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USC fires Clay Helton

The Alabaster Yak said:
Since you’re on this path, you should go through and look at other good to great programs and share their sellout history.

I assume Bama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma have all been selling out routinely, but maybe not? Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State? Florida, Georgia, Auburn?

My theory is that the increasing costs of attending, lack of parity over the last 5-10 years, and significantly better product on TV might have something to do with decreasing attendance numbers across the board, not just in Pac 12 land
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I don't have time this AM to mine all that data, but a few hot takes:
  • the issues with fan support at USC go back further than 10 years (see my post about their last two* MNC seasons in 2003 and 2004)
  • I'm fairly certain PSU, Georgia, Michigan, Auburn have packed their stadiums pretty well the last ten years
  • Clemson wasn't packing their stadium before their run of MNCs, but I think most fans would consider them nouveau riche, not blue blood
  • Wisconsin, MSU -- is anyone of relevance calling those programs "blue bloods"? UW has never won an MNC and hasn't won the B1G in a while
 
HighlandsBuff said:
Right, they put those big dopey retired jerseys under the arches at the horseshoe end of the stadium to reduce capacity... It always looks sorta weird.
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yes, it has been a long time discussion/issue. it used to be that they would consider a sellout at 92k and that meant usc would be perceived to have poor attendance even when they are drawing more fans than pretty much any other team in SoCal. so, they installed these covers and banners and such to bring the capacity down to like 77k. it is weird and the place can feel empty even when it is nearly full.

back when the broncos and raiders were both good and the raiders were in LA, i went to a game between them where the coliseum was completely full. it was incredibly loud. also saw a usc / notre dame game when both were good and it was really jammed and loud.
 
Liver said:
this is also very wrong. the Dodgers lead mlb in attendance, pretty much every year.

the lakers are and will always be a very tough ticket to get.

usc sells out. ucla sells out.

the rams and chargers and angels are the outliers and do not always get as many fans. but, as you note, if they win, the fans will come.
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My bad I didn’t even think about the Lakers. And the Dodgers have been good for a while, but you really think they sell out if they are bad?

USC and UCLA sell out, even to the 77k standards? The UCLA attendance so far this year has been atrocious
 
hokiehead said:
if I'm mining the data correctly, USC hasn't sold out a game since 2017. Realize that many on Allbuffs place USC more prominently in the class of blue bloods than I do, but I genuinely think that sort of lackluster fan support could be a negative in recruiting a top tier coach.
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The only real negative is the cost of living in LA. Their boosters are flush with cash, it is the second biggest TV market, multiple coaches have proven you can win there. You have built-in recruiting grounds and advantages, a talent pool to pull from. A school culture that wants to win at virtually any cost.

They may not sell out their stupidly large stadium but everything else is in place for them to win, also their fans are a little less irrational than other historic powers (which makes the job more attractive).
 
hokiehead said:
that's correct -- USC hasn't drawn 77.5k at home since 2017 (and that was only two games). I'm not clear why @Liver said my post was incorrect.
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the seats are sold out.

here is a good breakdown someone did right before the 2020 disaster season. https://www.pacifictakes.com/2020/5...washington-usc-ucla-colorado-arizona-stanford

look at average attendance and attendance as a percentage of capacity. and, yes, i could have stated it differently. usc's attendance is "down" compared to their longer term averages over the last 5 years, but they still draw a **** ton of fans every week.
 
absinthe said:
The only real negative is the cost of living in LA. Their boosters are flush with cash, it is the second biggest TV market, multiple coaches have proven you can win there. You have built-in recruiting grounds and advantages, a talent pool to pull from. A school culture that wants to win at virtually any cost.

They may not sell out their stupidly large stadium but everything else is in place for them to win.
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near as i can tell the schools mitigate the housing cost issue by helping finance or something. these dudes seem to usually be in like $5mm+ houses but this is just my anecdotal observation.
 
Liver said:
the seats are sold out.

here is a good breakdown someone did right before the 2020 disaster season. https://www.pacifictakes.com/2020/5...washington-usc-ucla-colorado-arizona-stanford

look at average attendance and attendance as a percentage of capacity. and, yes, i could have stated it differently. usc's attendance is "down" compared to their longer term averages over the last 5 years, but they still draw a **** ton of fans every week.
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Can you cite a source that USC is really selling out? The link you provided contradicts that assertion.
 
hokiehead said:
I don't have time this AM to mine all that data, but a few hot takes:
  • the issues with fan support at USC go back further than 10 years (see my post about their last two* MNC seasons in 2003 and 2004)
  • I'm fairly certain PSU, Georgia, Michigan, Auburn have packed their stadiums pretty well the last ten years
  • Clemson wasn't packing their stadium before their run of MNCs, but I think most fans would consider them nouveau riche, not blue blood
  • Wisconsin, MSU -- is anyone of relevance calling those programs "blue bloods"? UW has never won an MNC and hasn't won the B1G in a while
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1. Are you still going off the Coliseum capacity limits or the capped limits Liver mentioned for your 2003/2004 statements?

