The point isn’t about the likelihood of a vaccine getting discovered. It’s that our way of life resuming isn’t going to be contingent on a vaccine.
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2020 CU football season POSTPONED until Nov 6th?
- Thread starter Jens1893
- Start date
There were SARS vaccines in the works but the disease died off before human trials could begin and hasn't been seen since. MERS is still around, but is rare and doesn't appear to be as contagious. I haven't read of any effort to work on a vaccine for it.
The reason why a vaccine is likely for SARS-2 (Covid-19) is because of the similarity to the original SARS and most researchers are building off that previous work.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Seems like you have a medical background @AeroBuff99. Is it feasible that this thing we're dealing with now is SARS mutating through the years? I've seen this thing has something like 80% of the DNA that the 2002 SARS does....
No medical background, I just read more than this message board in order to stay informed.
Just finished watching Pandemic on Netflix the other day, and although it focuses on influenza the point is that there are many undiscovered viruses in the animal world and they don't know when the next H1N1 or SARS will hit.
I haven't read anything that this is a mutation of SARS.
I am in finance so not calling myself an expert, but from what I’ve read the reason that there aren’t Coronavirus vaccine in existence already is that it doesn’t fall into the biopahrma wheelhouse. For example, developing vaccines depends in part on these factors:
1. The virus is deadly (high absolute numbers in death)
2. The virus is stable
3. The virus is highly infectious
4. The virus is circulating to a broad population
5. The virus is circulating in wealthy countries
The Coronavirus that causes the common cold satisfies conditions 3,4, and 5, but is a poor candidate for a vaccine because it mutates often and isn’t deadly enough. It doesn’t mean a vaccine couldn’t be developed, but it may only work temporarily before it mutates and why bother trying if it has really really low mortality.
Influenza satisfies 1,3,4, and 5, but is not stable. Therefore, you have to alter the vaccine slightly each year. It causes enough deaths in rich countries to make it worthwhile to go through the expense to develop a new vaccine each year.
SARS and MERS coronaviruses satisfy 1,2, and partially 3, but not 4 and 5. Developing a vaccine was begun, but once they were contained before any rich countries were affected, the development was scrapped, as funding ran dry.
Ebola virus satisfied 1-4, but a vaccine was developed only after race shaming rich countries for not giving a damn because it wasn’t in the U.S. or Europe or Japan. As soon as a couple of nurses in Texas got sick, voila, a vaccine was developed.
Covid 19* hits all five factors on the list. Other things that also were a perfect 5 for 5 on my list were polio, smallpox, and measles. Hopefully, this virus follows a similar path and gets eradicated with a simple shot a couple of times in each person’s lifetime.
*Covid 19 is not a mutation of SARS or MERS, but it is a cousin so to speak that shares much of the same rna structure. Therefore scientists can leverage earlier research on those two to get a head start on Covid 19.
1. The virus is deadly (high absolute numbers in death)
2. The virus is stable
3. The virus is highly infectious
4. The virus is circulating to a broad population
5. The virus is circulating in wealthy countries
The Coronavirus that causes the common cold satisfies conditions 3,4, and 5, but is a poor candidate for a vaccine because it mutates often and isn’t deadly enough. It doesn’t mean a vaccine couldn’t be developed, but it may only work temporarily before it mutates and why bother trying if it has really really low mortality.
Influenza satisfies 1,3,4, and 5, but is not stable. Therefore, you have to alter the vaccine slightly each year. It causes enough deaths in rich countries to make it worthwhile to go through the expense to develop a new vaccine each year.
SARS and MERS coronaviruses satisfy 1,2, and partially 3, but not 4 and 5. Developing a vaccine was begun, but once they were contained before any rich countries were affected, the development was scrapped, as funding ran dry.
Ebola virus satisfied 1-4, but a vaccine was developed only after race shaming rich countries for not giving a damn because it wasn’t in the U.S. or Europe or Japan. As soon as a couple of nurses in Texas got sick, voila, a vaccine was developed.
Covid 19* hits all five factors on the list. Other things that also were a perfect 5 for 5 on my list were polio, smallpox, and measles. Hopefully, this virus follows a similar path and gets eradicated with a simple shot a couple of times in each person’s lifetime.
