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Tiebreaker Scenarios for PAC-12 tourney

duhu

Member
EDITED- Washington can no longer finish higher than 6th or lower than 9th. No longer applicable for previous six way tie for third.

Tiebreaker scenario:

Current standings:
Arizona: 15-2
UCLA: 12-5
Arizona St: 10-7
Colorado: 10-7
Oregon: 9-8
Utah: 9-8
Stanford: 9-8
Cal: 9-8
Washington: 8-9
Oregon State: 7-10
USC: 2-15
Wazzu: 2-15

First, some basic stuff:
USC and Washington State are locked into the 11/12 seeds.
Oregon State is locked into the 10 seed.
Arizona is locked into the 1 seed.
UCLA is locked into the 2 seed.

Seeds #3 to #8 is where it gets mushy. It is possible for a FIVE WAY TIE for third place. ASU, FORD/UTAH, CAL, OREGON, COLORADO could all finish 10-8 in the conference, tied for third place. What is good for Colorado is that they would hold the tiebreaker over most of those schools. I will start with Colorado's pac-12 tourney seed possibilities and probabilities.

A #3 seed is only possible with a win @Cal and an Arizona State loss @Oregon State.
A #4 seed is guaranteed with a win @Cal and an Arizona State win @Oregon State. Even with a loss, a #4 seed is possible, depending on who else is tied with the Buffs.
A #5 seed is possible with a loss @Cal and a Utah loss @ Stanford. Arizona State gets the #3 seed, Cal gets the #4 seed. There are other scenarios as well, depending on who is tied with who, but this is the most basic case.
A #6 seed is possible with a Colorado loss @ Cal, an ASU win @Oregon State, a Utah win @Stanford and an Oregon loss vs Arizona. Arizona State gets the #3 seed, Utah would get the #4 seed and Cal would get the #5 seed. It is also possible under other scenarios, such as one of the six way tie possibilities, mentioned below.
I do not believe a #7 seed or worse is possible. There's a lot of of tiebreaking possibilities so I may have messed up somewhere.

Here's an in-depth look at all the PAC-12 teams from #3 to #8.

The FIVE way tie possibility
Occurs if:
ASU loses @Oregon state
Oregon wins vs Arizona
Colorado loses @ Cal
Winner of Stanford/Utah

For the first tiebreaker in the case of more than two teams, it's best record against the other teams that are tied with you (ie better winning percentage). It's mostly dependent on the winner of Stanford/Utah, but here's how it'd go:

If Stanford wins:
#3 Arizona St: 5-3
#4 Colorado: 3-2
#5 Cal: 3-3 (tiebreaker- better record vs Zona)
#6 Stanford: 3-3
#7 Oregon: 1-4

If Utah wins:
#3 Arizona St: 5-3
#4 Utah: 3-3 (tiebreaker- better record vs UCLA)
#5 Colorado: 3-3
#6 Cal: 2-3 (tiebreaker- head to head over Oregon)
#7 Oregon: 2-3

Thus, Stanford winning over Utah is far more beneficial for Colorado.

Anyway, there are a load of tiebreaking possibilities in this conference this year. Really just depends on who Colorado is tied with. Colorado holds every tiebreaker I can think of over Oregon, Stanford and Washington. Getting a higher seed over Arizona State and Utah is where it could get dicey, depending on who/how many teams are also tied with Colorado. Cal would hold every tiebreaker imaginable over Colorado if Rado were to lose @Cal.

In any case, even with a loss @Cal, the #4 or #5 seed are, statistically, the most likely. Overall, the #4 is slightly more likely than the #5.
 
Last edited:
Woah, did you just call CU Rado? Prepare for Orr.

Edit: this is great stuff. I made it an article. Not often you see a first post get promoted to an Article. Thanks Duhu. Hope everyone reps you.
 
Last edited:
That's a strong first post. Thanks, duhu.

