Washington State @ CU 11/19 @ 1:30 PM on Fox Official PREGAME Thread

[Alfred91]

If we have to play CU twice, CU will have to play us twice too. Believe me, Leach never gets into the strategy of "take it easy this game because it doesn't matter." He wants to win every game, by as many points as possible. He's managed to put a few wrinkles into the offense and Grinch into the defense that, obviously based on our 7-0 conference record has kept people on their toes.

Also, throw out any prior history of Leach against CU teams. This isn't about Leach, this is about the kids on the field. You can't correlate Leach at TTU in the 2000's to Leach at WSU in the 2010's. I mean, you can, but I don't see what you're trying to prove?

I promise you, WSU is going to come out hard and fast and try to win this game. It's our only game this week, and it's the only one they want to win. After Saturday they'll reset and worry about UW.

I agree with most of what you said, but considering that Leach has struggled here with multiple generations of players against multiple CU coaches, I don't think it's crazy to say that it might be something with Leach - maybe his style of play doesn't translate well to the altitude? I'm just spitballing. Maybe it's just an odd coincidence.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[HDcoug]

Wazzu's main deal is the passing game. We typically neutralize other teams' passing attacks. Even in our worst loss to UMich, our punter cost us 2 TDs, not the defense. In our two losses as a whole, our defense held their opponents below their normal PPG output. If Wazzu can either a) find a way to unlock our elite secondary or b) pound the rock like UMich or USC did, they will win.

If not, best wishes in the Apple Cup.

That is true, but at the same time, you guys have not played a good passing team this season that I have seen. Another factor is that the Air Raid is fairly difficult to shut down as it is focused on short passing making it harder to shut down than traditional passing attacks. That is not to say we are going to drop 500 yards on you guys, but 350 or more would not be at all surprising. This game will come down to the lines as most games do. I think we have the best OL in the Pac-12. I think out DL is middle of the road. I have no clue about your DL or OL, so I won't speak to that.

 

[manhattanbuff]

See, I knew you wouldn't read the link. Summary: Our secondary forces teams to regress in the passing game. Our opponents pass at a less efficient rate against CU than all of their opponents. If Wazzu can get theirs against an elite secondary without River C, we will lose. I just happen to like our matchups here, especially now since we have more options in rolling safeties without River playing.

BTW, we know the Air Raid. Many of its concepts are in our offense. I'm not worried about getting beaten schematically. Our defense is set up to beat pass happy O's like Wazzu.

That is true, but at the same time, you guys have not played a good passing team this season that I have seen. Another factor is that the Air Raid is fairly difficult to shut down as it is focused on short passing making it harder to shut down than traditional passing attacks. That is not to say we are going to drop 500 yards on you guys, but 350 or more would not be at all surprising. This game will come down to the lines as most games do. I think we have the best OL in the Pac-12. I think out DL is middle of the road. I have no clue about your DL or OL, so I won't speak to that.

 

[HDcoug]

See, I knew you wouldn't read the link. Summary: Our secondary forces teams to regress in the passing game. Our opponents pass at a less efficient rate against CU than all of their opponents. If Wazzu can get theirs against an elite secondary without River C, we will lose. I just happen to like our matchups here, especially now since we have more options in rolling safeties without River playing.

BTW, we know the Air Raid. Many of its concepts are in our offense. I'm not worried about getting beaten schematically. Our defense is set up to beat pass happy O's like Wazzu.

So the USC guy in one of his first games was an anomaly? There is nothing to know about the Air Raid itself, as the schemes are simple. We have no playbook. I am just not buying that Colorado is a great pass D when they have played zero quality pass opponents. They may be, but having some data points in your favor against teams that would rather run down the middle every other play does not convince me. Perhaps their play will on Saturday. I would suggest keeping those safeties where they are though, as Sweet is a good WR as well.

 

[Darth Snow]

So the USC guy in one of his first games was an anomaly? There is nothing to know about the Air Raid itself, as the schemes are simple. We have no playbook. I am just not buying that Colorado is a great pass D when they have played zero quality pass opponents. They may be, but having some data points in your favor against teams that would rather run down the middle every other play does not convince me. Perhaps their play will on Saturday. I would suggest keeping those safeties where they are though, as Sweet is a good WR as well.

