2022-23 has been an absolute disappointment. I have not enjoyed this season like I normally enjoy basketball. Not even close.
Lack of focus, maturity and leadership doomed this season. I'm just going to call this "toughness". It's not "playing hard". I have no complaints about that and no fans should question that. There's a difference between playing hard and being tough, though. I'm talking about being able to describe a player or the team as "dialed in" or "relentless".
We're looking at a 17-16 record and a likely NIT bid.
I always agree with the Bill Parcells quote of "You are what your record says you are" - and that's my point. Forgetting the non-conference stuff while the team was finding itself, we can look at the Pac-12 conference season and point to just 4 games. We went 2-8 in conference road games. That includes 2 losses at the worst 2 teams in the league, Cal and OSU. Those are 2 teams that based on talent and general level of team play our Buffs should never lose to regardless of location. Then you can look at the home court advantage this team had, the generally good play at the Keg, and the program priding itself on that. Collapsing to give away an ASU game which was well in hand. That's a team CU actually beat on the road and is clearly better than. Then there was the 3 point home loss to Washington, a team that CU showed it is clearly better than yesterday -- winning by 6 on a neutral court despite being significantly short-handed (without our #2 & #3 season scorers along with being without our #2 three point shooter).
If this team had toughness, that's 4 wins. That's a 20-11 (12-8) season with a 4- or 5- seed in the P12T and a punched ticket to the Dance. But we are what our record says we are. What it says is that this year's team was soft and, because it was soft, pissed away what was right there for the taking.
So how does the team get tough for next year? Mostly it's going to take change and commitment, but I also see potential of building on what looked like some turning of the corner late in the year along with some highlight games earlier in the season (Tennessee, Texas A&M, the defense on the Oregon homestand, some others). Change and commitment, though, are the drivers. That will come through attrition, development, leadership and some impact newcomers.
Attrition. Gabbidon and Wright move on after this grad year. Both played hard. Athletically, I don't think that either was blessed with the gifts to consistently impact games at this level and that also meant that they weren't in a position to take on leadership roles to drive toughness. Those 2 were expected attrition. To make the recruiting numbers work (3 guys were signed), we need to see at least 1 guy transfer. I want to see 2 leave. Clifford and Allen both have the physical tools to be excellent Pac-12 starters, maybe even elite. But they're both soft on the court and we need to fix the toughness issue. Both need to move on. That gives us an extra spot (more on that later).
Development. Every single guy on this team needs to make a commitment to the weight room this offseason. Strength gives confidence. It's not just the physicality, it's also a mindset which leads directly to toughness. Beyond that, there's a need to put in the work on shooting. Too many guys were unplayable at the end of a close game because they couldn't be relied on to make a free throw in crunch time. Too many guys couldn't keep the defense honest in the mid range, let along behind the 3pt line. Lift and shoot. Every damn day this offseason.
On specific players, here's my basic development plan for next year and the 2 things that would make the biggest impact for them:
1. Tristan da Silva (Senior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Ball handling. He's so skilled and these are the things that would help him most to defeat double teams and overplays. It also takes him being a matchup nightmare to the next level. Very few college players can guard a TDS both in the post and on the perimeter. He can take that to a whole other level and be unstoppable. Strength & handle also make it so that it's easier to put up consistent numbers by setting yourself to get some easier buckets.
2. Luke O'Brien (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. He's clearly put in work in the weight room, so just needs to continue that commitment. I'm just looking for more efficiency and versatility here. LOB has shown he can be a capable starter as a glue guy. I think we need him to be a rotational guy who plays heavy minutes, almost like a 6th or 7th starter. Honestly, he's a plus starter recently this year so I consider it an absolute blessing and a testament to how good I believe this team can be that I'm looking at LOB as a rotational guy instead of as a starter. Since February, LOB's averaging 9.3p, 7.4r, 1.6a, 1s, 0.6b. Those are quality starter numbers. Those are 6th Man of the Year numbers coming off the bench and playing 20+ minutes a game.
