2018 Offseason Realignment Thread (because Duff loves this ****)

[hokiehead]

P5 moves that could happen

1. ND full flip to ACC. This would only happen pre-2025 as part of a package deal to add another big program to the conference, Texas and Penn State being the two names that come up.
2. Collapse of the XII. Not as likely as 2 years ago, but potential for the B1G to make a grab for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc. Potential for Pac as well to re-enter negotiations with some of those schools.
3. XII lives but restructures, shedding WVU.
4. Contraction. With changing distribution models, media revenue will be more dependent on content and less on geography. E.g.B1G revisits Rutgers or ACC sheds Wake and BC.
5. XII expands, adding Houston or BYU or UCF or who knows.
6. Some conference, most likely the Pac, makes the first move to add a non-US school.
7. Without flipping ND, ACC makes a move to regain lost footing in the WMA by poaching WVU or Maryland or settling for Navy.
8. Johns Hopkins moves to D1 football and becomes a full B1G member.

I don't think any are likely in next 5 years, though. But i love the discussion.

 

[Bison]

Honestly if you use Carnegie Foundation Research Rankings, you would have a list of schools that would have reasonable expectations of being a P5 member. Frank the Tank did implore people on the internet to think more like a college president.

Carnegie Doctoral Universities with the Highest Level of Research: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids":"15"}&start_page=standard.php

I was surprised by some schools being on that list especially Kansas State and West Virginia who were not on such lists in the past. Texas Tech recently got state funding to elevate them to that level and they are already there along with Oklahoma. That means three schools out of the four Big 12 schools rumored to make the move west meets what I believe is the minimum requirement for PAC membership. Only three MWC schools meet that level and they are CSU, Hawaii, and New Mexico. That shows how limited the PAC's options are at this point outside of the Big 12 four. The AAC has seven such members (Cinncinnati, UCF, Houston, Tulane, UConn, Temple, and USF).

You can find the rest of the P5 schools in the next group of schools and I was surprised to find Northern Colorado among that group: http://carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/srp.php?clq={"basic2005_ids":"16"}&start_page=standard.php

• Boise State is not part of those two groups...they are not going to be a P5 school anytime soon. Let that sink in...UNC in Greeley is at a higher level than BSU in this case. Only school in Idaho at that level is eight miles away from WSU in Pullman.
• Given that West Virginia is finally at that level (perhaps due to being aligned with the Big 12 which seems to have every school but Baylor & TCU in that group), that school would be attractive to the ACC if they can maintain that level for awhile. But they might have to fight with UConn over that last ACC spot.
• Given that New Mexico is at the same level as the PAC-12 schools, perhaps UNM can replace Oklahoma State and they already have a rivalry with Arizona & Texas Tech. I believe the PAC was testing UNM recently with a home and home against Arizona State (perhaps like they did before inviting CU). UNM would simply add two million more people to the PAC's geographical footprint. Better than just about four million in Oklahoma with both Oklahoma schools. You can always swap out New Mexico for Kansas but there will be a big fight between the B1G, SEC, and PAC over Kansas due to Kansas City. UT, OU, and KU are key to the Big 12's survival.
• You can call me crazy but I believe there's no way CSU builds their on campus stadium unless they were simply told that there is a seat for them at the P5 table.
• I remember Plati having something to say about the locations of airports in PAC cities. This does not favor Oklahoma State and I'm not sure about Kansas. That is why I included UNM instead of KU.

 

[Buffnik]

I think the B1G will take KU and steal Missouri from the SEC when the dominoes fall.

The question if that happens is whether the SEC raids the Big 12 and causes it to collapse or whether it goes after ACC members with a GoR settlement.

If the Big 12 stays together, Pac-12 will have to look at the likes of UNLV, SDSU, BYU, Boise State, Houston and SMU.

 

[buffaholic]

• You can call me crazy but I believe there's no way CSU builds their on campus stadium unless they were simply told that there is a seat for them at the P5 table.

I am quite sure that this is not the case, as I heard their pitch for donations.

