The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced we're in for a LONG year.
I do not believe that the talent level is as good at CU as it is at Fresno State.
Frankly, once you get outside the top 30 or so in terms of recruiting rankings, it's pretty cloudy water. Fresno State has a VERY good QB and has lots of weapons, not 1-2 like CU. Lots of speed on that team.
We somehow think we are more talented than non BCS schools, but we frankly are not. We have had a lot of attrition and guys not develop. We are not a BCS team right now. We are a WAC team, without a QB.
Dillon can surpass Wilson's and Hogan's production in his first year starting. A Kevin Price type year isn't totally out of the question.
But Mariota and Hundley are next level type players. I don't see Dillon reaching that high his first few years.
It's a mix of a few different things, how fast and reliable the WRs are, can the OL protect, is the RB situation effective outside of Powell who has had durability issues, and are the schemes effective enough keep defenses off balance. Basically how much of what went wrong last year will go wrong this year?
If we are going to project hypothetical scenarios then why compare him to Kenny Price, why not Johnny Manziel? This is a major problem with Buff fans - they are not aggressive enough in their delusions. They could really learn something from Nebraska and Texas fans.
Looking at QB's we will play, we are behind the 8-ball big time.
ASU - Kelly will be a JR
USC - will be plugging in the "next" guy
WA - returns Price for his SR year
Stanford - Hogan returns for his SO year
Oregon - Mariota will be a SO
AZ - battle ongoing, but their backup last year, Denker (SR, Juco starter prior) put over 50 on our Buffs in his only start last year.
UCLA - returns Hundley, will be a SO
Oregon State - upperclassmen Vaz and Manion are splitting reps again this spring. Both have a wealth of gameday experience.
Fresno State - Carr returns for his SR year
Central Arkansas - Returns Smothers, a run/pass guy with a lot of experience (sounds familiar)
Utah - They broke in True Frosh Travis Wilson who started the last 6 games, gaining valuable experience
And only Cal looks to be breaking in a new QB, as Sonny Dykes decides which of the three 4-star Blue Chips will get the nod at QB.
Dillon can surpass Wilson's and Hogan's production in his first year starting. A Kevin Price type year isn't totally out of the question.
But Mariota and Hundley are next level type players. I don't see Dillon reaching that high his first few years.
It's a mix of a few different things, how fast and reliable the WRs are, can the OL protect, is the RB situation effective outside of Powell who has had durability issues, and are the schemes effective enough keep defenses off balance. Basically how much of what went wrong last year will go wrong this year?
Dillon can surpass Wilson's and Hogan's production in his first year starting. A Kevin Price type year isn't totally out of the question.
But Mariota and Hundley are next level type players. I don't see Dillon reaching that high his first few years.
It's a mix of a few different things, how fast and reliable the WRs are, can the OL protect, is the RB situation effective outside of Powell who has had durability issues, and are the schemes effective enough keep defenses off balance. Basically how much of what went wrong last year will go wrong this year?
It's March what do you expect.
Price threw for 2700 and 19/13. Not exactly unattainable, although by our recent standards yes that seems far fetched. But to put it into perspective, that's just 52% of Manziel's total yards.
Dillon hasn't surpassed a couple QBs on his own roster yet! Let's not get all "Connor Wood is going to win the Heisman" just yet!
Hogan is a next level type player. He took over midseason and led Stanford to the conference title and a Rose Bowl win. He was not just a game manager either.
Way too late for that. But it's only March. Wait until August when the hype machine picks up steam based on Fall scrimmage reports. Someone should get a head start on reserving Dillon4heisman.com.
He averaged 150/yards per game (120 passing, 30 rushing). I think he's very talented, and those stats have a lot to do with Stanford's running game effectiveness and their conservative nature. But he personally didn't put up eye popping stats last year.
Well and if you believe Tini, Dillon will be up to about 225 by the time fall camp opens so I don't think 1st team all Pac 12 is out of the question.
It is not always just about stats. Aside from the Buffs, he played:
Oregon State
@ Oregon
@ UCLA
UCLA
Wisconsin
Not exactly easy competition and he won every game. Plus that comeback at Oregon was pretty special.
Sigh.
1. I said 220
2. Basing it off of his weight gain trend since he got to campus. If you have a better way to predict his weight go right ahead and enlighten me
Weight gain (or loss) is almost never linear particularly for a tall, lanky kid like Dillon with a 19 year old's metabolism. Same goes for heavy folks - a 400 pound guy might lose 15 pounds his first week with a trainer but he's not going to continue on that pace and lose 200 pounds in 3 months.
You should know this better than anyone - after 2 1/2 years lifting weights and downing the creatine what are you up to? 155?
must.. not... comment... on... obvious... point... poor... tini...
read what I quoted. You know, the stuff you wrote. Also, Sinkratz makes the argument. then, take put your baby bottle back in your mouth and think before speaking (typing?) further :lol:No go ahead since you're an all knowing person, or so you think you are. I would love for you to explain to me how it's so unreasonable to expect someone in a BCS strength and conditioning program to gain roughly 12 pounds in roughly six months. Make my day.
Did I say it was linear? No I did not, I actually made it a point to say that this was less than his monthly average weight gain since he got to campus. Him getting up to 220 is actually nearly half a pound less a month from his gains since he got to campus, ala a decreasing returns to scale, which is exactly what you would expect in a weight gain scenario.
read what I quoted. You know, the stuff you wrote. Also, Sinkratz makes the argument. then, take put your baby bottle back in your mouth and think before speaking (typing?) further :lol:
Seriously? You can't figure this out? Here's a hint: Diminishing marginal returns.Ah so according to tapatalk, you didn't quote anything other than my latest post in this thread. Please, go ahead and explain to me where I am wrong on this. I'll wait.
Really, a whole half pound per month? Poor kid, I hope he still gets enough iron.
When he looks like Rothlisberger next spring I'll send you some rep.
Seriously? You can't figure this out? Here's a hint: Diminishing marginal returns.
Awesome, so I screwed up my vocabulary. Glad you care so much about that. Up until point H, this graph illustrates my point perfectly.
A graph about producing jackets illustrates your point about collegiate athlete weight gain perfectly? Roger that.