3. J'Vonne Hadley (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. At Indian Hills CC, where he was an All-American as a sophomore, Hadley's shooting was 71.8% FT, 35.4% 3PT, 54.8% FG. At CU, those went to 55.8% FT, 0.0% 3PT, 52.5% FG. I don't care about the 3PT%. It's the mid-range he needs to keep teams honest (so he can play the high post as a Forward) and the FT% he needs so he can be on the court at the end of games. Similar to LOB in giving the Buffs a very versatile forward type who is similarly someone who can put up quality starter numbers or be an elite 6th man type. He averaged 8 & 6 playing 25 minutes a game this year. There's no reason he can't be just as productive next year with better versatility.
4. KJ Simpson (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. The shooting is coming. Charity stripe consistency his 2 seasons from frosh 77.0% to soph 81.7% shows that he's got a shooting stroke and the improvement shows that he's progressing. 3PT% is still below 30%. 33.3% is my target for next season. Overall FG% is still under 40% this year. Improving from 3 will help that, but the other thing that would make a huge impact would be increased strength. Finishing through traffic and not getting knocked off his spots will drive up his efficiency in a major way. It will also make a significant improvement to his defense.
5. Lawson Lovering (Junior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Shooting. I put the weight room first because I continue to believe that his defensive presence and offensive screens are so valuable that simply taking those aspects to the next level with increased strength/mass is the top priority. It also will increase his rebounding, reduce his turnovers and give a bump to his scoring since he'll be able to get the ball up & finish in traffic. With shooting, I'm talking about 2 moves and a reliable set shot from the FT line. LL needs: a) baby hook over the right shoulder; b) drop step & pivot to a left hand dunk/layup; and, c) 44.4% FT as a frosh / 38.1% FT as a soph - get that to 55-60% next season and use that shot to keep the defense honest from the high post. His last 6 games, LL is averaging 8 pts / 5.0 rbs / 1.0 bks while shooting 57%. It's frightening how much more game impact he can have with some very achievable improvements.
6. Julian Hammond III (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. As a frosh, JH3 was 41.5% 3PT, which dropped to 32.4% as a soph. Interestingly, there was improvement to form without the results from deep. This is evidenced by his FT going from 72.2% to 83.6%. It's there and he's poised to shoot at least 35% from deep next year and 38+% is well within reason. I went with "weight room" instead of "ball handling" for #2, but it was close. I love what a bulldog JH3 is when he gets in the lane. He's not going to out-quick too many Pac-12 PGs, so strength to hold his spot, finish through traffic, and be stronger on D would probably do the most for his game. I think increased strength also helps the ball handling anyway, since you don't get knocked off balance as much and you can better ward off with your off hand.
7. Javon Ruffin (Sophomore) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. I'm not going to complain about a guy who went 87.5% FT, 35.3% 3PT, 42.2% FG this year. But having him take that next step as a catch & shoot guy on the perimeter would be absolutely huge for this team. With that is his ball handling. Just like KJ needs to be able keep a defense honest by developing his perimeter shooting, JR needs to improve his handle to force the defense to give him a little space out of respect for what he can do off the bounce. A better handle also makes him more playable in crunch time, which should be his time as a shooter and as a closer from the FT line.
8. Joe Hurlburt (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. He needs to be a stretch-4 who can give us a bit of post defense and help us rebound. I don't know that he's going to play a lot of minutes, but when he does play he needs to bring the Lucas Siewert game by being 35+% 3PT / 75+% FT guy while being a front court body on defense.
9. RJ Smith (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. In high school, he was a back court glue guy. Basically, he needs to build his game into the Pac-12 version of what Ethan Wright was to the Ivy League. To do that, he needs to add strength and he has to be able to stretch the defense.
ALT. If Nique Clifford (Senior) or Quincy Allen (Sophomore) was to return, the priorities for both of them would be shooting and ball handling. They're finesse players who might use athleticism to track down some loose ball rebounds, but neither has any desire to be a banger. They should play to their identities and become the best open court & 1-on-1 scorers they can be.
