What's new
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!

MBB - Change & Commitment for 2023-24

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
2022-23 has been an absolute disappointment. I have not enjoyed this season like I normally enjoy basketball. Not even close.

Lack of focus, maturity and leadership doomed this season. I'm just going to call this "toughness". It's not "playing hard". I have no complaints about that and no fans should question that. There's a difference between playing hard and being tough, though. I'm talking about being able to describe a player or the team as "dialed in" or "relentless".

We're looking at a 17-16 record and a likely NIT bid.

I always agree with the Bill Parcells quote of "You are what your record says you are" - and that's my point. Forgetting the non-conference stuff while the team was finding itself, we can look at the Pac-12 conference season and point to just 4 games. We went 2-8 in conference road games. That includes 2 losses at the worst 2 teams in the league, Cal and OSU. Those are 2 teams that based on talent and general level of team play our Buffs should never lose to regardless of location. Then you can look at the home court advantage this team had, the generally good play at the Keg, and the program priding itself on that. Collapsing to give away an ASU game which was well in hand. That's a team CU actually beat on the road and is clearly better than. Then there was the 3 point home loss to Washington, a team that CU showed it is clearly better than yesterday -- winning by 6 on a neutral court despite being significantly short-handed (without our #2 & #3 season scorers along with being without our #2 three point shooter).

If this team had toughness, that's 4 wins. That's a 20-11 (12-8) season with a 4- or 5- seed in the P12T and a punched ticket to the Dance. But we are what our record says we are. What it says is that this year's team was soft and, because it was soft, pissed away what was right there for the taking.

So how does the team get tough for next year? Mostly it's going to take change and commitment, but I also see potential of building on what looked like some turning of the corner late in the year along with some highlight games earlier in the season (Tennessee, Texas A&M, the defense on the Oregon homestand, some others). Change and commitment, though, are the drivers. That will come through attrition, development, leadership and some impact newcomers.

Attrition. Gabbidon and Wright move on after this grad year. Both played hard. Athletically, I don't think that either was blessed with the gifts to consistently impact games at this level and that also meant that they weren't in a position to take on leadership roles to drive toughness. Those 2 were expected attrition. To make the recruiting numbers work (3 guys were signed), we need to see at least 1 guy transfer. I want to see 2 leave. Clifford and Allen both have the physical tools to be excellent Pac-12 starters, maybe even elite. But they're both soft on the court and we need to fix the toughness issue. Both need to move on. That gives us an extra spot (more on that later).

Development. Every single guy on this team needs to make a commitment to the weight room this offseason. Strength gives confidence. It's not just the physicality, it's also a mindset which leads directly to toughness. Beyond that, there's a need to put in the work on shooting. Too many guys were unplayable at the end of a close game because they couldn't be relied on to make a free throw in crunch time. Too many guys couldn't keep the defense honest in the mid range, let along behind the 3pt line. Lift and shoot. Every damn day this offseason.

On specific players, here's my basic development plan for next year and the 2 things that would make the biggest impact for them:

1. Tristan da Silva (Senior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Ball handling. He's so skilled and these are the things that would help him most to defeat double teams and overplays. It also takes him being a matchup nightmare to the next level. Very few college players can guard a TDS both in the post and on the perimeter. He can take that to a whole other level and be unstoppable. Strength & handle also make it so that it's easier to put up consistent numbers by setting yourself to get some easier buckets.

2. Luke O'Brien (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. He's clearly put in work in the weight room, so just needs to continue that commitment. I'm just looking for more efficiency and versatility here. LOB has shown he can be a capable starter as a glue guy. I think we need him to be a rotational guy who plays heavy minutes, almost like a 6th or 7th starter. Honestly, he's a plus starter recently this year so I consider it an absolute blessing and a testament to how good I believe this team can be that I'm looking at LOB as a rotational guy instead of as a starter. Since February, LOB's averaging 9.3p, 7.4r, 1.6a, 1s, 0.6b. Those are quality starter numbers. Those are 6th Man of the Year numbers coming off the bench and playing 20+ minutes a game.

3. J'Vonne Hadley (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. At Indian Hills CC, where he was an All-American as a sophomore, Hadley's shooting was 71.8% FT, 35.4% 3PT, 54.8% FG. At CU, those went to 55.8% FT, 0.0% 3PT, 52.5% FG. I don't care about the 3PT%. It's the mid-range he needs to keep teams honest (so he can play the high post as a Forward) and the FT% he needs so he can be on the court at the end of games. Similar to LOB in giving the Buffs a very versatile forward type who is similarly someone who can put up quality starter numbers or be an elite 6th man type. He averaged 8 & 6 playing 25 minutes a game this year. There's no reason he can't be just as productive next year with better versatility.

4. KJ Simpson (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. The shooting is coming. Charity stripe consistency his 2 seasons from frosh 77.0% to soph 81.7% shows that he's got a shooting stroke and the improvement shows that he's progressing. 3PT% is still below 30%. 33.3% is my target for next season. Overall FG% is still under 40% this year. Improving from 3 will help that, but the other thing that would make a huge impact would be increased strength. Finishing through traffic and not getting knocked off his spots will drive up his efficiency in a major way. It will also make a significant improvement to his defense.

