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Season predictions

How many games will the Buffs win

  • 0-2

    Votes: 3 1.5%

  • 3-5

    Votes: 54 27.0%

  • 6-7

    Votes: 106 53.0%

  • 8-9

    Votes: 18 9.0%

  • 10+

    Votes: 19 9.5%
  • Total voters
    200
The outcome of the 2016 season for CU is a question of feet.

At QB, there are no Webb feet. A lot depends on the weight baring and pain threshold of the Sefo Lisfranc rehab.

In the red zone, will CU be able to convert on 1st and goal? Empty goal line visits killed CU last year because opposing coaches know more about CU's offensive potential than any of us would like, and can deploy score saving defensive packages with more talent than we'd like to admit.

Will Diego Gonzalez have a magic foot? Special teams play that starts when someone's foot makes contact with the football has not been an advantage for the Buffs for a while.

Finally, at 5328 feet, Boulder's elevation has always been a media talking point. Will the new strength and conditioning and summer workouts enable CU to leverage the elevation in the 4th quarter better this year?

Prediction: bowl game. Mostly because of koolaid and a desire to retire the movie poop thread.
 
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Buff_since76 said:
Honestly I feel that @ Oregon and @ USC are in the could win category
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Considering that they are depending on an FCS transfer from Mt State at QB and are breaking in a new defensive coordinator after giving up 37 points per game (100th in the country)? I'd say, yeah, Oregon could be slated to have a really rough season. Hopefully we can capitalize.
 
CSU 75%
ISU 95%
Mich 10%
Oregon 15%
OSU 75%
USC 10%
ASU 55%
Stanford 10%
UCLA 40%
Arizona 40%
WSU 55%
Utah 60%

Total 5.4 wins. Tried to find another 10 percent chance of winning a game so I could round up. Couldn't find it.
 
I'm not big on trying to analyze CU's chances in any particular game. There's just too much we don't know. Maybe Rosen is hurt when we play UCLA or Falk when we play Wazzu. A lot of things happen during a season.

All I know is that CU is going to try to go 1-0 twelve times this year, they've been able to match up within games decided in the 4th quarter with anyone (except Stanford) the past 2 years, have the most veteran team & QB in every game, and there's no reason to think that any week is going to be a loss.

Odds are they don't get them all. It's almost impossible to do so. In 20 years of coaching, Saban has gone undefeated 1 time.

But I look at a team like Iowa last season. They went 12-2. One player drafted (7th round). But a veteran team. Benefited from a much easier schedule than CU has this year, but still had to win some games people expected them to lose heading into the season. Teams can get on a roll. Why not CU?
 
Buffnik said:
I'm not big on trying to analyze CU's chances in any particular game. There's just too much we don't know. Maybe Rosen is hurt when we play UCLA or Falk when we play Wazzu. A lot of things happen during a season.

All I know is that CU is going to try to go 1-0 twelve times this year, they've been able to match up within games decided in the 4th quarter with anyone (except Stanford) the past 2 years, have the most veteran team & QB in every game, and there's no reason to think that any week is going to be a loss.

Odds are they don't get them all. It's almost impossible to do so. In 20 years of coaching, Saban has gone undefeated 1 time.

But I look at a team like Iowa last season. They went 12-2. One player drafted (7th round). But a veteran team. Benefited from a much easier schedule than CU has this year, but still had to win some games people expected them to lose heading into the season. Teams can get on a roll. Why not CU?
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Send me in coach! Er, I mean, good analysis. :thumbsup:
 
Buffnik said:
I'm not big on trying to analyze CU's chances in any particular game. There's just too much we don't know. Maybe Rosen is hurt when we play UCLA or Falk when we play Wazzu. A lot of things happen during a season.

All I know is that CU is going to try to go 1-0 twelve times this year, they've been able to match up within games decided in the 4th quarter with anyone (except Stanford) the past 2 years, have the most veteran team & QB in every game, and there's no reason to think that any week is going to be a loss.

Odds are they don't get them all. It's almost impossible to do so. In 20 years of coaching, Saban has gone undefeated 1 time.