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

If the Big 12 stays together, Pac-12 will be completely ****ed.

You really think six schools are going to move the needle enough to keep the Pac on even a similar level as the other conferences?

 

[onealcd]

I think the B1G will take KU and steal Missouri from the SEC when the dominoes fall.

The question if that happens is whether the SEC raids the Big 12 and causes it to collapse or whether it goes after ACC members with a GoR settlement.

If the Big 12 stays together, Pac-12 will have to look at the likes of UNLV, SDSU, BYU, Boise State, Houston and SMU.

If the Pac goes that route I would much rather see a Gonzaga/SDSU basketball combo and a Houston/SMU football only combo.

 

[Buffnik]

If the Pac goes that route I would much rather see a Gonzaga/SDSU basketball combo and a Houston/SMU football only combo.

If you’re looking at the numbers, why go football only? Football makes most of the money, so may as well let them in for all sports. Especially since Houston & SMU have had as much success in MBB as Gonzaga/SDSU with greater success in their other sports, much larger endowments, etc.

 

[onealcd]

If you’re looking at the numbers, why go football only? Football makes most of the money, so may as well let them in for all sports. Especially since Houston & SMU have had as much success in MBB as Gonzaga/SDSU with greater success in their other sports, much larger endowments, etc.

It just seems like there is no perfect situation right now for the Pac-12 if the Big-12 stays intact. Personally I don't really think there is any reason for all sports to be grouped into the same conferences, especially with the travel costs for some non-revenue sports. So, as of right now Pac-12 football needs the big Texas markets that would be filled with Houston and SMU. This helps bring Texas eyeballs and helps with recruiting.

In terms of basketball, I don't really see markets as a huge issue. LA and the Bay area are two of the biggest basketball markets in the country. The conference needs big time brands that I think would be accomplished by adding Gonzaga and SDSU (I could also be talked into adding 4 for basketball only with UNLV and UNM). I think those four would help bring more marquee games without having to pay them a **** load of money to subsidize their football programs when they really don't offer much.

 

[ahoelsken]

I find Nik's points about UNLV's commitment to growth very interesting.

I also find holic's point about Vegas being a transplant town very relevant. that comes up every time we discuss poor attendance at CU: "yes, there's lots of people here but everyone's a transplant and they have no loyalty to the Buffs..."

Edit: if there was a perfect candidate school, they'd already be in the conference

Given the presidents of UCLA, Stanford, and Cal all said we're not for expansion unless the University of Colorado is involved in 2011 when we moved...........One can make the argument that we were the perfect candidate school.

 

[ahoelsken]

If you’re looking at the numbers, why go football only? Football makes most of the money, so may as well let them in for all sports. Especially since Houston & SMU have had as much success in MBB as Gonzaga/SDSU with greater success in their other sports, much larger endowments, etc.

If I'm the MWC and I want to make a move, I'd go bigger than just Gonzaga. Add St. Mary's. You're basically forcing BYU to return (they've said they'd come back to the MWC if Gonzaga joined) and putting the WCC down there with the Big Sky in terms of prestige at that point.

 

[Buffnik]

Given the presidents of UCLA, Stanford, and Cal all said we're not for expansion unless the University of Colorado is involved in 2011 when we moved...........One can make the argument that we were the perfect candidate school.

I think the University of Houston potentially adds as much to the Pac-12 as Colorado did.

Academics are lower, but within range as a "peer". A bit below Oregon and quite a bit above Washington State.
Carnegie: Tier 1 Research
ARWU: 201-300
AAU: No

Athletics are lower, but still brings some prestige.
Football - they've got a Heisman, over 400 wins and a number of conference titles & Top 25 finishes
MBB - 5 Final Four appearances and they seem to be back with a Top 25 this season
WBB - 5 tourney appearances and a coach who won 20 this year in his 3rd season (not great, but on rise)
Baseball - very good program that has made the NCAA tourney over 20 times
Other - 16 golf national championships and 1 XC national championship

Facilities are pretty new and nice.
Football stadium was finished in 2013 with a 40k capacity designed to be expanded to 60k. IPF adjacent to stadium.
Basketball arena is finishing a $60M renovation and will open next season.