2. This is why I asked you to look at those numbers. You’re probably right, but I’m curious. I would have thought Texas would have sold out too, but apparently not.

3. I think there can be different types of blue bloods. Nebraska is absolutely a BB historically, but definitely not anymore. Clemson is not one historically but is definitely one now. They are the second best program in the country in the CFP era.

4. I’m not limiting this discussion to “blue bloods”. Since you are boiling the USC job down to fan support with attendance, I’m simply wondering how attendance looks at other big time programs with great fan support. As I said, I think attendance is down across the board
 
hokiehead said:
Can you cite a source that USC is really selling out? The link you provided contradicts that assertion.
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they sellout the seats but then the seats are not always filled. and, as you note, their attendance has been declining over time.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
1. Are you still going off the Coliseum capacity limits or the capped limits Liver mentioned for your 2003/2004 statements?

2. This is why I asked you to look at those numbers. You’re probably right, but I’m curious. I would have thought Texas would have sold out too, but apparently not.

3. I think there can be different types of blue bloods. ****braska is absolutely a BB historically, but definitely not anymore. Clemson is not one historically but is definitely one now. They are the second best program in the country in the CFP era.

4. I’m not limiting this discussion to “blue bloods”. Since you are boiling the USC job down to fan support with attendance, I’m simply wondering how attendance looks at other big time programs with great fan support. As I said, I think attendance is down across the board
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1. The latter
2. Ok
3. Ok
4. Yes, attendance is down across the board. But my point us that USC's attendance problems go back further than most.
 
Liver said:
they sellout the seats but then the seats are not always filled. and, as you note, their attendance has been declining over time.
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Liver, with all due respect, USC reports attendance based on tickets distributed, not turnstile Count.

Either I'm missing something basic, or your comment makes no sense.
 
hokiehead said:
4. Yes, attendance is down across the board. But my point us that USC's attendance problems go back further than most.
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i think the last full real sellout was in about 2017 or so.

the last few years it has been pretty easy to buy some expensive booster fancy seats on the secondary market.

their raw numbers are still impressive and the revenue generated and all the rest. they are down when measured against themselves not against most of the rest of the p12. uw draws huge crowds too.
 
hokiehead said:
1. The latter
2. Ok
3. Ok
4. Yes, attendance is down across the board. But my point us that USC's attendance problems go back further than most.
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What were the attendance numbers in 03/04? What have they been since then? I feel as though you are reading Liver’s comments that are directly refuting your statements, but then continuing to make the same statements.

USC was the premier program in the country in the early to mid 2000s, so whether they had attendance issues or not, should tell you all you need to know about why this argument is irrelevant to the quality of job USC currently is
 
hokiehead said:
Liver, with all due respect, USC reports attendance based on tickets distributed, not turnstile Count.

Either I'm missing something basic, or your comment makes no sense.
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trying to find the article. i read in real time that they sell all the 77k tickets every year but that actual attendance has been declining. i know when they are good it is a hard ticket to get and when they are bad, it is dirt cheap.

no due respect required.
 
hokiehead said:
I don't have time this AM to mine all that data, but a few hot takes:
  • the issues with fan support at USC go back further than 10 years (see my post about their last two* MNC seasons in 2003 and 2004)
  • I'm fairly certain PSU, Georgia, Michigan, Auburn have packed their stadiums pretty well the last ten years
  • Clemson wasn't packing their stadium before their run of MNCs, but I think most fans would consider them nouveau riche, not blue blood
  • Wisconsin, MSU -- is anyone of relevance calling those programs "blue bloods"? UW has never won an MNC and hasn't won the B1G in a while
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I certainly wouldn't consider Clemson Nouveau Riche - depending on how far "nouveau" dates back.

Maybe it's because my awareness of college football began in the 80s.

Clemson was a powerhouse through the late 70s, through the 80s and into the early 90s. So I guess I've always considered them a somewhat elite program.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
What were the attendance numbers in 03/04? What have they been since then? I feel as though you are reading Liver’s comments that are directly refuting your statements, but then continuing to make the same statements.

USC was the premier program in the country in the early to mid 2000s, so whether they had attendance issues or not, should tell you all you need to know about why this argument is irrelevant to the quality of job USC currently is
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Iiver hasn't made a point yet that refutes anything I've said. He just keeps insisting games are sold out despite the data showing otherwise.

I posted about 2003 and 2004 above. Scroll up to post 169: one home sellout each year (Notre Dame, UCLA).
 
