, but a competent staff at CU would be bringing in a prep class that resembles the top half of this current class (with hopefully a few wins of the Ott and Okunlola variety) and then 9-10 transfers of the Barnes, Shrout and Lamb variety.

 

[Big Jim]

The only speed limit is going to be the "number of new scholarship players per year" that schools are allowed to bring in.

This speed bump has been nullified by Kiffin and likeminded coaches. They are signing less high school players now, leaving scholarships open for transfers. Less and less high school players will be receiving P5/G5 scholarships going forward.

 

[MtnBuff]

I've been saying for almost two years now that because CU can't and isn't willing to compete with even 2nd tier P5 programs for prep talent, they should be/have been going all in on the portal for half of every year's incoming personnel. That doesn't mean they should be neglecting prep recruiting, but a competent staff at CU would be bringing in a prep class that resembles the top half of this current class (with hopefully a few wins of the Ott and Okunlola variety) and then 9-10 transfers of the Barnes, Shrout and Lamb variety.

It isn't going to be the same but one thing will be constant.

Those staffs that are willing to outwork and out compete other programs for talent will win. Those who don't make the commitment will end up with less talent and will lose.

Until CU is willing to commit to winning the battles for talent we will lose more often than not.

 

[skibum]

What's going to be interesting is OL development.

There are *very* few kids that can play OL as true freshmen - at almost any level.

What schools are going to be willing to give scholarships to developing linemen to only see them transfer the moment they start to be productive?

Will we end up where almost all OL prep recruits are PWOs?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

I also believe that veteran college players entering the portal, who aren't among the top players in the country, aren't going to care as much about the NIL stuff as the high school kids coming out, which should bode well for programs like CU who will never be able to compete on the NIL stuff. The Robert Barnes and JT Shrouts of the world want to go to a P5 program where they can play and showcase their abilities with hopes of getting drafted.

 

[Bison]

Recruiting rankings not important? Tell that to some FCS schools LOL.

 

[hokiehead]

Recruiting rankings not important? Tell that to some FCS schools LOL.

'less important' != 'not important'

 

[skibum]

This speed bump has been nullified by Kiffin and likeminded coaches. They are signing less high school players now, leaving scholarships open for transfers. Less and less high school players will be receiving P5/G5 scholarships going forward.

Umm...

You've got a math operations problem* though. Unless the total number of scholarships is shrinking or growing, you *must* have the same number of scholarship players entering the system (ignore movement within the system for a hot second) each year as you do leaving the system.

The number leaving the system as a whole each year (medically retiring, graduating, running out of eligibility, entering the draft, dropping out, etc) isn't really changing. Which means you're going to need the same number entering the system as a whole (getting recruited out of high school).

The math simply doesn't work out for the entirety of the P5 to make up their entire incoming class with only transfers. The only way that could work is if you assume that a metric ****-ton of players are enrolling at the lower levels as walk-ons - and, well, that ain't gonna happen.

(*and a grammar problem, but I'm gonna let it sli--- ****, I can't: *fewer)

 

[Rob DeVere]

It isn't going to be the same but one thing will be constant.

Those staffs that are willing to outwork and out compete other programs for talent will win. Those who don't make the commitment will end up with less talent and will lose.

Until CU is willing to commit to winning the battles for talent we will lose more often than not.

"...to outwork and out compete other programs for talent..." WTF does that even mean???

 

[Agent Dave Kujan]

The problem with the Kiffin approach is that he is going to have cultural issues that can't be foreseen. Team Culture is so important in football and the team that has the best culture will play better in tough situations. Mercenaries can never be counted on to stick with you when the going gets tough and in the SEC the going is always tough. Building a positive culture takes time and needs to start at the freshman level. (I actually think HCKD is doing a pretty good job of this)

You can envision a future where P5 schools circle like vultures above the G5, FCS, and even D2 schools looking for to pick off those players instead of recruiting high school players. I look for those schools to fall flat on their faces

 

[Rob DeVere]

Umm...

You've got a math operations problem* though. Unless the total number of scholarships is shrinking or growing, you *must* have the same number of scholarship players entering the system (ignore movement within the system for a hot second) each year as you do leaving the system.

The number leaving the system as a whole each year (medically retiring, graduating, running out of eligibility, entering the draft, dropping out, etc) isn't really changing. Which means you're going to need the same number entering the system as a whole (getting recruited out of high school).

The math simply doesn't work out for the entirety of the P5 to make up their entire incoming class with only transfers. The only way that could work is if you assume that a metric ****-ton of players are enrolling at the lower levels as walk-ons - and, well, that ain't gonna happen.

(*and a grammar problem, but I'm gonna let it sli--- ****, I can't: *fewer)

The "less" versus "fewer" correct usage is a universal English-speaking world problem! YOU CAN'T WIN! (Drives me crazy listening to "sophisticated", experienced talkers regularly misuse "less" and "fewer"!!!)

 

[skibum]

The "less" versus "fewer" correct usage is a universal English-speaking world problem! YOU CAN'T WIN! (Drives me crazy listening to "sophisticated", experienced talkers regularly misuse "less" and "fewer"!!!)

Merely by generating this type of response

Spoiler

 

[Big Jim]

(*and a grammar problem, but I'm gonna let it sli--- ****, I can't: *fewer)

This is why you can't get laid.

 

[buffaholic]

I agree with you and would add that non-top 10 P5 schools should benefit from having access to 2nd and 3rd string players from the top schools that can help out the CU's of the world. Players that blossom at the G5 level and below should be moving up to non-top 10 P5 schools as well. I can imagine a scenario where schools like CU can actually benefit in free agency by building a deeper roster of talent even if they lose the top end player or two each season.

