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Relationship between team level recruiting, coaching and Winning %

'Tini said:
You've got CSU and Sacramento State that should have been wins with decent coaching and of course WSU and then there was Utah. In the Utah game we had a 28-20 lead heading into the 4th and that kick return was the pivotal moment in the game that swong the momentum in Utah's favor. So either 3-9 or 4-8 is what I believe the record should have been last year seeing as how we blew 3 decent sized leads last season.
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If you're counting the coulda', woulda', shoulda' games, we shoulda lost against Washington St. I'm sure their fans are counting it that way.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
If you're counting the coulda', woulda', shoulda' games, we shoulda lost against Washington St. I'm sure their fans are counting it that way.
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Very possible, which is why I said 3-9. Lot of shoulda, woulda, coulda games but we had excellent chances to win three other games last year only to piss them away for a long list of reasons such as turnovers and bad coaching.
 
Haven't followed this thread at all. Couldn't you say that those stats might be a "chicken and egg" argument? In other words, our hope is that MacIntyre will win with mediocre recruits which will lead to above average recruiting. Right?
 
Why does everyone assume that there is one reason why we have been bad lately? We have had poor recruiting, poor coaching, and we have played in two tough conferences with for the most part tough non conference games. The relationship between all of those is a very low losing percentage. On the chart from the OP I bet we are the team right in the middle closest to the bottom. Are people interpreting the chart as to if you are above the trend line you have good coaching?
 
It is recruiting, it is coaching, it is lack of administrative support, it is a very fickle fan base, it is being in a state with lots of distractions including pro sports and the mountains, it is playing in a tough conference (i.e. regularly challenging strength of schedule), it is a series of injuries and attrition.

But in the end, better recruiting and better coaching would solve most of our problems.
 
It is nice to hear we should always win every close game. Crazy theory, but I like it.
 
That's how you decide good teams and bad teams. If/when we get better, I won't apologize for close wins (and even good teams have several).
 
'Tini said:
No but we shouldn't blow 75% of them in one season
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And frankly CSU and Sac State shouldn't have been close. We should have beaten each of those soundly. I think that with any kind of decent coaching we beat CSU by 10-14 and Sac State should have been a game where our subs got to finish the game.
 
MtnBuff said:
And frankly CSU and Sac State shouldn't have been close. We should have beaten each of those soundly. I think that with any kind of decent coaching we beat CSU by 10-14 and Sac State should have been a game where our subs got to finish the game.
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Exactly
 
I suppose you could make an argument we gave CSU the game (even if they beat us up in the second half), but Sacromento State just straight up outplayed us. Does not exactly qualify as a game we "gave away".
 
'Tini said:
no it wouldn't, it would be the record that embree should have had the last 2yrs
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fify

Our team was emotionally defeated the last two years. We gave away CSU, Sac St and I felt UA until the 4th, last year(our worst ever). That's 4-8, with terrible coaches and a deflated team. z

4-8 is no better than last year imo. I am willing to take baby steps, only because we have been so ****ing terrible. But this is not a success considering our ultimate goals.

Maybe I'm crazy, I'm usually a pessimist, but I have a good feeling about this staff.
 
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Duff Man said:
I suppose you could make an argument we gave CSU the game (even if they beat us up in the second half), but Sacromento State just straight up outplayed us. Does not exactly qualify as a game we "gave away".
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Our talent was good enough that with decent coaching Sac State would have never been in that game. Instead with our coaching we were the team that didn't believe we had a chance.
 
Duff Man said:
I suppose you could make an argument we gave CSU the game (even if they beat us up in the second half), but Sacromento State just straight up outplayed us. Does not exactly qualify as a game we "gave away".
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Yet if Brown could have figured out a defense to stop a slant pass we win that game. It looked at that point like the coaches had already lost the team.
 
MtnBuff said:
Our talent was good enough that with decent coaching Sac State would have never been in that game. Instead with our coaching we were the team that didn't believe we had a chance.
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I watched that game and came away thinking Sac St. actually had some decent offensive players. But that's just me.
 