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hokiehead said:
Iiver hasn't made a point yet that refutes anything I've said. He just keeps insisting games are sold out despite the data showing otherwise.

I posted about 2003 and 2004 above. Scroll up to post 169: one home sellout each year (Notre Dame, UCLA).
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i think i figured out the disconnect. i wrongly assumed that total capacity of 77k = 77k season tix. some number (i can't find a reliable source) are not season tix. thus, usc can claim it sells out its season tix and vary that number based upon demand. i have seen guesses that they have reduced the total number of season tix sold from somewhere in mid 60k range to somewhere in the low 50k range.

also the facts on bohn's hires via SI.com... lulz fickell is the exception maybe not the rule?

He hired three football coaches while at Colorado -- Mike MacIntyre (30-44), who won a Pac-12 South Division title, Jon Embree (4-21) and Dan Hawkins (16-33). Bohn's most recent hire, Luke Fickell, who he nabbed from Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State, has led Cincinnati to a 7-1 mark this year and 22-11 overall.
 
Liver said:
i think i figured out the disconnect. i wrongly assumed that total capacity of 77k = 77k season tix. some number (i can't find a reliable source) are not season tix. thus, usc can claim it sells out its season tix and vary that number based upon demand. i have seen guesses that they have reduced the total number of season tix sold from somewhere in mid 60k range to somewhere in the low 50k range.

also the facts on bohn's hires via SI.com... lulz fickell is the exception maybe not the rule?

He hired three football coaches while at Colorado -- Mike MacIntyre (30-44), who won a Pac-12 South Division title, Jon Embree (4-21) and Dan Hawkins (16-33). Bohn's most recent hire, Luke Fickell, who he nabbed from Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State, has led Cincinnati to a 7-1 mark this year and 22-11 overall.
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Your apology to Hokie (and to the rest of us for dragging us through that) wasn't as clear as it could have been in this post.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
1. Are you still going off the Coliseum capacity limits or the capped limits Liver mentioned for your 2003/2004 statements?

2. This is why I asked you to look at those numbers. You’re probably right, but I’m curious. I would have thought Texas would have sold out too, but apparently not.

3. I think there can be different types of blue bloods. ****braska is absolutely a BB historically, but definitely not anymore. Clemson is not one historically but is definitely one now. They are the second best program in the country in the CFP era.

4. I’m not limiting this discussion to “blue bloods”. Since you are boiling the USC job down to fan support with attendance, I’m simply wondering how attendance looks at other big time programs with great fan support. As I said, I think attendance is down across the board
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this was interesting -- thanks for encouraging me to dig.

for the ten years from 2010 - 2019:
  • Penn State hasn't been selling out, but had a total of 27 home games that drew less than 100k (< 3/year). of those, all drew over 90k
  • Georgia sold out every home game over that time except the UMass game in 2018 and Coastal Carolina in 2011!!!! //I'm shocked and impressed
  • Michigan sold out the home slate from 2015-19 and 2009-12(impressive). 6 games in 2014 not sold out, but all drew over 100k. in 2015, one non-sell out (Akron) also drew > 100k
  • Auburn sold out the home slate in 2014 and 2015, but also failed to sell out 3 games in 2019 and 2016, missed on two in 2010 (LA-Monroe and Chatanooga), didn't sell out a single game in 2012 or 2018, missed on 4 in 2011 and 2017, and missed on 6/8 in 2013. worth noting, all non-sellouts were >80k
fair noting that none of these schools reside in a population dense area anything close to LA.

and worth noting that when the above schools didn't sellout, they missed it by single digit percentages. USC has struggled to get above 75% capacity when any school besides ND plays at Memorial Coliseum.

and of course, Memorial Coliseum is smaller than the home stadiums of all of these other schools.

I also dug back to 1985, and couldn't find the last time USC sold out the home slate for a full season (posted above, in 2003 and 2004 -- the MNC* years -- USC only sold out one game each, although in fairness they drew better in 2005 and 2006). Think about that for a minute -- USC hasn't sold out their home slate since before most all members of this board were born, despite the advantage of being in the largest metro area and having a smaller stadium.

Again, I acknowledge that attendance isn't the only indication of fan support, but I do think it's a relevant one. USC is simply not in the same league as these other schools in this respect. I haven't been "boiling down the USC job to fan attendance"; I've been careful to label it as only one aspect.
 
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The Alabaster Yak said:
Southern California isn’t a pro sports area either. Sure, they support the Dodgers awhen they’re winning, but they’ve never supported athletics at any level unless they’re winning.

The point w USC is that, they are still well ahead of the Rams and Chargers in popularity in the LA market and when they are good and nationally relevant, they get all the fan support they need.
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This is 100% wrong.
 
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