5. Lawson Lovering (Junior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Shooting. I put the weight room first because I continue to believe that his defensive presence and offensive screens are so valuable that simply taking those aspects to the next level with increased strength/mass is the top priority. It also will increase his rebounding, reduce his turnovers and give a bump to his scoring since he'll be able to get the ball up & finish in traffic. With shooting, I'm talking about 2 moves and a reliable set shot from the FT line. LL needs: a) baby hook over the right shoulder; b) drop step & pivot to a left hand dunk/layup; and, c) 44.4% FT as a frosh / 38.1% FT as a soph - get that to 55-60% next season and use that shot to keep the defense honest from the high post. His last 6 games, LL is averaging 8 pts / 5.0 rbs / 1.0 bks while shooting 57%. It's frightening how much more game impact he can have with some very achievable improvements.

6. Julian Hammond III (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. As a frosh, JH3 was 41.5% 3PT, which dropped to 32.4% as a soph. Interestingly, there was improvement to form without the results from deep. This is evidenced by his FT going from 72.2% to 83.6%. It's there and he's poised to shoot at least 35% from deep next year and 38+% is well within reason. I went with "weight room" instead of "ball handling" for #2, but it was close. I love what a bulldog JH3 is when he gets in the lane. He's not going to out-quick too many Pac-12 PGs, so strength to hold his spot, finish through traffic, and be stronger on D would probably do the most for his game. I think increased strength also helps the ball handling anyway, since you don't get knocked off balance as much and you can better ward off with your off hand.

7. Javon Ruffin (Sophomore) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. I'm not going to complain about a guy who went 87.5% FT, 35.3% 3PT, 42.2% FG this year. But having him take that next step as a catch & shoot guy on the perimeter would be absolutely huge for this team. With that is his ball handling. Just like KJ needs to be able keep a defense honest by developing his perimeter shooting, JR needs to improve his handle to force the defense to give him a little space out of respect for what he can do off the bounce. A better handle also makes him more playable in crunch time, which should be his time as a shooter and as a closer from the FT line.

8. Joe Hurlburt (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. He needs to be a stretch-4 who can give us a bit of post defense and help us rebound. I don't know that he's going to play a lot of minutes, but when he does play he needs to bring the Lucas Siewert game by being 35+% 3PT / 75+% FT guy while being a front court body on defense.

9. RJ Smith (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. In high school, he was a back court glue guy. Basically, he needs to build his game into the Pac-12 version of what Ethan Wright was to the Ivy League. To do that, he needs to add strength and he has to be able to stretch the defense.

ALT. If Nique Clifford (Senior) or Quincy Allen (Sophomore) was to return, the priorities for both of them would be shooting and ball handling. They're finesse players who might use athleticism to track down some loose ball rebounds, but neither has any desire to be a banger. They should play to their identities and become the best open court & 1-on-1 scorers they can be.

Leadership. I don't know where this is going to come from in terms of a primary / alpha dog. It's easiest when it can come from your best player and/or your point guard. That's tough with this roster because TDS is not a vocal leader. He can develop a bit of that, but it's not who he is. So that means it needs to come from the PG position. KJ may not be our best player, but he was just named 2nd Team All-Conference and is the primary ball handler. He's a big game player and is never afraid of the big moment. Upperclassman maturity is the next step and that's what we need him to be next year. JH3 also gets some consideration here as another PG who has shown a lot of toughness and fight, with him often being at his best when the team has needed him to step up at the end of games. LOB for sure as a senior who is an adrenaline shot whenever he's on the court, but he doesn't have the game or the role to become the primary leader. And we can't forget defense and vocal communication on the court, which Lawson can take another step with as an upperclassman. In all, I see a good depth of leadership on next year's squad but a primary leader needs to develop and I think it has to be KJ.

Newcomers. Cody Williams (SF) is already being talked about as a Top 5 NBA draft pick in 2024. Assane Diop (PF) is an athletic 6'10" blue chip with rim protector potential. Courtney Anderson (SG) is an athletic upside combo guard in the Derrick White mold who needs to develop.

Right now, I'd project the starting lineup as:

PG1 - KJ Simpson
PG2 - Julian Hammond III
SF - Cody Williams
PF - Tristan da Silva
C - Lawson Lovering

Luke O'Brien, Javon Ruffin and J'Vonne Hadley round out my primary 8 and I could see any of them being the starter instead of JH3.
Joe Hurlburt and RJ Smith are probably 5-10 mpg guys who could be DNP-CD in March when the bench shortens.
Assane Diop and Courtney Anderson are guys I expect to redshirt but have the athleticism to blow up early and force their way onto the court.

The wildcard I'd put on that lineup is what Tad does with the last scholarship if we get the attrition I put in here. I think we need a guard. If you look at what we lost (graduation and attrition), it's 4 guys who were in the "wing" role this season. I think what we need most is perimeter shooting. I'd be happy with a transfer shooter who has some length/ athleticism. I'd be happy with a prep PG. I'd even be happy if we got back in on Brady Dunlap (back on market after Brey retired & he got Notre Dame to release him from his NLI), because there's nothing at all wrong with a 6'7" high efficiency scorer with the type of game you'd expect from a college coach's son.
 
Last edited:
Well done in depth analysis. I enjoyed reading, seems in target to me. I think with the way they played the last 4 games although just 3-2 should provide every single returning and incoming players to work super hard this off season. I am guessing there will be a surprise or two, hopefully to the upside.
 
2022-23 has been an absolute disappointment. I have not enjoyed this season like I normally enjoy basketball. Not even close.

Lack of focus, maturity and leadership doomed this season. I'm just going to call this "toughness". It's not "playing hard". I have no complaints about that and no fans should question that. There's a difference between playing hard and being tough, though. I'm talking about being able to describe a player or the team as "dialed in" or "relentless".

We're looking at a 17-16 record and a likely NIT bid.