Duff Man said:
I watched that game and came away thinking Sac St. actually had some decent offensive players. But that's just me.
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Yeah, we were just so clearly beaten in that one. Regardless who it is, that's one I have trouble putting in the "shoulda won" category. They straight beat us.
 
Duff Man said:
I watched that game and came away thinking Sac St. actually had some decent offensive players. But that's just me.
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Sac State had some decent players. They had a few who were better than some of the guys we were playing. Overall though they were still an FCS team. Most of their players didn't have any business beating our guys play after play.

What they did have was a plan that they could execute and that they believed in. What we had was a staff and team that was unable or unwilling to make the simplest adjustments to stop them. It didn't take long into the game before it became a situation where they believed and we didn't.

This was the same reason why we got destroyed by Fresno. Fresno was a better team that Sac State but no way in the world should we have lost to Fresno by the marging we did. No way in the world they should be putting 70 points on the board against us but we were out of that game before it ever started.
 
MtnBuff said:
Sac State had some decent players. They had a few who were better than some of the guys we were playing. Overall though they were still an FCS team. Most of their players didn't have any business beating our guys play after play.

What they did have was a plan that they could execute and that they believed in. What we had was a staff and team that was unable or unwilling to make the simplest adjustments to stop them. It didn't take long into the game before it became a situation where they believed and we didn't.

This was the same reason why we got destroyed by Fresno. Fresno was a better team that Sac State but no way in the world should we have lost to Fresno by the marging we did. No way in the world they should be putting 70 points on the board against us but we were out of that game before it ever started.
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55-7 at halftime. The sad part is 100 was within range. They could have done it had they chose to do so
 
HUFset said:
Because their players were actually in position.
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Yep. Of course we will never know what would have happened last year with competent coaching, but better coaching would have better schemes, better game time adjustments and better coaching up of athletes, meaning a totally different team than last year. I don't think even Saban would have gotten more than 4-5 wins out of the team last year so I am not saying we'd have been in a bowl.

But I believe if we had a strong coach last year, 3-5 wins was certainly realistic and this year could have been entry into a bowl (i.e. 6 wins). I am not saying that is feasible this year (at least I highly doubt it), but despite less than top 25 talent, I believe a competent coach had he been installed last year along with his staff and his systems and training staff, etc. could have gotten us there this year, barely probably.

So, here is what I am prepared to say, if coaching matters as much as I think it does, and if HCMM is as good of a coach as I think he is, than he should get us to a crap bowl next year and this year see improvement across the board and at least 3 victories (with the roster we have which is an aggregate 60's or so).
 
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boydbuff said:
Yep. Of course we will never know what would have happened last year with competent coaching, but better coaching would have better schemes, better game time adjustments and better coaching up of athletes, meaning a totally different team than last year. I don't think even Saban would have gotten more than 4-5 wins out of the team last year so I am not saying we'd have been in a bowl.

But I believe if we had a strong coach last year, 3-5 wins was certainly realistic and this year could have been entry into a bowl (i.e. 6 wins). I am not saying that is feasible this year (at least I highly doubt it), but despite less than top 25 talent, I believe a competent coach had he been installed last year along with his staff and his systems and training staff, etc. could have gotten us there this year, barely probably.

So, here is what I am prepared to say, if coaching matters as much as I think it does, and if HCMM is as good of a coach as I think he is, than he should get us to a crap bowl next year and this year see improvement across the board and at least 3 victories (with the roster we have which is an aggregate 60's or so).
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Wait, you don't think Saban would have gotten us 4-5 wins last year, but if we had a strong coach then 3-5 wins was "certainly realistic"?
 
SINKRATZ said:
Wait, you don't think Saban would have gotten us 4-5 wins last year, but if we had a strong coach then 3-5 wins was "certainly realistic"?
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I believe that really good to great coaches would have gotten us between 3-5 (Saban, Meyer, closer to 5, and someone like HCMM 3-4).
 
Duff Man said:
I watched that game and came away thinking Sac St. actually had some decent offensive players. But that's just me.
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Our inability to make any defensive or offensive adjustment cost us that game, early before SacSt had sized us up it was looking like an easy win, then they adjusted, and out scored us what 30-14 or something?
 
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