College free agency is much more open and unrestrictive than NFL free agency. With no collective bargaining agreement in place, yet, the college players can move almost at-will. Teams can reinvent themselves much faster, turning a losing program into a winning program and fast. Coaches like Kiffin that embrace free agency are much more likely to be winners than coaches like Swinney that are fighting against it.

There's no benefit as you go down the pecking order.

At the most elite level, they will flush out some kids who didn't turn out to be as valued as they were out of high school and replace them with new talent, cherry picking from ALL levels below them including P5, G5, and FCS. They get better.

The next level down, might get better if their talent isn't raided from above (so far CU's has not been but others are experiencing it).

But they are most definitely not closing the gap. In fact, any chance of doing so is plugged by top elite filling their holes each and every year.

 

[skibum]

This is why you can't get laid.

 

[hokiehead]

"less vs fewer" is a debate over style; both are grammatically correct as used by @Big Jim

 

[Big Jim]

The next level down, might get better if their talent isn't raided from above (so far CU's has not been but others are experiencing it).

This is why CU can be be a winner relative to other P5 schools at this point in time. CU doesn't have talent that will be raided from above, Rice and Gonzalez are probably the only two players on the roster that qualify. Yet CU is better for bringing in guys like Barnes, Shrout and Lamb. Until CU reaches some sort of balance point CU should be able to "win" the portal maneuverings.

 

[MtnBuff]

"...to outwork and out compete other programs for talent..." WTF does that even mean???

Means it still comes down to who puts the most real emphasis on recruiting.

It's still a matter of selling, doesn't matter if the customer (recruit) is a HS kid or in the portal. Taking the easy ones and claiming you will coach them up is a ticket to losing.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

The problem with the Kiffin approach is that he is going to have cultural issues that can't be foreseen. Team Culture is so important in football and the team that has the best culture will play better in tough situations. Mercenaries can never be counted on to stick with you when the going gets tough and in the SEC the going is always tough. Building a positive culture takes time and needs to start at the freshman level. (I actually think HCKD is doing a pretty good job of this)

You can envision a future where P5 schools circle like vultures above the G5, FCS, and even D2 schools looking for to pick off those players instead of recruiting high school players. I look for those schools to fall flat on their faces

What from the last two years make you think HCKD is doing a pretty good job of culture building?

You are also overrating the need to build a culture with college freshman. Tucker used the transfer portal #relentlessly at Michigan State and won 10 games in his second season. The coach and staff set the tone and build the culture first and foremost, not the players.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

This is why CU can be be a winner relative to other P5 schools at this point in time. CU doesn't have talent that will be raided from above, Rice and Gonzalez are probably the only two players on the roster that qualify. Yet CU is better for bringing in guys like Barnes, Shrout and Lamb. Until CU reaches some sort of balance point CU should be able to "win" the portal maneuverings.

Exactly. We aren't talking about CU going into the portal to acquire the talent to compete for the playoff. We are talking about bringing in guys who have been recruited over at big time programs who can come in and start/contribute here from day one and help them get to 6-8 wins.

 

[BuffsNYC]

"less vs fewer" is a debate over style; both are grammatically correct as used by @Big Jim

false

 

[buffaholic]

This is why CU can be be a winner relative to other P5 schools at this point in time. CU doesn't have talent that will be raided from above, Rice and Gonzalez are probably the only two players on the roster that qualify. Yet CU is better for bringing in guys like Barnes, Shrout and Lamb. Until CU reaches some sort of balance point CU should be able to "win" the portal maneuverings.

CU is better with these additions than without them. But the gap is only going to grow between the CU's and the elite programs that shed us these crumbs. Because they are upgrading as well.

Fast forward and there will be huge disparity in our division whereby we can't dream of anyone winning the PAC12 crown but USC and Oregon.

Are we going to benefit from this more than Utah, ASU, UW, UCLA etc?

I don't see how it does anything but move underachievers down and overachievers up in terms of player personnel, and further widens the gaps. And the only thing to ward it off is not superior evaluation or development but................$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[PAHIBuff]

I would have a lot less heartache if there were fewer posts about less/fewer.

There.

 

[PAHIBuff]

CU is better with these additions than without them. But the gap is only going to grow between the CU's and the elite programs that shed us these crumbs. Because they are upgrading as well.

Fast forward and there will be huge disparity in our division whereby we can't dream of anyone winning the PAC12 crown but USC and Oregon.

Are we going to benefit from this more than Utah, ASU, UW, UCLA etc?

I don't see how it does anything but move underachievers down and overachievers up in terms of player personnel, and further widens the gaps. And the only thing to ward it off is not superior evaluation or development but................$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

IMO it will take about 2-3 years for the Transfer Portal to even out and fall in popularity as a lot of kids get stranded there with either no offers or worse options than they had hoped for. It's real situational and will work well for certain guys. Players need to keep in mind that once you're in there you have No Football Scholarship,
you aren't in college, and the time clock is ticking. It will be good for the game when the portal becomes more rational and less an over-crowded circus.

 

[manhattanbuff]

Scouting the portal requires more staff, not less. Colorado would have to significantly ramp up its non coach scouting and relationship development team simply to keep up with other schools. It would have to go even further to excel. If you’re going to take fewer prep players, you have a nonexistent margin of error (i.e. your prep player average would need to be in the high 80s, low 90s). Color me skeptical.