I always agree with the Bill Parcells quote of "You are what your record says you are" - and that's my point. Forgetting the non-conference stuff while the team was finding itself, we can look at the Pac-12 conference season and point to just 4 games. We went 2-8 in conference road games. That includes 2 losses at the worst 2 teams in the league, Cal and OSU. Those are 2 teams that based on talent and general level of team play our Buffs should never lose to regardless of location. Then you can look at the home court advantage this team had, the generally good play at the Keg, and the program priding itself on that. Collapsing to give away an ASU game which was well in hand. That's a team CU actually beat on the road and is clearly better than. Then there was the 3 point home loss to Washington, a team that CU showed it is clearly better than yesterday -- winning by 6 on a neutral court despite being significantly short-handed (without our #2 & #3 season scorers along with being without our #2 three point shooter).

If this team had toughness, that's 4 wins. That's a 20-11 (12-8) season with a 4- or 5- seed in the P12T and a punched ticket to the Dance. But we are what our record says we are. What it says is that this year's team was soft and, because it was soft, pissed away what was right there for the taking.

So how does the team get tough for next year? Mostly it's going to take change and commitment, but I also see potential of building on what looked like some turning of the corner late in the year along with some highlight games earlier in the season (Tennessee, Texas A&M, the defense on the Oregon homestand, some others). Change and commitment, though, are the drivers. That will come through attrition, development, leadership and some impact newcomers.

Attrition. Gabbidon and Wright move on after this grad year. Both played hard. Athletically, I don't think that either was blessed with the gifts to consistently impact games at this level and that also meant that they weren't in a position to take on leadership roles to drive toughness. Those 2 were expected attrition. To make the recruiting numbers work (3 guys were signed), we need to see at least 1 guy transfer. I want to see 2 leave. Clifford and Allen both have the physical tools to be excellent Pac-12 starters, maybe even elite. But they're both soft on the court and we need to fix the toughness issue. Both need to move on. That gives us an extra spot (more on that later).

Development. Every single guy on this team needs to make a commitment to the weight room this offseason. Strength gives confidence. It's not just the physicality, it's also a mindset which leads directly to toughness. Beyond that, there's a need to put in the work on shooting. Too many guys were unplayable at the end of a close game because they couldn't be relied on to make a free throw in crunch time. Too many guys couldn't keep the defense honest in the mid range, let along behind the 3pt line. Lift and shoot. Every damn day this offseason.

On specific players, here's my basic development plan for next year and the 2 things that would make the biggest impact for them:

1. Tristan da Silva (Senior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Ball handling. He's so skilled and these are the things that would help him most to defeat double teams and overplays. It also takes him being a matchup nightmare to the next level. Very few college players can guard a TDS both in the post and on the perimeter. He can take that to a whole other level and be unstoppable. Strength & handle also make it so that it's easier to put up consistent numbers by setting yourself to get some easier buckets.

2. Luke O'Brien (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. He's clearly put in work in the weight room, so just needs to continue that commitment. I'm just looking for more efficiency and versatility here. LOB has shown he can be a capable starter as a glue guy. I think we need him to be a rotational guy who plays heavy minutes, almost like a 6th or 7th starter. Honestly, he's a plus starter recently this year so I consider it an absolute blessing and a testament to how good I believe this team can be that I'm looking at LOB as a rotational guy instead of as a starter. Since February, LOB's averaging 9.3p, 7.4r, 1.6a, 1s, 0.6b. Those are quality starter numbers. Those are 6th Man of the Year numbers coming off the bench and playing 20+ minutes a game.

3. J'Vonne Hadley (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. At Indian Hills CC, where he was an All-American as a sophomore, Hadley's shooting was 71.8% FT, 35.4% 3PT, 54.8% FG. At CU, those went to 55.8% FT, 0.0% 3PT, 52.5% FG. I don't care about the 3PT%. It's the mid-range he needs to keep teams honest (so he can play the high post as a Forward) and the FT% he needs so he can be on the court at the end of games. Similar to LOB in giving the Buffs a very versatile forward type who is similarly someone who can put up quality starter numbers or be an elite 6th man type. He averaged 8 & 6 playing 25 minutes a game this year. There's no reason he can't be just as productive next year with better versatility.

4. KJ Simpson (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. The shooting is coming. Charity stripe consistency his 2 seasons from frosh 77.0% to soph 81.7% shows that he's got a shooting stroke and the improvement shows that he's progressing. 3PT% is still below 30%. 33.3% is my target for next season. Overall FG% is still under 40% this year. Improving from 3 will help that, but the other thing that would make a huge impact would be increased strength. Finishing through traffic and not getting knocked off his spots will drive up his efficiency in a major way. It will also make a significant improvement to his defense.

5. Lawson Lovering (Junior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Shooting. I put the weight room first because I continue to believe that his defensive presence and offensive screens are so valuable that simply taking those aspects to the next level with increased strength/mass is the top priority. It also will increase his rebounding, reduce his turnovers and give a bump to his scoring since he'll be able to get the ball up & finish in traffic. With shooting, I'm talking about 2 moves and a reliable set shot from the FT line. LL needs: a) baby hook over the right shoulder; b) drop step & pivot to a left hand dunk/layup; and, c) 44.4% FT as a frosh / 38.1% FT as a soph - get that to 55-60% next season and use that shot to keep the defense honest from the high post. His last 6 games, LL is averaging 8 pts / 5.0 rbs / 1.0 bks while shooting 57%. It's frightening how much more game impact he can have with some very achievable improvements.

