2020 CU football season POSTPONED until Nov 6th?

[Not Sure]

You’re right, amusement parks are different. But those are the worst of the worst. People come from everywhere and are really packed in tightly. People touching handrails and other surfaces everywhere. There is just no way to open those safely, without flying the virus to every part of the world on a weekly basis.

As I’ve said, my home state of Florida is uniquely screwed.

Disney is a big swinging dick. Those parks are going to be open as soon as they can be. JMHO.

 

[Jens1893]

Tell the folks in Orlando that amusement parks are not economically significant.

They may not be economically insignificant, but the amusement in amusement park gives you an answer why it's not a priority.

Anything regarding recreational entertainment and amusement isn't essential to keep the country running and therefore isn't a priority, especially if it involves very big crowds like concerts, sports events, trade shows.

Tourism in general is in a really hard spot here, particularly if it relies on international visitors.

 

[Jens1893]

Disney is a big swinging dick. Those parks are going to be open as soon as they can be. JMHO.

Only if you can ensure that the necessary distance can be maintained.

Any kind of business with a business model that relies on crowds of over say a thousand or so being there at the same time will be in serious trouble IMO as I can't see those coming back any time soon. Bars, cinemas, restaurants, clubs etc. will not be operating at their full capacity at any point in the near future unless something massively changes.

 

[unionbuff]

I think Disney is preparing for a long shutdown. They know they will be able to recover financially and i think the risk of opening up too soon is far too great. They had the measles outbreak at Disneyland a few years back so I think they realize how easy communicable diseases can spread in their environment.

 

[Jens1893]

I think Disney is preparing for a long shutdown. They know they will be able to recover financially and i think the risk of opening up too soon is far too great. They had the measles outbreak at Disneyland a few years back so I think they realize how easy communicable diseases can spread in their environment.

Plus Disney has more than one income stream

 

[Not Sure]

I dunno. At a certain point, things have to open back up, even if on a limited basis. I get the issue with crowds and everybody touching handrails, ride seats, etc. I think that after a certain amount of time, the political pressure from these giant operators will force some action. Certainly not any time really soon, but I’ll be surprised if the parks aren’t opened up by July.

 

[Jens1893]

I dunno. At a certain point, things have to open back up, even if on a limited basis. I get the issue with crowds and everybody touching handrails, ride seats, etc. I think that after a certain amount of time, the political pressure from these giant operators will force some action. Certainly not any time really soon, but I’ll be surprised if the parks aren’t opened up by July.

I'd be very, very surprised if they are. Germany just banned all major public events until the end of August.

 

[Not Sure]

I'd be very, very surprised if they are. Germany just banned all major public events until the end of August.

My first thought at that is that it’s a huge overreaction on the part of the Germans. However, I’ve come to realize that my guidelines for what is and what is not an overreaction have been completely useless.

 

[OsideBuff]

And yet...214 pregnant women were tested for COVID antibodies....randomly....29 were positive...asymptomatic...or roughly 13% of the sample..a sampling in a county is ongoing in Colorado as well.....if that translates to the general population....thats about 40M folks with the virus.....with an upward estimate for 50K deaths...that is about 0,12% mortality rate....

Food for thought...statistics...models...all just mathematical manipulation of available data....clearly the early models were off in their assumptions...and a lack of data...

 

[hawg1]

You’re right, amusement parks are different. But those are the worst of the worst. People come from everywhere and are really packed in tightly. People touching handrails and other surfaces everywhere. There is just no way to open those safely, without flying the virus to every part of the world on a weekly basis.

As I’ve said, my home state of Florida is uniquely screwed.

Disney could be a good buy as we come out of this. But a theme park outbreak will be a bad black eye. Such a balance.

 

[Jens1893]

My first thought at that is that it’s a huge overreaction on the part of the Germans. However, I’ve come to realize that my guidelines for what is and what is not an overreaction have been completely useless.

It's a logical consequence and completely in line with what all virologists are saying. There's talk of there being no concerts until Fall 2021.