The scenarios are going to get a lot simpler after tonight if UCLA beats Washington.
 
Buffnik said:
That's a strong first post. Thanks, duhu.

The scenarios are going to get a lot simpler after tonight if UCLA beats Washington.
Click to expand...

:nod:

Really would have helped if CAL had won last night.
 
Great post. Rep this man.

Cliff Notes version:

* Root for UCLA to beat Washington tonight
* Root for OSU to beat ASU Saturday
* Root for CU to beat Cal

UCLA win tonight I believe locks us in to 5 or above. CU win locks us in to 4 or above. CU win plus ASU loss gets us 3 (and avoids Arizona until the finals).
 
Goose said:
Great post. Rep this man.

Cliff Notes version:

* Root for UCLA to beat Washington tonight
* Root for OSU to beat ASU Saturday
* Root for CU to beat Cal

UCLA win tonight I believe locks us in to 5 or above. CU win locks us in to 4 or above. CU win plus ASU loss gets us 3 (and avoids Arizona until the finals).
Click to expand...
truth. also rep goose, cause he translated it for me. As we know, I'm not good with tiebreaker scenarios.
 
Goose said:
Great post. Rep this man.

Cliff Notes version:

* Root for UCLA to beat Washington tonight
* Root for OSU to beat ASU Saturday
* Root for CU to beat Cal

UCLA win tonight I believe locks us in to 5 or above. CU win locks us in to 4 or above. CU win plus ASU loss gets us 3 (and avoids Arizona until the finals).
Click to expand...

You sure about the bold? :lol:
 
duhu said:


Seeds #3 to #8 is where it gets mushy. It is possible for a SIX WAY TIE for third place. ASU, FORD/UTAH, CAL, OREGON, WASH, COLORADO could all finish 10-8 in the conference, tied for third place. What is good for Colorado is that they would hold the tiebreaker over most of those schools.
Click to expand...

Most of those teams have tiebreakers over Colorado. I think only Stanford and Oregon wouldn't. And in the case of a 6 way tie, I think Oregon would have the edge over Colorado because they have tiebreakers over 3 of the 5 other teams, and Colorado only has tiebreakers over 2 of them.

It's a messy situation for sure, but think there is still a chance CU falls to #8, if it is a 6 way tie.
 
rolandftw said:
Most of those teams have tiebreakers over Colorado. I think only Stanford and Oregon wouldn't. And in the case of a 6 way tie, I think Oregon would have the edge over Colorado because they have tiebreakers over 3 of the 5 other teams, and Colorado only has tiebreakers over 2 of them.

It's a messy situation for sure, but think there is still a chance CU falls to #8, if it is a 6 way tie.
Click to expand...
Impossible for CU to fall as low as #8. 1 on 1, Washington would have the tiebreaker over CU individually (assuming they win out), but the problem is that they have a worse record against the other teams they'd be tied with in comparison to Colorado, assuming it's a multi-tie. Only Cal would have every guaranteed tiebreaker over Colorado. Utah/ASU/Washington would depend on the situation.
 
duhu said:
Impossible for CU to fall as low as #8. 1 on 1, Washington would have the tiebreaker over CU individually (assuming they win out), but the problem is that they have a worse record against the other teams they'd be tied with in comparison to Colorado, assuming it's a multi-tie. Only Cal would have every guaranteed tiebreaker over Colorado. Utah/ASU/Washington would depend on the situation.
Click to expand...

Ah, you're right. If Utah beats Stanford: ASU would be 5-4, Oregon 3-4, Cal 4-3, CU 4-4, Utah 5-5, Washington 4-5. Looks like CU is likely the 5th or 6th seed with a loss.
 
I thought that in the event of a tie, you were compared against your record against the conference regular season champ.

For instance, if we tied with utah in the regular season, and each won at home, our records V zona would be compared (both teams lost twice).
Since that still results in a tie, it will move down to ucla (which would break the tie, because the utes beat them).

