CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wow. BC three with 8 seconds left to take the lead over UVA
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2012-13 Bubble Watch
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
BC beats UVA by 1 after the Hoos blow a sizable lead. UVA falls to 20-9 (10-6). That's a bad loss for UVA. Not quite a bubble burst, but they're in trouble. Need to win their remaining two games @ Florida State, Maryland at home.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
They are clones. It's been this way for years. Football has eerie similarities most years as well.
That really hurts them, but the bright side for them is the bubble became much softer this weekend. They need to win their final two games, though.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Damm, tough loss for UVA. Winning at FSU won't be easy.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
FSU is obviously way down, but UVA traditionally struggles to win in Tallahassee. Bubble is much softer from recent developments, but anything less than 2-0 to finish the regular season makes the Tournament quite unlikely, IMO.
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whatthebuff
Club Member
I wonder if the selection geezers are going to punish UVA for their 302 ranked non conf schedule.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Very possible, if not likely. The shame of the matter is they were in the Preseason NIT and had the chance to play Kansas State and Michigan, but ****ed up while injured and ended up playing patsies in some consolation round.
Meanwhile, some team or two with no top 50 wins may get in.
Not like we haven't seen this before...
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Lunardi saying "Virginia is still above the Last Four In". He might be right, the bubble is so ridiculously soft right now, but I'm not certain I buy that with their weak OOC SOS and the pile of bad losses. They're a prime candidate to meet a fate similar to the 2011 Buffs. Win their last 2, and their chances are good though, IMO (just not sure I believe they're going to do that).
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I lurk some other boards, and the conventional wisdom is that CU is in.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Just a couple bubble games Monday
Cincinnati at Louisville: Cincinnati 20-9 (8-8) RPI 49. Cincinnati beat UConn at home after a 3 game skid and dropping 5/6. They have no bad losses, and wins over Marquette, @ Pitt, UConn, Oregon, Iowa State. After @ Louisville, they finish with @ South Florida. The Bearcats are essentially in after beating UConn. No one is going to fault them if they lose @ Louisville (which they presumably will). Only way there's going to be any question is if they lost 3 in a row before Selection Sunday, and even with Cincinnati sliding, that's highly unlikely.
Baylor @ Texas: Baylor 17-12 (8-8) RPI 60. Baylor is somehow still hanging around. They're on the outside, but they still have a chance, despite going 3-7 in their last 10 games (with the 3 wins being junk) thanks to nearly every other bubble team losing this weekend (many of them atrocious losses). They definitely might come to regret that home loss to K-State in the final seconds when all is finished, though. They certainly need to win at Texas, a sub-100 loss would likely be the nail in the coffin. After this, they finish the regular season with Kansas visiting Waco. The resume doesn't have much meat: wins over Oklahoma State, @ Kentucky. Losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Yet, remarkably, they're still very much in the picture with a chance to sneak in. They should feel very fortunate, all things considered..
Cincinnati at Louisville: Cincinnati 20-9 (8-8) RPI 49. Cincinnati beat UConn at home after a 3 game skid and dropping 5/6. They have no bad losses, and wins over Marquette, @ Pitt, UConn, Oregon, Iowa State. After @ Louisville, they finish with @ South Florida. The Bearcats are essentially in after beating UConn. No one is going to fault them if they lose @ Louisville (which they presumably will). Only way there's going to be any question is if they lost 3 in a row before Selection Sunday, and even with Cincinnati sliding, that's highly unlikely.
Baylor @ Texas: Baylor 17-12 (8-8) RPI 60. Baylor is somehow still hanging around. They're on the outside, but they still have a chance, despite going 3-7 in their last 10 games (with the 3 wins being junk) thanks to nearly every other bubble team losing this weekend (many of them atrocious losses). They definitely might come to regret that home loss to K-State in the final seconds when all is finished, though. They certainly need to win at Texas, a sub-100 loss would likely be the nail in the coffin. After this, they finish the regular season with Kansas visiting Waco. The resume doesn't have much meat: wins over Oklahoma State, @ Kentucky. Losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Yet, remarkably, they're still very much in the picture with a chance to sneak in. They should feel very fortunate, all things considered..
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Cincinnati loses at Louisville. Bearcats fall to 20-10 (8-9) RPI 49. They have lost 4/5, 6/8. However, the chances are still overwhelming that they get in with the bubble in its current state. Only losing their remaining regular season game: South Florida, and then taking another bad loss in their first game of the Big East tournament would cause Cincinnati to have any real chance of being left out. And honestly, even then, they probably still get in. As it stands now they have good wins over Marquette, Pittsburgh, UConn Oregon and Iowa State. And crucially, no bad losses.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
So, Bayor loses at Texas, a sub-100 loss. Baylor falls to 17-13 (8-9). One current top 50 win: Oklahoma State. (They've beaten Kentucky who is just outside the top 50). Now three sub-100 losses: Charleston, Northwestern, Texas. They have one last regular season game: Kansas in Waco. Tonight was pretty much the final nail in the coffin for their hopes, although a miraculous win over Kansas would probably revive their hopes and give them a puncher's chance to sneak in if they had a solid Big XII Tournament. It sounds ridiculous to be saying that, but the bubble is just so soft...the reality is a few sucky teams are going to slip in.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Tuesday's bubble games:
St. John's @ Notre Dame: St. John's 16-12 (8-8) RPI 71. A home loss to Pittsburgh, followed by a loss @ Providence, has made the Johnnies a fringe bubble team. It's quite simple: they need to win @ Notre Dame on Tuesday, and then follow that up with a home win over Marquette to wrap up the regular season. Then, they'll need a solid Big East Tournament. That's the only path to the Dance for St. John's. Bad losses to UNC-Asheville, San Francisco, Murray State (that's a sub-100 loss now) and Rutgers. Their best wins are Notre Dame, UConn and Cincinnati. They've lost 4 out of 5 now. It's a big time strong finish or bust for Steve Lavin and St. John's.