I'm having a very, very, very hard time seeing amusement parks with 50,000 daily visitors being allowed to open while concerts, sporting events etc. are banned.

The risk is just too high to have that many people concentrated in one place and it cannot be ensured that the necessary distance can be kept.

If they're allowed to open it'll come with heavy restrictions and well below their usual capacity at which point the question becomes whether it makes economic sense.

Get used to the idea of there being no events with more 1,000 people at the very, very most for the foreseeable future and probably the rest of the year.

 

[hawg1]

And yet...214 pregnant women were tested for COVID antibodies....randomly....29 were positive...asymptomatic...or roughly 13% of the sample..a sampling in a county is ongoing in Colorado as well.....if that translates to the general population....thats about 40M folks with the virus.....with an upward estimate for 50K deaths...that is about 0,12% mortality rate....

Food for thought...statistics...models...all just mathematical manipulation of available data....clearly the early models were off in their assumptions...and a lack of data...

Non-random study iirc

Seropositive provalence studies will be in 8 percent range. Tests are notoriously overstated for false positives. I predict 5-7 percent with adjustments. Studies soon.

 

[Darth Snow]

My first thought at that is that it’s a huge overreaction on the part of the Germans. However, I’ve come to realize that my guidelines for what is and what is not an overreaction have been completely useless.

Well, what's your preferred timeline? How many deaths are acceptable in return for reopening Disney?

 

[Not Sure]

Well, what's your preferred timeline? How many deaths are acceptable in return for reopening Disney?

Dont be a dick. Nobody is putting an “acceptable number of deaths” figure out there. That’s just absurd.

 

[Creebuzz]

I dunno. At a certain point, things have to open back up, even if on a limited basis. I get the issue with crowds and everybody touching handrails, ride seats, etc. I think that after a certain amount of time, the political pressure from these giant operators will force some action. Certainly not any time really soon, but I’ll be surprised if the parks aren’t opened up by July.

I am personally receptive to the economic arguments. I think an economic depression would likely cause more worldwide deaths than CV19.

In general terms, I would think a path would be: - shelter in place- slow outbreak - provide time for science/medicine/epidemiology to catch up - develop contact tracing and bring more tests to market - reopen economy with some distancing, limiting capacity at restaurants - evaluate - reduce restrictions if things ok - create good treatment/vaccine - reopen crowded stadiums, arenas, conventions, and amusement parks that are non essential businesses.

I see the last step as 2021 event based on current information , but things will be re-evaluated as facts warrant.

 

[OsideBuff]

Non-random study iirc

Seropositive provalence studies will be in 8 percent range. Tests are notoriously overstated for false positives. I predict 5-7 percent with adjustments. Studies soon.

Non random? Bad tests? Based on what data? Sources? 5 to 7 percent based on...sources? Our current "data" and information feeding the models was...people tested with major symptoms...and that is currently the denominator...nonsense statistically. The models of 2 million...then 100k to 200k...to 50K...in less than 6 weeks...that is some bad model devleopment...and NONE were caveated with any confidence interval...

 

[Not Sure]

I am personally receptive to the economic arguments. I think an economic depression would likely cause more worldwide deaths than CV19.

In general terms, I would think a path would be: - shelter in place- slow outbreak - provide time for science/medicine/epidemiology to catch up - develop contact tracing and bring more tests to market - reopen economy with some distancing, limiting capacity at restaurants - evaluate - reduce restrictions if things ok - create good treatment/vaccine - reopen crowded stadiums, arenas, conventions, and amusement parks that are non essential businesses.

I see the last step as 2021 event based on current information , but things will be re-evaluated as facts warrant.

I am willing to admit I could be wrong on this, but I have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Disney will have all of its parks closed for 9 months or longer. Disney will invent a vaccine all on its own before they let that happen. Only partly kidding.

 

[Creebuzz]

I am willing to admit I could be wrong on this, but I have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that Disney will have all of its parks closed for 9 months or longer. Disney will invent a vaccine all on its own before they let that happen. Only partly kidding.