Leadership. I don't know where this is going to come from in terms of a primary / alpha dog. It's easiest when it can come from your best player and/or your point guard. That's tough with this roster because TDS is not a vocal leader. He can develop a bit of that, but it's not who he is. So that means it needs to come from the PG position. KJ may not be our best player, but he was just named 2nd Team All-Conference and is the primary ball handler. He's a big game player and is never afraid of the big moment. Upperclassman maturity is the next step and that's what we need him to be next year. JH3 also gets some consideration here as another PG who has shown a lot of toughness and fight, with him often being at his best when the team has needed him to step up at the end of games. LOB for sure as a senior who is an adrenaline shot whenever he's on the court, but he doesn't have the game or the role to become the primary leader. And we can't forget defense and vocal communication on the court, which Lawson can take another step with as an upperclassman. In all, I see a good depth of leadership on next year's squad but a primary leader needs to develop and I think it has to be KJ.
Newcomers. Cody Williams (SF) is already being talked about as a Top 5 NBA draft pick in 2024. Assane Diop (PF) is an athletic 6'10" blue chip with rim protector potential. Courtney Anderson (SG) is an athletic upside combo guard in the Derrick White mold who needs to develop.
Right now, I'd project the starting lineup as:
PG1 - KJ Simpson
PG2 - Julian Hammond III
SF - Cody Williams
PF - Tristan da Silva
C - Lawson Lovering
Luke O'Brien, Javon Ruffin and J'Vonne Hadley round out my primary 8 and I could see any of them being the starter instead of JH3.
Joe Hurlburt and RJ Smith are probably 5-10 mpg guys who could be DNP-CD in March when the bench shortens.
Assane Diop and Courtney Anderson are guys I expect to redshirt but have the athleticism to blow up early and force their way onto the court.
The wildcard I'd put on that lineup is what Tad does with the last scholarship if we get the attrition I put in here. I think we need a guard. If you look at what we lost (graduation and attrition), it's 4 guys who were in the "wing" role this season. I think what we need most is perimeter shooting. I'd be happy with a transfer shooter who has some length/ athleticism. I'd be happy with a prep PG. I'd even be happy if we got back in on Brady Dunlap (back on market after Brey retired & he got Notre Dame to release him from his NLI), because there's nothing at all wrong with a 6'7" high efficiency scorer with the type of game you'd expect from a college coach's son.
Lack of focus, maturity and leadership doomed this season. I'm just going to call this "toughness". It's not "playing hard". I have no complaints about that and no fans should question that. There's a difference between playing hard and being tough, though. I'm talking about being able to describe a player or the team as "dialed in" or "relentless".
We're looking at a 17-16 record and a likely NIT bid.
I always agree with the Bill Parcells quote of "You are what your record says you are" - and that's my point. Forgetting the non-conference stuff while the team was finding itself, we can look at the Pac-12 conference season and point to just 4 games. We went 2-8 in conference road games. That includes 2 losses at the worst 2 teams in the league, Cal and OSU. Those are 2 teams that based on talent and general level of team play our Buffs should never lose to regardless of location. Then you can look at the home court advantage this team had, the generally good play at the Keg, and the program priding itself on that. Collapsing to give away an ASU game which was well in hand. That's a team CU actually beat on the road and is clearly better than. Then there was the 3 point home loss to Washington, a team that CU showed it is clearly better than yesterday -- winning by 6 on a neutral court despite being significantly short-handed (without our #2 & #3 season scorers along with being without our #2 three point shooter).
If this team had toughness, that's 4 wins. That's a 20-11 (12-8) season with a 4- or 5- seed in the P12T and a punched ticket to the Dance. But we are what our record says we are. What it says is that this year's team was soft and, because it was soft, pissed away what was right there for the taking.
So how does the team get tough for next year? Mostly it's going to take change and commitment, but I also see potential of building on what looked like some turning of the corner late in the year along with some highlight games earlier in the season (Tennessee, Texas A&M, the defense on the Oregon homestand, some others). Change and commitment, though, are the drivers. That will come through attrition, development, leadership and some impact newcomers.
Attrition. Gabbidon and Wright move on after this grad year. Both played hard. Athletically, I don't think that either was blessed with the gifts to consistently impact games at this level and that also meant that they weren't in a position to take on leadership roles to drive toughness. Those 2 were expected attrition. To make the recruiting numbers work (3 guys were signed), we need to see at least 1 guy transfer. I want to see 2 leave. Clifford and Allen both have the physical tools to be excellent Pac-12 starters, maybe even elite. But they're both soft on the court and we need to fix the toughness issue. Both need to move on. That gives us an extra spot (more on that later).
