CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
No. That's broken by best overall record
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Tiebreaker Scenarios for PAC-12 tourney
- Thread starter duhu
- Start date
No. That's broken by best overall record
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Only a loss to Wazzu = bubble.
:nod: Even then we should be good.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
The only way the Buffs turn into a bubble team is if they lose the 1st game. Even then, they're probably safe. (The Buffs beat WSU by 1 point, in overtime, back in January)
At this point, wins only improve the Buffs' seed in the NCAA tournament.
Gridiron
Member
Exactly, and that's not guaranteed after the inconsistency as of late.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
No win is a guarantee, but we're not losing to Wazzu on a neutral court. We'll beat Wazzu and Cal.
Gridiron
Member
You're more of an optimist than I. I hope you're right CVB.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I'm not usually the sunshine pumper on here, fwiw. I have a hard time seeing Cal beat us twice in 5 days. Not impressed with them. It often works out that the team who plays the day before the quarterfinal comes out of the gates more quickly, the fatigue doesn't really hit until deeper in the tournament.
cubuffs85
Active Member
Didn't you say we locked it up after the win on Wed?
I bet Wazzu isn't too confident facing us, I wish we were playing USC, but no reason we shouldn't win that game. There's no guarantees we aren't playing MD-Eastern Shore.
Last edited by a moderator:
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
No, I said something along the lines of "almost certainly sealed the deal." And we're almost certainly going to beat Wazzu, and a loss to Wazzu would make things nerve wracking but we'd still get in, IMO.
duhu
Member
The only possible way Colorado is the 5th seed is if the PAC-12 does their tiebreakers differently from all other conferences that I know of. I've checked and re-checked and re-checked the re-check on the teams collective records against the other tied teams. Colorado should be the #4.
I also can't find any official information yet on seeding.
I also can't find any official information yet on seeding.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Leave it to the Pac to have some weird tiebreaker no one else uses. Or Dave Plati making his own tiebreaker.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
Tie breakers probably aren't final because the games haven't all been played.
duhu
Member
Only game left is UCLA/Wazzu, and that is only to determine the #11/12 seed.
Junction
Club Member
I was in the same place. I think the trick is that once the #3 seed is determined (ASsU), then you throw them out of the calculation and look at the records of teams 4-7 against that group. CU has a better record against ASsU than Cal does, which means when you take them out of the calculation, Cal passes CU. At least that's what I got from the link to the CU website that is posted upthread. By the time you get to determining the 6 & 7 seeds, it just comes down to head-to-head between Furd and Oregon.
Gridiron
Member
I hear ya, 2011 still haunts me. I just see the Pac12 likely as a 6-team league for tourney bids. Seven possible but I'd say unlikely just because conference tournament upsets happen and someone ends up stealing a bid. Maybe that changes after today on most brackets, but it seems Pac-12 has mostly been at 6 bids as of late.
With those 6 teams, Zona, UCLA, ASU (I don't know how), and Oregon (thanks to today) are likely locks. CU, Stanford, Cal fighting for 2 spots. CU must win vs. Wazzu. Stanford must win vs. USC. If we or Stanford lose, we are both on thin ice. If we lose and Stanford wins, what then?
Cal either gets us or Wazzu in 2nd round. If they Cal beats us, it would be another strong resume win for Cal. Just saying, we **** the bed today in losing that 3 seed. Could have locked up a tourney bid today, instead we are counting on winning 1-2 games on a neutral court and hoping other bubble teams drop like flies.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
Don't you "reset" the tie-breaker after each team wins?
In other words, there are 5 teams who tied at 10-8. Head to head among the tied teams is the 1st tie-breaker.
Once you determine who the "top" team is among the 5 10-8 teams, you have to re-do the tie-breaker, from the top (i.e. head to head again), with the remaining 4 teams.
In other words, there are 5 teams who tied at 10-8. Head to head among the tied teams is the 1st tie-breaker.
Once you determine who the "top" team is among the 5 10-8 teams, you have to re-do the tie-breaker, from the top (i.e. head to head again), with the remaining 4 teams.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Key difference is our RPI is 31. It was 66 in 2011. We also had numerous bad losses in 2011. We've learned how to schedule since then.
I don't see us, Furd and Cal fighting for 2 spots. If Cal plays their way in, it won't be at our expense.
duhu
Member
PAC-12 tourney last year (tiebreakers)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Pacific-12_Conference_Men's_Basketball_Tournament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Pacific-12_Conference_Men's_Basketball_Tournament
Gridiron
Member
See attached. Also tourney bracket snapshot was posted on the Pac 12 network after the CU-Cal game confirming:
1. Zona
2. UCLA
3. ASU
4. Cal
5. CU
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8/9. Utah/UW can't remember as they are playing each other 1st round.
10. Oregon State
11/12. USC or Wazzu (to be determined on UCLA Wazzu outcome tonight)
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I like Arizona likely having to face pesky Utah in the quarterfinal
Gridiron
Member
Good points CVB. Just makes me nervous haha. Our schedule and RPI are much better than 2011 and no bad losses helps. Not sweating anything yet, just playing worst case scenario in P12 tourney. Do believe we win 1 and we're in though. Lose and bubble chatter will heat up, would be 1-4 in last 5 at that point.
duhu
Member
Did they change their tiebreaking procedures? Because I do not believe they did that last year (posted link), and I know for a fact that other conferences, such as the Big 10, aren't currently doing that.
Via Big 10 website:
- B. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s)
L Buff
Commissar of the Albuffs Collective Left
While I agree with CVille that by all rights we should be in and not have to sweat Selection Sunday other than seeding ... I share your misgivings, and they are well informed. I too remember 2011, when Lunardi had us in, and then when we were denied, Bilas, Vitale, and others whose opinions I respect (even from ESPN) said we got hosed.
However, besides the difference in RPI between that year and this one that CVille pointed out, we have also since then established ourselves with at least a respectable national reputation, first by winning the 2012 Pac 12 Tourney, then taking Arizona to the wire in the Chengate game (wherein most national figures also said we got hosed ... but we sure got some national pub because of it), and then wiping the floor with said Arizona (sorry Adam) on Valentine's Day last year. Before all that, I would dare to guess that there were several eastern "sportswriters"/pundits/assholes that weren't even sure we had a basketball program.
In short ... this ain't 2011 ... and if we do get denied (even if we lose against Wazzu/USC) it will be even a bigger travesty than what happened then.
cubuffs85
Active Member
There always seems to be that ONE team that gets royally screwed like CU in 2011. Unless it's your team, it's hard to feel that sorry IMO when there's 36 AT-L berths. It's why I always laugh when people say "if we had a 16 team tourney" in football, there would be less controversy. I'm not so sure about that. There might be some pretty compelling cases for #17, more so than #5.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
Is there an "official" tie-breaker?
I see lots of places talking about the tiebreaker, and where the seeds are breaking out - but I can't find the "official" tie-breaker rules on the Pac-12 website.
I see lots of places talking about the tiebreaker, and where the seeds are breaking out - but I can't find the "official" tie-breaker rules on the Pac-12 website.
duhu
Member
They probably don't even know their own rules. :rofl:
Scott: A tie? How the **** is that even possible?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Nothing would shock me.