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Washington State @ CU 11/19 @ 1:30 PM on Fox Official PREGAME Thread

Let me say up front: I think holding WSU to 250 yards passing is a bit unreasonable. It would be great, but I'm not taking that bet.

The Caveats:
1. We all acknowledge that a crazy unforeseeable event could occur in which CU blows out WSU or WSU destroys CU. It's college football. Acknowledged.
2. It's fair to say that averages against other teams (and common opponents) are helpful, but the expectations generated by those stats can be undermined by individual matchups between unique players when two teams meet. Acknowledged.

The Anomalies:
1. I think it's fair to say that WSU is a very good team, and the EWU loss should not play into our understanding of who they are. Throw it out.
2. For CU's defense, I view Oregon as a bit of anomaly. Even though we secured a victory on an interception, overall, I don't think our pass defense knew exactly who they were yet. Throw it out.

A weird argument from WSU fans:
There is a recurring narrative of "CU hasn't faced an elite pass team yet..."

Okay, we haven't faced a team like WSU yet, I acknowledge that. But if CU's defense is consistently holding teams below season average on YPG, and often at season lows for both YPG and PPG, then does it seem reasonable that CU would hold WSU to lower than normal output? I get that WSU is a better passing team, and all, but I would expect CU to slow the pass offense down somewhat, if not considerably.

Weird argument from CU fans:

We're gonna shut WSU's passing offense down. Okay, I'm a homer, so I get giddy at the prospect. But realistically, our passing stats have been aided by less than perfect QBs. Falk is ****ing good. He'll place the ball perfectly even in good coverage, unless he's dead (possibility). So I don't think CU will realistically shut anything down. 250? I would love to see it. 350 through the air might be a better benchmark for success, assuming we don't give up gashers on the ground.

The assessment I agree with it:

I think CU's O is gonna have to put up points. From both a potential shootout perspective, but also from a ball/clock management perspective as well.

The Pirate and CU:

I haven't read the entire thread, and I don't remember his record v. CU, but something like 2-7 springs to mind. And that is during some historical lows in CU football. The dude lost to Embree and Hawkins. And in Lubbock and Pullman and Boulder (not altitude).

So does it matter at all this year? Probably not. It's about the players not the coach etc... (as one poster already noted)

But it's an odd statistic in futility, nonetheless. We heard that Crabtree would be the one to make a difference. He didn't. It can't be the coaching staffs, because Leach has lost to such a variety of CU coaches. I don't know what it is, but I hope it continues.

Final Caveat:

I don't really know jack-**** about football.

I can't wait for this ****ing game!
 
Uncle Ken said:
Let me say up front: I think holding WSU to 250 yards passing is a bit unreasonable. It would be great, but I'm not taking that bet.

The Caveats:
1. We all acknowledge that a crazy unforeseeable event could occur in which CU blows out WSU or WSU destroys CU. It's college football. Acknowledged.
2. It's fair to say that averages against other teams (and common opponents) are helpful, but the expectations generated by those stats can be undermined by individual matchups between unique players when two teams meet. Acknowledged.

The Anomalies:
1. I think it's fair to say that WSU is a very good team, and the EWU loss should not play into our understanding of who they are. Throw it out.
2. For CU's defense, I view Oregon as a bit of anomaly. Even though we secured a victory on an interception, overall, I don't think our pass defense knew exactly who they were yet. Throw it out.

A weird argument from WSU fans:
There is a recurring narrative of "CU hasn't faced an elite pass team yet..."

Okay, we haven't faced a team like WSU yet, I acknowledge that. But if CU's defense is consistently holding teams below season average on YPG, and often at season lows for both YPG and PPG, then does it seem reasonable that CU would hold WSU to lower than normal output? I get that WSU is a better passing team, and all, but I would expect CU to slow the pass offense down somewhat, if not considerably.

Weird argument from CU fans:

We're gonna shut WSU's passing offense down. Okay, I'm a homer, so I get giddy at the prospect. But realistically, our passing stats have been aided by less than perfect QBs. Falk is ****ing good. He'll place the ball perfectly even in good coverage, unless he's dead (possibility). So I don't think CU will realistically shut anything down. 250? I would love to see it. 350 through the air might be a better benchmark for success, assuming we don't give up gashers on the ground.