Apparently this isnt the case if more than 2 teams are tied?
 
I think the goal going into the year was to get that first round bye in the P12 tournament. Beat Cal and that is accomplished.

I almost feel like I prefer the #4 seed to the #3 seed. We owe the ***********.
 
Oh, one other thing - I know the P12 doesn't separate into North/South for basketball, but I find it interesting that there's a very solid possibility that the top four teams would all be from the "South".
 
sackman said:
I think the goal going into the year was to get that first round bye in the P12 tournament. Beat Cal and that is accomplished.

I almost feel like I prefer the #4 seed to the #3 seed. We owe the ***********.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'll let you be alone on that one. My ass is hoping we end up #3. I want to avoid Arizona until the finals.
 
wyobuff said:
I thought that in the event of a tie, you were compared against your record against the conference regular season champ.

For instance, if we tied with utah in the regular season, and each won at home, our records V zona would be compared (both teams lost twice).
Since that still results in a tie, it will move down to ucla (which would break the tie, because the utes beat them).

Apparently this isnt the case if more than 2 teams are tied?
Click to expand...
Tiebreakers go as follows
For two teams:
1) Head to head matchup between the two.
2) Better record against the first place PAC team, second place, third place, etc, until tie is broken.
3) Better win/loss percentage against Division 1 opponents
4) Coin toss

For three or more teams:
1) Higher winning percentage against all teams tied
2) Head to head matchup if two are tied.
3) If there is still a tie, use #2 from a two team tiebreaker scenario above.
4) Better win/loss percentage against Division 1 opponents.
5) Coin toss.
 
duhu said:
Tiebreakers go as follows
For two teams:
1) Head to head matchup between the two.
2) Better record against the first place PAC team, second place, third place, etc, until tie is broken.
3) Better win/loss percentage against Division 1 opponents
4) Coin toss

For three or more teams:
1) Higher winning percentage against all teams tied
2) Head to head matchup if two are tied.
3) If there is still a tie, use #2 from a two team tiebreaker scenario above.
4) Better win/loss percentage against Division 1 opponents.
5) Coin toss.
Click to expand...

Thank you.
 
I want that 3 seed.

The teams I think we match up best against:

1. Washington
2. Oregon State
3. Stanford
4. Cal
5. ASU
6. Utah
7. Oregon

Yep. Of all the teams we could play in the 2nd round, I want to see a rematch with Oregon the least. Might surprise some people, but I'd worry more about Utah than any of the others.
 
Buffnik said:
I want that 3 seed.

The teams I think we match up best against:

1. Washington
2. Oregon State
3. Stanford
4. Cal
5. ASU
6. Utah
7. Oregon

Yep. Of all the teams we could play in the 2nd round, I want to see a rematch with Oregon the least. Might surprise some people, but I'd worry more about Utah than any of the others.
Click to expand...

I agree with you mostly. I'd flip 2 & 3 - in short tourneys with no preparation, teams with weird defenses, lots of height and that can shoot scare me. That's OSU. I'd rather face Furd again.

Oregon & Utah are scarier than UCLA to me.
 
Goose said:
I agree with you mostly. I'd flip 2 & 3 - in short tourneys with no preparation, teams with weird defenses, lots of height and that can shoot scare me. That's OSU. I'd rather face Furd again.

Oregon & Utah are scarier than UCLA to me.
Click to expand...

Very hard to beat a team twice in such a short time frame (i.e. our Red Raider incident in 2010), so I'm torn. I do think Oregon State is better than anyone realizes.
 
UW now out of the picture. Thank you UCLA. One day of basketball for the Pac-12 left in the regular season folks.
 
Edited the OP. Biggest winner overall with Washington losing is Colorado and Arizona State, with the biggest loser being Cal.
 
I swore we were mathematically eliminated from the 6 seed, but looks like I was wrong. Thanks duhu.
 
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