6. Julian Hammond III (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. As a frosh, JH3 was 41.5% 3PT, which dropped to 32.4% as a soph. Interestingly, there was improvement to form without the results from deep. This is evidenced by his FT going from 72.2% to 83.6%. It's there and he's poised to shoot at least 35% from deep next year and 38+% is well within reason. I went with "weight room" instead of "ball handling" for #2, but it was close. I love what a bulldog JH3 is when he gets in the lane. He's not going to out-quick too many Pac-12 PGs, so strength to hold his spot, finish through traffic, and be stronger on D would probably do the most for his game. I think increased strength also helps the ball handling anyway, since you don't get knocked off balance as much and you can better ward off with your off hand.

7. Javon Ruffin (Sophomore) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. I'm not going to complain about a guy who went 87.5% FT, 35.3% 3PT, 42.2% FG this year. But having him take that next step as a catch & shoot guy on the perimeter would be absolutely huge for this team. With that is his ball handling. Just like KJ needs to be able keep a defense honest by developing his perimeter shooting, JR needs to improve his handle to force the defense to give him a little space out of respect for what he can do off the bounce. A better handle also makes him more playable in crunch time, which should be his time as a shooter and as a closer from the FT line.

8. Joe Hurlburt (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. He needs to be a stretch-4 who can give us a bit of post defense and help us rebound. I don't know that he's going to play a lot of minutes, but when he does play he needs to bring the Lucas Siewert game by being 35+% 3PT / 75+% FT guy while being a front court body on defense.

9. RJ Smith (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. In high school, he was a back court glue guy. Basically, he needs to build his game into the Pac-12 version of what Ethan Wright was to the Ivy League. To do that, he needs to add strength and he has to be able to stretch the defense.

ALT. If Nique Clifford (Senior) or Quincy Allen (Sophomore) was to return, the priorities for both of them would be shooting and ball handling. They're finesse players who might use athleticism to track down some loose ball rebounds, but neither has any desire to be a banger. They should play to their identities and become the best open court & 1-on-1 scorers they can be.

Leadership. I don't know where this is going to come from in terms of a primary / alpha dog. It's easiest when it can come from your best player and/or your point guard. That's tough with this roster because TDS is not a vocal leader. He can develop a bit of that, but it's not who he is. So that means it needs to come from the PG position. KJ may not be our best player, but he was just named 2nd Team All-Conference and is the primary ball handler. He's a big game player and is never afraid of the big moment. Upperclassman maturity is the next step and that's what we need him to be next year. JH3 also gets some consideration here as another PG who has shown a lot of toughness and fight, with him often being at his best when the team has needed him to step up at the end of games. LOB for sure as a senior who is an adrenaline shot whenever he's on the court, but he doesn't have the game or the role to become the primary leader. And we can't forget defense and vocal communication on the court, which Lawson can take another step with as an upperclassman. In all, I see a good depth of leadership on next year's squad but a primary leader needs to develop and I think it has to be KJ.

Newcomers. Cody Williams (SF) is already being talked about as a Top 5 NBA draft pick in 2024. Assane Diop (PF) is an athletic 6'10" blue chip with rim protector potential. Courtney Anderson (SG) is an athletic upside combo guard in the Derrick White mold who needs to develop.

Right now, I'd project the starting lineup as:

PG1 - KJ Simpson
PG2 - Julian Hammond III
SF - Cody Williams
PF - Tristan da Silva
C - Lawson Lovering

Luke O'Brien, Javon Ruffin and J'Vonne Hadley round out my primary 8 and I could see any of them being the starter instead of JH3.
Joe Hurlburt and RJ Smith are probably 5-10 mpg guys who could be DNP-CD in March when the bench shortens.
Assane Diop and Courtney Anderson are guys I expect to redshirt but have the athleticism to blow up early and force their way onto the court.

The wildcard I'd put on that lineup is what Tad does with the last scholarship if we get the attrition I put in here. I think we need a guard. If you look at what we lost (graduation and attrition), it's 4 guys who were in the "wing" role this season. I think what we need most is perimeter shooting. I'd be happy with a transfer shooter who has some length/ athleticism. I'd be happy with a prep PG. I'd even be happy if we got back in on Brady Dunlap (back on market after Brey retired & he got Notre Dame to release him from his NLI), because there's nothing at all wrong with a 6'7" high efficiency scorer with the type of game you'd expect from a college coach's son.
I'd still rather lose Hammond than Allen.

Connor Essegian should be on the market soon...go get him for the 2 guard spots.

Also that top 8...still just doesn't do it for me. LL has to make huge strides for that lineup to truly be formidable.
 
I'd still rather lose Hammond than Allen.

Connor Essegian should be on the market soon...go get him for the 2 guard spots.

Also that top 8...still just doesn't do it for me. LL has to make huge strides for that lineup to truly be formidable.
This is crazy to me. Did you watch Allen play? He has no idea how to play team basketball and he doesn't shoot well
 
I'd still rather lose Hammond than Allen.

Connor Essegian should be on the market soon...go get him for the 2 guard spots.

Also that top 8...still just doesn't do it for me. LL has to make huge strides for that lineup to truly be formidable.
Are you assuming Gard is fired? If he's not I'd be shocked if Essegian leaves after all BIG 10 freshman season and Wisconsin is a retain and develop program.


I've got my eyes on Jaylon Tyson of Texas Tech. Fits @Buffnik 6'7 scorer description perfectly. Brother plays on CUFB and was looking at CU last year. His head coach just got canned at Tech.
 
Other goal of mine for next year. Health!