Arkansas @ Missouri: Arkansas 18-11 (9-7) RPI 80. Another major, major longshot. However, Lunardi still has them hanging on the fringe (8th team out). They beat Kentucky at home to revive their slim hopes, and how must win @ Mizzou, beat Texas A&M at home to close the regular season, and then have a strong SEC Tournament to give themselves any real hope. The positives are they do have wins over Florida, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky. However, they have bad losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt and are 1-8 in true road games this season with the one win being a nailbiter over 9-20 Auburn.
Southern Miss @ Marshall: Southern Miss 22-7 (11-3) RPI 34. Southern Miss has no wins of substance. A few borderline top 100 wins, and one bad sub-100 loss. Yet, Lunardi has them as his 4th team out. Win every game until the conference final, and maybe they could somehow sneak in. Southern Miss has a chance still, but it's unlikely. That lack of any quality wins is just downright bad.
Alabama @ Ole Miss: Well, well. We'll start with Alabama 19-10 (11-5) RPI 59. Tide blew a lead at Florida this past weekend. Best wins: Kentucky, Villanova, Tennessee (none are in top 50). Bad losses to Auburn, Mercer and Tulane. Completely crappy resume right? Well, Lunardi has them as his 1st team out of the field as it currently stands. Win @ Ole Miss, beat Georgia at home, and go deep in the SEC Tournament and the Tide can sneak in thanks to this ridiculously soft bubble. Meanwhile, Ole Miss 21-8 (10-6) RPI 58. Just took a HORRIFIC loss to Mississippi State. So, they're done? Actually, shockingly, not quite, thanks again to this pathetically soft bubble. Best wins: Missouri, Tennessee X 2. Horrendous recent losses to Mississippi State and South Carolina, yet, Lunardi still has them only his 5th team out. If Ole Miss beats Alabama, then wins @ LSU, and has a solid SEC Tournament, they could still sneak in. Just unreal.
Boise State @ UNLV: Boise State 20-8 (8-6) RPI 44. Below the radar, Boise has won 4 straight to quietly put themselves in the field as it stands, both in the eyes of Lunardi and Palm. Quality wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and Creighton. Bad losses to Utah and Nevada. If Boise wins @ UNLV and then defeats SDSU at home to end the regular season, they're likely safely in. If they go 1-1, they'll probably need to win at least one in the MWC Tournament. If they go 0-2, they'll need a deep run in the MWC Tournament
St. John's @ Notre Dame: St. John's 16-12 (8-8) RPI 71. A home loss to Pittsburgh, followed by a loss @ Providence, has made the Johnnies a fringe bubble team. It's quite simple: they need to win @ Notre Dame on Tuesday, and then follow that up with a home win over Marquette to wrap up the regular season. Then, they'll need a solid Big East Tournament. That's the only path to the Dance for St. John's. Bad losses to UNC-Asheville, San Francisco, Murray State (that's a sub-100 loss now) and Rutgers. Their best wins are Notre Dame, UConn and Cincinnati. They've lost 4 out of 5 now. It's a big time strong finish or bust for Steve Lavin and St. John's.
Arkansas @ Missouri: Arkansas 18-11 (9-7) RPI 80. Another major, major longshot. However, Lunardi still has them hanging on the fringe (8th team out). They beat Kentucky at home to revive their slim hopes, and how must win @ Mizzou, beat Texas A&M at home to close the regular season, and then have a strong SEC Tournament to give themselves any real hope. The positives are they do have wins over Florida, Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky. However, they have bad losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt and are 1-8 in true road games this season with the one win being a nailbiter over 9-20 Auburn.
Southern Miss @ Marshall: Southern Miss 22-7 (11-3) RPI 34. Southern Miss has no wins of substance. A few borderline top 100 wins, and one bad sub-100 loss. Yet, Lunardi has them as his 4th team out. Win every game until the conference final, and maybe they could somehow sneak in. Southern Miss has a chance still, but it's unlikely. That lack of any quality wins is just downright bad.