I don’t see how epidemiologists would say it’s safe to open the Disney parks soon. I know they could easily twist Governor DeSantis’s hand to open, but if enough scientists say it’s foolish, I don’t think they will attempt just for the negative PR if nothing else.

I personally think they will only open if the science says they can open. I recognize that I may be wrong, and business will trump science.

 

[Darth Snow]

Dont be a dick. Nobody is putting an “acceptable number of deaths” figure out there. That’s just absurd.

That's not being a dick. That's asking the tough question you are avoiding answering. If you want to reopen the Disney parks sooner rather than later, you have to be able to answer that question. And if you can't answer that question or wont, maybe you should recalibrate your guidelines.

 

[Not Sure]

I don’t see how epidemiologists would say it’s safe to open the Disney parks soon. I know they could easily twist Governor DeSantis’s hand to open, but if enough scientists say it’s foolish, I don’t think they will attempt just for the negative PR if nothing else.

I personally think they will only open if the science says they can open. I recognize that I may be wrong, and business will trump science.

What is safe for one isn’t necessarily safe for another. I could see a scenario play out where a significant portion of experts say the risk has been mitigated enough to open on a limited basis. What that means is anybody’s guess. But this will turn into a situation where each side has its own group of “experts”. And yes, right now everybody is on the same side. That will change before too long.

 

[Jens1893]

I don’t see how epidemiologists would say it’s safe to open the Disney parks soon. I know they could easily twist Governor DeSantis’s hand to open, but if enough scientists say it’s foolish, I don’t think they will attempt just for the negative PR if nothing else.

I personally think they will only open if the science says they can open. I recognize that I may be wrong, and business will trump science.

But can you see them twisting Newsom's hand in California? And could you see them opening one, but not the other?

Plus Disney has other income streams and a forced closure may allow them to push forward some renovations, redevelopments etc.

 

[Not Sure]

That's not being a dick. That's asking the tough question you are avoiding answering. If you want to reopen the Disney parks sooner rather than later, you have to be able to answer that question. And if you can't answer that question or wont, maybe you should recalibrate your guidelines.

No, that’s posing an absurd question in the hopes of getting a response.

 

[Darth Snow]

No, that’s posing an absurd question in the hopes of getting a response.

It's only absurd if you think that reopening the parks soon will not result in deaths. Do you think that opening the parks in the next 3 months will result in deaths or not?

 

[Not Sure]

It's only absurd if you think that reopening the parks soon will not result in deaths. Do you think that opening the parks in the next 3 months will result in deaths or not?

That’s a different question, though.

I have no idea if opening up the parks in three months will result in COVID -19 deaths.

 

[Darth Snow]

That’s a different question, though.

I have no idea if opening up the parks in three months will result in COVID -19 deaths.

You have no idea? Why the hell are you talking about reopening the parks? Is that even a reasonable opinion or is that a Dodge because you know the answer and the answer doesn't support your preferred outcome?

I gave you a softball, and instead of answering honestly you avoided answering at all. That's not credible.

 

[Jens1893]

No, that’s posing an absurd question in the hopes of getting a response.

It isn't absurd at all. The more businesses you open, particularly those with big crowds, the bigger the chance of infections and the more infections you have, the bigger the chance that people are dying.

Whether you like it or not, but "How many deaths are acceptable/justifiable?" is the key basic question for all decisions in regards to the current crisis.

 

[Big Jim]

So, college football.........

 

[Jens1893]

That’s a different question, though.

I have no idea if opening up the parks in three months will result in COVID -19 deaths.

Unless there is a miracle vaccine/medicine, do you believe there is any chance Corona will have disappeared in 3 months?

 

[Jens1893]

So, college football.........

Just pretend we're talking about football stadiums and not amusement parks. The problem is the exact same.

 

[onealcd]

I’ll gladly risk the covid to get back to Folsom lol that is going to be seriously depressing to miss out on a full fall of beers and football in boulder.