Saturday's bubble watch: Buffs are edging closer to safety. HUGE game at Cal (3 MST), for both Pac-12 and NCAA Tournament reasons.
Alabama at Florida: Alabama 19-9 (11-4). RPI 63. Make or break time for the Tide, a team lacking any real quality wins (best are Villanova and Kentucky. Meh) and bad losses (Auburn, Mercer, Tulane). Win, and they take a big leap towards having a legitimate shot. Lose, and the bubble goes pop.
Maryland at Wake Forest: Maryland 19-9 (7-8) RPI 76. Maryland all but crushed their hopes with a loss at Georgia Tech. They're just downright bad on the road (only ACC road win was at Virginia Tech). Now, they travel to face a Wake Forest team that plays tough at home. A loss and the bubble is most definitely popped (it very likely already has), win and they keep their slim hopes alive for their final two games: North Carolina, @ Virginia, both of which would help their resume if they could finish strong.
Memphis at Central Florida: Memphis 24-4 (13-0) RPI 21. Memphis is in good shape, but that lost at Xavier hurt. It's brought attention to the fact that of their 24 ones, none are against a sure-fire tournament team. They certainly pass the eye test, but a sub-100 loss is not what they need right now, or they'll edge into bubble land (albeit still on the right side of things)
Iowa State at Oklahoma: Huge game. Cyclones are 19-9 (9-6) RPI 54. Sooners 18-9 (9-6) RPI 29. Iowa State is still on the right side of things, but that loss to Kansas was devastating. A win would have all but locked it up, now they're left needing wins to keep on the right side of the line. They certainly look like a Big Dance caliber team, but If they were to lose at Oklahoma tomorrow, anything less than winning their last two games: Oklahoma State, @ West Virginia would have them in very risky shape heading into the Big XII tournament. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is fresh off blowing a 20 point lead late and picking up a bad loss at Texas. They had avoided bad losses until this point. They're still in pretty good shape, but they do need to hold home court in this one and beat the Cyclones, or things will start to get a little dicey although they'd still be on the right side of things. Their final two games after this should be wins: West Virginia, @ TCU.
Tennessee at Georgia: Tennessee 17-10 (9-6) RPI 53. Vols have won 6 straight to make a charge for the Dance, and just beat Florida in their last game to start making a legitimate case. Still need to win their final 3 though: @ Georgia, @Auburn, Mizzou. The Vols are actually looking like the most likely of the SEC "bubble group" to get in, provided they can survive their trip to Athens, a team that beat them in Knoxville earlier this year to give Tennessee their one questionable loss.
Wichita State at Creighton: Wichita State 24-6 (12-5) RPI 42, Creighton 23-7 (12-5) RPI 41. This one is for the MVC regular season title. Wichita State took a bad loss at Evansville in their last game to make things a little dicey. If they lose at home to Creighton and then take an early loss in the MVC tournament, they're probably going to be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. Conversely, a win over Creighton would bring them fairly close to being safe. Creighton is in a similar situation. A loss would make things pretty dicey for them heading into the MVC tournament, while a win would make them a lock. This is a big one.
Rhode Island at Temple: Temple 20-8 (8-5) RPI 39. Temple is on the right side of things for now, barely, and a home loss to a miserable Rhode Island team is something they likely wouldn't be able to recover from. The same goes for their next game against Fordham, before a huge game against VCU to wrap up the regular season.
Connecticut at Cincinnati: Cincinnati 19-9 (7-8) RPI 51. Cincy is starting to sweat it out now after losses in 5/6. They're definitely still in the Dance as it stands, but their stock is sliding. This is a huge game for them, seeing as their next game is @ Louisville before wrapping up with lowly South Florida. They've got some nice wins (Marquette, Pitt, Oregon, Iowa State), and have avoided any truly bad losses, but at some point the losing has to stop. Here's their chance, if they don't hold home court against UConn, they're legitimately going to start being in trouble.
Duquesne at La Salle: La Salle 19-7 (9-4) RPI 40. La Salle is on the right side of things for now. Nice wins over Butler and @ VCU, one terrible early season loss to Central Connecticut St. This is a lowly Duquesne team they're facing in which a loss would almost surely knock them back on to the wrong side of the bubble. After this, they have George Washington at home and @ Saint Louis. They simply can't afford losses to Duquesne or George Washington.
Arizona State at Southern Cal: Arizona State 20-9 (9-7) RPI 89. Lunardi still has them as his second team out, so i'll clarify a few things: their RPI is off the charts bad, and their OOC SOS is horrendous. Two things the Committee really looks at. If they won @ USC, and beat Arizona in their final two, they'd need to make it to the finals of the Pac-12 tournament (beating teams with high RPI's along the way) to have any chance. They're not getting in.
Kentucky @ Arkansas: Kentucky 20-8 (11-4) RPI 50. Kentucky needs to win their last 3 to feel good: @ Arkansas, @ Georgia, Florida. They lack good wins (Missouri and really nothing else). Committee will give them some benefit of the doubt as defending champs, but their resume just has no meat. Kentucky fans should be concerned, namely because Arkansas is quite good at home, and I'm not sure Kentucky is going to come out of there with a win.
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State: Ole Miss 21-7 (10-5) RPI 55. Ole Miss is right on the line (Lunardi's last team in), and there's not much they can do to change that for the positive because they don't play anyone good. All they can do is mess up. Mississippi State is one of the worst teams I've ever seen, so they should take care of business here. After this, they host Alabama before ending @ LSU. Not sure I trust Ole Miss to win both of those final two.
Middle Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky: MSTU 26-4 (18-1) RPI 22. Despite the solid RPI, they lack good wins (best is Ole Miss). Only one bad loss (Arkansas State), but that lack of quality wins will cost them if they don't get the auto-bid. Highly unlikely for an at-large, although stranger things have happened.
Kansas State at Baylor: Baylor 17-11 (8-7) RPI 59. Baylor kept their hopes alive with a win at West Virginia. This is a resume that needs a boost though, and here's a big chance with KSU visiting. Remaining schedule involves a tricky road game to Texas, and then Kansas visits Waco. Baylor has the opportunities for big wins to put themselves in, but given their inconsistent play, I wouldn't count on it. This is close to a make or break for Baylor.
Colorado State at Boise State: Boise 19-8 (7-6) RPI 49. Boise is right near the line, and ends the season with CSU, @ UNLV, SDSU. If Boise holds home court with 2 big wins, they just might sneak in (have wins over UNLV and Creighton already, but do have bad losses to Nevada and Utah).
St. John's at Providence: St John's 16-11 (8-7) RPI 62. Red Storm's remaining 3 games are @ Providence, @ Notre Dame, Marquette. Realistically, they likely need to win all 3 of those to have a legitimate chance. They're a long shot at this point. Bad losses like UNC-Asheville and San Francisco, and best wins are Notrre Dame and UConn. Serious work to do against a really tough schedule.
Santa Clara at St. Mary's: St. Mary's 25-5 (13-2) RPI 44. St. Mary's looks to be safely in as it stands right now, despite lack of good wins (they beat Creighton, that's about it) and some bad losses (Pacific, Georgia Tech). This is their final regular season game. If they lost this and then slipped up to someone weak in the WCCC tournament, they'd be sweating it on Selection Sunday. But if it goes expected and they win this, and then make it to the WCC Finals and lose to Gonzaga for a 3rd time, they'll make it in.