But I look at a team like Iowa last season. They went 12-2. One player drafted (7th round). But a veteran team. Benefited from a much easier schedule than CU has this year, but still had to win some games people expected them to lose heading into the season. Teams can get on a roll. Why not CU?
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Just use Tini's algorithm. If CU should be favored in the game, even by one point, assign a 100% chance of winning. If they are underdogs, even by 20 points, assign a 50% chance. If you are optimistic enough, you can find 9 wins that way.
 
scoob said:
Just use Tini's algorithm. If CU should be favored in the game, even by one point, assign a 100% chance of winning. If they are underdogs, even by 20 points, assign a 50% chance. If you are optimistic enough, you can find 9 wins that way.
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My point is that on August 8th, I'm not going to pretend to have any idea what the line is going to be on the Arizona game. But people think that they can talk about that game as if there's some factual basis right now on the relative strength of the two teams when they meet on November 12th. From a general roster standpoint, we can look at it. But we're just extrapolating based on which players from last season return for this season. We know nothing about chemistry, health, improvement, impact of coaching & systems changes, or how good any newcomers are.
 
I always do the Wins by if we will be favored or not and by how much - Sure Wins (double digit favorite), Probable wins, Probable losses, Sure Losses (double digit dog).

You have to focus on the probable for how the season goes.
Sure Wins - Idaho.
Sure losses - Michigan, USC, Stanford, UCLA (I know we have come close to the Bruins but they will be heavily favored)
Probable Wins - CSU and Oregon State.
Probable Losses - Arizona, Arizona State, Washington State, Utah, Oregon. (Almost put Oregon in the sure loss category)
Fans seem to overlook the fact that Michigan, USC, Stanford, UCLA and Oregon will all be Top 25 programs this year.

CU needs to win the sure and probable wins - that would give them 3 wins. - they need to find 3 more wins out of the Probable losses. They may get 1. I think that 100 proof Vodka in the Koolaid has many fans underestimating some of our opponents (and at the same time overestimating the Buffs).

The early keys to the season will be how the Buffs play against CSU and Oregon State. They beat both last year but the games were very close. If they struggle in games where they have a talent edge then I expect them to have a rough time where they have a talent deficit.
 
Everybody predicting 3-4 wins again this year is essentially doing so based on how CU has done in prior seasons or simply going off public perception (betting lines) of different matchups. When CU goes into the Big House and beats Michigan to advance to 3-0, how do those "Probable Losses" begin to look? "Sure Losses"? The point is, a probable loss on August 8th, for a game that doesn't take place for 2-3 months is horse****.

OU in 2007 was a "Sure Loss", WVU in 2008 was at least a "Probable Loss" if not "Sure Loss", UGA in 2010 was at least a "Probable Loss". Admittedly, wins like those have ceased the past 5 seasons (thanks Embree, Bohn, Benson, etc), but they will no doubt happen again, and nobody will predict it.
 
At some point CU will start to grab some of those probable losses and convert them to wins. Then we will get more probable wins moving forward. I know we are not top 25 material but we do have a pretty experienced squad with a 4 year starter at QB. I think (and I know that fan is short for fanatic) it will be this year. Getting to 6 wins is not as daunting as in year past. Is it easy, no. But there is a change taking place in attitudes and the talent is getting better.

**** it, we win 10 and are the darling of the college football world again.......
 
TSchekler said:
Everybody predicting 3-4 wins again this year is essentially doing so based on how CU has done in prior seasons or simply going off public perception (betting lines) of different matchups. When CU goes into the Big House and beats Michigan to advance to 3-0, how do those "Probable Losses" begin to look? "Sure Losses"? The point is, a probable loss on August 8th, for a game that doesn't take place for 2-3 months is horse****.