We hold teams to their worst passing performance of the year more often than not. Confident in breaking that trend, you should not be.

 

[Liver]

wait, what? cooooog thinks our secondary isn't a strength?

i hope granny pirate fetish is thinking the same way! but, i am pretty sure leach knows a bit more about it than hdcooooog.

this is a strength on strength matchup and should be a great game.

 

[manhattanbuff]

Actually Darnold had a pretty good game. He turned the ball over quite a bit & was super lucky on one TD. He has been MUCH better against his other opponents. USC still only scored 21 points against us. We had our backup QB in for most of the game, which caused some offensive issues. If y'all only score 21, Wazzu will be hard pressed to win in Boulder. The way I see Wazzu winning is by our team having atypical lapses in coverage/open field tackling and poor ball security on offense.

See, the "you haven't played anyone" arg is answered by the data. Against our 10 opponents this season, their passing games regressed when they played us. Their passing numbers were better against the rest of their competition. You can choose to disbelieve facts if you wish. Most teams don't like to run it up the middle these days.

BTW, we thrive in press man v man situations. Safeties having more flexibility because a quality receiver is done for good isn't a plus for your offense.

So the USC guy in one of his first games was an anomaly? There is nothing to know about the Air Raid itself, as the schemes are simple. We have no playbook. I am just not buying that Colorado is a great pass D when they have played zero quality pass opponents. They may be, but having some data points in your favor against teams that would rather run down the middle every other play does not convince me. Perhaps their play will on Saturday. I would suggest keeping those safeties where they are though, as Sweet is a good WR as well.

 

[8Jah]

My asshole boss pissed me off today...so I made this graph. Interesting how WSU is an easy team to understand with data. Mike Leach runs a system offense that is very much the same from game to game and from home to away. They have also had the same QB all year. Some have commented that WSU actually has a run game this year. I guess they do compared to previous years. As a consistent run game should, it consistently generates less yards against better rush defenses. WSU is an air raid passing attack. The only time they have changed style of offensive play is when they play terrible rush defenses (OofU and CAL); where they lowered there pass attempts to get more rush attempts. Other than those games the trend is monotonic - good rush defenses reliably shut them down. CU has the 27th best rush defense in the country.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Actually Darnold had a pretty good game. He turned the ball over quite a bit & was super lucky on one TD. He has been MUCH better against his other opponents. USC still only scored 21 points against us. We had our backup QB in for most of the game, which caused some offensive issues. If y'all only score 21, Wazzu will be hard pressed to win in Boulder. The way I see Wazzu winning is by our team having atypical lapses in coverage/open field tackling and poor ball security on offense.

See, the "you haven't played anyone" arg is answered by the data. Against our 10 opponents this season, their passing games regressed when they played us. Their passing numbers were better against the rest of their competition. You can choose to disbelieve facts if you wish. Most teams don't like to run it up the middle these days.

BTW, we thrive in press man v man situations. Safeties having more flexibility because a quality receiver is done for good isn't a plus for your offense.

Saying you held the 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th passing defenses to their season low is like saying you beat a 1600 runner in a 100 yard dash; so what. They aren't passing teams, obviously, and they weren't trying to pass the ball very hard. That being said, 3 teams had statistically better than their average passing games against the Buffs, and the two best passing teams you've played thus far have had statistically better games against CU than their season average. THOSE are the facts.

Granted, only one of those teams registered a W, but making a blanket statement that "we crush all passing attacks that we see" isn't true.

And for what its worth, #3 UCLA's season's passing stats are from Rosen. Fafaul's season average is 124 yds per game, so even HE had a statistically better passing game against CU than he has averaged this season *** this is not true and has been corrected below. P12.com had incorrect information for Fafaul.