Our only 4 players to play in every game this year. Tristan, Julian, Nique and Ethan. That's our top scorer, number 4, number 7, and number 10.

Last year our top 3 scorers, Evan, Bari, and Kee played in every game and Tristan and KJ only missed 1 or 2.

Every team has injuries and illness, this just seemed to be a particularly bad year for it. Some of it ties with the toughness piece. Flashback to when Kin played most of a year with a torn labrum. Who on this years team would have done that?
 
Good analysis Nik. We talked about the Buffs future after the game. Tough-tough season. Tad was real streamed at the end of the game. I have not seen it to that degree before. I don't think the Buffs got the benefit of the calls yesterday, but it seemed to be some overall frustration from the season boiling over. I love the incoming recruiting class, and hope our Blue-Blue chip is not a one-and-doner. It sounds like you thing that he will transfer, but If he can turn Quincy Allen around that could be a wildcard. I just hope that they can gel and Tad is not worn out. After next year, if they have a good season, with all the departures it could be a rebuild.
 
Other goal of mine for next year. Health!

Our only 4 players to play in every game this year. Tristan, Julian, Nique and Ethan. That's our top scorer, number 4, number 7, and number 10.

Last year our top 3 scorers, Evan, Bari, and Kee played in every game and Tristan and KJ only missed 1 or 2.

Every team has injuries and illness, this just seemed to be a particularly bad year for it. Some of it ties with the toughness piece. Flashback to when Kin played most of a year with a torn labrum. Who on this years team would have done that?

Yep. Use Ruffin as an example. When he was on the floor and fully healthy, he was an impact player. Seems like that was for only about 12 games this year. He played in 24 games, but about half of those he seemed less than 100%.
 
Yep. Use Ruffin as an example. When he was on the floor and fully healthy, he was an impact player. Seems like that was for only about 12 games this year. He played in 24 games, but about half of those he seemed less than 100%.
Ruffin's knee is a big time concern. Whatever he did to it has not healed right. I hope he doesn't lose the whole offseason getting it fixed. He was really becoming a key player when he went down.
 
Ruffin's knee is a big time concern. Whatever he did to it has not healed right. I hope he doesn't lose the whole offseason getting it fixed. He was really becoming a key player when he went down.
I'd hope he doesn't miss off-season time too, but getting his knee 100 is most important.
 
A friend was told directly by Tad a couple weeks ago that he was very frustrated that this team "won't work hard". Said friend said Tad has not said anything like that to him since back to when CU hired him.

Could be Tad has some issues in his coaching. Could be a mix of players this year. Year-to-year teams change.
 
I think we have to consider Cody Williams a lock to both start and see significant minutes. I imagine that was guaranteed by the staff as part of his commitment and given his talent will also be deserved. He has the height but he is slight of frame, so I could see him starting at the 2 with Hammond running the second unit. That bumps either Nique (if he stays), LOB, or Hadley into the starting lineup with Ruffin being a wildcard depending on health.

Ideally you probably have 2 of Hammond, Simpson, De Silva and Williams on the floor at all times. I don't like having Hadley and Lovering on the floor at the same time because it destroys spacing (clogs the paint) to have 2 non-shooters in the same lineup. I know Tad likes LOB coming off the bench so there is a path to Nique being the 5th starter, which means that Allen could be the transfer.

I think those pointing to Hammond as a transfer haven't paid attention to what Tad values in players. Hammond is the definition of a Tad guy. I think his run at the end of the season solidifies his place on the team. Plus as a 2-sport athlete (starting QB for 6A championship football team) I thought he might take a little longer to develop.
 
Ideally you probably have 2 of Hammond, Simpson, De Silva and Williams on the floor at all times. I don't like having Hadley and Lovering on the floor at the same time because it destroys spacing (clogs the paint) to have 2 non-shooters in the same lineup. I know Tad likes LOB coming off the bench so there is a path to Nique being the 5th starter, which means that Allen could be the transfer.
I don't like saying things like this, but I do not want Nique on this team next year. Don't know if he is a realistic transfer candidate or not.
 
I think our best-5 lineup next year could be Lovering, LOB, Williams, De Silva, Simpson. LOB gives the toughness and rebounding of Hadley and still provides spacing. But Tad seemed hesitant to give LOB the starting role, maybe for rotational balance? If that changes then I could see a change of scenery for Nique being best for all parties.

If I was confident in Ruffin's health I could also see him being in the mix as a starter next year.
 
I think our best-5 lineup next year could be Lovering, LOB, Williams, De Silva, Simpson. LOB gives the toughness and rebounding of Hadley and still provides spacing. But Tad seemed hesitant to give LOB the starting role, maybe for rotational balance? If that changes then I could see a change of scenery for Nique being best for all parties.
LOB is soooo good at bringing the energy off the bench. You need that guy, he can still finish games, and he'll absolutely be on the floor ahead of Lawson if you need offense in end game.
 
I don't like saying things like this, but I do not want Nique on this team next year. Don't know if he is a realistic transfer candidate or not.
Please. Please. Don't make me watch more of that. I've heard he's a potential transfer.
 
LOB is soooo good at bringing the energy off the bench. You need that guy, he can still finish games, and he'll absolutely be on the floor ahead of Lawson if you need offense in end game.

I think this was Tad's point of view, up until he was forced to start LOB. Now I don't think he sees him as necessarily an off-the-bench guy. Could be he gets beat out for a starting job, though. The real question I have is who will be the staring 2. It won't be Nique and it won't be Hammond. Starters could be: KJ, Williams, LOB/Hadley, Da Silva, LL.
 
