Where we diverge is here:
But we're talking about college, where there isn't even a profit motive behind it. It's a bunch of non-profit educational institutions which sponsor sports.
It's the media companies trying to drive this into a Premier League situation and I fail to see how that works for most "owners" or for the fans of any program outside the ones that choose to sell out.
Sonny Vaccaro was the advertising executive at Nike who signed Michael Jordan to his first shoe sponsership. He also worked for Adidas and Rebok. His nickname? "The sneaker pimp."
Here's the exchange during a formal meeting /hearing of the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate athletics:
Vaccaro: “I’m not hiding. We want to put our materials on the bodies of your athletes, and the best way to do that is buy your school. Or buy your coach.”
Bryce Jordan, the president emeritus of Penn State: “Why should a university be an advertising medium for your industry?”
Vaccaro: “They shouldn’t, sir. You sold your souls, and you’re going to continue selling them. You can be very moral and righteous in asking me that question, sir, but there’s not one of you in this room that’s going to turn down any of our money. You’re going to take it. I can only offer it.”
That exchange happened over 20 years ago.
I don't think anything has fundamentally changed.
Even Phil Distephano would **** a brick and squeel like a monkey if the P5 money were under serious threat to go away - he'd tell the academic and admissions folks to get with the program and stfu if that gravy train was under serious threat.
Ultimately were in a weird path dependent place where I'm not sure there's a stable equilibrium we can get to from here.
Absent a collective bargaining agreement (which really is the only way out that I see) that includes multi - year contracts with players, and maybe, but not necessarily, collective NIL agreements, I see an expanded playoff leading to about 10 teams that basically make the playoff every year, another 5-10 that sometimes do, and maybe there's a tiny bit of churn in those 5-10.
And outside of that group of programs, it'll be mountain west levels of revenue, competitiveness, TV and stadium viewership.
And while the "all for one and one for all" attitude of some conferences is nice and all, that will change as soon as USC and Oregon say "hey guys, give us more of the money or we, and most of the money, will leave."
It would be kind of funny if a player's union and collective bargaining is what fixes college football though. Fighting the initial formation of a player's union a few years ago was a ultimately the NCAA shooting itself in the dick.