Development. Every single guy on this team needs to make a commitment to the weight room this offseason. Strength gives confidence. It's not just the physicality, it's also a mindset which leads directly to toughness. Beyond that, there's a need to put in the work on shooting. Too many guys were unplayable at the end of a close game because they couldn't be relied on to make a free throw in crunch time. Too many guys couldn't keep the defense honest in the mid range, let along behind the 3pt line. Lift and shoot. Every damn day this offseason.
On specific players, here's my basic development plan for next year and the 2 things that would make the biggest impact for them:
1. Tristan da Silva (Senior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Ball handling. He's so skilled and these are the things that would help him most to defeat double teams and overplays. It also takes him being a matchup nightmare to the next level. Very few college players can guard a TDS both in the post and on the perimeter. He can take that to a whole other level and be unstoppable. Strength & handle also make it so that it's easier to put up consistent numbers by setting yourself to get some easier buckets.
2. Luke O'Brien (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. He's clearly put in work in the weight room, so just needs to continue that commitment. I'm just looking for more efficiency and versatility here. LOB has shown he can be a capable starter as a glue guy. I think we need him to be a rotational guy who plays heavy minutes, almost like a 6th or 7th starter. Honestly, he's a plus starter recently this year so I consider it an absolute blessing and a testament to how good I believe this team can be that I'm looking at LOB as a rotational guy instead of as a starter. Since February, LOB's averaging 9.3p, 7.4r, 1.6a, 1s, 0.6b. Those are quality starter numbers. Those are 6th Man of the Year numbers coming off the bench and playing 20+ minutes a game.
3. J'Vonne Hadley (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. At Indian Hills CC, where he was an All-American as a sophomore, Hadley's shooting was 71.8% FT, 35.4% 3PT, 54.8% FG. At CU, those went to 55.8% FT, 0.0% 3PT, 52.5% FG. I don't care about the 3PT%. It's the mid-range he needs to keep teams honest (so he can play the high post as a Forward) and the FT% he needs so he can be on the court at the end of games. Similar to LOB in giving the Buffs a very versatile forward type who is similarly someone who can put up quality starter numbers or be an elite 6th man type. He averaged 8 & 6 playing 25 minutes a game this year. There's no reason he can't be just as productive next year with better versatility.
4. KJ Simpson (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. The shooting is coming. Charity stripe consistency his 2 seasons from frosh 77.0% to soph 81.7% shows that he's got a shooting stroke and the improvement shows that he's progressing. 3PT% is still below 30%. 33.3% is my target for next season. Overall FG% is still under 40% this year. Improving from 3 will help that, but the other thing that would make a huge impact would be increased strength. Finishing through traffic and not getting knocked off his spots will drive up his efficiency in a major way. It will also make a significant improvement to his defense.
5. Lawson Lovering (Junior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Shooting. I put the weight room first because I continue to believe that his defensive presence and offensive screens are so valuable that simply taking those aspects to the next level with increased strength/mass is the top priority. It also will increase his rebounding, reduce his turnovers and give a bump to his scoring since he'll be able to get the ball up & finish in traffic. With shooting, I'm talking about 2 moves and a reliable set shot from the FT line. LL needs: a) baby hook over the right shoulder; b) drop step & pivot to a left hand dunk/layup; and, c) 44.4% FT as a frosh / 38.1% FT as a soph - get that to 55-60% next season and use that shot to keep the defense honest from the high post. His last 6 games, LL is averaging 8 pts / 5.0 rbs / 1.0 bks while shooting 57%. It's frightening how much more game impact he can have with some very achievable improvements.