Endowment is $962.3 million. (Close to CU, which is a little over $1 billion.)

So, while all of that is a bit below what CU brought -- UH brings the kicker of bringing media distribution and recruiting inroads into Texas.

They'd be a great addition. Not as good as UT, OU or aTm, of course, but probably better than anything else west of the the North-South line from the MN to LA western borders other than NU or maybe KU if the AAU membership is premium valued.

 

[Buffnik]

If I'm the MWC and I want to make a move, I'd go bigger than just Gonzaga. Add St. Mary's. You're basically forcing BYU to return (they've said they'd come back to the MWC if Gonzaga joined) and putting the WCC down there with the Big Sky in terms of prestige at that point.

Yeah. MWC screwed up by not adding Wichita State and Gonzaga last year for non-football. Dumb.

There's a pretty good argument for the Pac-12 to look at what the ACC has done with Notre Dame, as has been brought up. Is there value in not expanding for football beyond 12 at this point but maybe adding programs like UNLV, New Mexico, BYU and SDSU for hoops and other sports?

 

[ahoelsken]

Yeah. MWC screwed up by not adding Wichita State and Gonzaga last year for non-football. Dumb.

There's a pretty good argument for the Pac-12 to look at what the ACC has done with Notre Dame, as has been brought up. Is there value in not expanding for football beyond 12 at this point but maybe adding programs like UNLV, New Mexico, BYU and SDSU for hoops and other sports?

None of the above I think make sense for us except for maybe New Mexico-UNLV is a distant third in Vegas behind the shocking Golden Knights and now the Raiders that they're on their way there. There are so many Pac 12 alums in San Diego that we're practically already there as a league. I don't see the liberals in California approving the addition of religious schools like BYU or SMU under any circumstances, as intriguing as an addition as they might be for us as a league. The only two schools that I'd favor adding outside of current Big 12 schools are Houston and New Mexico honestly.

 

[Buffnik]

None of the above I think make sense for us except for maybe New Mexico-UNLV is a distant third in Vegas behind the shocking Golden Knights and now the Raiders that they're on their way there. There are so many Pac 12 alums in San Diego that we're practically already there as a league. I don't see the liberals in California approving the addition of religious schools like BYU or SMU under any circumstances, as intriguing as an addition as they might be for us as a league. The only two schools that I'd favor adding outside of current Big 12 schools are Houston and New Mexico honestly.

BYU is likely a non-starter because it is not a peer institution in terms of academic freedom with graduate research intensity. Politics is not the driver on that one. That same issue hamstrings Boise State, too.

New Mexico makes it on that, but is weak on so many other factors.

UNLV needs to get its academics and football program where it has set its strategic initiatives because it's not there yet.

SMU is questionable as an academic peer.

Houston fits.

SDSU is not quite there on academics but is fairly close. Biggest issue there is the U Cal system vs Cal State system politics along with the question of whether they add value or just cannibalize what we already have with media and recruiting grounds.

 

[SuperiorBuff]

Ooooooo, can we invite UTerus? since they already ****ed us once, maybe they can use a cactus condom this time so it hurts again.

 

[Not Sure]

What an insane thread.

 

[Buffs35]

Can we add Kansas and Iowa State? I miss easy wins.

 

[Buffnik]

Can we add Kansas and Iowa State? I miss easy wins.

Kansas would be a great add, actually. I just have trouble thinking we'd get them because I expect the B1G to add them as an AAU member that is a great geographic fit.

 

[Liver]

we're going to get tex'd again. tex and one of the other texassss schools (not named bailer) will join and then we'll get pushed into an east/west config.

 

[SuperiorBuff]

Perhaps we could get Boston College, just think of all of those NE TVs!

 

[Buffnik]

we're going to get tex'd again. tex and one of the other texassss schools (not named bailer) will join and then we'll get pushed into an east/west config.