The assessment I agree with it:

I think CU's O is gonna have to put up points. From both a potential shootout perspective, but also from a ball/clock management perspective as well.

The Pirate and CU:

I haven't read the entire thread, and I don't remember his record v. CU, but something like 2-7 springs to mind. And that is during some historical lows in CU football. The dude lost to Embree and Hawkins. And in Lubbock and Pullman and Boulder (not altitude).

So does it matter at all this year? Probably not. It's about the players not the coach etc... (as one poster already noted)

But it's an odd statistic in futility, nonetheless. We heard that Crabtree would be the one to make a difference. He didn't. It can't be the coaching staffs, because Leach has lost to such a variety of CU coaches. I don't know what it is, but I hope it continues.

Final Caveat:

I don't really know jack-**** about football.

I can't wait for this ****ing game!
Click to expand...

This is probably the best breakdown I have seen. I also can't wait for this game in part because the benchmark games for WSU this year have fallen off a cliff...looking at you Oregon, UCLA, Stanford! So while as fans we love to be confident, in the back of all of our minds is the damage left by a decade of futility that leaves us wondering...are we really this good? I think you can say that about both fan bases. That also is one of the things that makes this game so awesome. I am looking forward to seeing in "boobie" Williams can put on a show, what sort of crazy catches Marks can come up with, etc. I am sure you guys have your own list. Is that cool or what?
 
sh
Uncle Ken said:
Let me say up front: I think holding WSU to 250 yards passing is a bit unreasonable. It would be great, but I'm not taking that bet.

The Caveats:
1. We all acknowledge that a crazy unforeseeable event could occur in which CU blows out WSU or WSU destroys CU. It's college football. Acknowledged.
2. It's fair to say that averages against other teams (and common opponents) are helpful, but the expectations generated by those stats can be undermined by individual matchups between unique players when two teams meet. Acknowledged.

The Anomalies:
1. I think it's fair to say that WSU is a very good team, and the EWU loss should not play into our understanding of who they are. Throw it out.
2. For CU's defense, I view Oregon as a bit of anomaly. Even though we secured a victory on an interception, overall, I don't think our pass defense knew exactly who they were yet. Throw it out.

A weird argument from WSU fans:
There is a recurring narrative of "CU hasn't faced an elite pass team yet..."

Okay, we haven't faced a team like WSU yet, I acknowledge that. But if CU's defense is consistently holding teams below season average on YPG, and often at season lows for both YPG and PPG, then does it seem reasonable that CU would hold WSU to lower than normal output? I get that WSU is a better passing team, and all, but I would expect CU to slow the pass offense down somewhat, if not considerably.

Weird argument from CU fans:

We're gonna shut WSU's passing offense down. Okay, I'm a homer, so I get giddy at the prospect. But realistically, our passing stats have been aided by less than perfect QBs. Falk is ****ing good. He'll place the ball perfectly even in good coverage, unless he's dead (possibility). So I don't think CU will realistically shut anything down. 250? I would love to see it. 350 through the air might be a better benchmark for success, assuming we don't give up gashers on the ground.

The assessment I agree with it:

I think CU's O is gonna have to put up points. From both a potential shootout perspective, but also from a ball/clock management perspective as well.

The Pirate and CU:

I haven't read the entire thread, and I don't remember his record v. CU, but something like 2-7 springs to mind. And that is during some historical lows in CU football. The dude lost to Embree and Hawkins. And in Lubbock and Pullman and Boulder (not altitude).

So does it matter at all this year? Probably not. It's about the players not the coach etc... (as one poster already noted)

But it's an odd statistic in futility, nonetheless. We heard that Crabtree would be the one to make a difference. He didn't. It can't be the coaching staffs, because Leach has lost to such a variety of CU coaches. I don't know what it is, but I hope it continues.

Final Caveat:

I don't really know jack-**** about football.

