Has the 2-10 spots ever been this close this late in to the season since we joined the conference? 9 teams all within 2 games of each other. Buffs win today and they're a game out of the 2nd spot.
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RPI Watch: 2018 Season
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Has the 2-10 spots ever been this close this late in to the season since we joined the conference? 9 teams all within 2 games of each other. Buffs win today and they're a game out of the 2nd spot.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Nice to be in this position this year with this team (in spite of great expectations by some, I think most of us were cautiously optimistic and hoping for signs that 18-19 would be great). Each of the next 5 games will be critical to the off-season. For some reason I’m still cautiously optimistic...but with much more emphasis on the optimistic.
That's what I figured going into it. Then I thought we were in trouble by losing to CSU, San Diego and Iowa. Did beat South Dakota State, but I thought we needed to win 2/4 from those games. Have made up for it a bit in conference play, but the loss at OSU hurts and the loss vs Washington also hurts a bit. A win at Wazzu is necessary this week. Getting a win at UW would erase some of the previous mis-steps on the schedule.
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How would we fare if we played them today? Not all three today, just any one of them today.
We'd roll CSU. Wh should beat Iowa. San Diego I think we'd even beat at their place right now -- they're playing poorly in recent weeks and the Buffs just caught them at the wrong time in each of our seasons, I think. Not as confident that we'd beat South Dakota State if we played them again, though.
Mercer did get its road win last night. Amazing how tightly teams get bunched and how such small things matter. CU moved up a spot to #63 RPI with that one. Mercer also moved a bit to #202, so they're probably going to move into Top 200 and be in a better Quad for us on the team sheet if they can finish this week by beating a horrible VMI at home. 
No games we directly care about today. However, there is one huge game between teams a little above us in RPI...
#60 Maryland at #54 Nebraska. (Home loss for the Nubs would hurt them a lot and I'd rather see the Terps in the Dance)
No games we directly care about today. However, there is one huge game between teams a little above us in RPI...
#60 Maryland at #54 Nebraska. (Home loss for the Nubs would hurt them a lot and I'd rather see the Terps in the Dance)
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Iowa might be a little bit tougher (They took 2nd ranked Michigan State to the wire the other night), but I agree on the other two. I actually think playing WSU or Cal (provided we take care of either) wouldn't be bad enough to where I'd rather be 7th and have to play USC or UCLA if the season ended today. If we're 5th or 6th, we're probably drawing Oregon/Washington or USC in the quarters, and that's a shot at another quality win for the RPI. I still think if we get to 20 wins, we're in the NCAA tournament. We'd have.....7 wins against the RPI top 100 and a top 45-50 RPI? That's going to be pretty hard to pass up for the committee I would think......
JVL
Well-Known Member
Right or wrong, Buffs need to win out in the regular season to garner bubble consideration. Very little respect for PAC 12 ball nationally. ESPN does not even have us on the “bubble watch” list that came out yesterday. Only P12 team that they considered a lock are Miller’s kittens.
DenverBuff
Douchebag
We don’t deserve to be on the bubble at 62 RPI. But I don’t think we need to win out to make the tourney. 4 of our next 5 are against teams with RPI higher than is, and 3 are Top 50 RPI. We win against WSU and 3 of the other 4, we’re on the bubble and likely IN.
JVL
Well-Known Member
I hope you are right, but I don’t see us dancing under the win 4 out of 5 scenario unless Buffs reach the conference championship game. The ESPN bubble watch list doesn’t just include teams currently qualifying as “on the bubble.” It includes all teams in each conference with a shot to make the tourney (based on merit) and identifies the teams with “work left to do.” The Buffs did not even make that list. ESPN is not the gospel but it shows how little respect there is nationally for our program. With only 5 regular season games left, there is no room for error. With that said, none of this will matter when George, Kin and co step up and win the conference tourney.
DenverBuff
Douchebag
We don’t have to win out to garner bubble consideration. We win out and we are IN. Win 4 of 5 and we are likely in. Win 3 of 5 and will “garner bubble consideration”.
