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RPI Watch: 2018 Season
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Its either win out or win the conference tournament.
Mercer and San Diego lost. Oregon, Stanford, and Washington won.
The only games CU-related for today.
Updated the OP. CU's at #64 RPI as of this morning.
This week's games are not going to do a ton for the resume. I'd call them must wins for the post-season.
Cal is a Column 4 game. Simply cannot lose that.
Stanford is a Column 3 game unless they win at Utah and move into Top 75 to become a Column 2 (let's hope).
Some general things with the resume is that CSU's collapse is hurting us but New Mexico has gotten into Column 3 (RPI 160). Keep an eye on Mercer. We need them to jump from 216 into the Top 200 to get that win into Column 3.
This week's games are not going to do a ton for the resume. I'd call them must wins for the post-season.
Cal is a Column 4 game. Simply cannot lose that.
Stanford is a Column 3 game unless they win at Utah and move into Top 75 to become a Column 2 (let's hope).
Some general things with the resume is that CSU's collapse is hurting us but New Mexico has gotten into Column 3 (RPI 160). Keep an eye on Mercer. We need them to jump from 216 into the Top 200 to get that win into Column 3.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
New Mexico plays Boise State at home tonight-that win looks even better if they beat Boise (RPI #35 per CBS). Another one I caught tonight-Michigan State (RPI 21) at Iowa.
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BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
Xavier wins.
Iowa leading MSU by 4 with under 4 minutes to go.
UNM up 11 at half.
Iowa leading MSU by 4 with under 4 minutes to go.
UNM up 11 at half.
Furk. Iowa and the lobos both folded.
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
I think I jinxed 'em
DenverBuff
Douchebag
If we can somehow finish 5 - 1 down the stretch and win a couple pAC 12 tourney games, I like our chances. Very unlikely, but not impossible. Maybe 4 - 2 will be enough? I think 6 more wins total puts us just inside the bubble.
4-2 may get us a buy in the first round of the Pac 12 championship, so in your equation (which may be right) we would have to make the championship game to have a shot.
DenverBuff
Douchebag
I doubt 10 - 8 get us a BYE.
You can't fully rule it out though. Zona is a lock to get a top 4 seed at 9-2. The teams ahead of us are USC (8-3), UDub (7-3), UCLA (7-4) and Furd (7-4). We get all four of those in the next few games - including Furd, and the LA's at home. The LA's have to go to Arizona and do the mountain road trip. Stanford is only at home for the Washingtons and has to do the same two road trips as LA. All three of those schools could stumble to the finish line. UDub is the only one with a good schedule.
FWIW - KenPom projects it as:
* Arizona - 14-4
* USC - 12-6
* UDub - 12-6
* UCLA - 10-8
* Furd - 10-8
* ASU - 10-8
* Utah - 9-9
* Oregon - 9-9
* Colorado - 8-10 (wins vs Furd & Wazzu, losses everywhere else)
* Oregon St - 6-12
* Wazzu - 4-14
* Cal - 3-15
According to that scenario - a 10-8 team would get a bye. CU wins the LA games at home, and suddenly we're in contention as we currently have the tiebreaker over ASU (I believe it's record vs best team in conference after head to head, then it just keeps moving down the standings. ASU is 0-1 against Zona right now with one to play and plays at USC tonight at home and is 0-1 vs Washington for the record).
It's a lot to ask of this team to go 5-1. If it happens, it'll be because of a herculean effort from Kin IMO.
If we're chasing the unicorn dream of a tourney bid - our best bet is to do just well enough to get the five seed. That's our best route to getting two wins in the tourney and padding our wins. That said, I think a tourney bid is a 0.0000001% proposition at best, so I'd be ok getting the top four seed (knock that off the list of criticisms Tad has received) and solidify that NIT bid getting us some more home games.
And before anyone even thinks about arguing it - NCAA Tourney Blow Out Loss >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> NIT Bid
And before anyone even thinks about arguing it - NCAA Tourney Blow Out Loss >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> NIT Bid
NCAA Tourney is better for the health of the program. Think an extended NIT run may be better for the development of this specific set of players. The goal is and should always be NCAA though.
Not a bad point, IMO. Considering the youth of this team, and based on what they've been able to do this year. I'd still like to see them sneak into the tourney because they do have a chance to get hot and be that cinderella team, but a deep NIT run would be far from a disappointment based on where we thought we'd be going into this year. And it would set up the youngsters with a lot of experience going forward.
Again, not saying I prefer NIT; just saying that maybe not as many >>>>>>>>>>'s
NCAA's help with recruiting and national brand too. Plus, it'd be nice for McK & Co to experience a tourney game so next year they won't be as rattled by the bright lights.
TIL that BPI factors in altitude!
Plus, people make this weird assumption that if CU goes to the NIT we'll end up in NYC in the Final Four but if we go to the NCAA it will be a first round blowout when they present the choice between the two.
We don't know ahead of time what the results will be. CU could very easily lose its 1st round NIT game if we're in that tournament. Any team in that tourney would have a shot at beating any team in the NCAA field on a given night. And there have been teams with much less talent than our Buffs have which have gone to the Rd of 32, Sweet 16 or even the Elite 8. Always take your shot on the big stage. I think you were missing some >>>>>>>>>>>>>>s and that many fans are completely misguided on the topic.
Utah handled Stanford tonight. That's probably good for us in the grand scheme of things since we play Utah twice. It also got Furd to 7-5 in Pac-12 play, which means that CU moves into a tie with them if we win Sunday and we'd own the tiebreaker.
And Oregon is killing Washington.
What's becoming very clear is that no one in the Pac-12 is great. Like football this season, there are a lot of "they don't suck" type teams but no teams that are all that good.
San Diego got a much-needed road win at Pepperdine despite 20 points and 5 assists from Aurora, CO's Colbey Ross.
USC at ASU is a damn good game on right now. USC is up 2 with a little over 8 minutes left. If USC wins, they're tied for 1st and ASU is kind of buried at 5-7 in conference play. ASU needs this one badly or they are falling into bubble range. Could get real bad if UCLA beats them this weekend, too.
USC at ASU is a damn good game on right now. USC is up 2 with a little over 8 minutes left. If USC wins, they're tied for 1st and ASU is kind of buried at 5-7 in conference play. ASU needs this one badly or they are falling into bubble range. Could get real bad if UCLA beats them this weekend, too.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
NIT home games aren't gimmes-Remember the year CSU missed out on an NCAA bid? They followed up all the bitching they did by losing their first NIT game. Two other things here-One, KenPom's predictions are pretty funny........Dude really thinks UCLA will win here? I'm seeing 4-2 these last six. I don't think we lose at home again (especially after the Come to Jesus practice we all think came yesterday after the sloppy performance Wednesday), and a win at Washington State. That's 18-12 going into the tourney, and thats a pretty good spot to be in. Two, either an NCAA bid or an NIT bid would be gravy-I think we were all expecting this team to be right around .500, and here we are in early February with a 20 win season still being a possibility.
UCLA just beat zona at zona. Careful, the buff gold glasses are getting a little thick.
Agreed that things are going pretty wellt hough.
Looking at the Pac-12, I really think the Buffs need to be a 4 seed or drop to 7th. Because an extra win against either Cal or Wazzu on a neutral court won't do a thing to improve a tournament resume. Winning a re-match against OSU to erase some of that bad loss in a 7/10 game would have some meaning, though.