I can't wait for this ****ing game!
Click to expand...
****ty ass preview. Acknowledged
 
BleedCrimsonandGray said:
The P12 website has him down for 10 games played, hence the "10" in the column next to his name. You said to discount 2 games, that is where the 8 came from.

I went to UCLA's website to confirm and they have him down for 8 games played, of which he only got significant stats in 3, in which he averaged 336. So by the correct numbers (which sucks that I can't rely on the P12 site for accurate statistics...) UCLA did perform worse than their average. Happy now?
Click to expand...
That's fair. I was going off of ESPN which has lesser games played. So I have no idea why there's a difference.
 
I was listening to a gambling podcast yesterday, and they had a take that I simply didn't agree with. They liked Wazzu to cover... which is perfectly reasonable. But they really liked a Wazzu straight up win with the under. That didn't seem to add up to me. My thoughts are if the game goes under, much more likely CU wins, game goes over, much more likely Wazzu wins. With me saying this, we'll likely get a Buff 50-42 win or a Wazzu 13-10 win.
 
torerobuff said:
I was listening to a gambling podcast yesterday, and they had a take that I simply didn't agree with. They liked Wazzu to cover... which is perfectly reasonable. But they really liked a Wazzu straight up win with the under. That didn't seem to add up to me. My thoughts are if the game goes under, much more likely CU wins, game goes over, much more likely Wazzu wins. With me saying this, we'll likely get a Buff 50-42 win or a Wazzu 13-10 win.
Click to expand...

The Cougs tend to win straight up/ **** the bed when they are underdogs and struggle to cover the spead/ win at all win favored. That isn't from this year, that is from a long history of watching the team. I would never put money on the Cougars, you just never know what they are going to give you.
 
This whole thread reminds me of what fans and talking heads said before Super Bowl 48. "The Seahawks haven't played a passing team like the Broncos!" It drove the hype train and the Broncos got whipped.

That's because being a great passing team is dependent on two independent actors acting in harmony to counteract individuals who want to stop them. When the defense is elite, they can disrupt timing, catch radius, tempo, passing lane vision, etc. Any those can cause a win for the defense. When everything fails for the defense that's when the offense finds success. Wazzu has only played one team with a good defense, but had the fortune of playing backups. The Air Raid succeeds in college and not so much in the NFL because of tackling quality. CU just happens to have several guys who will play on Sundays in this secondary.

Wazzu loses a guy who averages 13.2 YPR and takes focus off the top guy, but Wazzu fan doesn't think that's a problem. Their top guy faces a corner who hasn't given up >2 receptions in two months, but Wazzu fan doesn't think that's a problem.

Wazzu wins if we screw up. If CU's D does what it normally does, CU wins and covers.
 
My intuition was telling me to stay out of this one 'cause WSU looks like they are getting better and CU's offense looks like it is getting worse. Sometimes you do that 'transitive law of football' thing where you say ' they beat Az by this much and we only beat Az by that much." Now, after looking at the data I am in on this one. WSU has been playing weaker D's and CU has been playing stronger D's the past few weeks (though CU offense is still trending down a little even adjusting for those two D's) - that's what makes people say hmmm...I don't know. I realize that CFB is about individual match-ups getting exploited and chance plays a huge role...but that's true of any CFB game, not only this one. I don't see an obvious rock/paper/scissors match-up problem where CU is a good team but WSU exploits our weakness. Nonetheless, the team that would win in a best of 100 sometimes doesn't win the 1 game. So if you are gonna put down, you always accept that the ball sometimes bounces funny.
 
BuffUp said:
IPF is earning its value right now
Click to expand...

Not yet. First practice indoors all season due to weather? That's a pricey practice. (still nice to have though!)

To the debate: it will come down to how well does CU generate pass rush I think. If Leavitt brings some well timed surprise blitzes, this game is in the bag.
 
manhattanbuf said:
This whole thread reminds me of what fans and talking heads said before Super Bowl 48. "The Seahawks haven't played a passing team like the Broncos!" It drove the hype train and the Broncos got whipped.