I think it's mostly lack of respect for the Pac-12 this year after the horrible non-conference performance by our league. Most can't imagine putting more than 4 P12 teams into the Dance and the Buffs are outside that Top 4 by quite a bit on paper right now. Of course, win at Washington followed by wins against USC & UCLA and the whole narrative changes.
Just found the Warren Nolan site for RPI. This is so much better! Love the format -- and it does the Quads for me so I don't have to figure out what games go in what columns!
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live
Just found the Warren Nolan site for RPI. This is so much better! Love the format -- and it does the Quads for me so I don't have to figure out what games go in what columns!
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live
Cool thanks, good site!
Our neighbors in Greeley coming in at #112 at the moment. Keep on rising!
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
Using ESPN as a basis for your argument is bad.
They're prognosis is based on they're BPI, which is trash.
They're prognosis is based on they're BPI, which is trash.
chitownbuff
Club Member
I’m BPI?
benito
Well-Known Member
Winning out will still require 1-2 wins in the conference tournament to get in. Winning 4 of 5 (19-11, RPI probably in the low 50s) puts CU in the bubble consideration, but requires at least a run to the conference tournament championship to feel good about our chances. Winning 3 of 5 does nothing to move CU to the bubble talk. 18-12, RIP in mid/upper 50s in a lower ranked conference isn't going to impress the committee much at all. Even losing in the conference tourney championship in that scenario probably leaves CU on the outside.
The Pac-12 did not show much in the OOC schedule, and CU didn't help their case with the losses to CSU, Iowa and San Diego.
Yo, @Goose, what Ken pom say? I think people need to be ready for a tough run. 1 and 4 sound more likely than 4 and 1
Since it's KenPom data, I'll share ahead of @Goose joining in. This is the one data point that says CU has a chance to pull off a run to close the season:
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
They should be underdogs in all those games, but really CU has a great shot in four of the last five games. The match ups just don't work out so well against Washington. For CU really to have any shot at the tourney they have to finish 4-1 in conference play and go 2-1 in the PAC tournament. That would put CU at 21-12 and squarely on the bubble. Bad news is that four of the last five games are brutal. Good news is, one more win and one PAC tournament win and CU is definitely in the NIT. I have no problems with the NIT this year. But that means the game against the Cougs is a must win. Lose that game and CU is in a tough place.
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
Anyone here starting to notice that Washington's defensive ranking keeps creeping up and up?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Our biggest problem is we didn't do anything really noteworthy in the OOC-Our two best wins are.........South Dakota State and Northern Colorado?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I feel good about playing USC/UCLA at home. If the team who shows up against Utah and the Arizona schools at home is the one we see, we're going to beat both of them.
1-4.
Sweet. Then we know 1 and 4 won't happen since I said it. Can you please predict 0 and 5?
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Yes, imagine if it were ASU and AZ instead of USC & UCLA. 2 losses would be taken for granted (as they were before we won both...)
Today was kind of ho-hum for CU's strength of schedule until the later games. Xavier won at home vs Seton Hall. Iowa lost at Michigan. As expected.
But in these later games, though mostly not upsets, we're getting a nice bump:
Drake beat Indiana State
Denver beat Omaha
New Mexico beat Utah State
Looks like Air Force is going to come up just short at UNLV, but otherwise a very good night. Currently at #61 and might dip back to #62 when the AFA game closes. but we gained some points in the RPI calculation today. We're at 0.5689 and need that to cross 0.5800 (top 55-ish) to be in Dance range with 0.5900 becoming safe bubble territory (around top 45).
But in these later games, though mostly not upsets, we're getting a nice bump:
Drake beat Indiana State
Denver beat Omaha
New Mexico beat Utah State
Looks like Air Force is going to come up just short at UNLV, but otherwise a very good night. Currently at #61 and might dip back to #62 when the AFA game closes. but we gained some points in the RPI calculation today. We're at 0.5689 and need that to cross 0.5800 (top 55-ish) to be in Dance range with 0.5900 becoming safe bubble territory (around top 45).