6. Julian Hammond III (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. As a frosh, JH3 was 41.5% 3PT, which dropped to 32.4% as a soph. Interestingly, there was improvement to form without the results from deep. This is evidenced by his FT going from 72.2% to 83.6%. It's there and he's poised to shoot at least 35% from deep next year and 38+% is well within reason. I went with "weight room" instead of "ball handling" for #2, but it was close. I love what a bulldog JH3 is when he gets in the lane. He's not going to out-quick too many Pac-12 PGs, so strength to hold his spot, finish through traffic, and be stronger on D would probably do the most for his game. I think increased strength also helps the ball handling anyway, since you don't get knocked off balance as much and you can better ward off with your off hand.
7. Javon Ruffin (Sophomore) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. I'm not going to complain about a guy who went 87.5% FT, 35.3% 3PT, 42.2% FG this year. But having him take that next step as a catch & shoot guy on the perimeter would be absolutely huge for this team. With that is his ball handling. Just like KJ needs to be able keep a defense honest by developing his perimeter shooting, JR needs to improve his handle to force the defense to give him a little space out of respect for what he can do off the bounce. A better handle also makes him more playable in crunch time, which should be his time as a shooter and as a closer from the FT line.
8. Joe Hurlburt (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. He needs to be a stretch-4 who can give us a bit of post defense and help us rebound. I don't know that he's going to play a lot of minutes, but when he does play he needs to bring the Lucas Siewert game by being 35+% 3PT / 75+% FT guy while being a front court body on defense.
9. RJ Smith (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. In high school, he was a back court glue guy. Basically, he needs to build his game into the Pac-12 version of what Ethan Wright was to the Ivy League. To do that, he needs to add strength and he has to be able to stretch the defense.
ALT. If Nique Clifford (Senior) or Quincy Allen (Sophomore) was to return, the priorities for both of them would be shooting and ball handling. They're finesse players who might use athleticism to track down some loose ball rebounds, but neither has any desire to be a banger. They should play to their identities and become the best open court & 1-on-1 scorers they can be.
Leadership. I don't know where this is going to come from in terms of a primary / alpha dog. It's easiest when it can come from your best player and/or your point guard. That's tough with this roster because TDS is not a vocal leader. He can develop a bit of that, but it's not who he is. So that means it needs to come from the PG position. KJ may not be our best player, but he was just named 2nd Team All-Conference and is the primary ball handler. He's a big game player and is never afraid of the big moment. Upperclassman maturity is the next step and that's what we need him to be next year. JH3 also gets some consideration here as another PG who has shown a lot of toughness and fight, with him often being at his best when the team has needed him to step up at the end of games. LOB for sure as a senior who is an adrenaline shot whenever he's on the court, but he doesn't have the game or the role to become the primary leader. And we can't forget defense and vocal communication on the court, which Lawson can take another step with as an upperclassman. In all, I see a good depth of leadership on next year's squad but a primary leader needs to develop and I think it has to be KJ.
Newcomers. Cody Williams (SF) is already being talked about as a Top 5 NBA draft pick in 2024. Assane Diop (PF) is an athletic 6'10" blue chip with rim protector potential. Courtney Anderson (SG) is an athletic upside combo guard in the Derrick White mold who needs to develop.
Right now, I'd project the starting lineup as:
PG1 - KJ Simpson
PG2 - Julian Hammond III
SF - Cody Williams
PF - Tristan da Silva
C - Lawson Lovering
Luke O'Brien, Javon Ruffin and J'Vonne Hadley round out my primary 8 and I could see any of them being the starter instead of JH3.
Joe Hurlburt and RJ Smith are probably 5-10 mpg guys who could be DNP-CD in March when the bench shortens.
Assane Diop and Courtney Anderson are guys I expect to redshirt but have the athleticism to blow up early and force their way onto the court.
The wildcard I'd put on that lineup is what Tad does with the last scholarship if we get the attrition I put in here. I think we need a guard. If you look at what we lost (graduation and attrition), it's 4 guys who were in the "wing" role this season. I think what we need most is perimeter shooting. I'd be happy with a transfer shooter who has some length/ athleticism. I'd be happy with a prep PG. I'd even be happy if we got back in on Brady Dunlap (back on market after Brey retired & he got Notre Dame to release him from his NLI), because there's nothing at all wrong with a 6'7" high efficiency scorer with the type of game you'd expect from a college coach's son.
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