#6 Pass offense Oregon - 293yds, 2td, 67% comp; Oregon season avg - 264yd, ~67% BETTER
#11 Ore st - 100yds, 51%; Season - 172yds, ~50% WORSE
#5 USC - 358yds, 3td, 67%; Season - 268yds, 66% BETTER
#8 ASU - 149yds, 1td; 37%; Season - 250yds, 58% WORSE
#12 Furd - 170yds, ~55%; Season - 154yds, 58% BETTER
#3 UCLA - 185yds, 51%; Season - 316yds, 56%; WORSE
#10 Zona - 156yds, 46%; Season - 187 yds, 51% WORSE

All that being said, your record is what it is and W's are W's, and to me that is what matters most. It doesn't matter if we pass for 500 yards on you Saturday if your side of the scoreboard has a higher number than ours.

Here's to a hard fought, injury free game.

 

[8Jah]

Like I said: WSU runs a very reliable system offense. Not much game planning week to week - just execute the system. The system has produced sick amounts of yards. There is not much variation between home and away games. Like I mentioned above - in the UofO and CAL games they abandoned the system some because those two terrible defenses where letting WSU rush at will...at the result of fewer pass attempts. The cliff-like trend means that, when playing average to poor defenses, they dominate the defense and impose their will. For those games it doesn't really matter what the defense does - WSU is going to do what it does. However, when the defenses reach a certain quality it really does start to bother WSU. They still get some yards though. Because the CU defense and WSU are predictable I think CU will hold the cougs to less than 250 yards passing and under 100 yards rushing. IMHO who wins the game comes down to which CU offense shows up to play.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

View attachment 21578

Like I said: WSU runs a very reliable system offense. Not much game planning week to week - just execute the system. The system has produced sick amounts of yards. There is not much variation between home and away games. Like I mentioned above - in the UofO and CAL games they abandoned the system some because those two terrible defenses where letting WSU rush at will...at the result of fewer pass attempts. The cliff-like trend means that, when playing average to poor defenses, they dominate the defense and impose their will. For those games it doesn't really matter what the defense does - WSU is going to do what it does. However, when the defenses reach a certain quality it really does start to bother WSU. They still get some yards though. Because the CU defense and WSU are predictable I think CU will hold the cougs to less than 250 yards passing and under 100 yards rushing. IMHO who wins the game comes down to which CU offense shows up to play.

With those number it IS going to come down the the CU offense, because they are going to have to hold the ball for most of the game and play keep away. We average 51 passing attempts per game - that would mean a 4.9yd/ att, better than your season average. As I don't think you're saying you'll crush your season average against the best passing team you've faced (and in the conference), the only way to get that number to <250yds is to limit attempts. At your average of 5.5yds/ att, that would mean 45 attempts, which is about 1 series maybe?

I don't know, I'm floundering here. You tell me - what will <250 passing and <100 rushing look like. Because if you do that you're talking about a CU pounding of WSU, because to me that looks like a lot of 3 and outs.

 

[Liver]

dear coog, make sure you show up for post-game commentary. i am looking forward to a break-down and analysis of how the wsu offense did, especially against the Buff secondary. legit.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

dear coog, make sure you show up for post-game commentary. i am looking forward to a break-down and analysis of how the wsu offense did, especially against the Buff secondary. legit.

I would, but I'm not really the gloating type. If anything I'll just come by to say "good game."

 

[FightCu1414]

Saying you held the 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th passing defenses to their season low is like saying you beat a 1600 runner in a 100 yard dash; so what. They aren't passing teams, obviously, and they weren't trying to pass the ball very hard. That being said, 3 teams had statistically better than their average passing games against the Buffs, and the two best passing teams you've played thus far have had statistically better games against CU than their season average. THOSE are the facts.

Granted, only one of those teams registered a W, but making a blanket statement that "we crush all passing attacks that we see" isn't true.