I think it's a good bet that TDS + KJ + Cody is good for 40 points a game.

I think it's also a good bet that LL, LOB, JH3, JR & Hadley are good for 7ppg each (35 points a game total).

I think I'm being conservative here. I'm not worried about being able to score enough points. Finding 75 points of scoring is easy with this bunch.

I'm worried about all the efficiency stuff. If this team wins the offensive glass, gets to the line more than opponents, forces opponents to make tough shots, and keeps turnovers down to a middling number, there aren't going to be many teams that can beat us.
 
Hey Nik, can I have my keyboard back? ;)

I don't know who is out there, don't spend much time on basketball recruiting but would not have a problem if a scholly opens up.

If it does I'd love to see Tad go after a glue guy, an on the floor leader.

We have seen over the years that Tad doesn't believe he needs a true PG type but when he has had one, especially one who had leadership qualities our teams have done well.

Keep in mind that Kin was a late addition to the class when he came to Boulder.

Nik did a great job of laying out our unnecessary losses. This team had talent, even with the injuries this team was more talented than a 16 win team. Put Kin on this team, the Kin from any of his years in Boulder, move KJ to the 2, and try to convince me that this isn't at least a 22 win team that is planning a trip to the Dance.
 
An absolutely fantastic write-up! I agree this team was soft as hell and had ZERO leadership. Random musings...
- Clifford needs to be gone yesterday. Zero toughness, zero true basketball skills, zero leadership. He's athletic. Let him go be athletic in the Big Sky - where honestly I don't even see him having the same type of success Kountz had.
- Lovering needs a mentor. Tad needs to bring in a "big" coach this offseason who works exclusively with LL. Develop a pump hesi move, develop a go-to baby hook, develop a move off the pick and roll and work on FTs.
- Worried about Ruffin's health. I don't see Ruffin giving us more than 20 games a season the rest of his time here. We just need to squeeze everything we can out of those games.
- I'm not as hyped for Hurlburt as others seem to be. I just don't see it and I've heard concerning things from some folks in the know.
- Weight room. Fire the entire staff. I said it in other threads throughout the year, but we look like middles schoolers compared to every other team in the conference.
- Hammond should never start. Use him as a kick start guy off the bench to give our opponent's 2nd group fits.
- I think people are going to be surprised at how game ready Diop will be next year. Predicting now he leapfrogs Hurlburt in camp.
- Used to hate on him, but now I love me some LOB. Took him a bit to figure out his role, but he did an I'm glad. Luuuuuke!
- Go get a shooter. From a legit team/conference, please.

Early Starting 5 Prediction:
KJ
Williams
Hadley
TDS
Lovering

Next 4
LOB
Ruffin
Hammond
Diop
 
I think we have to consider Cody Williams a lock to both start and see significant minutes. I imagine that was guaranteed by the staff as part of his commitment and given his talent will also be deserved. He has the height but he is slight of frame, so I could see him starting at the 2 with Hammond running the second unit. That bumps either Nique (if he stays), LOB, or Hadley into the starting lineup with Ruffin being a wildcard depending on health.

Ideally you probably have 2 of Hammond, Simpson, De Silva and Williams on the floor at all times. I don't like having Hadley and Lovering on the floor at the same time because it destroys spacing (clogs the paint) to have 2 non-shooters in the same lineup. I know Tad likes LOB coming off the bench so there is a path to Nique being the 5th starter, which means that Allen could be the transfer.

I think those pointing to Hammond as a transfer haven't paid attention to what Tad values in players. Hammond is the definition of a Tad guy. I think his run at the end of the season solidifies his place on the team. Plus as a 2-sport athlete (starting QB for 6A championship football team) I thought he might take a little longer to develop.
Clifford needs to go. End of story.
 
Please. Please. Don't make me watch more of that. I've heard he's a potential transfer.
85 South Praying GIF by BET Hip Hop Awards
 
I think this was Tad's point of view, up until he was forced to start LOB. Now I don't think he sees him as necessarily an off-the-bench guy. Could be he gets beat out for a starting job, though. The real question I have is who will be the staring 2. It won't be Nique and it won't be Hammond. Starters could be: KJ, Williams, LOB/Hadley, Da Silva, LL.
Williams will be the #2 next year GUARANTEED.
 
Are you assuming Gard is fired? If he's not I'd be shocked if Essegian leaves after all BIG 10 freshman season and Wisconsin is a retain and develop program.


I've got my eyes on Jaylon Tyson of Texas Tech. Fits @Buffnik 6'7 scorer description perfectly. Brother plays on CUFB and was looking at CU last year. His head coach just got canned at Tech.
No. Indiana AAU insider says Essegian has been working the back channels for weeks looking for a new home.
 
This is crazy to me. Did you watch Allen play? He has no idea how to play team basketball and he doesn't shoot well
It's the potential upside if he ever escapes the AAU, alpha dog, HS mindset.

Also, I think even you would admit its silly to judge a guy's shooting on 24 total shots.

He's a black hole on offense right now, obviously, and his defense struggles because he's always looking for his next shot, even on that side of the floor.

The only hope he turns it around is someone in his family whoops him upside the head and gets him to listen. I just can't give up on a guy with those physical tools.
 
It's the potential upside if he ever escapes the AAU, alpha dog, HS mindset.

Also, I think even you would admit its silly to judge a guy's shooting on 24 total shots.

He's a black hole on offense right now, obviously, and his defense struggles because he's always looking for his next shot, even on that side of the floor.