OU in 2007 was a "Sure Loss", WVU in 2008 was at least a "Probable Loss" if not "Sure Loss", UGA in 2010 was at least a "Probable Loss". Admittedly, wins like those have ceased the past 5 seasons (thanks Embree, Bohn, Benson, etc), but they will no doubt happen again, and nobody will predict it.
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It's a ****ing prediction thread! Why is everyone going full Mtn here?
 
scoob said:
It's a ****ing prediction thread! Why is everyone going full Mtn here?
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I generally don't participate in prediction threads and when I do, I don't take them seriously. So that's my bias. When I see people making predictions, I don't think much of it. Have your fun. But when it starts getting into some sort of algorithm that states win probabilities for a November game when we have almost a month of practices before the first game is played, I think it gets really silly.

For the most part, all this preseason stuff represents is an exercise of assuming last year repeats itself with some minor adjustments based on how the QB position looks this year compared to last. That's how Auburn and ASU got so overrated last season and are probably underrated this year.
 
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TSchekler said:
That's nice. It's a good thing games aren't played with probable outcomes...
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TSchekler said:
Everybody predicting 3-4 wins again this year is essentially doing so based on how CU has done in prior seasons or simply going off public perception (betting lines) of different matchups. When CU goes into the Big House and beats Michigan to advance to 3-0, how do those "Probable Losses" begin to look? "Sure Losses"? The point is, a probable loss on August 8th, for a game that doesn't take place for 2-3 months is horse****.

OU in 2007 was a "Sure Loss", WVU in 2008 was at least a "Probable Loss" if not "Sure Loss", UGA in 2010 was at least a "Probable Loss". Admittedly, wins like those have ceased the past 5 seasons (thanks Embree, Bohn, Benson, etc), but they will no doubt happen again, and nobody will predict it.
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I thought this thread was called Season predictions - isn't that all about probable outcomes. You threw out 6-6 so it must be based on something.

If you are making a prediction today you have to use the information available at this point in time. No one knows what the situation will be come game day - USC could suspend their entire first team, some team could lose their starting QB, etc. On the other hand what happens if Sefo cannot play. At least I showed you my methodology, more than you were capable of doing.

Be sure to bet your house on the Buffs beating Michigan, you will be rich.
 
BlackNGold said:
I thought this thread was called Season predictions - isn't that all about probable outcomes. You threw out 6-6 so it must be based on something.

If you are making a prediction today you have to use the information available at this point in time. No one knows what the situation will be come game day - USC could suspend their entire first team, some team could lose their starting QB, etc. On the other hand what happens if Sefo cannot play. At least I showed you my methodology, more than you were capable of doing.

Be sure to bet your house on the Buffs beating Michigan, you will be rich.
Click to expand...
You missed the point about Michigan, but oh well. My prediction for the season is 6-6 because I believe that's how many games they will win and lose. I didn't specify which games would come with which result, because there are too many unknowns. I suppose I could have used your "methodology" of making predictions based on Vegas odds, but from what I saw last season from this team against heavy favorites like UCLA and USC, I believe they can play with just about anybody.... I also believe they can lose to just about anybody. To each his own, I guess.
 
BlackNGold said:
CU needs to win the sure and probable wins - that would give them 3 wins. - they need to find 3 more wins out of the Probable losses. They may get 1. I think that 100 proof Vodka in the Koolaid has many fans underestimating some of our opponents (and at the same time overestimating the Buffs).
Click to expand...

Nice analysis on your picks. Interesting way of breaking it down.

The problem with the vodka in the Koolaid is, I can't quit hoping that this is the year (every year) that we will find a way to snag those three wins.

I think of the alternative here - if we win 4 or less, HCMM is probably gone. After all how much closer can we get without turning some of those close losses into wins? Likely a good chunk of his staff, maybe even Chiv and Leavitt will be out when the new guy takes over. Coaches usually bring their own people with them. We speculate a lot here, that Leavitt will be handed the reins, but is that really likely if we finish with 4 wins or less?

Some or most of the best verbal commits we have right now will be gone as well, and then we are faced with starting over again with the largest class of two star talent the new staff can drag in at the last possible moment. Add in to that, a healthy amount of attrition as the new staff sorts out the kids they don't want or the kids transfer out because they don't like the new staff or scheme. How soon can we expect this new staff to win? Will they be able to win with two star talent in the PAC12? Coaching genius alone really can't get the job done. You have to field some talent as well.