And for what its worth, #3 UCLA's season's passing stats are from Rosen. Fafaul's season average is 124 yds per game, so even HE had a statistically better passing game against CU than he has averaged this season

#6 Pass offense Oregon - 293yds, 2td, 67% comp; Oregon season avg - 264yd, ~67% BETTER
#11 Ore st - 100yds, 51%; Season - 172yds, ~50% WORSE
#5 USC - 358yds, 3td, 67%; Season - 268yds, 66% BETTER
#8 ASU - 149yds, 1td; 37%; Season - 250yds, 58% WORSE
#12 Furd - 170yds, ~55%; Season - 154yds, 58% BETTER
#3 UCLA - 185yds, 51%; Season - 316yds, 56%; WORSE
#10 Zona - 156yds, 46%; Season - 187 yds, 51% WORSE

All that being said, your record is what it is and W's are W's, and to me that is what matters most. It doesn't matter if we pass for 500 yards on you Saturday if your side of the scoreboard has a higher number than ours.

Here's to a hard fought, injury free game.

You're going to really include the UNLV and ASU game in Fafauls averages? He had one attempt against UNLV and 11 against ASU. Come on man. If you're going to argue about stats, at least get them right.

 

[thisbuff]

...I have no clue about your DL or OL, so I won't speak to that.

I present to you what our d-line will look like v. the coug

 

[8Jah]

Green = CU pass yards for each game
Black = CU rush yards for each game

Showed some WSU offense graphs above. They show trends that are easy to understand 'cause they run the same system week in and week out. The CU offense is erratic. We don't really seem to run a system. We have a pick your poison run or pass game. We game plan a lot and change what we do from game to game. We have also played two QBs.

WSU really tries to stop the run - 19th in run D. They suck at pass D. Makes sense: WSU wants to stop any ball control offense that tries to keep their offense off the field. They welcome any team to shoot it out with them. Leach is a smart dude.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

You're going to really include the UNLV and ASU game in Fafauls averages? He had one attempt against UNLV and 11 against ASU. Come on man. If you're going to argue about stats, at least get them right.

Here's his season line:

Fafaul

10

112.3

108-198-10

54.5

1245

9

75

124.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You going to tell me 12 attempts are going to blow those numbers out of the water? 12 out of 198. Interesting logic you're using there. But just to make you happy:
1245 yards/ 8 games (I even gave him whatever yards he might have made in those whole 12 attempts)= 155 yds/ game. HE STILL DID BETTER VS CU.

 

[8Jah]

With those number it IS going to come down the the CU offense, because they are going to have to hold the ball for most of the game and play keep away. We average 51 passing attempts per game - that would mean a 4.9yd/ att, better than your season average. As I don't think you're saying you'll crush your season average against the best passing team you've faced (and in the conference), the only way to get that number to <250yds is to limit attempts. At your average of 5.5yds/ att, that would mean 45 attempts, which is about 1 series maybe?

I don't know, I'm floundering here. You tell me - what will <250 passing and <100 rushing look like. Because if you do that you're talking about a CU pounding of WSU, because to me that looks like a lot of 3 and outs.

Your yards per attempts reliably goes down the better the defense you play. We will limit attempts through 3 and outs or turnovers. We can also reduce your completion rate and make your long drives less probable.That's probably going to happen. You can be shut down.

We sack more than anyone you have faced all year. I am worried for the health of your QB. A key question is: Can you frustrate our offense? Your cougs get less sacks than anyone in the country - so you don't have a pass rush. Your D is going to have to get stops and produce turnovers. In the end I think you win only if our offense shoots themselves in the foot - which can happen.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Your yards per attempts reliably goes down the better the defense you play. We will limit attempts through 3 and outs or turnovers. We can also reduce your completion rate and make your long drives less probable.That's probably going to happen. You can be shut down.

We sack more than anyone you have faced all year. I am worried for the health of your QB. A key question is: Can you frustrate our offense? Your cougs get less sacks than anyone in the country - so you don't have a pass rush. Your O is going to have to get stops and produce turnovers. In the end I think you win only if our offense shoots themselves in the foot - which can happen.

As to the sack numbers, again not true.

Stanford is ahead of CU in sacks and we gave up 3. They get sacks with their front 4 and the occasional secondary blitz.

ASU has very similar numbers to CU and we gave up 7 sacks. They are blitz crazy and we had a tough time with communicating through the first half, but still had that game won 37-21 in the 4th before giving up 2 garbage scores.