The only hope he turns it around is someone in his family whoops him upside the head and gets him to listen. I just can't give up on a guy with those physical tools.
I agree, small sample size, but after 2 years in the program you have wonder if this is the place where he will decide to be a team basketball player or if he's even capable of it. I'd much rather use that scholarship on someone else at this point assuming Tad can find the right fit, which isn't a high bar. The dude contributed less than Ethan Wright this year!

Probably moot though. He's almost certainly gone.
 
2022-23 has been an absolute disappointment. I have not enjoyed this season like I normally enjoy basketball. Not even close.

Lack of focus, maturity and leadership doomed this season. I'm just going to call this "toughness". It's not "playing hard". I have no complaints about that and no fans should question that. There's a difference between playing hard and being tough, though. I'm talking about being able to describe a player or the team as "dialed in" or "relentless".

We're looking at a 17-16 record and a likely NIT bid.

I always agree with the Bill Parcells quote of "You are what your record says you are" - and that's my point. Forgetting the non-conference stuff while the team was finding itself, we can look at the Pac-12 conference season and point to just 4 games. We went 2-8 in conference road games. That includes 2 losses at the worst 2 teams in the league, Cal and OSU. Those are 2 teams that based on talent and general level of team play our Buffs should never lose to regardless of location. Then you can look at the home court advantage this team had, the generally good play at the Keg, and the program priding itself on that. Collapsing to give away an ASU game which was well in hand. That's a team CU actually beat on the road and is clearly better than. Then there was the 3 point home loss to Washington, a team that CU showed it is clearly better than yesterday -- winning by 6 on a neutral court despite being significantly short-handed (without our #2 & #3 season scorers along with being without our #2 three point shooter).

If this team had toughness, that's 4 wins. That's a 20-11 (12-8) season with a 4- or 5- seed in the P12T and a punched ticket to the Dance. But we are what our record says we are. What it says is that this year's team was soft and, because it was soft, pissed away what was right there for the taking.

So how does the team get tough for next year? Mostly it's going to take change and commitment, but I also see potential of building on what looked like some turning of the corner late in the year along with some highlight games earlier in the season (Tennessee, Texas A&M, the defense on the Oregon homestand, some others). Change and commitment, though, are the drivers. That will come through attrition, development, leadership and some impact newcomers.

Attrition. Gabbidon and Wright move on after this grad year. Both played hard. Athletically, I don't think that either was blessed with the gifts to consistently impact games at this level and that also meant that they weren't in a position to take on leadership roles to drive toughness. Those 2 were expected attrition. To make the recruiting numbers work (3 guys were signed), we need to see at least 1 guy transfer. I want to see 2 leave. Clifford and Allen both have the physical tools to be excellent Pac-12 starters, maybe even elite. But they're both soft on the court and we need to fix the toughness issue. Both need to move on. That gives us an extra spot (more on that later).

Development. Every single guy on this team needs to make a commitment to the weight room this offseason. Strength gives confidence. It's not just the physicality, it's also a mindset which leads directly to toughness. Beyond that, there's a need to put in the work on shooting. Too many guys were unplayable at the end of a close game because they couldn't be relied on to make a free throw in crunch time. Too many guys couldn't keep the defense honest in the mid range, let along behind the 3pt line. Lift and shoot. Every damn day this offseason.

On specific players, here's my basic development plan for next year and the 2 things that would make the biggest impact for them:

1. Tristan da Silva (Senior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Ball handling. He's so skilled and these are the things that would help him most to defeat double teams and overplays. It also takes him being a matchup nightmare to the next level. Very few college players can guard a TDS both in the post and on the perimeter. He can take that to a whole other level and be unstoppable. Strength & handle also make it so that it's easier to put up consistent numbers by setting yourself to get some easier buckets.

2. Luke O'Brien (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. He's clearly put in work in the weight room, so just needs to continue that commitment. I'm just looking for more efficiency and versatility here. LOB has shown he can be a capable starter as a glue guy. I think we need him to be a rotational guy who plays heavy minutes, almost like a 6th or 7th starter. Honestly, he's a plus starter recently this year so I consider it an absolute blessing and a testament to how good I believe this team can be that I'm looking at LOB as a rotational guy instead of as a starter. Since February, LOB's averaging 9.3p, 7.4r, 1.6a, 1s, 0.6b. Those are quality starter numbers. Those are 6th Man of the Year numbers coming off the bench and playing 20+ minutes a game.

3. J'Vonne Hadley (Senior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. At Indian Hills CC, where he was an All-American as a sophomore, Hadley's shooting was 71.8% FT, 35.4% 3PT, 54.8% FG. At CU, those went to 55.8% FT, 0.0% 3PT, 52.5% FG. I don't care about the 3PT%. It's the mid-range he needs to keep teams honest (so he can play the high post as a Forward) and the FT% he needs so he can be on the court at the end of games. Similar to LOB in giving the Buffs a very versatile forward type who is similarly someone who can put up quality starter numbers or be an elite 6th man type. He averaged 8 & 6 playing 25 minutes a game this year. There's no reason he can't be just as productive next year with better versatility.

4. KJ Simpson (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. The shooting is coming. Charity stripe consistency his 2 seasons from frosh 77.0% to soph 81.7% shows that he's got a shooting stroke and the improvement shows that he's progressing. 3PT% is still below 30%. 33.3% is my target for next season. Overall FG% is still under 40% this year. Improving from 3 will help that, but the other thing that would make a huge impact would be increased strength. Finishing through traffic and not getting knocked off his spots will drive up his efficiency in a major way. It will also make a significant improvement to his defense.