I think that's likely. And I think that it will end up being a Pac-16 so that the original Pac-8 schools can realize their dream of playing each other every year. If they get that, I don't think they care who the other 4 are for the "East" as long as it makes them more money while they get their wish on this.

 

[hokiehead]

I may not get this phrased correctly on the first pass, so I reserve the right to clarify, but here goes....

I understand why members of the original XII felt they had to concede disproportionate control and finances to Texas at the time. Why do Allbuffers not believe the Pac would have sufficiently higher leverage such that if we were to add Texas it would be on equal terms with the rest of the conference?

 

[onealcd]

I may not get this phrased correctly on the first pass, so I reserve the right to clarify, but here goes....

I understand why members of the original XII felt they had to concede disproportionate control and finances to Texas at the time. Why do Allbuffers not believe the Pac would have sufficiently higher leverage such that if we were to add Texas it would be on equal terms with the rest of the conference?

Because the pac is desperate and Texas will have offers from two other conferences.

 

[hokiehead]

The Mountain West Conference could get a big addition, possibly next season.

Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson said he has spoken with six university presidents or athletic directors since August about joining the conference.

The only school Thompson identified was Gonzaga, one of the nation's top mid-major programs. Thompson said Gonzaga athletic director Mike Roth reached out to him last fall and that he has spoken with men's basketball coach Mark Few about the possibility of the Zags leaving the West Coast Conference for the MWC.

espn link

have to think other candidates BYU, NM State, San Diego. Maybe St. Mary's, Grand Canyon too -- they're being very aggressive.

edit:
perhaps not unrelated, Sun Belt just got a sweeter media deal with ESPN. take New Mexico State and maybe Idaho off the table for MWC ex[amsopm maybe?

Spoiler: contract highlights

Enhancements to the current contract between ESPN and the Sun Belt include:

• The confirmation that the inaugural Sun Belt Football Championship Game will be played on Saturday, December 1, 2018, on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2, with future championship games also televised on one of these networks.
• The guarantee that all Sun Belt home football games will be available on an ESPN platform for the seventh consecutive year in 2018 and for the duration of the long-term contract with ESPN.
• A continued increase of men’s and women’s basketball games on ESPN platforms. The number of men’s basketball contests available will jump to a minimum of 100 games in 2018-19 and 150 games in the 2019-20 season.

Beginning with the 2020-21 academic year:

• A minimum of 500 events a year will appear on an ESPN platform.
• Every Sun Belt football, men’s basketball and women’s basketball game will be on an ESPN platform.
• Linear network football games at Sun Belt home venues will expand to a minimum of 10 games a year on a combination of ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU.
• Sun Belt Championship events will be on an ESPN platform each academic year that will give exposure to all conference sports.
• Digital productions will expand to include regular season competition in Sun Belt sports that have received only limited coverage previously.

sunbeltsports link

 

[Bison]

NMSU could join the Sun Belt since they border a member state (Texas) but UTEP has been talking with their CUSA mates about adding NMSU. Southland might be their last resort but they want out of the dying WAC.

Idaho did the right thing by dropping down to FCS football and they will be in the Big Sky Conference from this point now. That means BSU will get the full state's support to do what it needs to do to become a P5 member but their academic rankings with graduate schools (a reason why ASU is in the PAC...if it was about undergraduate rankings, ASU would be in the MWC or worse).

And about the Zags to the MWC, it's almost like what goes around comes around since BYU did try to destroy the MWC by inviting San Diego State and UNLV to join the WAC at the time but Frenso State and Nevada said heck no and joined the MWC instead. The Zags would make it 12 MWC basketball members since Hawaii is a football only member...not much different from Wichita State joining the AAC.

As for the Sun Belt, further expansion might very well be a forgone conclusion.

As for ESPN+, chances are good they go after the MWC as well.