As to frustrating your offense and our sack numbers - Robert Barber is worth 2-3 sacks per game and he's been out for 3 weeks. Those aren't his numbers necessarily, but he free's others up to get the sacks. We are fast sideline to sideline and can create pressure on the quarterback. We have a ball hawking safety who also has a great nose for the run - very reminiscent of first round pick Deone Buchannon. Our biggest liability, as proven by the numbers, is at corner. We have 2 underclassmen who are very inconsistent and can be blocked out of run plays and tend to let WR get behind them waaaaaaay too often. Also, our linebackers tend to give up a couple of big plays every game to a misdirection play, and they are LOUSY in pass coverage, so dust off your TE and tell him to get ready.

While the WSU defensive numbers aren't gawdy, they are very much a bend but don't break defense. We gave up 500 yards to Kal but they only scored 21. We have won a lot of 3rd and 4th and 1 battles. They tend to hold good running teams in check (don't let them get off) and really stick it to the poor ones. It should make for an interesting matchup, for sure.

*** I took the sack numbers from p12.com. Having now found that they have typos and/ or erroneous information on their site, I cannot stand by the above numbers until I can confirm them through a second source. Its almost 1am here, so that's not going to happen until the morning.

 

[FightCu1414]

Here's his season line:

Fafaul

10

112.3

108-198-10

54.5

1245

9

75

124.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You going to tell me 12 attempts are going to blow those numbers out of the water? 12 out of 198. Interesting logic you're using there. But just to make you happy:
1245 yards/ 8 games (I even gave him whatever yards he might have made in those whole 12 attempts)= 155 yds/ game. HE STILL DID BETTER VS CU.

He's played in six games all year moron. In two of those he had one attempt and eleven. So why the hell are you dividing by eight games??

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

He's played in six games all year moron. In two of those he had one attempt and eleven. So why the hell are you dividing by eight games??

The P12 website has him down for 10 games played, hence the "10" in the column next to his name. You said to discount 2 games, that is where the 8 came from.

I went to UCLA's website to confirm and they have him down for 8 games played, of which he only got significant stats in 3, in which he averaged 336. So by the correct numbers (which sucks that I can't rely on the P12 site for accurate statistics...) UCLA did perform worse than their average. Happy now?

 

[ko_leos]

Definitely more lively discussions with WSU fans on this board than any other opposing team we've faced this year. Of course the hype of this game is there. Still, I enjoy opposing fans coming here.

B12 fans were definitely more enjoyable to have though...P12 fans tend to use things like "reason" and "stats"...

Oh and to add to the discussion. We got the major awesome defense. We got major altitude. We got folsom rocking. We gonna be major coug ****ing on Saturday!!!

 

[Burrito]

Seems like there oughta be a bet between 8Jah and BCG.

 

[steph]

The great thing about college football is that you can run through pages of stats, have the talking heads on espn tell you with 100% confidence what they know will happen, and then watch Podunk U stick it to a Clemson or Michigan when by the numbers they have no business even being on the same field. By the numbers WSU and the Buffs are pretty evenly matched and the result of the game comes down to which team really shows up to win. With the buffs drive to win, team unity, and heart, they have the clear advantage and will beat a very good WSU team by a fair margin.

 

[Highlander]

Our resident Cougar hypers need to read this article on the facts of the Buffs defense.

https://theringer.com/colorado-buffaloes-college-football-defense-pac-12-236620342679#.q096e55l0

 

[Dark Bohner]

Let's just play the game already.

 

[lvbuff]

If we beat WSU, we will beat Utah. If we lose to WSU, we will lose to Utah.

it appears that you have become a walmart philosopher. Wow! that is some cheap **** you just threw out.

 

[DBT]

it appears that you have become a walmart philosopher. Wow! that is some cheap **** you just threw out.

I also give advice on the stock market if you're interested.

 

[Jerome]

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/85ffae78-8b7f-4462-aa73-d88510b1eff3

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

Getting lost here is also the altitude factor. The altitude at CU is twice as high as Pullman. If CU steps on the gas up here, I am not sure WSU's defense will be able to keep up for more than 2 or 3 quarters.