That's because being a great passing team is dependent on two independent actors acting in harmony to counteract individuals who want to stop them. When the defense is elite, they can disrupt timing, catch radius, tempo, passing lane vision, etc. Any those can cause a win for the defense. When everything fails for the defense that's when the offense finds success. Wazzu has only played one team with a good defense, but had the fortune of playing backups. The Air Raid succeeds in college and not so much in the NFL because of tackling quality. CU just happens to have several guys who will play on Sundays in this secondary.

Wazzu loses a guy who averages 13.2 YPR and takes focus off the top guy, but Wazzu fan doesn't think that's a problem. Their top guy faces a corner who hasn't given up >2 receptions in two months, but Wazzu fan doesn't think that's a problem.

Wazzu wins if we screw up. If CU's D does what it normally does, CU wins and covers.
Click to expand...

Ok, rationalize it how you will, but winning is winning. I guess when Utah beats you and you lose the bowl game it will be because you screwed up too, not because another team could possibly be as good or better than the 8-2 Buffaloes.

In typical B12 mindset, CU fans think that shutting down the top WR option means the other teams passing offense will be stymied. Falk regularly hits between 8 and 10 targets a game, losing 1 (which has happened pretty much every game we've played with Leach, having either Cracraft or Marks out) isn't going to make our offense crumble. Cracraft was our #3 WR statistically, though he had been peaking lately, so we will miss his incredible ability to make the sideline and endzone catches. No doubt we would be better with him.
 
goalline said:
Not yet. First practice indoors all season due to weather? That's a pricey practice. (still nice to have though!)

To the debate: it will come down to how well does CU generate pass rush I think. If Leavitt brings some well timed surprise blitzes, this game is in the bag.
Click to expand...

you know that is going to happen.
 
And, similar to other little brothers, you simply think that good offense beats great defense.

BTW, all the numbers Falk has racked up this year are against some pretty wretched defenses. You say we haven't played anyone? That's cute. The average passing O's we've faced have been >15 teams better than the average passing D's wazzu has faced.

Average pass rank of relevant (no FCS) Wazzu pass defenses from 2016... 80.63

Average pass rank of relevant CU pass opponents (no FCS, including sub par games against CU)... 64.88

PS: while researching this post, I see wazzu's pass defense is #109 in the nation. Get ready for the #blackoutboyz lil homie.

BleedCrimsonandGray said:
Ok, rationalize it how you will, but winning is winning. I guess when Utah beats you and you lose
the bowl game it will be because you screwed up too, not because another team could possibly be as good or better than the 8-2 Buffaloes.

In typical B12 mindset, CU fans think that shutting down the top WR option means the other teams passing offense will be stymied. Falk regularly hits between 8 and 10 targets a game, losing 1 (which has happened pretty much every game we've played with Leach, having either Cracraft or Marks out) isn't going to make our offense crumble. Cracraft was our #3 WR statistically, though he had been peaking lately, so we will miss his incredible ability to make the sideline and endzone catches. No doubt we would be better with him.
Click to expand...
 
manhattanbuf said:
And, similar to other little brothers, you simply think that good offense beats great defense.

BTW, all the numbers Falk has racked up this year are against some pretty wretched defenses. You say we haven't played anyone? That's cute. The average passing O's we've faced have been >15 teams better than the average passing D's wazzu has faced.

Average pass rank of relevant (no FCS) Wazzu pass defenses from 2016... 80.63

Average pass rank of relevant CU pass opponents (no FCS, including sub par games against CU)... 64.88

PS: while researching this post, I see wazzu's pass defense is #109 in the nation. Get ready for the #blackoutboyz lil homie.
Click to expand...
 
BleedCrimsonandGray said:
Click to expand...

A favorite cinematic moment for me.

But...

I'm anxious for your rebuttal. If the common narrative from Coug fans is "CU's D hasn't faced an elite passing offense" isn't it fair to point out that the highly touted offense itself has only faced lower ranked defenses? That's not even crazy...that's like, like...rational man.
 
Very nervous for this game. I don't like the matchup. Both teams are hot, so one is in for a major letdown. The crowd needs to be loud.
 
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