 

[PAHIBuff]

If UNLV and/or New Mexico ever join the PAC 12, visiting teams will be playing football in front of 15,120 yawning spectators. And the recruiting will get worse, not better, for both schools. No one in Las Vegas cares a lick about UNLV football. The ABQ locals feel only slightly better about Lobo football, and then only if they are winning. No thanks on either school.

 

[Bison]

If UNLV and/or New Mexico ever join the PAC 12, visiting teams will be playing football in front of 15,120 yawning spectators. And the recruiting will get worse, not better, for both schools. No one in Las Vegas cares a lick about UNLV football. The ABQ locals feel only slightly better about Lobo football, and then only if they are winning. No thanks on either school.

With those two, the PAC would lock up pretty much every major TV market in the west. That might be more important than tickets sold and you can bet that Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma fans would help get those UNM attendance numbers up.

And given where football is at these days, it'd be smart to focus more on basketball.

 

[Buffnik]

espn link

have to think other candidates BYU, NM State, San Diego. Maybe St. Mary's, Grand Canyon too -- they're being very aggressive.

edit:
perhaps not unrelated, Sun Belt just got a sweeter media deal with ESPN. take New Mexico State and maybe Idaho off the table for MWC ex[amsopm maybe?

Spoiler: contract highlights

Enhancements to the current contract between ESPN and the Sun Belt include:

• The confirmation that the inaugural Sun Belt Football Championship Game will be played on Saturday, December 1, 2018, on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2, with future championship games also televised on one of these networks.
• The guarantee that all Sun Belt home football games will be available on an ESPN platform for the seventh consecutive year in 2018 and for the duration of the long-term contract with ESPN.
• A continued increase of men’s and women’s basketball games on ESPN platforms. The number of men’s basketball contests available will jump to a minimum of 100 games in 2018-19 and 150 games in the 2019-20 season.

Beginning with the 2020-21 academic year:

• A minimum of 500 events a year will appear on an ESPN platform.
• Every Sun Belt football, men’s basketball and women’s basketball game will be on an ESPN platform.
• Linear network football games at Sun Belt home venues will expand to a minimum of 10 games a year on a combination of ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU.
• Sun Belt Championship events will be on an ESPN platform each academic year that will give exposure to all conference sports.
• Digital productions will expand to include regular season competition in Sun Belt sports that have received only limited coverage previously.

sunbeltsports link

iirc, Hawaii is a football-only member of the MWC so they could use a 12th member in basketball and other sports. Gonzaga would be a perfect addition if they go this direction.

I could easily see that happening.

If it does, watch out for what BYU might do. I don't think they'd be as enamored with a WCC that didn't include Gonzaga.

 

[Buffnik]

If UNLV and/or New Mexico ever join the PAC 12, visiting teams will be playing football in front of 15,120 yawning spectators. And the recruiting will get worse, not better, for both schools. No one in Las Vegas cares a lick about UNLV football. The ABQ locals feel only slightly better about Lobo football, and then only if they are winning. No thanks on either school.

Yes and no. Probably double that number because the opponents would be so much more attractive. I think it's fair to assume a significant bump in fan interest with being P5 instead of G5. Those schools pull 25-30k when they play their in-state rivals, for instance. And I just looked at TCU attendance figures for 2011 vs 2013 (2nd year in Big 12 - avoiding the 1st year excitement and also picking a 4-8 season). They went from averaging about 33k to over 43k when they jumped to P5. I'd guess the benefit is at least a 25% bump and possibly a 100% bump if we're talking about a school starting from a lower baseline of attendance and success than where TCU had been.

That said, I don't think we're ever going to see schools like UNLV needing a 100k capacity stadium. But I do think that if they're winning they could get to the point where they're drawing 40-50k in that new stadium. That's not the reason to avoid adding them. The reason would be if they didn't add revenue to the media deal, didn't fit culturally as a peer institution and/or didn't add to recruiting/competitiveness.

 

[White_Rabbit]

Disappointing start to the realignment thread. I need to hear more about super off the wall ideas like UCSD adding a football program or some University in Mexico being targeted. We all know the MWC schools outside of Houston are pretty meh as options.