Alabama @ Ole Miss: Well, well. We'll start with Alabama 19-10 (11-5) RPI 59. Tide blew a lead at Florida this past weekend. Best wins: Kentucky, Villanova, Tennessee (none are in top 50). Bad losses to Auburn, Mercer and Tulane. Completely crappy resume right? Well, Lunardi has them as his 1st team out of the field as it currently stands. Win @ Ole Miss, beat Georgia at home, and go deep in the SEC Tournament and the Tide can sneak in thanks to this ridiculously soft bubble. Meanwhile, Ole Miss 21-8 (10-6) RPI 58. Just took a HORRIFIC loss to Mississippi State. So, they're done? Actually, shockingly, not quite, thanks again to this pathetically soft bubble. Best wins: Missouri, Tennessee X 2. Horrendous recent losses to Mississippi State and South Carolina, yet, Lunardi still has them only his 5th team out. If Ole Miss beats Alabama, then wins @ LSU, and has a solid SEC Tournament, they could still sneak in. Just unreal.
Boise State @ UNLV: Boise State 20-8 (8-6) RPI 44. Below the radar, Boise has won 4 straight to quietly put themselves in the field as it stands, both in the eyes of Lunardi and Palm. Quality wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and Creighton. Bad losses to Utah and Nevada. If Boise wins @ UNLV and then defeats SDSU at home to end the regular season, they're likely safely in. If they go 1-1, they'll probably need to win at least one in the MWC Tournament. If they go 0-2, they'll need a deep run in the MWC Tournament
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The tournament needs to expand to 96 teams!
Buffenuf
massive tool
And make it double elimination! (if you want really "stoopid")
whatthebuff
Club Member
The state of Texas might not have a team from the tournament this year. Some guy named Stephen F Austin (20-3) has the best chance right now.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Arkansas got absolutely slaughtered at Missouri. Razorbacks fall to 18-12 (9-8). That's it for them, bubble officially burst. They were a complete long shot, but if they got a big win at Mizzou, they would have had a chance given the state of the bubble. Ultimately, you have to win on the road at least occasionally to be an NCAA Tournament team, and Arkansas couldn't do it this year (1-9 in road games). They're toast
St. John's got killed at Notre Dame. Red Storm fall to 16-13 (8-9). They were another complete long shot that conceivably could have crept into the picture with a strong finish, but have now lost 3 straight, 5/6. No chance now. Bubble likely burst long ago, but this is the final nail in the coffin.
Southern Miss loses at Marshall. Devastating loss for Southern Miss. They had no good wins, but had basically avoided bad losses...until now. Marshall is horrendous. They were previously Lunardi's 3rd team out (updated earlier today). This makes it highly unlikely Southern Miss can get in.
Iowa beat Illinois at home. This isn't about Iowa, despite their current 19-11 record they just aren't remotely in the picture baring bizarre occurrences that ends with Iowa in the B1G. championship game. I'm only mentioning this because Illinois is a potential first opponent for CU in the Dance. Illini fall to 21-10 (8-9), final game of the regular season is @ Ohio State.
St. John's got killed at Notre Dame. Red Storm fall to 16-13 (8-9). They were another complete long shot that conceivably could have crept into the picture with a strong finish, but have now lost 3 straight, 5/6. No chance now. Bubble likely burst long ago, but this is the final nail in the coffin.
Southern Miss loses at Marshall. Devastating loss for Southern Miss. They had no good wins, but had basically avoided bad losses...until now. Marshall is horrendous. They were previously Lunardi's 3rd team out (updated earlier today). This makes it highly unlikely Southern Miss can get in.
Iowa beat Illinois at home. This isn't about Iowa, despite their current 19-11 record they just aren't remotely in the picture baring bizarre occurrences that ends with Iowa in the B1G. championship game. I'm only mentioning this because Illinois is a potential first opponent for CU in the Dance. Illini fall to 21-10 (8-9), final game of the regular season is @ Ohio State.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Ole Miss beats Alabama in Oxford. Going into this, Ole Miss was Lunardi's 4th team out, Alabama Lunardi's 1st team out (yes, the bubble is this pathetically weak). Rebs now 22-8 (11-6). This is going to bring them back right on the line (unthinkable considering they just lost to Mississippi State and South Carolina recently, and have only one good win, Missouri). Ole Miss finishes the regular season with a tricky, must-win game @ LSU. Alabama falls to 19-11 (11-6). This is likely the final nail in the coffin, although the Tide will still hang around the fringes of the bubble lists since everyone is so weak. Alabama finishes the regular season with Georgia.
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BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
St John's and Sorta Lame were in the 3rd round of their boxing match, when suddenly, a basketball game broke out.
cville, would you say the bubble is particularly weak this year?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yes. The addition to 68 of course made things weaker, but this year just seems atrociously bad. The bubble records aren't any different than usual, but the resumes are just god awful. And, the last week or so, nearly every true bubble team out there has seemingly been doing everything they can to **** up. The fact Ole Miss lost to Mississippi State (sub-250 loss at the time) on Saturday, then turns around and gets a mediocre home win tonight that puts them right back on the line about sums it up.
sorry to make you type all that out, it was a joke.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
:lol:
come on man, give me some sarcasm font bruh.
but we know i like typing these things.
It's not just the bubble that's weak. As mediocre as some of the teams on the 12-line will be, it won't be much of a surprise if they knock off a couple 5 seeds. I wouldn't even bat an eye if, for example, a team like Villanova beat a team like Memphis.