So all things considered, I probably am drinking spiked koolaid, but I think it is out of desperation - we have to win this year if we have any reasonable hope of restoring the program in the near future. And it is, without doubt, Monday after all.
 
TSchekler said:
OU in 2007 was a "Sure Loss", WVU in 2008 was at least a "Probable Loss" if not "Sure Loss", UGA in 2010 was at least a "Probable Loss". Admittedly, wins like those have ceased the past 5 seasons (thanks Embree, Bohn, Benson, etc), but they will no doubt happen again, and nobody will predict it.
Click to expand...

This is one of the other reasons I can't wean myself off the spiked Koolaid. It is college football and anything can happen. We are due to have something good happen. We are due for a little luck to come our way.
 
I get to saying I'm betting the over with the over/under set at 5.5 because:

1. I believe that the number of upperclassmen matters a lot in college football. (Thinking of a couple seasons Wake Forest had.)
2. I believe that a senior QB makes a huge difference, even when he has flaws. (Thinking of Travis Wilson last season.)
3. I believe that learning how to win is a process & there are growing pains along the way. (Thinking of Duke's slow build & CUMBB's 15-16 year.)
4. I believe that when you put that all together, CU has gotten better than last year. (Thinking that means better than a 4-9 result.)
5. I believe that when you put that all together, most of the opponents are significantly flawed. (Thinking that means a real chance in all 12 games.)

So I'd probably go 7-5 without predicting wins or losses except that I count on CSU, Idaho State and Oregon State wins in that number. And if I'm being a fan, I'm calling 8 or 9 wins in the regular season. Why? Because I can see an upside where the Buffs go 5-4 or 6-3 in the other 9 games instead of going 4-5 in them.

That said, we don't know dick right now. We won't know dick until they come out of camp and the CSU game. Hopefully with a decisive victory and full health heading into Week 2.

On that note, how many of you change your thoughts on the USC road game win probability if they beat Alabama in their opener? What if it's a double digit win? What does it do to your USC expectations if they get rolled? Same thing in regard to UCLA vs Texas A&M? And, does it really matter? Last year, the Utah team CU played down to the wire and damn near beat was not the same Utah team from earlier in the season that destroyed Oregon in Eugene.
 
Buffnik said:
On that note, how many of you change your thoughts on the USC road game win probability if they beat Alabama in their opener? What if it's a double digit win? What does it do to your USC expectations if they get rolled? Same thing in regard to UCLA vs Texas A&M? And, does it really matter? Last year, the Utah team CU played down to the wire and damn near beat was not the same Utah team from earlier in the season that destroyed Oregon in Eugene
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All this plays to the pointless endeavor of season predictions that you mentioned earlier. It would be interesting to calculate the actual variables in the average football season for any team, if you could. Who would have thought, for example, that Ohio State could have rolled to a national championship on the back of a third string QB?
 
Buffnik said:
That said, we don't know dick right now.
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How can you forget dick so soon?


2004-11-20-tharp-inside.jpg
 
Buffnik said:
On that note, how many of you change your thoughts on the USC road game win probability if they beat Alabama in their opener? What if it's a double digit win? What does it do to your USC expectations if they get rolled? Same thing in regard to UCLA vs Texas A&M? And, does it really matter? Last year, the Utah team CU played down to the wire and damn near beat was not the same Utah team from earlier in the season that destroyed Oregon in Eugene.
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I've been to USC practices and I'm going to the scrimmage tonight in the Coliseum. We are not winning that game. They are huge, they are fast and they are well coached. I know some here have expressed doubt about whether Clay Helton is the right man for this job, but I've seen how the team responds to him. He is well respected and they work hard for him and his staff. He is the polar opposite of "Hollywood' coaches like Kiffin and Sark, which is what USC needs. That's going to be a long day for us in the Coliseum. I still think we win 6 or 7, though.
 
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