5. Lawson Lovering (Junior) -- 1. Weight room. 2. Shooting. I put the weight room first because I continue to believe that his defensive presence and offensive screens are so valuable that simply taking those aspects to the next level with increased strength/mass is the top priority. It also will increase his rebounding, reduce his turnovers and give a bump to his scoring since he'll be able to get the ball up & finish in traffic. With shooting, I'm talking about 2 moves and a reliable set shot from the FT line. LL needs: a) baby hook over the right shoulder; b) drop step & pivot to a left hand dunk/layup; and, c) 44.4% FT as a frosh / 38.1% FT as a soph - get that to 55-60% next season and use that shot to keep the defense honest from the high post. His last 6 games, LL is averaging 8 pts / 5.0 rbs / 1.0 bks while shooting 57%. It's frightening how much more game impact he can have with some very achievable improvements.

6. Julian Hammond III (Junior) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. As a frosh, JH3 was 41.5% 3PT, which dropped to 32.4% as a soph. Interestingly, there was improvement to form without the results from deep. This is evidenced by his FT going from 72.2% to 83.6%. It's there and he's poised to shoot at least 35% from deep next year and 38+% is well within reason. I went with "weight room" instead of "ball handling" for #2, but it was close. I love what a bulldog JH3 is when he gets in the lane. He's not going to out-quick too many Pac-12 PGs, so strength to hold his spot, finish through traffic, and be stronger on D would probably do the most for his game. I think increased strength also helps the ball handling anyway, since you don't get knocked off balance as much and you can better ward off with your off hand.

7. Javon Ruffin (Sophomore) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Ball handling. I'm not going to complain about a guy who went 87.5% FT, 35.3% 3PT, 42.2% FG this year. But having him take that next step as a catch & shoot guy on the perimeter would be absolutely huge for this team. With that is his ball handling. Just like KJ needs to be able keep a defense honest by developing his perimeter shooting, JR needs to improve his handle to force the defense to give him a little space out of respect for what he can do off the bounce. A better handle also makes him more playable in crunch time, which should be his time as a shooter and as a closer from the FT line.

8. Joe Hurlburt (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. He needs to be a stretch-4 who can give us a bit of post defense and help us rebound. I don't know that he's going to play a lot of minutes, but when he does play he needs to bring the Lucas Siewert game by being 35+% 3PT / 75+% FT guy while being a front court body on defense.

9. RJ Smith (Freshman) -- 1. Shooting. 2. Weight room. In high school, he was a back court glue guy. Basically, he needs to build his game into the Pac-12 version of what Ethan Wright was to the Ivy League. To do that, he needs to add strength and he has to be able to stretch the defense.

ALT. If Nique Clifford (Senior) or Quincy Allen (Sophomore) was to return, the priorities for both of them would be shooting and ball handling. They're finesse players who might use athleticism to track down some loose ball rebounds, but neither has any desire to be a banger. They should play to their identities and become the best open court & 1-on-1 scorers they can be.

Leadership. I don't know where this is going to come from in terms of a primary / alpha dog. It's easiest when it can come from your best player and/or your point guard. That's tough with this roster because TDS is not a vocal leader. He can develop a bit of that, but it's not who he is. So that means it needs to come from the PG position. KJ may not be our best player, but he was just named 2nd Team All-Conference and is the primary ball handler. He's a big game player and is never afraid of the big moment. Upperclassman maturity is the next step and that's what we need him to be next year. JH3 also gets some consideration here as another PG who has shown a lot of toughness and fight, with him often being at his best when the team has needed him to step up at the end of games. LOB for sure as a senior who is an adrenaline shot whenever he's on the court, but he doesn't have the game or the role to become the primary leader. And we can't forget defense and vocal communication on the court, which Lawson can take another step with as an upperclassman. In all, I see a good depth of leadership on next year's squad but a primary leader needs to develop and I think it has to be KJ.

Newcomers. Cody Williams (SF) is already being talked about as a Top 5 NBA draft pick in 2024. Assane Diop (PF) is an athletic 6'10" blue chip with rim protector potential. Courtney Anderson (SG) is an athletic upside combo guard in the Derrick White mold who needs to develop.

Right now, I'd project the starting lineup as:

PG1 - KJ Simpson
PG2 - Julian Hammond III
SF - Cody Williams
PF - Tristan da Silva
C - Lawson Lovering

Luke O'Brien, Javon Ruffin and J'Vonne Hadley round out my primary 8 and I could see any of them being the starter instead of JH3.
Joe Hurlburt and RJ Smith are probably 5-10 mpg guys who could be DNP-CD in March when the bench shortens.
Assane Diop and Courtney Anderson are guys I expect to redshirt but have the athleticism to blow up early and force their way onto the court.

The wildcard I'd put on that lineup is what Tad does with the last scholarship if we get the attrition I put in here. I think we need a guard. If you look at what we lost (graduation and attrition), it's 4 guys who were in the "wing" role this season. I think what we need most is perimeter shooting. I'd be happy with a transfer shooter who has some length/ athleticism. I'd be happy with a prep PG. I'd even be happy if we got back in on Brady Dunlap (back on market after Brey retired & he got Notre Dame to release him from his NLI), because there's nothing at all wrong with a 6'7" high efficiency scorer with the type of game you'd expect from a college coach's son.
You have an enviable supply of energy. Great post. We beat #2 Tenn, played #2 UCla very tough 3 times. If LL can improve his game 15% or so, we will be very, very good
 
Back
Top