*Covid 19 is not a mutation of SARS or MERS, but it is a cousin so to speak that shares much of the same rna structure. Therefore scientists can leverage earlier research on those two to get a head start on Covid 19.
somebody
Well-Known Member
It makes no sense that a governor will prevent games but allow state schools to practice and play elsewhere.
I was referring to NFL teams, should've made that clear.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Baseball/Basketball/Hockey need only one to get the bubble concepts underway. Football's trickier RN because its so far away.
somebody
Well-Known Member
Yeah, in the CFB thread.
No it doesn't.
vinniew_11
Well-Known Member
Who is he talking about here?
Looks like Stacy Patterson, DT in 1996
Correct. One of the nicest guys ever. Very sad....I should clarify (given the thread that this is in) that it has not been indicated that his death is related to CV-19.
vinniew_11
Well-Known Member
I put in the wrong thread
My worry down deep is that this thing abates a bit in the warmer weather and were lulled into a false sense of safety only to have it return by October. Given the money thats at risk I have little doubt that they will try unless our current death and infection rates stick.
I kind of like the pro sports plans where they play in isolation somewhere but thats not gonna work for CFB. But someone has to bring food and maintain facilities and those players will want to see their families.
If we are smart, we will not open concert halls, stadiums, arenas, convention centers, amusement parks until there is a vaccine or a really good treatment (as opposed to the rest of the economy which can open as soon as we have numbers and testing under control, hopefully soon). Without either vaccine or treatment, I think you keep the big gatherings closed until 2022.
I don't think football needs to happen, period, until more is known about this. Like I give a rat's ass about some multi millionaire or billionaire losing money, they'll be fine regardless. My worry would be the players, officials, camera folks, etc.. This is already a pretty ****ing big problem, I hope some of these ****ing douchers don't turn it into a gigantic one over ****ing money.
And when everyone in a particular position group tests positive? Then what?
Excellent post.
Others have posted here that Coronaviruses are difficult to develop an immunization for. Attempts were made and it sounds like animal testing led to an early concern for application of a SARS-CoV vaccine was the experience with animal coronavirus vaccines, which induced enhanced disease and immunopathology in animals when challenged with infectious virus [96]. Indeed, a similar immunopathologic reaction has been described in mice vaccinated with a SARS-CoV vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV [97,98,99,100,101]. Thus, safety concerns related to effectiveness and safety for vaccinated persons, especially if exposed to other coronaviruses, should be carefully examined. Link
Basically, it slowed down corona virus X but that led to enabling other viruses A B or C to come along and be more likely to sicken kill the test subject.
The Spanish Flu, in the H1N1 family, disappeared nearly overnight after its final crescendo. The theory is that it mutated. It's also been suggested that victims with more severe cases were finally sufficiently isolated and or died so rapidly that the deadlier version lost its ability to spread like wildfire as it had thru dense and unsanitary WWI trenches and field hospitals. So, isolation and containment could be the key.
Correct me if I am wrong, but SARS and MERS have been around for what 10 years or more with no vaccine. You could be talking indefinite shutdown...is that really where you think it needs to be?
We have been shut down and in quarantine for a month and people are suggesting it continue for at least another year unless a vaccine is developed? That will never happen. It can’t happen.
There’s a difference between banning large gatherings, mass public events and keeping some of the current restrictions (particularly in regards to crowd control) and keeping the status quo in place for a year.
The "like" is for the new sig!
SARS and MERS burnt themselves out and vaccine development ceased. I’m not sure if CV-19 vaccine is viable or not. I certainly hope so.
As Jens said above, I think you have to open up the world economy for people to go back to work. But until there is an effective treatment or vaccine, I don’t see a scenario where you can pack thousands of people into stadiums, arenas, and amusement parks without creating a Petri dish for mass spread. That’s different than re-opening your worksite.
While culturally significant, most sporting leagues and rock concerts are not economically significant. And that doesn’t mean they don’t generate significant dollars, it’s more that the product is non-essential and the benefits go to relatively few individual workers and owners in the grand scheme of things.
Hopefully COVID burns itself out.
You’re right, amusement parks are different. But those are the worst of the worst. People come from everywhere and are really packed in tightly. People touching handrails and other surfaces everywhere. There is just no way to open those safely, without flying the virus to every part of the world on a weekly basis.
As I’ve said, my home state of Florida is uniquely screwed.